M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[DemonRHK]

Woops I forgot to finish my thoughts.

What I'm asking is, if Celaph only listed town as his last post, can we figure out if we think he wrote those names feeling 100% certain that he was going to die and that he wouldn't have to explain the names?

And if so, is scum!Celaph the type of scum player who would list all town here, or try to sneak in 1 scum, especially if the plan was for that scum to be bussing him?

cel's EOD1 post is a better example to look at. By EOD2 cel has had a chance to talk to teammates and knew that a push was coming, and thus had time to concoct a plan.

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... aniac&g=73

celaph is talking so much about maniac it seems too
much like look at him
look at him
look at maniac
i said look at him
cmon look at how towny maniac is

feels like painting a target for posthumous sussing. way too much attention to be scum/scum

My working theory is this is correct but Maniac is still scum. I expect flipper with a CC war incoming.

I kinda dig his explanation though. It clearly was not image motivated, and I don't see why scum Blamp takes the time to try to save celaph if he's just going to move to kill him.

The tone shift about celaph.

Him working all of day 2 for Maniac to be voted and when he's tied for lead, decides to say fuck it let's go on celaph?

Makes zero sense for someone who is town, who scum read Maniac all day and pushed for him all day, to do this.

OK someone with fresh eyes look at this. Tell me if I'm grasping at straws or not. The explanation from blamp doesn't explain how untowny this is.

Blamp is a bit sus, but I think ghug is a bigger question mark.

Im half british and my family was from birkenhead. youd think that you two would be the easiest people for me to relate too and yet in every game I feel I have to explain my intuitions to you several times and you usually wind up both just finding me a nuisance

Birken-friggin-heead? G'wed lad.

I rarely find you a nuisance, don't worry, I'm glad you're in the game.

I made mention a while ago about being able to tell jamie and brain based off of each other. I have worries, but not very prevalent ones.

All things considered, I think damo, RHK, ghug, worcej, and TFB are reasonable scum candidates.

This is an absolute shotgun of reads.

-----

Maniac is my D3 vote.
If Maniac flips scum, I plan to advocate for a JOAT shot on ghug, else he'll be the D4

[BusinessLamp]

##vote celaph

leggooooo

14 minutes earlier(and the whole day 2was celaph is town)

I'm not cool with Maniac - what information will we gain from that flip?

celaph is likely town

That reaction of voting for someone you were screaming from dawn was town seems so off. Like why would you be excited to vote for you town read like that? Only a reaction of scum bussing makes sense since he was never connected with making celaph town?

Idk that vote seems so off tone from all his celaph comments.

Is this another one of my Sabi is grasping at straws theory?

Without looking at my own iso, I only remember saying once in the entire day that celaph is town. This comment isn't saying celaph is town, you're removing the context from it. It's saying that if Maniac flips scum, celaph will be more town. granted i could've expressed that better but I say it like one page later.

People have a misunderstanding of where I placed celaph in my rankings. This is my own fault, because I purposely didn't vocalize any celaph suspicion in an effort to prevent the day from running away more. I'm hoping it's an "actions speak louder than words" type deal.

I was also hoping that having me move onto celaph late would surprise mafia and maybe throw off their calculations of what will happen end of day. It could be possible that mafia was counting on me staying on Maniac or switching to TFB, so they felt more comfortable voting celaph. This could be true of Chaqa, for example.

[BusinessLamp]

Like there was no transition of blamp posts from CELAPH IS Town to VOTE CELAPH LESSGOOOO.

All in span of 14 minutes?

Yes its eod, emotions are wild

But like idk it feels like signal?

Here's how the votes looked like around then:

00:22 ghu Cha➙Man 6 The 6 Man 5 cel
00:06 Cha Man➙cel 6 The 6 cel 5 Man
00:06 Bus Man➙cel 7 cel 6 The 4 Man
00:05 The Man➙cel 8 cel 6 The 3 Man
00:05 ghu Man➙Man 8 cel 6 The 3 Man
00:03 dam The➙cel 9 cel 5 The 3 Man

What's odd was Blamp number one vote for the whole day, Maniac, was still tied when he suddenly switched to celaph?

It's weird. I need to relook at this with fresh eyes.

Weird and unconventional doesn't mean scummy. I switched to celaph when it was tied between him and TFB. Based on all my postings, people didn't expect me to move to celaph. Me voting TFB would be understandable. Why does it make sense for scum!lamp to do what I did, or to not just camp on Maniac for longer and see what plays out?

Sure you can say I was trying to get credit, but celaph going wasn't inevitable at that point at all.

The majority of my Maniac case was based around the scenario of celaph being town. Having one go provided more info on the other. One had to leave.

[Bonatogether]

Damo looks good

why is this good

Because what is the scum motivation to hammer their Godfather the first 16 hours of a new day?

it wouldn't have happened - 0 risk for scum aside from people asking questions

[President Eden]

Please reread the last twenty minutes of eod.

Read blamp total tone change irt celaph.

Look at the vote count when he changed his vote.

None of his actions and behavior makes sense for a member of town who was pushing for a wagon on a player

having now gone back and looked at Lamp’s EOD

I still don’t get it

pls elaborate or point me to previous post where you have

Pyxxy post is a lot more in depth than my own:

http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/ ... 01#p293201

My two posts that raised my own alarm

http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/ ... 17#p293117

http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/ ... 21#p293121

both your posts misunderstand what Lamp is saying. he is responding to someone asking him what Maniac flipping mafia will reveal. in Lamp’s mind at the time, Maniac was mafia trying to get credit for correctly identifying celaph as town and trying to prevent a miskill. it is a conditional statement, and you have cut off the “if” portion of it and argued from the “then” portion.

still reading pyxxy’s post.

