M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[ghug]

is anyone irritated by what im doing and wants me to cease because its flooding the thread with links to things anyone could just go look up on their own?

I'm learning a lot just watching how you investigate. Please keep going. And like Eden mentioned I had no idea about the mentions bot trick, which I'm using to look at blamp talking about celaph rn

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

I went somewhere with this. Allow me to do an offensively poor imitation of brainbomb

TLDR: I think blamp was trying to push town!Celaph during D2 to cover for him but once blamp thought Celaph was a goner, he switched to bussing Celaph.

These two posts from blamp which feel weird to me:

If you think celaph is town, do you agree that makes Maniac sus af?

anyway as more people start to town-lean celaph i encourage everyone to look at the fact that that makes Maniac look rly rly sus.

There's 28 minutes between these posts during which page 143/144 are posted:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... d=w:292500

No one mentions moving towards town!Celaph during that time period. So it's very weird to keep trying to push that argument.

Keep in mind the votes were "6 The 4 cel 3 dam 2 Jam" when blamp wrote these posts, TFB had been tied or leading the votes since ~5 hours before these posts, so I think it would be reasonable to assume that at this point in D2, blamp didn't think Celaph would be DK'd, thus there's no risk to blamp pushing town!Celaph since he doubts that Celaph would flip and that he (blamp) would have to explain himself.

This makes even more sense now that we know Celaph was GF, because then blamp also knows that any Cop scans of Celaph will be clean, so there's no risk of the cop/JOAT revealing that Celaph is scum and then following that thread to realize that blamp was covering for Celaph here during D2.

If anything, a clean scan of Celaph makes blamp look very, very smart.

Of course, once it seems more likely that Maniac isn't going to die...

##vote celaph

leggooooo

Why did you move to celaph? I thought you townread him.

all part of the plan

anyway yea the whole day i was thinking that unless the maniac wagon picked up steam i'd move to celaph. even then i think i wouldve. idk. i never really was that confident in my townread of him i just pushed other stuff to try and make the day have more content (without deliberately announcing that was the goal like others lol).

blamp changes to vote from Maniac for Celaph at D2 00:06 and then quickly explains why once N2 begins.

In all fairness, I don't have a good explanation for why he wouldn't just switch to TFB when both TFB and Celaph were on 6 votes?

Except it's totally possible that blamp doesn't know that it's 6-6-5 when he changes to vote from Maniac for Celaph at D2 00:06, and instead thinks that Chaqa switching from Maniac to Celaph has made Celaph's death a forgone conclusion at 7 or 8 votes, which suggests that blamp is bussing Celaph here late in D2.

blamp then provides the explanation of "I just wanted Maniac as another wagon to debate instead of a day of just voting Celaph", which sounds reasonable in the abstract. But if you look at all his D2 posts that mention Maniac, this is the only one with any substantive argument for why he's voting for Maniac.

I've included the bot link too so that y'all can double check me.
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... rt=Day%202

the maniac stance is mainly based on thinking his townread on celaph is weird and artificial, and to this point he has had varying levels of justification for it. it reads as some sort of ploy, and the reason i've felt like he's a potentially better vote today is because if maniac flips scum then i think it would be prudent for us to reconsider what that means for celaph's alignment

The context for this is here in N1:

i feel like a scenario that feels likely to me is that maniac is scum, picked town member celaph to randomly white knight for, and can't keep track of his justifications for it. that's why i think maniac before celaph. because like. Maniac!scum and celaph!town makes sense, as well as Maniac!scum and celaph!scum. maniac seems sus either way

blamp has already been laying the groundwork for clearing Celaph since N1, ever since we almost DK'd Celaph on D1.

But blamp waited 40 out of the 48 hours of D2 before continuing to make a real argument for why Maniac is sus. And when he finally did...the true goal is still that it's a way to clear Celaph.

Like brainbomb wrote:

maybe too subtle and too simple but cel wants ppl to look bad when maniac flips town there

I think blamp was also working towards this goal flipping town!Maniac in order to take the heat off Celaph. Fin.

This feels new smart town sloppy in a way that I dig.

[BesharamSabi]

is anyone irritated by what im doing and wants me to cease because its flooding the thread with links to things anyone could just go look up on their own?

I'm learning a lot just watching how you investigate. Please keep going. And like Eden mentioned I had no idea about the mentions bot trick, which I'm using to look at blamp talking about celaph rn

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

I went somewhere with this. Allow me to do an offensively poor imitation of brainbomb

TLDR: I think blamp was trying to push town!Celaph during D2 to cover for him but once blamp thought Celaph was a goner, he switched to bussing Celaph.

These two posts from blamp which feel weird to me:

If you think celaph is town, do you agree that makes Maniac sus af?

anyway as more people start to town-lean celaph i encourage everyone to look at the fact that that makes Maniac look rly rly sus.

