M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

damo mentions of celaph

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

brutal and focused. there is no indication ever that damo would hope celaph lives

wait, what is this wizardry?

nobody tell NFT about this function

[brainbomb]

damo has no mentions of celaph d1 and celaph quotes 1 post from damo day 1

so maybe damo only became relentless d2 out of feeling like it was hopeless to save cel.

[brainbomb]

Overall heres my grades so far of how celaph spoke to and was spoken of by these folks

TFB A-
Worcej B
Ghug B+
Damo C
Jamiet99uk D
DemonRHK A
bontogether A

[BesharamSabi]

Like there was no transition of blamp posts from CELAPH IS Town to VOTE CELAPH LESSGOOOO.

All in span of 14 minutes?

Yes its eod, emotions are wild

But like idk it feels like signal?

Here's how the votes looked like around then:

00:22 ghu Cha➙Man 6 The 6 Man 5 cel
00:06 Cha Man➙cel 6 The 6 cel 5 Man
00:06 Bus Man➙cel 7 cel 6 The 4 Man
00:05 The Man➙cel 8 cel 6 The 3 Man
00:05 ghu Man➙Man 8 cel 6 The 3 Man
00:03 dam The➙cel 9 cel 5 The 3 Man

What's odd was Blamp number one vote for the whole day, Maniac, was still tied when he suddenly switched to celaph?

It's weird. I need to relook at this with fresh eyes.

I kinda dig his explanation though. It clearly was not image motivated, and I don't see why scum Blamp takes the time to try to save celaph if he's just going to move to kill him.

The tone shift about celaph.

Him working all of day 2 for Maniac to be voted and when he's tied for lead, decides to say fuck it let's go on celaph?

Makes zero sense for someone who is town, who scum read Maniac all day and pushed for him all day, to do this.

[brainbomb]

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

Chaqa mentions of celaph
a bit uneven. very back and forth
wants cel then doesnt
then wants to give cel two more phases then doesnt
its good enough to give Chaqa an A- because for chaqa to be scum he has to be fine with wiping out his own godfather d1 and risk wagons not going right

[President Eden]

i’m so far behind on +1s.

[brainbomb]

chaqa is only scummy for how hes become y2k alex jones on every talking point about anything substantive. otherwise celaph omgus on chaqa feels desperate and not how scum fights their own guy.

if chaqa were scum hes janitor there and probably never goon

[BesharamSabi]

i’m so far behind on +1s.

Feed my karma plz

[brainbomb]

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... chaqa&g=73

way too much bargaining by celaph on chaqa where he wants chaqa to hit maniac instead. says chaqa is opportunistic which can be true for scum chaqa powerbussing also.

hard to imagine doing this with chaqas unecessary tenacity

[brainbomb]

I'm bothered by how many people coasted into today on reads. I think that Damo, Chaqa, and TFB all came into today with the idea to get me out without much of a contest which feels suspicious. I'm not convinced on people's townread of Chaqa, but definitely TFB is scummy and I think that Damo is worth a look.

this is right before flipping

none of these people are scum with celaph imo

[pyxxy]

is anyone irritated by what im doing and wants me to cease because its flooding the thread with links to things anyone could just go look up on their own?

I'm learning a lot just watching how you investigate. Please keep going. And like Eden mentioned I had no idea about the mentions bot trick, which I'm using to look at blamp talking about celaph rn

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

[Chaqa]

I would rate the odds of either Maniac or Blamp being scum at 99%. The odds of both being scum are around 62%. Don’t check my math

[brainbomb]

is anyone irritated by what im doing and wants me to cease because its flooding the thread with links to things anyone could just go look up on their own?

I'm learning a lot just watching how you investigate. Please keep going. And like Eden mentioned I had no idea about the mentions bot trick, which I'm using to look at blamp talking about celaph rn

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

did chaqa saying that cel looked towny influence your almost tying vote?

[President Eden]

I would rate the odds of either Maniac or Blamp being scum at 99%. The odds of both being scum are around 62%. Don’t check my math

more like 69% amirite

[brainbomb]

hi hi

yeah I think the point about Maniac not joining on Chaqa and in general the Chaqa wagon not picking up any steam is worth analysis. I was able to get on the thread from about 10 min before the vote and see what was happening— I saw celaph’s last post and I thought it seemed okay, but again maybe he learned from misplaying last time. I’m inclined to believe any day one will end up town v town though. Chaqa’s last minute swing confused me, I agree with TFB that it happened too late to be effective. In the moment with Chaqa being someone I suspected, instinct was just to swing opposite. I don’t think Chaqa was trying to tie it, though, that seems silly when there are town options on the table.

If it’s TvT the scum motivation for Chaqa’s switch would be to avoid some blame when Kak flips, or if celaph!town flips the heat would fall primarily on those who followed as well…

Making it as contentious as possible also gives more incentive to info flip the one who survives.

If it’s celaph!scum, the scum motivation would be a play to either lock town Fred the rest of the game if momentum swings, or a hope that he did it late enough that it isn’t actually effective and he can claim credit later.

I don’t know if either of those are more beneficial than the scum motivation of just staying on Kak and avoiding spotlight. Need to look at what role Chaqa had in giving the Kak wagon momentum in the first place in order to finish analyzing.

this is a great post by blamp actually. there is actual reasoning here

[brainbomb]

thats the style of town reasoning I saw in blamps prior towngame as well

[Chaqa]

I would rate the odds of either Maniac or Blamp being scum at 99%. The odds of both being scum are around 62%. Don’t check my math

more like 69% amirite

Oh yeah I forgot that 7 you picked out for me

[brainbomb]

rdrivera is very hard to use the bot on because almost nobody uses his full username so you have to guess what they used

[ghug]

Like there was no transition of blamp posts from CELAPH IS Town to VOTE CELAPH LESSGOOOO.

All in span of 14 minutes?

Yes its eod, emotions are wild

But like idk it feels like signal?

Here's how the votes looked like around then:

00:22 ghu Cha➙Man 6 The 6 Man 5 cel
00:06 Cha Man➙cel 6 The 6 cel 5 Man
00:06 Bus Man➙cel 7 cel 6 The 4 Man
00:05 The Man➙cel 8 cel 6 The 3 Man
00:05 ghu Man➙Man 8 cel 6 The 3 Man
00:03 dam The➙cel 9 cel 5 The 3 Man

What's odd was Blamp number one vote for the whole day, Maniac, was still tied when he suddenly switched to celaph?

It's weird. I need to relook at this with fresh eyes.

I kinda dig his explanation though. It clearly was not image motivated, and I don't see why scum Blamp takes the time to try to save celaph if he's just going to move to kill him.

The tone shift about celaph.

Him working all of day 2 for Maniac to be voted and when he's tied for lead, decides to say fuck it let's go on celaph?

Makes zero sense for someone who is town, who scum read Maniac all day and pushed for him all day, to do this.

Why does it make sense for scum?
What about his explanation do you not find believable?

[brainbomb]

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

zero day 1 mentions
which is understandable
gonna need to figure out a diff way to study this