M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

road map for the game:

• resolve Maniac/Lamp situation, get a mafia very likely
• flip ghug get a mafia
• figure out what to do with Jamie, Boat, rivera, and worcej
• if we resolved all those alignments and the game isn’t over, PANIK

I sign up to this plan.

[DemonRHK]

road map for the game:

• resolve Maniac/Lamp situation, get a mafia very likely
• flip ghug get a mafia
• figure out what to do with Jamie, Boat, rivera, and worcej
• if we resolved all those alignments and the game isn’t over, PANIK

I sign up to this plan.

No plan survives first contact with the enemy, but I am on board and see where we end up after step 2.

[Bonatogether]

road map for the game:

• resolve Maniac/Lamp situation, get a mafia very likely
• flip ghug get a mafia
• figure out what to do with Jamie, Boat, rivera, and worcej
• if we resolved all those alignments and the game isn’t over, PANIK

on board with this but would add sabi to #3

[worcej]

Am I crazy? Am I not seeing what yall are seeing about Maniac saving celaph???

Maniac openly stated he towned celaph and wasn't going to vote him.

So do I think he saved him? Not how I'd define it, but it doesn't remove Maniac from examination.

[ghug]

Woops I forgot to finish my thoughts.

What I'm asking is, if Celaph only listed town as his last post, can we figure out if we think he wrote those names feeling 100% certain that he was going to die and that he wouldn't have to explain the names?

And if so, is scum!Celaph the type of scum player who would list all town here, or try to sneak in 1 scum, especially if the plan was for that scum to be bussing him?

cel's EOD1 post is a better example to look at. By EOD2 cel has had a chance to talk to teammates and knew that a push was coming, and thus had time to concoct a plan.

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... aniac&g=73

celaph is talking so much about maniac it seems too
much like look at him
look at him
look at maniac
i said look at him
cmon look at how towny maniac is

feels like painting a target for posthumous sussing. way too much attention to be scum/scum

My working theory is this is correct but Maniac is still scum. I expect flipper with a CC war incoming.

The tone shift about celaph.

Him working all of day 2 for Maniac to be voted and when he's tied for lead, decides to say fuck it let's go on celaph?

Makes zero sense for someone who is town, who scum read Maniac all day and pushed for him all day, to do this.

OK someone with fresh eyes look at this. Tell me if I'm grasping at straws or not. The explanation from blamp doesn't explain how untowny this is.

Blamp is a bit sus, but I think ghug is a bigger question mark.

Im half british and my family was from birkenhead. youd think that you two would be the easiest people for me to relate too and yet in every game I feel I have to explain my intuitions to you several times and you usually wind up both just finding me a nuisance

Birken-friggin-heead? G'wed lad.

I rarely find you a nuisance, don't worry, I'm glad you're in the game.

I made mention a while ago about being able to tell jamie and brain based off of each other. I have worries, but not very prevalent ones.

All things considered, I think damo, RHK, ghug, worcej, and TFB are reasonable scum candidates.

This is an absolute shotgun of reads.

-----

Maniac is my D3 vote.
If Maniac flips scum, I plan to advocate for a JOAT shot on ghug, else he'll be the D4

What motivation would I have to push a wagon on a non-caught teammate in trying to save a caught teammate?

[worcej]

My preliminary assessment is that I must be mafia.

lol...

Also, wtf at 20 pages to catchup during night phase?! FFS people...

[worcej]

Ok guys, hear me out: today was scum v scum v scum.

This is definitely a weird ghug post.

[BusinessLamp]

These two posts from blamp which feel weird to me:

If you think celaph is town, do you agree that makes Maniac sus af?

anyway as more people start to town-lean celaph i encourage everyone to look at the fact that that makes Maniac look rly rly sus.

No one mentions moving towards town!Celaph during that time period. So it's very weird to keep trying to push that argument.

Keep in mind the votes were "6 The 4 cel 3 dam 2 Jam" when blamp wrote these posts, TFB had been tied or leading the votes since ~5 hours before these posts, so I think it would be reasonable to assume that at this point in D2, blamp didn't think Celaph would be DK'd, thus there's no risk to blamp pushing town!Celaph since he doubts that Celaph would flip and that he (blamp) would have to explain himself.

This makes even more sense now that we know Celaph was GF, because then blamp also knows that any Cop scans of Celaph will be clean, so there's no risk of the cop/JOAT revealing that Celaph is scum and then following that thread to realize that blamp was covering for Celaph here during D2.