There's 28 minutes between these posts during which page 143/144 are posted:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... d=w:292500

No one mentions moving towards town!Celaph during that time period. So it's very weird to keep trying to push that argument.

Keep in mind the votes were "6 The 4 cel 3 dam 2 Jam" when blamp wrote these posts, TFB had been tied or leading the votes since ~5 hours before these posts, so I think it would be reasonable to assume that at this point in D2, blamp didn't think Celaph would be DK'd, thus there's no risk to blamp pushing town!Celaph since he doubts that Celaph would flip and that he (blamp) would have to explain himself.

This makes even more sense now that we know Celaph was GF, because then blamp also knows that any Cop scans of Celaph will be clean, so there's no risk of the cop/JOAT revealing that Celaph is scum and then following that thread to realize that blamp was covering for Celaph here during D2.

If anything, a clean scan of Celaph makes blamp look very, very smart.

Of course, once it seems more likely that Maniac isn't going to die...

##vote celaph

leggooooo

Why did you move to celaph? I thought you townread him.

all part of the plan

anyway yea the whole day i was thinking that unless the maniac wagon picked up steam i'd move to celaph. even then i think i wouldve. idk. i never really was that confident in my townread of him i just pushed other stuff to try and make the day have more content (without deliberately announcing that was the goal like others lol).

blamp changes to vote from Maniac for Celaph at D2 00:06 and then quickly explains why once N2 begins.

In all fairness, I don't have a good explanation for why he wouldn't just switch to TFB when both TFB and Celaph were on 6 votes?

Except it's totally possible that blamp doesn't know that it's 6-6-5 when he changes to vote from Maniac for Celaph at D2 00:06, and instead thinks that Chaqa switching from Maniac to Celaph has made Celaph's death a forgone conclusion at 7 or 8 votes, which suggests that blamp is bussing Celaph here late in D2.

blamp then provides the explanation of "I just wanted Maniac as another wagon to debate instead of a day of just voting Celaph", which sounds reasonable in the abstract. But if you look at all his D2 posts that mention Maniac, this is the only one with any substantive argument for why he's voting for Maniac.

I've included the bot link too so that y'all can double check me.
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... rt=Day%202

the maniac stance is mainly based on thinking his townread on celaph is weird and artificial, and to this point he has had varying levels of justification for it. it reads as some sort of ploy, and the reason i've felt like he's a potentially better vote today is because if maniac flips scum then i think it would be prudent for us to reconsider what that means for celaph's alignment

The context for this is here in N1:

i feel like a scenario that feels likely to me is that maniac is scum, picked town member celaph to randomly white knight for, and can't keep track of his justifications for it. that's why i think maniac before celaph. because like. Maniac!scum and celaph!town makes sense, as well as Maniac!scum and celaph!scum. maniac seems sus either way

blamp has already been laying the groundwork for clearing Celaph since N1, ever since we almost DK'd Celaph on D1.

But blamp waited 40 out of the 48 hours of D2 before continuing to make a real argument for why Maniac is sus. And when he finally did...the true goal is still that it's a way to clear Celaph.

Like brainbomb wrote:

maybe too subtle and too simple but cel wants ppl to look bad when maniac flips town there

I think blamp was also working towards this goal flipping town!Maniac in order to take the heat off Celaph. Fin.

Insert Dwayne Wade x LeBron James dunk image here.

Add in my vote count post to this and blamp weird tone change irt celaph and you got a spam dunk case on blamp.

[Jamiet99uk]

thinking there’s probably one mafia (but not two) between Lamp and Maniac.

Maniac’s behavior makes sense as a mafia teammate trying to cover for celaph, but if that’s not what happened then Lamp’s behavior around Maniac makes perfect sense as an opportunistic shot to take a townie down with celaph. the team doesn’t really make sense; there’s an outside chance Lamp decides that Maniac is getting lined up and shot next after celaph goes, and that he needs to bus both, but more likely one of them is town.

obviously both could be town… but it starts to get hard to find a plausible team that has neither of them.

Ya, it's Maniac.

That's what I said.

[TheFlyingBoat]

A celaph info flip grows in merit. If celaph is in fact scum, there is a small group of people who would fit the 'saving my teammate'. If celaph is town, then at least we know we're all a bunch of idiots.

Is it worth killing another Town to find out that we are all idiots?

And now celaph is just another town

I promise I have a serious post coming soon once I finish catching up on reading the night, but I must say I couldn't help but think of Somebody I Used to Know by Gotye as I read this line lmao. I will say while the flip does look bad for Jamie in this instance, I do like that he called worcej out for a really stupid last line.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Haven't checked the bot but I knew there was a three way tie between Maniac vs celaph vs tfb.

