M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[DemonRHK]

I think VT was probably the best option for the flipper to choose, because any other role would be resolved when the real PR/miller was revealed. In order for town to win, we are going to have to hit the flipper, so we are going to be dealing with inaccurate information at some point unless we lose with the flipper surviving.

Regardless of Maniac's alignment, TFB, ghug, and Sabi are all good scum candidates, so I think they all should be voted out at some point. They all independently tried to save celaph on D1 and D2. It could be just that simple.

VT is/was one of the bottom tier flipper choices. So what? We're doubting remaining scum number? Ooooooo.

Flum and Sabi answer the most questions. After that it depends on how the NKs play out. I expect Jamie is going to be a very sad boy and a lot of people are going to fail to put the logic together when he inevitably wakes up.

[bozotheclown]

This is very rudimentary wagon analysis with no context, but the people who never voted Celaph at eod are:

Sabi
Bozo
Jamiet
Rdr

Jamiet and apparently Bozo are currently better assumed as town right now I think.

Sabi and Rdr, what be your defenses?

ghug also never voted for celaph.

Can you tell me what you think about TFB's voting record, considering he was a wagon D1 and D2?

[BesharamSabi]

This is very rudimentary wagon analysis with no context, but the people who never voted Celaph at eod are:

Sabi
Bozo
Jamiet
Rdr

Jamiet and apparently Bozo are currently better assumed as town right now I think.

Sabi and Rdr, what be your defenses?

For D2? I put my vote in and was gone for EOD because I was in a client meeting from 230ish-5ish central time.

I explained my D1 like a few pages ago.

[BesharamSabi]

I think VT was probably the best option for the flipper to choose, because any other role would be resolved when the real PR/miller was revealed. In order for town to win, we are going to have to hit the flipper, so we are going to be dealing with inaccurate information at some point unless we lose with the flipper surviving.

Regardless of Maniac's alignment, TFB, ghug, and Sabi are all good scum candidates, so I think they all should be voted out at some point. They all independently tried to save celaph on D1 and D2. It could be just that simple.

Bozo you are not a clear either.

I don't mind being voted out. I'm VT. When I die you will see that. (or I guess Miller)

[Bonatogether]

Fine I got the message. I'm shutting up.

Let's talk about Bonatogether.

Doesn't he seem rather under the radar today?

I left my phone at home today. Webdip is blocked at school, so couldn't use the school computers. Then I went and did some stuff with my sister for my old neighbor who broke her arms. I'm catching up now

[BesharamSabi]

@flum

http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/ ... 54#p292954

http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/ ... 45#p292745

[TheFlyingBoat]

I think VT was probably the best option for the flipper to choose, because any other role would be resolved when the real PR/miller was revealed. In order for town to win, we are going to have to hit the flipper, so we are going to be dealing with inaccurate information at some point unless we lose with the flipper surviving.

Regardless of Maniac's alignment, TFB, ghug, and Sabi are all good scum candidates, so I think they all should be voted out at some point. They all independently tried to save celaph on D1 and D2. It could be just that simple.

In what world did I try to save Celaph D2? Do you not read my posts or explanations? Do you have your blinders on so tight you can't see any alternate possibilities? Occam's razor exists for a reason. Chaqa literally did the exact same thing I did for the exact same motivations, because it was the smart thing to do. I maintain a 6-6-5 EoD that ended the way it did gave us way more info than the Celaph vs me 9-8 all day you seem to have wanted.

It made Chaqa look incredibly good to me, made Blamp look better than he otherwise would have, gave possible scum targets given what we know about maniac. If we had done what you wanted, far too many town would have been able to get away with the defense pyxxy invoked for his vote on me at the end had his vote got in a few seconds earlier as we would have lost a day of good discussion and let multiple scum escape easily.

I think the overall narrative explanation (which you never bothered to engage with) I gave for who is scum and who isn't is explains the wagon actions of D1 and D2 far better than your list. I think it's possible there were some scum on the maniac wagon D2 before it melted away. Jamie strikes me as the obvious possibility if you assume that Maniac is not the flipper. Ghug strikes me as the likely possibility if you assume that Maniac is the flipper.

[bozotheclown]

I think VT was probably the best option for the flipper to choose, because any other role would be resolved when the real PR/miller was revealed. In order for town to win, we are going to have to hit the flipper, so we are going to be dealing with inaccurate information at some point unless we lose with the flipper surviving.

