M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Fluminator]

##Vote Demon

I think me vs. Blamp is a pretty good D4

What are you doing

[President Eden]

##Vote Demon

I think me vs. Blamp is a pretty good D4

What are you doing

no one knows what it means, but it’s provocative

[Fluminator]

Wait a second. I feel like I missed a key piece of info.

Eden, you were roleblocked?

yea...

Oh.

##Vote Flum ##END

Lol, he claimed he was roleblocked earlier.

[BesharamSabi]

bona's adventures with a spreadsheet: volume 4, without a spreadsheet worth anything once again.

Bona's adventures with a spreadsheet part 3: revenge of the ISO

tl;dr:
1 (most likely) or 2 of ghuginator and NFT are scum. NFT looks very good so ghuginator is most likely a scumbo.
blamp is a cool dude
sabi is most likely town
the pyx is looking significantly worse.
brain good

based on recent flips this implies that ghuginator is town. rest looks relatively unchanged

100% on board with this post, this paragraph entirely

town!sabi sandbagging means we can't trust sabi to be putting in quality work

Quite the opposite imo. It's the lack of quality work that needs to be doubted as that is their secret to avoiding suspicion as scum. If they put in quality work I'd be very much on their side.

I admittedly am guilty of giving them a longer leash and explaining away their questionable play as just Sabi being Sabi and maybe I should shorten that leeway I give them and expect the minimum I expect from an average player and not say scummy things they do are NAI just because it's just Sabi's out of game character, let alone in-game all-alignment play.

boat man on sabi: trying to get them to reach the endgame, where undoubtably paranoid town would shoot them and lose. sabi looks good. this is a whole genre of post, so it's definitely something that scum have as a long term objective.

rdr, I'll forgive since Carnival is way better than mafia.

pyxxy seems to have just joined us so I'll see where that goes.

but where are damo, kak, bozo, and Macca?

covering for rdr, makes him look worse. could argue about this because really this is here so that i can make a big wallpost. only scum read wallposts lol

What are people's thoughts on maniac

Seems weird, but that is exactly what I thought about maniac last game. I continue to find amusement in his contraction theory even though I don't think it is particularly valid especially now that it is out there (though I will admit I was surprised that in the cases he pushed it did seem to outperform pure randomness, albeit not by enough to even come close to rule out the variation just being to natural variability.

As for the Wordle thing which I assume is what you're getting at, I think it is NAI, as albeit clever, it isn't something that is likely to dissuade someone from seriously pursuing an iso on all 10 posts of his nor would it down the line when he maybe has 100 over 5 days.

avoiding saying shit about maniac. really just encouraging people to bully maniac for not doing anything, so i think this makes maniac look better

What is everyone's thoughts on celaph?

Probably slight scum. Quick iso suggests lazy engagement with only like one or two posts I actually like namely the one where he pushed back on you regarding Jamie and his posts about Eden. The rest of his posting seems like he doesn't particularly care nor that he is trying to solve. I get that out is parents weekend but I don't think that would take him out of posting at a reasonable clip. Kak, worcej, bozo, and him would be the people I'd be most inclined to vote out.

the runup for the bussing starts early. i believe this makes the rest of the list look better because these were all the easy d1 dunks (worcej hadn't posted, bozo was posting 'ghug is mafaa', and kak was gone).

Some thoughts

Celaph - I won’t vote Celaph today.

Why aren't you willing to vote Celaph? I haven't seen anything that would make me town core them

more celaph bussing from around T-4:00 on d1

thoughts on wagons

I think complaining about my vote (or damo's for that matter) on Kak would be quite silly given that he clearly saw my post and damo's vote was also a long time ago. I think you're reading too much into Kak's town paranoia here, but I can understand why given he literally only had one real post. I don't understand why you don't seem to care at all that his response to being told to help town was basically to say lol nah and bounce and never come back. Lfischl has been more active than this and gotten more shit than Kak has.

Celaph isn't a bad wagon either, though his excuse for a lack of activity, while way worse than Carnival is also way better than Kak's so if we're killing people for weak contributions I'd rather go after Kak. Agreed that some of his posts strike me as fluffy and carefree but funnily enough not the one you mentioned.

Demon imo is actually a better wagon than Celaph but still worse than Kak, and I think you might be overcorrecting here in attempt to take out your bias.

I find Chaqa's tunneling on Sabi mildly concerning and seems like scum trying to force an easy kill on Sabi who I'm inclined to believe is town.

