M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

Where I’m at

MOST TOWN

Eden
Bona
Chaqa
bozo - note that this is a statement of confidence in Bona and Chaqa, not an indication that anything about my beliefs on bozo has changed.
brain
Demon
Sabi
Lamp - contingent very much on Maniac being mafia. Maniac being town moves Lamp way down.
pyxxy - this is about where the nulls begin, though for purely gut/ViBeS~/whatever reasons I feel good about pyxxy
damo
worcej
rivera
Jamie - not inherently suspect to me, but the fact that he’s here despite all his posts is suspicious to me in a second-order sense.
Boat - this is where active suspects begin. I acknowledge that celaph being mafia is somewhat exonerating for Boat, but I’m not at all sure they couldn’t have both been mafia. I’m kind of conflicted on him.
Maniac - really closely tied to celaph, and today is well-explained by town just running up multiple mafia. concededly possible that Maniac just got dragged down wrongly by mafia, but if that’s so then we still have good leads to pursue.
ghug - see above.

MOST SUS

[BesharamSabi]

Where I’m at

MOST TOWN

Eden
Bona
Chaqa
bozo - note that this is a statement of confidence in Bona and Chaqa, not an indication that anything about my beliefs on bozo has changed.
brain
Demon
Sabi
Lamp - contingent very much on Maniac being mafia. Maniac being town moves Lamp way down.
pyxxy - this is about where the nulls begin, though for purely gut/ViBeS~/whatever reasons I feel good about pyxxy
damo
worcej
rivera
Jamie - not inherently suspect to me, but the fact that he’s here despite all his posts is suspicious to me in a second-order sense.
Boat - this is where active suspects begin. I acknowledge that celaph being mafia is somewhat exonerating for Boat, but I’m not at all sure they couldn’t have both been mafia. I’m kind of conflicted on him.
Maniac - really closely tied to celaph, and today is well-explained by town just running up multiple mafia. concededly possible that Maniac just got dragged down wrongly by mafia, but if that’s so then we still have good leads to pursue.
ghug - see above.

MOST SUS

Damn I fell.

Sadge

[brainbomb]

will begin my day 1 rereads now
some people want to claim the game is easier now and the net is smaller
the net is larger now because we have variables to consider

Here are the four easiest scenarios

A. tfb and maniac are both town and celaph was bussed day 2
B. both tfb and maniac are also scum
C. one of tfb and maniac is scum but not both
D. tfb and maniac are both town and celaph was not bussed day 2 until late

[brainbomb]

The only people I will not bother reviewing are bozo and eden for this

[brainbomb]

In case this goes south:

The kind and wordy way that PE is contributing with makes me think that he is town. He is starting conversations and leading town in the right direction.

I've liked the way that ghug has pushed back against PE on things that have also caught me as suspect. This is within ghug's scum abilities, but I've liked him so far.

Blamp has improved back to normal town blamp from last game. His ideas are consistent and feel like they are coming from a towny place.

Jamie feels like he has been upset at all the things that I would expect town Jamie to be upset about. Don't just say that "this is within scum Jamie's range". That's a cop out.

Sabi/TFB scummy. Kak's reason for voting me is terrible.

on immediate review celaph focuses on sabi, tfb and kak as scumreads
he townreads eden
makes no mentions of rhk, maniac, pyxxy, rdrivera, damo or any of the lower posters such as macca

celaph scumreads blamp at one point as well but never goes for it

[brainbomb]

lots of townreads on jamie by celaph and defends jamie saying everything hes doing seems like normal town Jamie.

[brainbomb]

what is the actual case on celaph other than them being mentioned?

asking a lot of questions but not particularly invested in the answer (see entire discussion about me asking brainbomb when bb last was mafia, completely ignored clarification)

no apparent suspects, judging by his ISO

I suppose by no suspect you might be referring to no votes, but it feels lazy to come away with my iso saying I have no suspects. My post before I went to sleep last night called out Sabi, Blamp, and TFB as suspects. I've liked Blamp since then so let me stick my ##vote TFB

forced progression on blamp to town which leads to a vote on TFB

conclusion: Not bussing tfb there

[BesharamSabi]

OK I think I destressed enough from work, time to work on the sheet as I reread day 2

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=drivesdk

[brainbomb]

I continued the question because I cared less about what it said about you and more for what it said about Sabi. My initial misread acknowledged the fact that I was surprised that you would have forgotten – or as it turns out, I misinterpreted – this detail. And so, deir post saying that you wouldn’t forget such a detail makes little sense because I had literally just said that. It comes off as one who has an alignment indicative take about the situation, particularly with deir closing comment about you being off.