There's a difference in what I'm saying though. I'm not saying celaph is town, I'm challenging people's reasonings. You're right in that I've noted that TFB is likely the vote, which therefore implies that people are less convinced that celaph is scum. What I'm saying is, if that belief exists, then why aren't people looking at maniac more? I believe at this point people like ghug had said that celaph's posting was better. It struck me as odd that no one was then making the next step of moving to Maniac. I wasn't pushing celaph as town myself, unless you make the argument that just the mere mentioning of the idea that celaph /could/ be town is an effort to push that agenda, which I guess could be fair. But even that is less strong than what you're purporting.

Of course, once it seems more likely that Maniac isn't going to die...

I'd argue it never seemed like Maniac was going to die. Momentum was never there, and never would be there. I think everyone saw that. The votes on Maniac at the end of the day included two "LeTs MaKe iT iNtErEsTinG" votes. To say that I was campaigning with an effort to actually have Maniac killed and expected that to happen seems unrealistic.

In all fairness, I don't have a good explanation for why he wouldn't just switch to TFB when both TFB and Celaph were on 6 votes?

Except it's totally possible that blamp doesn't know that it's 6-6-5 when he changes to vote from Maniac for Celaph at D2 00:06, and instead thinks that Chaqa switching from Maniac to Celaph has made Celaph's death a forgone conclusion at 7 or 8 votes, which suggests that blamp is bussing Celaph here late in D2.

That feels like a weird conclusion to draw and a weird possibility to bring up. The votes had been stagnant for a while and I was active and present, why wouldn't I know the situation? Your initial point holds more true.

blamp then provides the explanation of "I just wanted Maniac as another wagon to debate instead of a day of just voting Celaph", which sounds reasonable in the abstract. But if you look at all his D2 posts that mention Maniac, this is the only one with any substantive argument for why he's voting for Maniac.

the maniac stance is mainly based on thinking his townread on celaph is weird and artificial, and to this point he has had varying levels of justification for it. it reads as some sort of ploy, and the reason i've felt like he's a potentially better vote today is because if maniac flips scum then i think it would be prudent for us to reconsider what that means for celaph's alignment

The context for this is here in N1:

i feel like a scenario that feels likely to me is that maniac is scum, picked town member celaph to randomly white knight for, and can't keep track of his justifications for it. that's why i think maniac before celaph. because like. Maniac!scum and celaph!town makes sense, as well as Maniac!scum and celaph!scum. maniac seems sus either way

blamp has already been laying the groundwork for clearing Celaph since N1, ever since we almost DK'd Celaph on D1.

But blamp waited 40 out of the 48 hours of D2 before continuing to make a real argument for why Maniac is sus. And when he finally did...the true goal is still that it's a way to clear Celaph.

Everything that I'm saying in order to "clear celaph" though is completely dependent on Maniac flipping scum. So the only way that celaph is cleared and my efforts would stop him from being voted based on my arguments is if we vote off Maniac, he's a scum partner, and therefore that accomplishes /maybe/ helping celaph? In the situation of a me/Maniac/celaph scum team, which is the only situation where celaph gets less sus on him based on my logic, why would I drag Maniac so far into the mud?

TLDR: You're misinterpreting how much I was advocating that celaph was town. I really wasn't, all of my logic was conditional on Maniac being scum, with the exception of one post where I say his logic in saying you are town is good. I assume now that you are probably actually town, and what celaph was saying in the post I cited was true. But yeah, reconsider the crux of my arguments, and if they actually lead to me advocating unequivocally that celaph is town. I think your analysis is in good faith, but you're misunderstanding my intentions.

[damo666]

road map for the game:

• resolve Maniac/Lamp situation, get a mafia very likely
• flip ghug get a mafia
• figure out what to do with Jamie, Boat, rivera, and worcej
• if we resolved all those alignments and the game isn’t over, PANIK

1) Maniac
2) Sabi/ghug/rdr/Jamie [that order]

[DemonRHK]

What motivation would I have to push a wagon on a non-caught teammate in trying to save a caught teammate?

You never intended to finish on Maniac, as you ended on boat.

You switched off of Maniac to push an uncovered lead on Boat, swapped back onto Maniac to even out the wagons and cover celaph up more.

Which is why Maniac needs scanned and flipped.

I am fully in the kool-aid: Maniac is scum flipper, and you are scum as well.

[pyxxy]

Celaph mentions of pyxxy
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... pyxxy&g=73

summed up as a very hard defense of pyxxy encompassing dismissal of my case as well as putting pyxxy in towncore with little hesitation

on the surface this is a pretty odd one to read. it mirrors how cel talks about jamie and causes me to think that cel wouldnt use the same defenses for both scum partners here so maybe this actually gives pyxxy a better grade in spite of the tie vote attempt

C-

celaph listing pyxxy as towncore makes me think pyxxy is more likely town. Both this game and last game, celaph buddied me by listing reasons I was town and reasons that my logic made sense. I think it's a strategy he uses to get new players on his side, and to appear honest by pointing out the strengths of townie newer players.