Regardless of Maniac's alignment, TFB, ghug, and Sabi are all good scum candidates, so I think they all should be voted out at some point. They all independently tried to save celaph on D1 and D2. It could be just that simple.

Bozo you are not a clear either.

I don't mind being voted out. I'm VT. When I die you will see that. (or I guess Miller)

I am clear in my own mind.

Maybe you are the flipper who chose VT.

[Fluminator]

This is very rudimentary wagon analysis with no context, but the people who never voted Celaph at eod are:

Sabi
Bozo
Jamiet
Rdr

Jamiet and apparently Bozo are currently better assumed as town right now I think.

Sabi and Rdr, what be your defenses?

ghug also never voted for celaph.

Can you tell me what you think about TFB's voting record, considering he was a wagon D1 and D2?

He voted Maniac instead though who is probably scum. Ghug is looking cleaner and cleaner

TFB looked to barely be a wagon end of day 1. I'm a little sad I missed an opportunity to run him up day 1 though.

Second day being the counterwagon lessens the cred for sure, but I have a hard time believing right now all 3 wagons would be scum.

[BesharamSabi]

I think VT was probably the best option for the flipper to choose, because any other role would be resolved when the real PR/miller was revealed. In order for town to win, we are going to have to hit the flipper, so we are going to be dealing with inaccurate information at some point unless we lose with the flipper surviving.

Regardless of Maniac's alignment, TFB, ghug, and Sabi are all good scum candidates, so I think they all should be voted out at some point. They all independently tried to save celaph on D1 and D2. It could be just that simple.

Bozo you are not a clear either.

I don't mind being voted out. I'm VT. When I die you will see that. (or I guess Miller)

I am clear in my own mind.

Maybe you are the flipper who chose VT.

So then Maniac is clear and Jamiet is scum based off that logic....?

[Bonatogether]

pyxxy: Scumpool

The attempt to save celaph either by tying or last minute getting me killed strikes me as highly suspicious now that we know Celaph is the god father.

Did you miss my explanation or (more reasonably) do you not believe it?

Yes, but what the fuck was that?

I was wavering for most of the last hour (while also playing in the FB speedboat bot game so half focused) and I wanted it off my conscience if Celaph flipped town. I figured I was safe at 9-5-3 to change and make it 8-6-3.

I didn't know that the bot vote totals can be wrong? And that only gm vote totals are actually accurate? And as you can see, my post was too late and I didn't refresh stuff so I didn't know that the vote moved to 8-6-3 and that I would have tied the vote.

I also don't know what happens if the vote ties, but at this point no one is going to believe that I'm asking that question honestly

I also still don't know what happens if the vote ties...

JKJKJK

notably responding to boat man but not me

[Fluminator]

This is very rudimentary wagon analysis with no context, but the people who never voted Celaph at eod are:

Sabi
Bozo
Jamiet
Rdr

Jamiet and apparently Bozo are currently better assumed as town right now I think.

Sabi and Rdr, what be your defenses?

For D2? I put my vote in and was gone for EOD because I was in a client meeting from 230ish-5ish central time.

I explained my D1 like a few pages ago.

Is that really your defense for D2 after what happened yesterday with Maniac?

[President Eden]

I think VT was probably the best option for the flipper to choose, because any other role would be resolved when the real PR/miller was revealed. In order for town to win, we are going to have to hit the flipper, so we are going to be dealing with inaccurate information at some point unless we lose with the flipper surviving.

Regardless of Maniac's alignment, TFB, ghug, and Sabi are all good scum candidates, so I think they all should be voted out at some point. They all independently tried to save celaph on D1 and D2. It could be just that simple.

as I’m thinking about this puzzle more, maybe you are right. while VT is very “passive” in that it doesn’t let mafia make any plays, the deceptive power is pretty apparent here. we only have a good shot at working through it because of Jamie’s scan, but it even has added value there by creating some doubt about Jamie (however slight it seems to be, judging from everyone’s reactions) which could potentially be WIFOMed out.

whereas if the Flipper chooses anything else, then eventually you end up with an extra dead role that shouldn’t be there, and the deception is largely lifted.

[BusinessLamp]

I think VT was probably the best option for the flipper to choose, because any other role would be resolved when the real PR/miller was revealed. In order for town to win, we are going to have to hit the flipper, so we are going to be dealing with inaccurate information at some point unless we lose with the flipper surviving.

Regardless of Maniac's alignment, TFB, ghug, and Sabi are all good scum candidates, so I think they all should be voted out at some point. They all independently tried to save celaph on D1 and D2. It could be just that simple.

