M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[rdrivera2005]

Posted about Snowy.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Good morning, President Eden,



Don't be mad. I'm not trying to upset you. I was trying to make some constructive remarks.

I did not suggest "making up BS reasons". I suggested that in your place I might have gone back and looked over Bozo's posts with the assumption that they were coming from a town mindset, and including any details you noticed as a justification for a change in your read. That's not BS, that's real.

I am sorry if my remarks upset you. That was not my intention.

I promise not to kill Bozo today.

I would be grateful if you'd actually explain your read on Maniac.
Or is that a secret too?

I thought my implication was clear, albeit (deliberately) stated cryptically, in my very first comment about bozo today, where I said he had a 92.3% chance of being town by random chance, but was “>70%” to be town bearing in mind his behavior. If I’m starting from the premise of an innocent scan making him 92.3% likely to be innocent by random chance (ie, that I knew nothing about him based on his play this game, and only knew that roles had been randomly assigned), demoting him to the ballpark of 70% means that I think he’s (considerably) more likely than random to be the Godfather. That also means that but for the innocent scan, I would actually think that on balance he is guilty. Indeed, the only exonerating evidence I have is the innocent scan.

So with that in mind, why the fuck would I lie and try to spin his suspicious behavior into being not suspicious to obscure my scan? That’s actively detrimental to town because it would hurt the town’s ability to sort through what bozo had done to determine whether my scan was faulty or true. Never mind that in the context of the discussion, it would have only served to draw even more questions and attention to what I was doing. It would have been an unsatisfactory explanation, not only because it would be false, but because it would be fairly clear that I didn’t even believe it. That impacts MY credibility, and in a game with a Flipper(!) I can’t afford to do that. Indeed, having flimsy shitty reasons for not suspecting an objectively suspicious player and then going “psych I have a cop scan inno” would CERTAINLY lead to this town hanging me without a counterclaim, as traditionally heinously stupid as webDip towns are in these situations.

It makes MUCH more sense to simply declare my belief that bozo is town, assign a percentage to it that would invite people to search my ISO to figure out why I keep saying it, and then find the original comment and work out that I had scanned him innocent; OR in the alternative, have them simply go “ok whatever” and move on, as I am a universal townread and thus people have no reason to be overly concerned about what an odd townread of mine means for my alignment.

The fact of the matter is that webDip towns are fucking terrible at navigating Cop info. Absolutely, heinously terrible. Last game y’all hanged Maniac when he had been scanned town because Demon wrongly guessed that despite the innocent scan, Maniac was Godfather. There was no critical thinking or reflection that went into the decision. Y’all just fucking did it and it was fucking horrible. So that requires me to thread a very fine line where I need to be unambiguous about what is my info and what is my speculation, not lead y’all astray because you WILL fuck it up if I do, AMPLE past experience shows this… yet ALSO manage to do it in a way that doesn’t openly advertise the fact that I’m the Cop.

I thought I’d come up with a good way to handle it. I very brazenly hardclaimed Cop immediately and intended to take refuge in audacity. It worked to this point as I was not roleblocked and probably was never seriously discussed as a possible roleblock target. I stated my info in a way that again, was intentionally cryptic, but that I believe was fairly easily discoverable if you searched my ISO for my statements about bozo. “92.3%” is a really odd number to just pull out of a hat and when you realize it’s “12/13” it should instantly be obvious what that means.

But no, that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite happened. No one bothered to look it up. Instead, for reasons completely unexplained to this point Chaqa chose to advertise my PR soft very blatantly over and over again until I was forced to out to explain myself. That’s horrible. Then you Jamie decide to make it a topic of discussion again 9 hours later so that any mafia who happened to miss it the first time would be sure to catch the rerun.

It’s unbelievably fucking frustrating that at no point did anybody (except ghug, props to him) stop to think about any of this line of thought and just assumed there was no reason for me to make any of this play. I would think as a universal townread who had done a lot to set a pro town environment with a ton of experience in this game and superb results that maybe I would get some breathing room to play the game how I want. But no, for all Chaqa whines about people being ego invested and not letting others play their own way, what does he do when the chips are down but act exactly in accord with the behavior he allegedly despises.

Y’all ruined a good thing and sucked all drive out of me to play this game at 100% effort

I've highlighted the parts I take issue with.

My reasons are not unexplained. You were not being subtle. You were not unclear. It was blatantly obvious to me you were softing a Cop scan, and you know from experience how much shit I miss and how unperceptive I am. Therefore, it was crystal clear to me that everyone would figure it out, ESPECIALLy the mafia team who is actively looking for Cop information, which mean the cat is out of the bag.