Their most recent reply indicates they didn’t have anything more to add. It makes me think their initial post was hollow, chiming in to be seen more than to contribute. That’s generally an indicator of scum, but I think Sabi’s posting style can also explain it.

hey celaph, good to see you

I think your analysis of what Sabi was doing there is good, but I notice you don’t come to a firm conclusion about their stance.

part of the reason I’m voting you is because it seems to me that you’ve done some of this type of thinking, but have not reached firm conclusions. please give me some idea of who your suspects are and why. thanks

TFB felt like he was saying things that he thinks that people want to hear and they are coming off in a way that feels quite unnatural. I also don't like the way that he has pushed Kak and feels like an opportunistic way to get out someone who is inactive.

Sabi is occupying a very similar strategy to their early games as town where dey are asking a lot of questions without deriving much from it. This makes me think that dey have reverted to a strategy that they know has gotten dem townread in the past seeing it as something dey can imitate. I am hesitant to kill the slot D1 because I think they are generating good conversations around them.

Jumping to live as I probably can't catch up in time. Feel free to reask questions if I've missed them.

Again labelling tfb as opportunistic is a false tag. TFB never had the luxury of being opportunistic here as he was under the gun both days. This is scum trying to use surface level reasons to get tfb killed because celeph is still preferential to killing a towny who is trying vs killing kak who is just loafing around

[brainbomb]

the nk on snowy is also explained because snowy was fine with celaph dying too; and TFB no longer is the likeliest scum under the gun who fears snow

[ghug]

ghug mini-case (psych it’s a real case) (double psych it’s a massive wallpost)

ghug unambiguously defended celaph throughout D2 and was actively shopping for other kills. That’s not condemning on its own, but it’s worth pointing out (as others have). Not going to dwell on this because it is what it is and it’s already been discussed.

The main issue is that as soon as celaph flips and we start to have some very good reasons to hand out strong townreads and build a more collective towncore, ghug immediately and decisively steps in to try to shut that down:

fwiw if ghug isn’t mafia then the entire fucking team piled on kak

There are four unknowns on the D1 celaph wagon plus worcej and rd not voting.

oh I forgot rivera and worcej. totally fair point.

but no there’s zero unknowns on the D1 celaph wagon. what you see there are six KINGS

The current state of the meta makes this exceedingly unlikely.

counterpoint: [vaguely gestures at things that actually happened in this game]

Yes, it should be approached on a per-game basis.

I don’t see any reason to townread Bona, Chaqa has a history of bussing and has been weird, and RHK and brain are both townier but not locks. I don’t see why you’d write any of them off entirely, let alone all of them.

what.

bro you cannot be serious lmao.

you flat out do not believe this. i refuse to believe you believe this.

you could have sold me on “not ready to townclear Bona” but the kid has been solving his fucking ass off all game and correctly lit celaph on fucking fire for almost a week now.

someone vig this man

I do believe this.

• Bona has proven to be highly capable as scum.

• His posts aren’t standing out to me as much as they usually do.

• One of the biggest contributions I do remember is the Simp score work which, while great, is data analysis, which has a history of being something scum hide behind.

• Another big contribution is killing celaph, but he was an early voter day 1, when celaph wasn’t active, and it’s very easy to imagine scum looking at last game and deciding celaph is dead weight not worth protecting. Day 2 means even less to me, because there’s no fucking way celaph wasn’t heavily bussed after how D1 went down

Town tends to lose games where we catch scum early I think in part because there become a bunch of more obvious kills and we don’t spend time aggregating data on the people who come out of the scum deaths looking good. Let’s not exclude half the game from the PoE again because we caught one.

