M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

true

there’s a pretty rough exchange which we’re led to believe resulted in him subbing out, wherein he acts like he’s scared to discuss game issues with me cuz of that argument we had 3 months ago (which he’s never brought up since, until today), but then takes the exact kind of needless personal potshots that would result in the fighting he allegedly wants to avoid. it very much came off to me like I nailed him and he figured he could push my buttons enough to make me blow up and get people to ignore my points. but it backfired

I will read the case later but I do know ghug was genuinely hurt by whatever happened 3 months ago. (He's mentioned it outside the game to me before)
I do not fully understand what is going on between you two tbh.

I can’t 100% speak for eden, but I can say his tone does not translate to text well. I don’t really remember what happened three months ago, but in various discussions I’ve had with eden where ghug has come up, it’s never been a discussion point, so I wonder if eden is even aware of this issue

[Maniac]

So there is no appeal from me to save my sorry ass.

The only two explanations right now are I’m the miller and Jamie really does have a guilty scan or I’m VT and Jamie is running some kind of play as town and believes I’m scum so much that he is banking on me flipping scum to fool mafia that he had a scan. Maybe that would’ve worked if I was scum, but I’m not.

I think no matter what I flip Jamie is now town.

I don’t understand why people are asking investigators for N2 scans. That’s just dumb.

If I had to go out on a limb, scum are Brainbomb, DemonDHK, maybe TFB.

You need to kill me now. Too many people are factoring in that I’m scum before my flip and wasting time on analysing wagons based on false information.

I don’t blame any of you for ending the life of this handsome and innocent man.

Thanks for GMing Bob and Durge. I’ve enjoyed my time as a chicken.

This is one of those rare times that a VT should keep fighting. Towns wincon is actually advanced by my self voting.

##vote Maniac ##vote End

[Maniac]

*shouldn’t keep fighting

[Jamiet99uk]

Checking in very briefly. I'm speaking at an academic conference at 10am so my time is very limited.

I see you are all voting Maniac which is nice. Thanks for your support.

Maniac is right about one thing: People asking for N2 scans to be declared are either foolish or scummy. There are two investigative roles and one of them only gets a single scan. Demands for N2 scans could be Mafia attempting to sort the Cop from the JOAT, and/or trying to check if their Roleblock hit a target that would get a "fail" message if Roleblocked. Leave it to the investigative roles to declare their results as and when they judge best...

[Maniac]

I’m so looking forward to future games by the way. Everytime someone says ‘Maniac is lock-on scum’ I’ll bring up this game. Brainbomb even has me coloured red before my flip. Oh how many times will that be mentioned in future games?…

[BobMcBob]

For the bot:
DAMO HAS DIED

[BobMcBob]

Vote Count 3.1
Maniac: (10) Bonatogether*, TheFlyingBoat, brainbomb*, Jamiet99uk, President Eden, Chaqa*, bozotheclown, pyxxy, BusinessLamp, Maniac*
Fluminator: (1) DemonRHK*

End-votes: Maniac (5), Fluminator (1)
8 end-votes needed to end day early

Currently Maniac is set to be subject to that thing where Julius Caesar was stabbed a bunch of times, but with beaks

Fact: The number of times Julius Caesar was stabbed was 23.

[BobMcBob]

DAMO HAS DIED. HE WAS SMOOSHED TO A PULP

[rdrivera2005]

@Jamiet - You keep your claim to have a guilty on Maniac? I confess I thought it could have been just a way to try to bait the NK.

[rdrivera2005]

##vote Maniac

[BobMcBob]

Hold up I found the issue lol:
DAMO666 HAS DIED. HE WAS

[bozotheclown]

posting.php?mode=quote&f=4&p=293660

maniac's interactions with him don't make sense if he's scum

Which ones?

read the post lol

Sorry, I did not pay attention to the link. What you pointed out could be explained by Maniac distancing himself from TFB.

[TheFlyingBoat]

My EoN 2 reads in case I die

ghug: Scumpool

I have been mildly wary of ghug given that I expected to do a lot more for town. I've mentioned this in other games, thought kept quiet about it this one to watch, and probably would have waited one more day to say something if not for this sub kerfuffle, but ghug is certainly a player likely to go open wolfing as scum. I called him being scum in the god thread because of the way he generated miskills along with damo (due to his blatant scum slip), though I admittedly missed hard on DL8, but I digress.

The important part of this is that ghug's game there reminded me a lot of his game here with the biggest difference that it hasn't worked as well with a more competent town. D1 he seemed to subtly protect Celaph while pushing me, RHK, and Kak. D2 he aggressively pushes me to try and save celaph.