What, or should I specify who, caused everyone to jump ship from Maniac on to celaph?

Was there a three way tie? I think there was a 6-6-5 which is basically one, but I don't think there was an actual full three way tie. I personally wanted Celaph more than Maniac but wanted to see if Maniac would do anything interesting under pressure. All I got was a half hearted if I die do X post sadly, but I guess if there were no pressure on him he probably does even less over the final two hours.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Are you scum again son?

I was really scared to read my role pm, but we good lol.

One more thought for the night
Celaph was scared to read role pm but sees hes godfather and realizes he doesnt need to do much day 1 and might get cop scanned so hes “good”

additionally this tells us hes good because his scum partners are also good at being scum and thus hes good.

discuss if you agree with these points because I think this might rule out some team compositions if celaph is good with what he saw and if it was like pyxxy, sabi, business I dont think he even says this

Do you think it rules any of them individually out of being scum or are you just saying it rules out a celaph/sabi/pyxxy/blamp scum team? If the latter, I could see it, if the former I vehemently disagree. Either way part of me leans to him saying that as not reflective of teammates but something he said to seem town.

[TheFlyingBoat]

at the very least I think celaph is happy he rolled godfather

Or he just said it for shits and giggles.

Also, celaph has rolled scum soooo much in the last 10-15 games. Like jeez

this is the more likely explanation imo

[TheFlyingBoat]

Just when I thought celaph was putting in too much effort to get TFB voted out first for them to be mafia teammates, TFB tried to make Maniac his counterwagon instead of celaph, and did not return to celaph until celaph was in the lead. Maybe the plan was for celaph and TFB to bus each other all day.

>TFB tried to make Maniac his counterwagon instead of celaph, and did not return to celaph until celaph was in the lead.

I mean I did pretty explicitly mention that I would come back to celaph when I cast my vote for Maniac. Do you actually read my posts or do you just look at the bot or what? Maniac eventually was tied for lead wagon and that pressure got Maniac to post. Not as in-depth or as serious as I would like, but it's something we likely don't get otherwise and regardless was at least worth a shot.

Further, with about 5 mins to go (my predetermined latest flip back time after harassing Chaqa about it the prior day), my last page refresh only showed Chaqa's vote switch. I only realized Blamp had voted for Celaph before I did after I had submitted my vote. In my view at the time, I thought I had broken the tie at a point that would give people sufficient time to move in the desired direction and it worked (though perhaps I was too cavalier given the attempted pyxxy vote change right after the buzzer).

>Maybe the plan was for celaph and TFB to bus each other all day.

If that's the plan you think I had, why not just do it? Surely in your hypothetical world where celaph and I are somehow scum buddies I just stay on his wagon all day long instead of trying to create discussion and prevent others from coasting.

Would certainly have been easier and it would have saved me from this lazy attack, but it would have been worse for town to have a me vs Celaph fight that allowed people to slide under the radar and not talk for 12 straight hours so I did what I did instead.

[TheFlyingBoat]

damo mentions of celaph

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

brutal and focused. there is no indication ever that damo would hope celaph lives

wait, what is this wizardry?

nobody tell NFT about this function

????

I've literally used this function this game. Is this another stupid meme like last game?

[Jamiet99uk]

: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

Jamie talks a ton about celaph being scum
and approving of the celaph wagon
and encourages maniac to vote celaph

but just never seems to actually scumread celaph or do anything about it at all

You are wrong.

At no point did I "approve of" the Celaph wagon.

At no point did I "encourage Maniac to vote Celaph". I asked him why he was so violently opposed to doing so, but that's not the same as what you're alleging.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Thought I was going to get into a whole comparative narrative with brainbomb's post, but I agree with most of them and it's really late and I need to sleep. I'll try to get my view of the overall arc of the game sometime tomorrow.

[brainbomb]

: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

Jamie talks a ton about celaph being scum
and approving of the celaph wagon
and encourages maniac to vote celaph

but just never seems to actually scumread celaph or do anything about it at all

You are wrong.

At no point did I "approve of" the Celaph wagon.

At no point did I "encourage Maniac to vote Celaph". I asked him why he was so violently opposed to doing so, but that's not the same as what you're alleging.

Okay.
I am sincerely sorry for misreading your posts then and I hope my overall analysis was fair on everyone including you. what is the scumteam you think were dealing with now?

[brainbomb]

at the very least I think celaph is happy he rolled godfather

Or he just said it for shits and giggles.