To further my point, several others were like "wtf" and drew attention to your weird Bozo percentages:

he’s like 65-70% to be town

That's not an answer. What distinguishes him from worcej or Rivera?

he’s like 65-70% to be town

Uh what

@eden can you explain bozo in a serious manner beyond this 65-70% bs?

To think that it's my fault and all on me that this came out is stupid. Mafia knew, mafia would find out, and there's no reason to play all abstract and hedgy about it because you just decided to go "Bozo is town say no more fam totally a reason but tee hee let's not talk about it."

How the heck else is that supposed to be taken?

On the second highlight - bro, that is straight up cap. Where in all of this do you see ego from me? If anything, the ego is YOURS, for thinking your 69IQ play is a 200IQ play. Just crumb it in an EON post like any normal person would. instead you make it obvious and get upset when it's obvious and you've outed yourself as the Cop for no fucking reason.

I do agree with you that Eden is being overly harsh and unfair to you given that it was pretty blatantly obvious but I can understand why Eden is annoyed his plan went up in smoke. There's no need for this fight.

[damo666]

Willing to vote any of Kak/Demon/Snowy or at a push Bozo.

I will not be available for the last hour of the D.

FAO rdrivera

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm salty because you're being annoying.

Your line of thinking comes off like this: if celaph flips scum, worcej thinks I might be scummy and he's clearly scum because he hasn't investigated in thorough detail how I am clearly not scummy.

And yes, we do get along - that doesn't mean you're not a fuck stick right now.

Not "in thorough detail" but "AT ALL". You did not take the 20 seconds it would take, to check the bot to see if I'd given a reason to scumread Kak, before or during my vote. You just came out and said that if Celaph flips scum, that'll make me one of your top scumreads. Mate. It's either lazy or insincere, one or the other.

Because.

Celaph.

Isn't.

Flipped.

Yet.

As it stands, Celaph is not going to be flipped today either.

[BusinessLamp]

I'm trying to avoid making what seem to be a sudden swarm of endless mistakes here.

if you're just being honest and true with your intentions no mistake can be made

[TheFlyingBoat]

Glad to see the Sabi wgon dissipate.

Disappointed to see the Eden wagon emerge. I doubt all 4 people on that wagon are town.

Agreed on both counts

[TheFlyingBoat]

Glad to see the Sabi wgon dissipate.

Disappointed to see the Eden wagon emerge. I doubt all 4 people on that wagon are town.

Agreed on both counts

Oops quote replied the wrong post here

[pyxxy]

I'm trying to avoid making what seem to be a sudden swarm of endless mistakes here.

if you're just being honest and true with your intentions no mistake can be made

Stop trying to buddy brainbomb by quoting socrates

[TheFlyingBoat]

Day one wild scumteam guess

Snowy Kak Bozo demonRHK

Don't forget this one as well, rdr

[TheFlyingBoat]

Good morning, President Eden,



Don't be mad. I'm not trying to upset you. I was trying to make some constructive remarks.

I did not suggest "making up BS reasons". I suggested that in your place I might have gone back and looked over Bozo's posts with the assumption that they were coming from a town mindset, and including any details you noticed as a justification for a change in your read. That's not BS, that's real.

I am sorry if my remarks upset you. That was not my intention.

I promise not to kill Bozo today.

I would be grateful if you'd actually explain your read on Maniac.
Or is that a secret too?

I thought my implication was clear, albeit (deliberately) stated cryptically, in my very first comment about bozo today, where I said he had a 92.3% chance of being town by random chance, but was “>70%” to be town bearing in mind his behavior. If I’m starting from the premise of an innocent scan making him 92.3% likely to be innocent by random chance (ie, that I knew nothing about him based on his play this game, and only knew that roles had been randomly assigned), demoting him to the ballpark of 70% means that I think he’s (considerably) more likely than random to be the Godfather. That also means that but for the innocent scan, I would actually think that on balance he is guilty. Indeed, the only exonerating evidence I have is the innocent scan.

So with that in mind, why the fuck would I lie and try to spin his suspicious behavior into being not suspicious to obscure my scan? That’s actively detrimental to town because it would hurt the town’s ability to sort through what bozo had done to determine whether my scan was faulty or true. Never mind that in the context of the discussion, it would have only served to draw even more questions and attention to what I was doing. It would have been an unsatisfactory explanation, not only because it would be false, but because it would be fairly clear that I didn’t even believe it. That impacts MY credibility, and in a game with a Flipper(!) I can’t afford to do that. Indeed, having flimsy shitty reasons for not suspecting an objectively suspicious player and then going “psych I have a cop scan inno” would CERTAINLY lead to this town hanging me without a counterclaim, as traditionally heinously stupid as webDip towns are in these situations.