I don't think the desire to sub or his emotional reaction are scummy though. I think this drama has been hashed out multiple times here on the forum and on discord before the game started so I don't think this is some manufactured issue. I think both of y'all need to calm down and find a way not to provoke each other to keep D3 useful if the sub doesn't happen.

Maniac: Scumpool

Already hashed out a billion times

pyxxy: Scumpool

The attempt to save celaph either by tying or last minute getting me killed strikes me as highly suspicious now that we know Celaph is the god father. Perhaps he got cold feet on the bus when he realized there was a chance to save the godfather and as a new forum mafia player didn't understand the follow on effects of that decision? Regardless, that vote looks highly suspect. Celaph's strong defense of him could point to a pocket attempt of a newbie or an effort to save scum. Normally I would lean the former, but part of me thinks the latter under the hope of being able to coach him as pyxxy is clearly a smart new player.

His other posts and hunting strike me as smart new town as well. I would say this is my weakest scum read despite that vote behavior being pretty scummy

rdrivera2005: Scumpool

Post-carnival I'd expect a much higher quality of analysis from RDR. I found his posts lazy, ad hoc, and illogical. Felt like he didn't care really if he were right or wrong and was just going through the motions in an attempt to survive rather than contribute.

worcej: Scumpool

I feel like this is scum trying to setup a miskill on me again. Worcej in his mentions of me during D2 seems to heavily imply that he was looking at late unexplained shifters onto to Kak as the primary source of scum targets if celaph flipped scum. He says these are the people he wants to look at. He also indicated earlier in that post he found my votes easily explainable.

Maniac moves to Kak
Celaph moves to Kak - self-saving IMHO
Chaqa moves to Celaph - once again tying the vote...
Bozo moves to Kak
Blamp moves to Kak
Jamie moves to Kak

However, now in the night where we have celaph as known scum we have blamp sailing high without much explanation, me at the bottom with Jamie and Sabi which makes no sense given his prior explanations. To me it seems like he's just lazily aggregating reads by others and tossing them together into a mix without much thought at all and calling a day and hoping no one notices.

So since we have Maniac scanned, let's talk about D4 so we don't waste valuable time and get into the rut that I think cost us last game. Here's the scum pool I made at EoN 2. Let's see how their behavior explains EoD1 and what assumptions would be made/contradicted.

Let's start with the easy ones:

Worcej: DNP, wasn't fully subbed in. Macca got flooded in the land down under. Nothing to really read here

RDR: Busy with Carnival, did not vote. Nothing to really read here either.

So then we have ghug, Maniac, and Pyxxy.

Ghug cast a vote for Bozo at 5:38 left to go in the phase and did not return for the rest of the day. Not sure what to read from this as either he would have had zero idea celaph was ever under pressure before EoD or he was silently watching and chose not to do anything to alter that dynamic. If the former he could be either scum or town, if the latter I find it hard to believe scum!Ghug lets Celaph die without getting credit for it, so he either busses Celaph there or saves him imo.

Pyx ties it up between Kak and Eden as the two big wagons. Interesting, but doesn't tell me much. His vote also stays there for another 2:18 as he does not return.

Maniac very visibly tries to save Celaph, starting with leading a wagon on me and moving with 3 minutes left to Kak (which breaks the tie) with the only explanation being he liked Celaph, but never a good explanation why (and it is hard to sell me on the idea there was enough good in his posting D1 to make him townie #1. Celaph tries to get a counter wagon to kill me instead but joins Maniac and also votes with three minutes left on Kak to increase the lead to two immediately after, seemingly realize he couldn't shift the kill onto me (who was active and scum reading him) and opting for Kak for self-preservation.

This EoD is what makes me want to reconsider/expand my scumpool a bit, since I feel like there is likely to be one scum among the three who moved to break the tie that arose after Chaqa flipped back to Celaph. That would be Bozo (scanned town), BLamp (otherwise a slight townread), or Jamie (who just claimed town pr). At that point we're looking at something like Celaph-Maniac-Blamp+one of three inactive.

Either that or it becomes Celaph-Maniac+2 of 4 EoD inactives or Celaph-Maniac+1 inactive+1 celaph busser which isn't impossible either and honestly would make sense from a distribution PoV, but I generally like the celaph D1ers posts so I'll discard that possibility for now.