As I noted in my response to the first message in this group, the correction on worcej and rivera is valid and well-received. If ghug stops there and maybe throws in a bit of advisory caution not to ignore the people in the towncore all game then sure, whatever, he’s being a bit of a Debbie downer but point would also be taken.

The issue is that he overreaches pretty badly. Sweeping cursory principles like “the recent meta doesn’t favor a lot of town clears from this” is not helpful unless it’s applied to the current game with reason to suspect the people who are ostensibly in the clear for having pushed celaph both days. A townie who’s skeptical in this situation backs this principle up with specific examples, both from past games where that principle holds true, and of players in this game who might be trying to skate by. A mafia who’s just trying to disrupt potential town group cohesion tosses it out there as a generic reason to shade that cohesion and focus energy on other games (which are not relevant) instead of this game (which is).

When challenged, his reasons for trying to shade everyone range from mildly ludicrous to completely ludicrous:

- I already challenged the Bona claim specifically, so this bit is a slight rehash, but to reach as far as to say “no reason to townread Bona” instead of “Bona looks okay but isn’t lock clear” is just wrong. It’s the type of lazy overreach that mafia trying to shade Bona makes. I will demolish the weak pretextual arguments he eventually tries to make to back this up in a bit, but it’s notable that his overreach specifically targets Bona, who is (1) very townie this game and (2) very prone to getting hanged incorrectly. Bona is exactly who the mafia would want to preserve as a viable miskill and it’s telling that ghug goes after Bona to accomplish that exact purpose.

His specific reasoning simply doesn’t hold up. First, and I’m sorry son, Bona has not proven capable as mafia. He’s gotten caught out every time he’s been mafia and he’s routinely hanged and sussed out wrongly. He’s proven capable of hunting effectively (when he’s not being lazy) and I think he has potential to be good at the mafia side of the game, but he’s not there yet. So that’s wrong, and more to the point I don’t even think ghug believes it himself. It’s the exact type of insincere praise ghug will throw at people he wants to win over when he’s mafia.

Second, “his posts aren’t standing out as much to me as usual” is a totally amorphous claim with no elaboration (you will see more of this as we continue).

Third, he acknowledges that the SIMP analysis was “great” but “has a history of being something scum hide behind.” This is a reason to townread Bona. A townie finding himself typing this statement revises his claim. A mafia committed to a position presses forward. The historical note is nothing more than another generalization from past games with no attempt to make it relevant to this one. It’s just another superficially plausible statement masquerading as real analysis.

Finally, he says that killing celaph is “another big contribution” but that “it’s very easy to imagine scum looking at last game and deciding celaph is dead weight not worth protecting.” If killing celaph is another big contribution then that is another reason to townread Bona. Basically see previous note. OK, it’s easy to imagine a mafia looking at celaph and deciding he’s dead weight. Is that what actually happened in this game? Townies develop this idea and come to a conclusion. Mafia float the implied premise and then never follow up, having accomplished their job of sewing doubt just by raising the question.

- He claims Chaqa “has a history of bussing and has been weird.” The latter is another totally amorphous and sweeping claim with no evidentiary basis. The former is true, but is too superficial to be useful, and ghug knows this as he always decries people using such simplistic logic when he’s town. Chaqa does bus when it’s appropriate, but Chaqa’s done way more than that. He flipped to celaph at a decisive moment in the explicit hopes of either swinging celaph or catching people trying to save celaph when he had a perfectly viable out in staying on Kak. Then he (admittedly after some prodding) produced an entire theory of the game implicating several people based on celaph being mafia, and has doggedly pursued that ever since. This goes far beyond the kind of reactive basic bussing that mafia would execute, and while it’s not impossible to come from Chaqa, it is exceedingly unlikely bordering on impossible.

- Declaring Demon and brain as “townier but not locks” is more or less correct, but not helpful. There is no reason to object to adding Demon and brain to a town core based on what we’ve seen so far. Advising caution is one thing, and could even be townie indicative of the right kind of paranoia (but for ghug is probably null as he’s sophisticated enough to fake that). Outright rejecting the premise with perfunctory statements is blatantly pushing scum agenda.


