M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

I claim Royal Bodyguard.

##Unvote.

[DemonRHK]

I claim Royal Bodyguard.

##Unvote.

Did you get a complimentary tall furry hat?

[brainbomb]

RHK do you think flipper would prioritize signalling their team what PR they were impersonating in some / any way?

[President Eden]

last thought for now.

To The JOAT And Doc:

as tempted as I am to ask you to out your info just for the personal satisfaction of being able to solve the game, the best insurance we can have against mafia sneaking into the towncore is forcing them to kill people who aren’t mechanically clear.

right now, I fully expect to die N4. probably bozo dies N5. so on N6 and N7 — which we’re guaranteed to see no matter how poorly we kill from here — the mafia will have to make at least somewhat revealing kills. if either the JOAT or the Doc has to out with their scan/save, they no longer have to make revealing kills.

I would advise you to out your info if you or your clear is going to be miskilled, because right now it’s MUCH more important to deny the mafia viable miskills. but short of that you should stay hidden as long as possible and only out your information when it can make a large difference in how we proceed.

[Chaqa]

if it walks like a duck
quacks like a duck
and fucks like a duck

Goat and your mom?

Chaqa that's very mean.

It’s a band. I assume he’s quoting it

[brainbomb]

it makes sense rhk would claim scanning on cel n1
because then if he gets vig killed n1 he flips cop and it makes the real cop have a much rougher time claiming

[BesharamSabi]

Can we just please sink this Boat?

I guess damo being killed was less pr hunting and more the fact damo was focusing a lot on boatman. Probably used the janitor took for ??? Reasons?

[President Eden]

it makes sense rhk would claim scanning on cel n1
because then if he gets vig killed n1 he flips cop and it makes the real cop have a much rougher time claiming

it’s also leaving open the line of just brazenly powerplaying, claiming cop with an inno on the godfather to get celaph off the hook.

[DemonRHK]

RHK do you think flipper would prioritize signalling their team what PR they were impersonating in some / any way?

No, they would just wait until night or get themselves run up and expect the team to bus.

[Chaqa]

*Pokes thread*

do something

Can we hammer?

[Chaqa]

Wait a second. I feel like I missed a key piece of info.

Eden, you were roleblocked?

[Jamiet99uk]

Wait a second. I feel like I missed a key piece of info.

Eden, you were roleblocked?

He said that he was, yes.

[President Eden]

Wait a second. I feel like I missed a key piece of info.

Eden, you were roleblocked?

yea...

[Chaqa]

Wait a second. I feel like I missed a key piece of info.

Eden, you were roleblocked?

yea...

Oh.

##Vote Flum ##END

[President Eden]

Wait a second. I feel like I missed a key piece of info.

Eden, you were roleblocked?

yea…

Oh.

##Vote Flum ##END

???

[Chaqa]

yea…

Oh.

##Vote Flum ##END

???

I assume mafia, like me, thought you were the JOAT.

If that is true, they would expect you to shoot Flum. If Flum is town, they would let you.

Therefore FLum is not town.

[Bonatogether]

bona's adventures with a spreadsheet: volume 4, without a spreadsheet worth anything once again.

Bona's adventures with a spreadsheet part 3: revenge of the ISO

tl;dr:
1 (most likely) or 2 of ghuginator and NFT are scum. NFT looks very good so ghuginator is most likely a scumbo.
blamp is a cool dude
sabi is most likely town
the pyx is looking significantly worse.
brain good

based on recent flips this implies that ghuginator is town. rest looks relatively unchanged

100% on board with this post, this paragraph entirely

town!sabi sandbagging means we can't trust sabi to be putting in quality work

Quite the opposite imo. It's the lack of quality work that needs to be doubted as that is their secret to avoiding suspicion as scum. If they put in quality work I'd be very much on their side.

I admittedly am guilty of giving them a longer leash and explaining away their questionable play as just Sabi being Sabi and maybe I should shorten that leeway I give them and expect the minimum I expect from an average player and not say scummy things they do are NAI just because it's just Sabi's out of game character, let alone in-game all-alignment play.

boat man on sabi: trying to get them to reach the endgame, where undoubtably paranoid town would shoot them and lose. sabi looks good. this is a whole genre of post, so it's definitely something that scum have as a long term objective.

rdr, I'll forgive since Carnival is way better than mafia.

pyxxy seems to have just joined us so I'll see where that goes.

but where are damo, kak, bozo, and Macca?

covering for rdr, makes him look worse. could argue about this because really this is here so that i can make a big wallpost. only scum read wallposts lol

What are people's thoughts on maniac

Seems weird, but that is exactly what I thought about maniac last game. I continue to find amusement in his contraction theory even though I don't think it is particularly valid especially now that it is out there (though I will admit I was surprised that in the cases he pushed it did seem to outperform pure randomness, albeit not by enough to even come close to rule out the variation just being to natural variability.