For reference EOD inactive in my scumpool list: Worcej, RDR, ghug, and Pyxxy

D2

Final Vote Count Day 2
celaph: (8) DemonRHK, Bonatogether, pyxxy, worcej, brainbomb, BusinessLamp, TheFlyingBoat, damo666
TheFlyingBoat: (7) bozotheclown, rdrivera2005, celaph, Maniac, Chaqa, President Eden, ghug
Maniac: (2) Jamiet99uk, BesharamSabi

Blue=Voted for Celaph D1 Orange=Cop Scan Scum

If I had to guess, I'd lean a 3-1 split on my wagon vs Celaph. A 4-0 seems doubtful as I just don't think scum would be so bold after C. A 1-2-1 seems doubtful as that would require Sabi to be scum given Jamie's claim and I just don't buy that Sabi is scum.

Who looks good who looks bad here?

EOD is really set when at 1:12 remaining, brain sets the vote to 6-6-5, giving us as close to a tie we can get with only major wagons. After that, the only vote movements for a whole hour is Ghug switching from Maniac to Chaqa and then Chaqa to Maniac again, which brings us back to the same 6-6-5 we were at after brain's vote.

The real EOD moves around the <5-6 minute mark with me, Chaqa, and Blamp all moving at basically the same time to kill Celaph. Those votes look exceptionally good to me in context.

A few minutes later seeing the danger Celaph is in, I see ghug moving into save Celaph while trying to cash in on the shading he's done of me since the very beginning of the day to make it 8-7 (note the bot is wrong here). Part of me wonders if ghug intentionally voted in a way the bot wouldn't catch, but I am not sure of the motivation.

After that damo makes it 9-6 by switching from to Celaph, which proves important after both Chaqa switches onto me to make it 8-7 and eden does a weird forward and backward switch. Pyxxy then tries to sneak in a last second vote perhaps seeing opportunity in Chaqa's vote. I think pyxxy being told in the night chat to bus celaph to boost his town cred, but calling a last second audible to try and save the godfather in hopes that one more day could lead to something good (scum cop scan, town scan of celaph, etc.) would be a plausible explanation for why he might do it.

So I think the most likely scum team to me is Celaph-Maniac-Ghug-Pyxxy

It explains D1 and D2 well with the D1 2 inactive theory met and D2 with wagon distributions, posts, and timing.

[BesharamSabi]

true

there’s a pretty rough exchange which we’re led to believe resulted in him subbing out, wherein he acts like he’s scared to discuss game issues with me cuz of that argument we had 3 months ago (which he’s never brought up since, until today), but then takes the exact kind of needless personal potshots that would result in the fighting he allegedly wants to avoid. it very much came off to me like I nailed him and he figured he could push my buttons enough to make me blow up and get people to ignore my points. but it backfired

I will read the case later but I do know ghug was genuinely hurt by whatever happened 3 months ago. (He's mentioned it outside the game to me before)
I do not fully understand what is going on between you two tbh.

I can’t 100% speak for eden, but I can say his tone does not translate to text well. I don’t really remember what happened three months ago, but in various discussions I’ve had with eden where ghug has come up, it’s never been a discussion point, so I wonder if eden is even aware of this issue

Can confirm that ghug brought up several times about the fight outside of the game so its NAI. I do think it's a tone deaf move by eden to think it's some scummy tactic

[BesharamSabi]

What did you all do to Sabi? This is why I asked for a game summary

Nothing in just super emotional and not mentally well. Big time regret signing up for this but I can't sub out because I don't want someone to swing the poor person that has to sub into my spot.

[BesharamSabi]

Theres a difference between saying you're an idiot and this theory is bad.

Just saying.

[President Eden]

true

there’s a pretty rough exchange which we’re led to believe resulted in him subbing out, wherein he acts like he’s scared to discuss game issues with me cuz of that argument we had 3 months ago (which he’s never brought up since, until today), but then takes the exact kind of needless personal potshots that would result in the fighting he allegedly wants to avoid. it very much came off to me like I nailed him and he figured he could push my buttons enough to make me blow up and get people to ignore my points. but it backfired

I will read the case later but I do know ghug was genuinely hurt by whatever happened 3 months ago. (He's mentioned it outside the game to me before)
I do not fully understand what is going on between you two tbh.

well, in this game at least,
• I see what I think is suspicious behavior from ghug
• I question him on it and find the answers unsatisfying
• I present case, which receives only surface-level response that does nothing to change my opinion that he is mafia
• Game progresses without anything happening on this front
• I send some emojis in response to something brain says that’s not addressed to ghug in the slightest
• ghug dredges this incident up out of nowhere—in his own comically biased way which, as per usual for ghug, acknowledges his blame in it precisely 0%, presumes all of his grievances to be the only ones which matter and gives precisely zero consideration to the other side—as an attack on not only me personally but also the credibility of the Council
• believing this to be a mafia play and in bad faith regardless, I very specifically do not rise to the bait and call it out as such
• he continues on, getting angrier and angrier, despite me having done absolutely nothing to him here, until he subs out.