CLIFFS/TLDR
- ghug really wanted someone besides celaph to flip, minor but whatever
- ghug makes a series of very weak arguments trying to prevent the formation of a towncore which:
(1) badly overreach,
(2) beg many questions for further analysis which a townie would do but he doesn’t, and
(3) also display the very kind of sweeping generalizations he decries as overly simplistic when he’s town.

get his ass

Ok remind me to read this later.

[BesharamSabi]

I think celaph is the day 2 kill unless cop comes back with a guilty and claims it. otherwise yea celaph is most likely day 2 death. im concerned with how having a runaway consensus death will impact thread quality day two. whether it will create a stale environment of apathy or if it will just ultimately be something useful that results in a flip we want to see. either way my confidence level in celaph flipping scum is far lower now than it was late day 1

Hey brainbomb,

Quick question.

You said this a prior page before this comment:

there are plenty of level headed folks who pushed both cel and kak who can easily just be collectively wrong on both instances - and this includes myself. I reread celaph and found a number of posts that dont raise any alarms at all

Why did your mindset about celaph change between oh not many of his posts raise alarm to well we should D2 kill him?

Brainbomb, just wanted to know if you have reread those posts again post flip and seeing if you missed anything? I'm being genuine (I feel like my tone sounds bad).

[brainbomb]

Bona mentions of celaph
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

looks pretty great for bona

[BesharamSabi]

before I go further celaph feels eerily like capt meme did in the last game. so im not gonna hard defend him any further. and if we kill celaph thats ok

Brainbomb was right!

(meme was scum, iirc he was Godfather role I. Think)

[BesharamSabi]

I present to you the most powerful tool in the game

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/stats?g=73&phase=global

Now let's play the game "who went zzz immediately at EoD"

Code: Select all

Player	Last (Now)
BesharamSabi	00:17
President Eden	00:04
Jamiet99uk	00:46
Bonatogether	00:43
snowy801        00:23
brainbomb	01:47
TheFlyingBoat	00:14
Chaqa	        00:22
ghug	        06:45
BusinessLamp	01:16
DemonRHK	00:58
celaph	        01:16
bozotheclown	01:16
damo666	        03:34
Maniac	        00:59
pyxxy	        03:31
rdrivera2005	03:14

Blamp, Celaph, bozo eh

So we can cross bozo off this list

[BesharamSabi]

I present to you the most powerful tool in the game

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/stats?g=73&phase=global

Now let's play the game "who went zzz immediately at EoD"

Code: Select all

Player	Last (Now)
BesharamSabi	00:17
President Eden	00:04
Jamiet99uk	00:46
Bonatogether	00:43
snowy801        00:23
brainbomb	01:47
TheFlyingBoat	00:14
Chaqa	        00:22
ghug	        06:45
BusinessLamp	01:16
DemonRHK	00:58
celaph	        01:16
bozotheclown	01:16
damo666	        03:34
Maniac	        00:59
pyxxy	        03:31
rdrivera2005	03:14

Blamp, Celaph, bozo eh

Funny, those are 3 of the last 4 players to vote Kaka as well
Am I trying to insinuate something here? Probably. Someone do it for me

Snowy with the good detective work.

[brainbomb]

: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... elaph&g=73

Jamie talks a ton about celaph being scum
and approving of the celaph wagon
and encourages maniac to vote celaph

but just never seems to actually scumread celaph or do anything about it at all

[brainbomb]

celaph
Kakarroto
worcej
pyxxy
rdrivera2005

Remember that Bob has sensibly re-instated the "Must Vote" rule despite the meddling of the Council, so you will need to vote.

this looks like a post with Jamie listing celaph as his top scumread and yet this seems to just never be something Jamie cares about

[brainbomb]

A celaph info flip grows in merit. If celaph is in fact scum, there is a small group of people who would fit the 'saving my teammate'. If celaph is town, then at least we know we're all a bunch of idiots.

Is it worth killing another Town to find out that we are all idiots?

And now celaph is just another town

[BesharamSabi]

Why is blamp being so defensive over celaph and chaqa

what do you think

So blamp why were you being so defensive over celaph during the start of d2