As for the Wordle thing which I assume is what you're getting at, I think it is NAI, as albeit clever, it isn't something that is likely to dissuade someone from seriously pursuing an iso on all 10 posts of his nor would it down the line when he maybe has 100 over 5 days.

avoiding saying shit about maniac. really just encouraging people to bully maniac for not doing anything, so i think this makes maniac look better

What is everyone's thoughts on celaph?

Probably slight scum. Quick iso suggests lazy engagement with only like one or two posts I actually like namely the one where he pushed back on you regarding Jamie and his posts about Eden. The rest of his posting seems like he doesn't particularly care nor that he is trying to solve. I get that out is parents weekend but I don't think that would take him out of posting at a reasonable clip. Kak, worcej, bozo, and him would be the people I'd be most inclined to vote out.

the runup for the bussing starts early. i believe this makes the rest of the list look better because these were all the easy d1 dunks (worcej hadn't posted, bozo was posting 'ghug is mafaa', and kak was gone).

Some thoughts

Celaph - I won’t vote Celaph today.

Why aren't you willing to vote Celaph? I haven't seen anything that would make me town core them

more celaph bussing from around T-4:00 on d1

thoughts on wagons

I think complaining about my vote (or damo's for that matter) on Kak would be quite silly given that he clearly saw my post and damo's vote was also a long time ago. I think you're reading too much into Kak's town paranoia here, but I can understand why given he literally only had one real post. I don't understand why you don't seem to care at all that his response to being told to help town was basically to say lol nah and bounce and never come back. Lfischl has been more active than this and gotten more shit than Kak has.

Celaph isn't a bad wagon either, though his excuse for a lack of activity, while way worse than Carnival is also way better than Kak's so if we're killing people for weak contributions I'd rather go after Kak. Agreed that some of his posts strike me as fluffy and carefree but funnily enough not the one you mentioned.

Demon imo is actually a better wagon than Celaph but still worse than Kak, and I think you might be overcorrecting here in attempt to take out your bias.

I find Chaqa's tunneling on Sabi mildly concerning and seems like scum trying to force an easy kill on Sabi who I'm inclined to believe is town.

Right now I'm leaning towards a scum pool of like Kak, Celaph, Chaqa, Snowy, and Demon based on what I've seen D1. When someone mentioned Snowy's post count I was stunned since I found almost none of it memorable and after a quick ISO I was blown away by how un-Snowy it was. Normally he'd be much more useful by now. Don't want to kill him though as I have hopes he'll get back to normal soon.

scum DEFINITELY wanted kak to die on day 1. boat man also continues to try to get sabi to get to the endgame. I don't think scum!demon gets bussed there, especially with how boat man progesses (scumlean -> townlean -> townread), especially with some people tentatively making cases on demon while boat man is still alive.

had several posts that continued the 'keep sabi alive' thread, but they're largely redundant. this pattern continues strongly into n2

I found Chaqa's posts today to make a lot of sense and even where I disagreed I thought the motivations behind them were townie whereas before a lot of my scum read was based on him arguing in bad faith and seeming to have non townie motivations behind his argumentation. Blamp and bozo look bad for the way they disappeared around SoN which is cause for suspicion as initially brought up by Snowy. Combine that with Blamp's EoD as pointed out by Chaqa and bozo's highly suspect argumentation for someone like him and it becomes hard to place them as high as Eden does. I'm not full on scum reading blamp yet, he's more middle of the pack as I said, but I do not think it makes any sense to town read bozo here

Blamp, bozo look gud. ooga booga boat man bad. chaqa looks weird? boat man was either trying to pocket him or get scum!chak farther when the rest of the team dies.

who has rdrivera as town and why

I think most people have him as null as he was mostly gone for carnival. There is something that is pinging me as off given he seems to be making these claims about who has said what and where they must have said it that are just really easily disproven. I can't find the scum motivation behind it besides trying to push miskills and can't find a decent town explanation as rdr generally in the past was a slow thoughtful town player whose posts while infrequent had thought behind them. His recent posts had none of that clearly.

makes rdr look worse

Let's make these wagons more interesting. Still would likely prefer Celaph at EoD ##VOTE maniac.

maniac's towny factor going up hugely.