Also, celaph has rolled scum soooo much in the last 10-15 games. Like jeez

this is the more likely explanation imo

Imagination (is) to building a police case what mortar is to a bricklayer

[brainbomb]

i feel like a scenario that feels likely to me is that maniac is scum, picked town member celaph to randomly white knight for, and can't keep track of his justifications for it. that's why i think maniac before celaph. because like. Maniac!scum and celaph!town makes sense, as well as Maniac!scum and celaph!scum. maniac seems sus either way

But he doesnt. thats the problem. explain why town maniac behaves how he does wrt celaph. surely theres an explanation but its not easy to come up with. You gotta see beyond whats easy or scum just uses it

[brainbomb]

Maniac giving out town reads in the way he is ie: to celaph and sabi really feels manipulative and like he’s trying to shore up allies/relationships. someone vote this man with meeeee

If hes trying to shore up allies it makes less sense for him to need to publicly be asking for his own scumteam to be the chosen offerings of allegiance

imagine if im at subway and im asking my co workers what type of bread they want their sandwiches on
theyd be pointing at the line of customers saying thats who you need to be helping

[bozotheclown]

what is the actual case on celaph other than them being mentioned?

asking a lot of questions but not particularly invested in the answer (see entire discussion about me asking brainbomb when bb last was mafia, completely ignored clarification)

no apparent suspects, judging by his ISO

I suppose by no suspect you might be referring to no votes, but it feels lazy to come away with my iso saying I have no suspects. My post before I went to sleep last night called out Sabi, Blamp, and TFB as suspects. I've liked Blamp since then so let me stick my ##vote TFB

celaph voted for Donny about the same time D1 of M72, so this vote is within celaph's bussing range.

[Jamiet99uk]

: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

Jamie talks a ton about celaph being scum
and approving of the celaph wagon
and encourages maniac to vote celaph

but just never seems to actually scumread celaph or do anything about it at all

You are wrong.

At no point did I "approve of" the Celaph wagon.

At no point did I "encourage Maniac to vote Celaph". I asked him why he was so violently opposed to doing so, but that's not the same as what you're alleging.

Okay.
I am sincerely sorry for misreading your posts then and I hope my overall analysis was fair on everyone including you. what is the scumteam you think were dealing with now?

I'm really, really not caught up on the game state.

I still scumread Maniac.

Apart from him, Damo? Sabi?

[damo666]

Is anyone reading my posts? I wouldnt mind feedback and opinions. I think ive established at a minimum that celaph was godfather and tfb isnt scum.

some of my other thoughts are maybe more intuitive than factual

Neither of those are FACTS

[brainbomb]

blamp mentions of celaph

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

lots to consider here but everything has natural progressions and reasons. the thoughts about chaqa tying it seem to resonate here and one could argue that blamp is not trying to help both chaqa and celaph both. rather blamp is using the circumstances to try to fathom why of it all. ultimately these positions can just be a mistake in guessing which we all have had. it is spelled out and explained well enough with enough wrinklesvand considerations to be a town mindset which got parts wrong.
I detect no discernable agenda here

B+

[bozotheclown]

Just when I thought celaph was putting in too much effort to get TFB voted out first for them to be mafia teammates, TFB tried to make Maniac his counterwagon instead of celaph, and did not return to celaph until celaph was in the lead. Maybe the plan was for celaph and TFB to bus each other all day.

>TFB tried to make Maniac his counterwagon instead of celaph, and did not return to celaph until celaph was in the lead.

I mean I did pretty explicitly mention that I would come back to celaph when I cast my vote for Maniac. Do you actually read my posts or do you just look at the bot or what? Maniac eventually was tied for lead wagon and that pressure got Maniac to post. Not as in-depth or as serious as I would like, but it's something we likely don't get otherwise and regardless was at least worth a shot.

Further, with about 5 mins to go (my predetermined latest flip back time after harassing Chaqa about it the prior day), my last page refresh only showed Chaqa's vote switch. I only realized Blamp had voted for Celaph before I did after I had submitted my vote. In my view at the time, I thought I had broken the tie at a point that would give people sufficient time to move in the desired direction and it worked (though perhaps I was too cavalier given the attempted pyxxy vote change right after the buzzer).

>Maybe the plan was for celaph and TFB to bus each other all day.

If that's the plan you think I had, why not just do it? Surely in your hypothetical world where celaph and I are somehow scum buddies I just stay on his wagon all day long instead of trying to create discussion and prevent others from coasting.

Would certainly have been easier and it would have saved me from this lazy attack, but it would have been worse for town to have a me vs Celaph fight that allowed people to slide under the radar and not talk for 12 straight hours so I did what I did instead.

I know you made sure to maintain your scum read of celaph, but your vote made it more likely Maniac would be DKed over celaph than than if you had not changed your vote.

Let's make these wagons more interesting. Still would likely prefer Celaph at EoD ##VOTE maniac.

If you preferred celaph, why change your vote at all? Maniac was already under pressure before your vote, and was already being discussed.