Re-reading Celaph's mentions of me, and how I did honestly feel during the course of D2 and almost screwing us out of killing Celaph, I agree with this assessment by blamp. I definitely think Celaph was buddying me and I didn't realize it at the time.

[worcej]

Haven't checked the bot but I knew there was a three way tie between Maniac vs celaph vs tfb.

What, or should I specify who, caused everyone to jump ship from Maniac on to celaph?

I think the best credit goes to Chaqa in this case.

My plan was to hold onto my celaph vote until 00:02 and then was going to move to prevent a tie.

[BusinessLamp]

okay yeah so i dont think celaph/chaqa are a scumteam because if they are chaqa wouldnt leave the TFB wagon to vote for me and leave celaph at 4/4 instead of 5/4

so therefore chaqa is town?

re: day 1 votes

[pyxxy]

road map for the game:

• resolve Maniac/Lamp situation, get a mafia very likely
• flip ghug get a mafia
• figure out what to do with Jamie, Boat, rivera, and worcej
• if we resolved all those alignments and the game isn’t over, PANIK

1) Maniac
2) Sabi/ghug/rdr/Jamie [that order]

Would you (or Eden for that matter) advocate for the JOAT shooting Maniac during this night?

[worcej]

snip

There's way too much in here for responding to every minor point and aside to be worthwhile, so I'm just going to address it as a whole. If you've got any specific point you want me to respond to, I'm happy to oblige, but most of the shipments you're making about individual people (e.g. my comments on data analysis being scummy) don't make any sense.

I have seen town repeatedly lose games by refusing to consider people because they voted for scum early. If you want specific examples, consider Donny last game or Chaqa in the 3v11 game. My issue with your post was with the fact that you were doing that at all, and I criticized it with a few comments on the specific propra in question and a general comment on the meta. The goal wasn't to shade everyone on the celaph wagons, or to give my current thoughts on scum, it was to note that it's ridiculous to just sit there and lock them all as town. You're saying I'm scummy—beyond the questionable nitpicking of semantics—because I'm trying to fill your attempts at establishing a towncore, bit I'm not nefariously picking at the seams to undermine your goal. I'm saying plainly that I think writing of half the game as town is a bad idea.

You can look at past games to see me making this attachment repeatedly after we catch scum early. It's not scum motivated. I just disagree with you, and for good reason.

We as town completely failed to pay attention to Chaqa's comments about Donny and then when it was too late, Jamie and you couldn't see eye to eye.

Town typically seems to not give a shit about what opinions dead people have far too often, so it's refreshing to see some improvement on this with regards to snowy's posts popping up.

[ghug]

What motivation would I have to push a wagon on a non-caught teammate in trying to save a caught teammate?

You never intended to finish on Maniac, as you ended on boat.

You switched off of Maniac to push an uncovered lead on Boat, swapped back onto Maniac to even out the wagons and cover celaph up more.

Which is why Maniac needs scanned and flipped.

I am fully in the kool-aid: Maniac is scum flipper, and you are scum as well.

I mean, I was happy with Boat too, but I only left Maniac once the wagon died.

Why does Maniac have to be flipper specifically?

[BusinessLamp]

anyway let me force myself to be productive and end my morning tirade lol

in sum:

maniac and sabi are scum probs

whoever is town of damo/ghug/bozo need to pick up their play

celaph is still a decent option but like I don’t want this day to be a foregone conclusion that celaph is leaving.

rdr and worcej need to produce as much content as possible plz

i'd like to direct everyone who is seeing my actions as confusing or non-sensical to this post. indicates what i was doing, and that i was still good with celaph leaving and not convinced he was town.

[worcej]

at the very least I think celaph is happy he rolled godfather

Or he just said it for shits and giggles.

Also, celaph has rolled scum soooo much in the last 10-15 games. Like jeez

Remember when this used to be rdr?

[President Eden]

road map for the game:

• resolve Maniac/Lamp situation, get a mafia very likely
• flip ghug get a mafia
• figure out what to do with Jamie, Boat, rivera, and worcej
• if we resolved all those alignments and the game isn’t over, PANIK

1) Maniac
2) Sabi/ghug/rdr/Jamie [that order]

Would you (or Eden for that matter) advocate for the JOAT shooting Maniac during this night?

it would be a solid play IMO

**not that I’m telling the JOAT what to do

[worcej]

Is anyone reading my posts? I wouldnt mind feedback and opinions. I think ive established at a minimum that celaph was godfather and tfb isnt scum.

some of my other thoughts are maybe more intuitive than factual

Yes, I am reading them.