VT is/was one of the bottom tier flipper choices. So what? We're doubting remaining scum number? Ooooooo.

Flum and Sabi answer the most questions. After that it depends on how the NKs play out. I expect Jamie is going to be a very sad boy and a lot of people are going to fail to put the logic together when he inevitably wakes up.

VT is only bad because he got out because of a guilty report. I feel like that’s really unfortunate for scum. Otherwise it would’ve thrown all the logic off of Maniac was voted out yesterday

[Bonatogether]

Flavour is for losers.

...


.......


..........

MANIAC HAS DIED. HE WAS A VANILLA TOWNIE.

NIGHT HAS BEGUN YOU MAY NOW POST

man what? that's some funny shit

[bozotheclown]

I think VT was probably the best option for the flipper to choose, because any other role would be resolved when the real PR/miller was revealed. In order for town to win, we are going to have to hit the flipper, so we are going to be dealing with inaccurate information at some point unless we lose with the flipper surviving.

Regardless of Maniac's alignment, TFB, ghug, and Sabi are all good scum candidates, so I think they all should be voted out at some point. They all independently tried to save celaph on D1 and D2. It could be just that simple.

In what world did I try to save Celaph D2? Do you not read my posts or explanations? Do you have your blinders on so tight you can't see any alternate possibilities? Occam's razor exists for a reason. Chaqa literally did the exact same thing I did for the exact same motivations, because it was the smart thing to do. I maintain a 6-6-5 EoD that ended the way it did gave us way more info than the Celaph vs me 9-8 all day you seem to have wanted.

It made Chaqa look incredibly good to me, made Blamp look better than he otherwise would have, gave possible scum targets given what we know about maniac. If we had done what you wanted, far too many town would have been able to get away with the defense pyxxy invoked for his vote on me at the end had his vote got in a few seconds earlier as we would have lost a day of good discussion and let multiple scum escape easily.

I think the overall narrative explanation (which you never bothered to engage with) I gave for who is scum and who isn't is explains the wagon actions of D1 and D2 far better than your list. I think it's possible there were some scum on the maniac wagon D2 before it melted away. Jamie strikes me as the obvious possibility if you assume that Maniac is not the flipper. Ghug strikes me as the likely possibility if you assume that Maniac is the flipper.

Chaqa would have had to be hard bussing celaph D1 and D2, which is possible but not very likely, while you avoided voting for celaph D1 and encouraged the Maniac wagon D2 by your vote and did not return to celaph until he was back in the lead and had the momentum with only 5 minutes left.

[Fluminator]

This is very rudimentary wagon analysis with no context, but the people who never voted Celaph at eod are:

Sabi
Bozo
Jamiet
Rdr

Jamiet and apparently Bozo are currently better assumed as town right now I think.

Sabi and Rdr, what be your defenses?

For D2? I put my vote in and was gone for EOD because I was in a client meeting from 230ish-5ish central time.

I explained my D1 like a few pages ago.

Is that really your defense for D2 after what happened yesterday with Maniac?

I'm a little confused your first reaction to the flip is Jamiet is scum.
I could see someone thinking that, but considering you voted Maniac day 2 before it was cool, you probably thought he was scum initially. I would expect your first gut feeling to be Maniac was flipper, not Jamiet was scum.
Can you clarify more where you're coming from?

[Bonatogether]

I mean, one of two things must inherently be true:
1. Jamie is mafia and was lying about the copscan (in this case Jamie is probably Flipper and was hoping he'd get lucky on picking Maniac as Miller)
2. Maniac was the Flipper who picked VT

shouldn't it be:
1. Jamie is mafia and trying to bait us into thinking that maniac was flipper? in this theory, scum are very sure that damo was an investigative pr, and with town dancing around it, jamie could live there for a while.
2. same thing?

[Fluminator]

also the bot still thinks it's day 3

[pyxxy]

What was the thing regarding pxxy about the flipper thing that has people townreading him?

the only thing I remember is that damo made a note about pyxxy being town but something about a flipper

One selection from http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?wo ... t=D2-&g=73:

I'd vote Ghug but I also like voting for Maniac.

Jamie and I in lockstep. brain needs to accept pyxxy into his towncore and together we all flourish

Pixxy comes across as pretty town to me so far, not sure the basis for Brainbomb's scumread there.

Jamie seems to be my biggest advocate that's awkward

Blamp used to love me but then we had a scuffle around my TFB quote fuckup and my questioning of his voting timings.