put yourself in my shoes.

from my perspective multiple players, ghug included, were being rather toxic to me at the start of M71, completely unprovoked by me. I concededly could have handled it better. but that wasn’t all on me in the slightest. ghug did not talk to me about the incident and gave no unambiguous indication that he cared (he referenced it in the M71 thread a few times in a manner which plausibly could have just been mafia seeking support via emotional appeal).

apparently I’m just magically supposed to know despite never once being told anything that he actually carried a lot of resentment for 3 months, and that when it explodes in a way that’s both not clearly following from any provocation on my part and with timing that would be very tactically chosen if he were mafia, that no actually he is town and his extremely bad faith attack is coming from town.

I increasingly feel ghug puts me in no-win situations where he feels entitled to be as shitty to me as he wants, but if I should ever cross him or wound him then I’ve committed the gravest sin one could commit. say what you will about M71; I feel his take is appallingly biased and lacking in self-awareness, but that’s whatever. my behavior toward him in this game has been absolutely unimpeachable. I have not attacked him personally. I have not accused him unfairly. I have specifically chosen not to escalate his totally unjustified attacks to avoid a repeat of past games’ drama. At this point I’m completely out of options for how to handle it.

[President Eden]

I will read the case later but I do know ghug was genuinely hurt by whatever happened 3 months ago. (He's mentioned it outside the game to me before)
I do not fully understand what is going on between you two tbh.

I can’t 100% speak for eden, but I can say his tone does not translate to text well. I don’t really remember what happened three months ago, but in various discussions I’ve had with eden where ghug has come up, it’s never been a discussion point, so I wonder if eden is even aware of this issue

Can confirm that ghug brought up several times about the fight outside of the game so its NAI. I do think it's a tone deaf move by eden to think it's some scummy tactic

it’s curious that you think it’s tone deaf when I have no knowledge of any of this discussion or of his alignment.

knowing that I don’t know about the discussion and bearing in mind the “uneven” progression, to put it diplomatically, why would you expect me to instantly read him town and think he’s acting in good faith? that presupposes an awful lot about his alignment, IMO.

[BesharamSabi]

I can’t 100% speak for eden, but I can say his tone does not translate to text well. I don’t really remember what happened three months ago, but in various discussions I’ve had with eden where ghug has come up, it’s never been a discussion point, so I wonder if eden is even aware of this issue

Can confirm that ghug brought up several times about the fight outside of the game so its NAI. I do think it's a tone deaf move by eden to think it's some scummy tactic

it’s curious that you think it’s tone deaf when I have no knowledge of any of this discussion or of his alignment.

knowing that I don’t know about the discussion and bearing in mind the “uneven” progression, to put it diplomatically, why would you expect me to instantly read him town and think he’s acting in good faith? that presupposes an awful lot about his alignment, IMO.

Not put him as town but don't wave him bringing up the fight as a reason he's scummy. Bringing up the fight is NAI.

You two just need to communicate.

[President Eden]

true

there’s a pretty rough exchange which we’re led to believe resulted in him subbing out, wherein he acts like he’s scared to discuss game issues with me cuz of that argument we had 3 months ago (which he’s never brought up since, until today), but then takes the exact kind of needless personal potshots that would result in the fighting he allegedly wants to avoid. it very much came off to me like I nailed him and he figured he could push my buttons enough to make me blow up and get people to ignore my points. but it backfired

I will read the case later but I do know ghug was genuinely hurt by whatever happened 3 months ago. (He's mentioned it outside the game to me before)
I do not fully understand what is going on between you two tbh.

I can’t 100% speak for eden, but I can say his tone does not translate to text well. I don’t really remember what happened three months ago, but in various discussions I’ve had with eden where ghug has come up, it’s never been a discussion point, so I wonder if eden is even aware of this issue

this is true. on the point of tone, this is something that bothers me because I feel I go out of my way to be painstakingly clear about what I think. if I were mad at ghug and trying to bully him out of the game, you’d know it. I feel I very plainly stayed calm and collected and did not make it personal. you’d have to go very far out of your way to read anything else into it and come away with a contrary interpretation. and if you do that, that can’t possibly be on me. how the fuck am I supposed to account for people adding in emotion I don’t feel to reach a conclusion I don’t hold, which runs contrary to the things I did say? I feel like I’m held to this impossible standard where at all times I’m expected to know exactly what everyone is really thinking and feeling and be able to predict every last way they’re possibly going to respond and if I ever get anything wrong then it’s not just an error but an indictment of me as a person. it’s really exhausting and nobody here even comes close to living up to that, so why do I have to?