Right now I'm leaning towards a scum pool of like Kak, Celaph, Chaqa, Snowy, and Demon based on what I've seen D1. When someone mentioned Snowy's post count I was stunned since I found almost none of it memorable and after a quick ISO I was blown away by how un-Snowy it was. Normally he'd be much more useful by now. Don't want to kill him though as I have hopes he'll get back to normal soon.

scum DEFINITELY wanted kak to die on day 1. boat man also continues to try to get sabi to get to the endgame. I don't think scum!demon gets bussed there, especially with how boat man progesses (scumlean -> townlean -> townread), especially with some people tentatively making cases on demon while boat man is still alive.

had several posts that continued the 'keep sabi alive' thread, but they're largely redundant. this pattern continues strongly into n2

I found Chaqa's posts today to make a lot of sense and even where I disagreed I thought the motivations behind them were townie whereas before a lot of my scum read was based on him arguing in bad faith and seeming to have non townie motivations behind his argumentation. Blamp and bozo look bad for the way they disappeared around SoN which is cause for suspicion as initially brought up by Snowy. Combine that with Blamp's EoD as pointed out by Chaqa and bozo's highly suspect argumentation for someone like him and it becomes hard to place them as high as Eden does. I'm not full on scum reading blamp yet, he's more middle of the pack as I said, but I do not think it makes any sense to town read bozo here

Blamp, bozo look gud. ooga booga boat man bad. chaqa looks weird? boat man was either trying to pocket him or get scum!chak farther when the rest of the team dies.

who has rdrivera as town and why

I think most people have him as null as he was mostly gone for carnival. There is something that is pinging me as off given he seems to be making these claims about who has said what and where they must have said it that are just really easily disproven. I can't find the scum motivation behind it besides trying to push miskills and can't find a decent town explanation as rdr generally in the past was a slow thoughtful town player whose posts while infrequent had thought behind them. His recent posts had none of that clearly.

makes rdr look worse

Let's make these wagons more interesting. Still would likely prefer Celaph at EoD ##VOTE maniac.

maniac's towny factor going up hugely.

My EoN 2 reads in case I die

this has been gone over, i'm too lazy to reiterate that. go read that yourself nerds

So I think the most likely scum team to me is Celaph-Maniac-Ghug-Pyxxy

It explains D1 and D2 well with the D1 2 inactive theory met and D2 with wagon distributions, posts, and timing.

the easy dubs scumteam. His lack of consideration of deep scum makes me pretty confident that there is one.

If I die kill from Worcej, RDR, ghug, and Pyxxy

his last post. he didn't expect to die. There is most likely 1 scumbo in this list. I don't believe he puts more in that cause otherwise he's bound to try to lead some kind of wagon on them the next day (but he got pewpewed so that didn't happen) Any others (there's like 1 other? 2? i lost track somewhere around d3), necessarily, are not in this list.

tl;dr:
sabi is town who scum want in the endgame
scum wanted kak to die on d1 from around t-4 hours
maniac gud
the cej and bozo look better
ghuginator looks much better
1 scum in the cej, rdr, ghuginator, and pyxxy
there is a deep scum.

Mafia Eden
People that want me
(Alive)

[Bonatogether]

bona's adventures with a spreadsheet: volume 4, without a spreadsheet worth anything once again.

Mafia Eden
People that want me
(Alive)

i spent about 3 years scrolling to see this response

my disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined

[brainbomb]

no votes on rdrivera at all is strange as well.

[President Eden]

no votes on rdrivera at all is strange as well.

I think people are hesitant to just vote a true null.

[Chaqa]

##Vote BusinessLamp

We should have hammered

[President Eden]

Mafia Eden
People that want me
(Alive)

if you ever quote a wallpost to give a one line response again I’m policy voting you

[BesharamSabi]

Mafia Eden
People that want me
(Alive)

if you ever quote a wallpost to give a one line response again I’m policy voting you

It's three lines tho. Oklahoma education

[BusinessLamp]

##Vote BusinessLamp

We should have hammered

why are you so cocky & arrogant suddenly

[Chaqa]

##Vote BusinessLamp

We should have hammered

why are you so cocky & arrogant suddenly

Not cocky or arrogant. Impatient and bored.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Chaqa what was the significance of the roleblock question?

[President Eden]

also I’m not actually sure that rivera should be null.

with the caveat that it was rivera himself who pointed it out… not really getting theatrical vibes from his interactions with Boat. a little bit of performative behavior on the part of Boat, but nothing from rivera’s side really.