[brainbomb]

in case you vote me:

I was thinking what the flipper would choose and thought the worst thing that can happen should be choosing miller, right? that's something that would let the cop scan him inno while still having the out of being towny, even after flip. That could heavily damage the perspective of town with reads and manipulation. At least he could not change the role after EoD1.

I kinda wish I flip miller here, just to make sure that all guilty scans are top (still the gf case but what can you do).

https://soundcloud.com/mothlion/webdip- ... al_sharing

[BusinessLamp]

Like there was no transition of blamp posts from CELAPH IS Town to VOTE CELAPH LESSGOOOO.

All in span of 14 minutes?

Yes its eod, emotions are wild

But like idk it feels like signal?

Here's how the votes looked like around then:

00:22 ghu Cha➙Man 6 The 6 Man 5 cel
00:06 Cha Man➙cel 6 The 6 cel 5 Man
00:06 Bus Man➙cel 7 cel 6 The 4 Man
00:05 The Man➙cel 8 cel 6 The 3 Man
00:05 ghu Man➙Man 8 cel 6 The 3 Man
00:03 dam The➙cel 9 cel 5 The 3 Man

What's odd was Blamp number one vote for the whole day, Maniac, was still tied when he suddenly switched to celaph?

It's weird. I need to relook at this with fresh eyes.

I kinda dig his explanation though. It clearly was not image motivated, and I don't see why scum Blamp takes the time to try to save celaph if he's just going to move to kill him.

this. scumplay would've been to go full force on the "celaph is town" train and if it doesn't work out, hope that people see it as too scummy to be scum and argue that i was just wrong

[BusinessLamp]

celaph mentions of demonrhk

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... onrhk&g=73

this is curious
maybe how celaph would conceal janitor is to just never even talk about them

if you search "demon" he's mentioned twice (super in passing) which doesnt really take away from your point, but ya

[BusinessLamp]

damo mentions of celaph

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

brutal and focused. there is no indication ever that damo would hope celaph lives

the list of reads where damo only mentions celaph as a potential boot and townreads many others is particularly in agreement with this point. not even really considering other options.

[BusinessLamp]

damo has no mentions of celaph d1 and celaph quotes 1 post from damo day 1

so maybe damo only became relentless d2 out of feeling like it was hopeless to save cel.

i do also think that celaph goes into the scum chat n1 and gives full permission to bus. would likely feel very disheartened after doing poorly early two games in a row

[Jamiet99uk]

BOZO OH MY GOD I FOUND SOMETHING INCREDIBLE

WHAT IS IT?

The suspense is killing me

It's both

[BusinessLamp]

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

Chaqa mentions of celaph
a bit uneven. very back and forth
wants cel then doesnt
then wants to give cel two more phases then doesnt
its good enough to give Chaqa an A- because for chaqa to be scum he has to be fine with wiping out his own godfather d1 and risk wagons not going right

I don't think chaqa was taking much of a risk with how late he switched his vote. idk. i think it could easily be a Big Balls scumplay. And I think his vote for celaph on day two could've been in hopes that pushing the celaph wagon in the lead at 5 minutes to deadline would make it counterbalance over to TFB by end of day, especially if he thought I would swing to TFB.

[Jamiet99uk]

Damo looks good

why is this good

Because what is the scum motivation to hammer their Godfather the first 16 hours of a new day?

Assuming he was a lost cause after D1, bussing him hard and hammering to try to shut down productive discussion.

[BusinessLamp]

I would rate the odds of either Maniac or Blamp being scum at 99%. The odds of both being scum are around 62%. Don’t check my math

I don't really get this. Obviously I pushed Maniac's name hard, but why are our alignments linked?

[President Eden]

I would rate the odds of either Maniac or Blamp being scum at 99%. The odds of both being scum are around 62%. Don’t check my math

I don't really get this. Obviously I pushed Maniac's name hard, but why are our alignments linked?

what part of “don’t check my math” didn’t u get smh

[BusinessLamp]

If celaph flips scum I would very much endorse the JOAT popping Bozo.

I just don't see where this conclusion came, could you explain?

pretty great rivera post

why is this great? wouldn't scum be more motivated to ask about this?

actually no with the assumption that bozo is likely town, from that perspective the question looks great from RDR. nevermind lol

[President Eden]

road map for the game:

• resolve Maniac/Lamp situation, get a mafia very likely
• flip ghug get a mafia
• figure out what to do with Jamie, Boat, rivera, and worcej
• if we resolved all those alignments and the game isn’t over, PANIK

[Chaqa]

I would rate the odds of either Maniac or Blamp being scum at 99%. The odds of both being scum are around 62%. Don’t check my math

I don't really get this. Obviously I pushed Maniac's name hard, but why are our alignments linked?

what part of “don’t check my math” didn’t u get smh

He forgot to carry the 7

[BusinessLamp]

I have to wake up in four hours but I need to reread since I won't have time later. I made it to damo iso. Only 9 more to go after this :blobcatsalute:

Why did you only choose to critique and pick apart my posts when iso'ing multiple people?

[BusinessLamp]

Celaph mentions of pyxxy
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... pyxxy&g=73

summed up as a very hard defense of pyxxy encompassing dismissal of my case as well as putting pyxxy in towncore with little hesitation

on the surface this is a pretty odd one to read. it mirrors how cel talks about jamie and causes me to think that cel wouldnt use the same defenses for both scum partners here so maybe this actually gives pyxxy a better grade in spite of the tie vote attempt

C-

celaph listing pyxxy as towncore makes me think pyxxy is more likely town. Both this game and last game, celaph buddied me by listing reasons I was town and reasons that my logic made sense. I think it's a strategy he uses to get new players on his side, and to appear honest by pointing out the strengths of townie newer players.