My EoN 2 reads in case I die

this has been gone over, i'm too lazy to reiterate that. go read that yourself nerds

So I think the most likely scum team to me is Celaph-Maniac-Ghug-Pyxxy

It explains D1 and D2 well with the D1 2 inactive theory met and D2 with wagon distributions, posts, and timing.

the easy dubs scumteam. His lack of consideration of deep scum makes me pretty confident that there is one.

If I die kill from Worcej, RDR, ghug, and Pyxxy

his last post. he didn't expect to die. There is most likely 1 scumbo in this list. I don't believe he puts more in that cause otherwise he's bound to try to lead some kind of wagon on them the next day (but he got pewpewed so that didn't happen) Any others (there's like 1 other? 2? i lost track somewhere around d3), necessarily, are not in this list.

tl;dr:
sabi is town who scum want in the endgame
scum wanted kak to die on d1 from around t-4 hours
maniac gud
the cej and bozo look better
ghuginator looks much better
1 scum in the cej, rdr, ghuginator, and pyxxy
there is a deep scum.

[Fluminator]

I skimmed ghug's ISO finally, didn't get much from it.
I do agree with his take that Celaph was likely bussed, especially with TFB being scum.

Celaph seems quite uncertain about his scum skills and I definitely see him volunteering to die and be bussed in a nightchat. I don't think I've seen TFB play as scum before but from what I know of him, he would want to keep playing.

That leads me to think if he was bussed, it would be players who weren't on him in day 1, but joined on day 2.

That leaves
pyxxy worcej BusinessLamp TheFlyingBoat (TFB doesn't really count)

I think the TFB voters on day 2 look a little better? Scum bus to get credit. I have no idea how close or tense that eod was, but voting scum while simultaneously looking bad after is not something that happens ideally. Honestly this eod is rich I might try to read it more closely to see if there's some more juicy context.

So that is
bozotheclown rdrivera2005 celaph Maniac Chaqa President Eden that look better.
Celaph doesn't count obv. Chaqa and Eden are almost certainly town. Maniac is probably town and Jamiet is probably a dick. Bozo is probably a clear. So Rdr is the only unknown right now here and this honestly makes Rdr look a little better imo.

Jamiet/Sabi/Ghug were on a vanity wagon, and I think they'd take the certain credit of a scum kill. This makes Sabi look a little better too.

So pyxxy, worcej, business lamp would be who I look for based on objective VCA not knowing the full contexts. I'll go deeper into blamp next, and then check pyxxy and worcej after.

[President Eden]

Oh.

##Vote Flum ##END

???

I assume mafia, like me, thought you were the JOAT.

If that is true, they would expect you to shoot Flum. If Flum is town, they would let you.

Therefore FLum is not town.

oh. no, sorry, I think this reasoning is flawed.

(1) you are overly relying on your position that I was probably JOAT, which is ultimately rooted in your unnecessarily strong prior that I would not, as Cop, soft my bozo scan the way I did. it’s pretty clear to me from how mafia used their roleblock since that they never felt much reason to doubt my claims. so I don’t think the mafia’s choice to roleblock was predicated on a belief I was JOAT. BUT…

(2) if your theory is right that they believed me to be the JOAT and shot me last night (which was Doc saved), then by roleblocking me they also prevent a town-directed kill, which is good for mafia. they would do this no matter Flum’s alignment, because it would force us to spend a day hanging Flum instead of spending a night shooting him. this not only delays our receipt of Flum’s flip, but it also denies us a kill down the road.

the main takeaway from the rb info, to me, is that the mafia were unconcerned with Jamie’s fake check on Maniac, which means that Maniac was likely town. once Maniac flipped VT instead of Miller, the jig was up from the mafia’s POV.

[Fluminator]

i know it’s wifom but there’s an absolutely zero percent chance I actively vote to save celaph d1 if I were mafia. I’m more a cut bait and don’t go down with the ship guy lol. Flum can attest maybe based on my survivor play lmfao

You are admittedly a psychopath in some games. I don't think you'd go out of your way to kill him either though.

Can you give me a summary of the game from you're point of view? Has it been as fun as your last game?