…also…

I’m basing part of my thinking on my conclusion that Maniac was just VT and not Flipper, but given this theory, rivera put his vote on Boat at a fairly crucial juncture in the wagons—about 11 hours out from EOD, when people were starting to get cold feet (myself included) about celaph and looking for a better kill. At this point Maniac isn’t meaningfully in consideration; in fact damo is the #3 wagon, and Maniac has one voter. (apparently me lol! awkward!) rivera was one of a few people who briefly pushed Boat quite a bit over the top.

it’s at this point that Maniac becomes a real counterwagon as consolidation occurs, and then Maniac and Boat are the two big wagons, with celaph a more distant third, before an EOD consolidation upon celaph swings him out in front for the kill.

the wagon dynamic there suggests to me that the mafia had conceded that celaph would die and didn’t come into the day trying to save him, but that once town started to shift interest near the end of D2, and instead Boat ends up on the block, mafia start looking for a third option. the people who start piling up on Maniac at this point are:

- Jamiet99uk
- BusinessLamp
- ghug (now Fluminator)
- Chaqa
- TheFlyingBoat
- BesharamSabi

Jamie, Sabi, and ghug end on Maniac. Chaqa, Boat and Lamp switch over to celaph as it becomes apparent that Maniac isn’t actually going to swing.

given that Boat had not used his Janitor power to this point, I’m strongly inclined to think that apart from celaph (who was a dead man walking and probably just distancing), mafia would have a strong preference not to swing TFB before getting to use his power.

this makes me think that:
(1) rivera isn’t mafia, and
(2) we have some sussy bakas among the six people I named earlier.

I think subsequent behavior exonerates Jamie and Chaqa (more the former). Boat was obviously mafia. So that leaves Lamp, ghug (now Flum), and Sabi.

[President Eden]

Mafia Eden
People that want me
(Alive)

if you ever quote a wallpost to give a one line response again I’m policy voting you

It’s three lines tho. Oklahoma education

it would have fit on one line had you not even further stretched the page by inserting arbitrary page breaks

[President Eden]

also, to add onto the vote analysis there, I don’t think there need to be multiple mafia among Flum, Lamp, and Sabi. it seems reasonable to think that one of the D1 Kak / D2 celaph voters was mafia committed to the bus once it became inevitable.

also also, this really should be pointed out in defense of ghug’s slot:

Why would scum!me bother “saving him” or avoid voting him as you have been arguing if my plan was to shade and bus him this entire time? Like it seems like it doesn’t matter to you what my position was on Celaph or what Celaph’s alignment is when it comes to your scum read on me and instead you’ll ad hoc your way to maintain the scum read no matter the facts. Care to explain why?

Save yesterday, decide to bus overnight.

That would be the most birdbrained play ever. Surely I hope y’all don’t think I’m that stupid

One of the reasons day one is so great for information is that scum haven’t talked to each other yet. Unless you’re Jamie, it makes bussing more challenging emotionally.

I just don’t like how you keep saying you’d be playing exactly a certain way if you were scum. There are too many unknowns for those hypotheticals to be useful unless you are scum.

recognizing that ghug is a crafty, sophisticated, and very experienced player who could do just about anything as mafia… this is rather an on-the-nose pressure point to make on D2.

I don’t know how exonerating it is as it could be faked, but that was a very salient observation on ghug’s part which appears to have been 100% true.

[President Eden]

yea the more I look at D2 and realize that it was more contested than I remember, the more I want to flip Lamp, Flum, and Sabi and see what happens

okay with flipping Demon too, but for different reasons, and generally less so.

worcej potentially also fits a celaph bus profile and could be on the list of flips.

but idk if rivera should be it, his interactions with Boat don’t look like partners to me, and his vote on Boat came at a rather crucial moment when it appeared the mafia agenda was to do basically anything else but let Boat die.

[BobMcBob]

Vote Count Version 4.1
BusinessLamp: (3) President Eden, bozotheclown, Chaqa
Fluminator: (2) rdrivera2005, BesharamSabi
DemonRHK: (2) brainbomb, DemonRHK
Chaqa: (1) Bonatogether
BesharamSabi: (1) BusinessLamp
Unvote: (1) Jamiet99uk

Non-votes: FLuminator, worcej, pyxxy

Currently BusinessLamp is set to be incinerated

DEADLINE IS IN 22 HOURS AND 36 MINUTES

Fact: The Burmese chicken went extinct before World War I. Except it didn't, some were found in the 1970s and crossbred with booted bantams to re-establish the breed.

[Chaqa]

@Chaqa what was the significance of the roleblock question?

I thought that Eden not being roleblocked meant that mafia wanted him to shoot Flum

[Chaqa]

I'm pretty okay with flipping Blamp and then Flum as a matter of fact.

We should determine a process for any PR claims