It makes MUCH more sense to simply declare my belief that bozo is town, assign a percentage to it that would invite people to search my ISO to figure out why I keep saying it, and then find the original comment and work out that I had scanned him innocent; OR in the alternative, have them simply go “ok whatever” and move on, as I am a universal townread and thus people have no reason to be overly concerned about what an odd townread of mine means for my alignment.

The fact of the matter is that webDip towns are fucking terrible at navigating Cop info. Absolutely, heinously terrible. Last game y’all hanged Maniac when he had been scanned town because Demon wrongly guessed that despite the innocent scan, Maniac was Godfather. There was no critical thinking or reflection that went into the decision. Y’all just fucking did it and it was fucking horrible. So that requires me to thread a very fine line where I need to be unambiguous about what is my info and what is my speculation, not lead y’all astray because you WILL fuck it up if I do, AMPLE past experience shows this… yet ALSO manage to do it in a way that doesn’t openly advertise the fact that I’m the Cop.

I thought I’d come up with a good way to handle it. I very brazenly hardclaimed Cop immediately and intended to take refuge in audacity. It worked to this point as I was not roleblocked and probably was never seriously discussed as a possible roleblock target. I stated my info in a way that again, was intentionally cryptic, but that I believe was fairly easily discoverable if you searched my ISO for my statements about bozo. “92.3%” is a really odd number to just pull out of a hat and when you realize it’s “12/13” it should instantly be obvious what that means.

But no, that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite happened. No one bothered to look it up. Instead, for reasons completely unexplained to this point Chaqa chose to advertise my PR soft very blatantly over and over again until I was forced to out to explain myself. That’s horrible. Then you Jamie decide to make it a topic of discussion again 9 hours later so that any mafia who happened to miss it the first time would be sure to catch the rerun.

It’s unbelievably fucking frustrating that at no point did anybody (except ghug, props to him) stop to think about any of this line of thought and just assumed there was no reason for me to make any of this play. I would think as a universal townread who had done a lot to set a pro town environment with a ton of experience in this game and superb results that maybe I would get some breathing room to play the game how I want. But no, for all Chaqa whines about people being ego invested and not letting others play their own way, what does he do when the chips are down but act exactly in accord with the behavior he allegedly despises.

Y’all ruined a good thing and sucked all drive out of me to play this game at 100% effort

I've highlighted the parts I take issue with.

My reasons are not unexplained. You were not being subtle. You were not unclear. It was blatantly obvious to me you were softing a Cop scan, and you know from experience how much shit I miss and how unperceptive I am. Therefore, it was crystal clear to me that everyone would figure it out, ESPECIALLy the mafia team who is actively looking for Cop information, which mean the cat is out of the bag.

To further my point, several others were like "wtf" and drew attention to your weird Bozo percentages:

he’s like 65-70% to be town

That's not an answer. What distinguishes him from worcej or Rivera?

he’s like 65-70% to be town

Uh what

@eden can you explain bozo in a serious manner beyond this 65-70% bs?

To think that it's my fault and all on me that this came out is stupid. Mafia knew, mafia would find out, and there's no reason to play all abstract and hedgy about it because you just decided to go "Bozo is town say no more fam totally a reason but tee hee let's not talk about it."

How the heck else is that supposed to be taken?

On the second highlight - bro, that is straight up cap. Where in all of this do you see ego from me? If anything, the ego is YOURS, for thinking your 69IQ play is a 200IQ play. Just crumb it in an EON post like any normal person would. instead you make it obvious and get upset when it's obvious and you've outed yourself as the Cop for no fucking reason.

I do agree with you that Eden is being overly harsh and unfair to you given that it was pretty blatantly obvious but I can understand why Eden is annoyed his plan went up in smoke. There's no need for this fight.

[BusinessLamp]

anyway that was a fun experiment, back to regularly scheduled programming

##vote maniac

[pyxxy]

I'm way behind. Got to the top of 101 but alcohol and tried. I'll reup in bites in the morning.

I got you.

Demon had a low post count but his posts were absolute bangers so there’s nothing to worry about there.

If celaph is the DK and flips town then kill Demon 2m

These are the two most important (imo) Demon mentions and neither actually asks you about anything.

So go ahead and catch up when you have the time, and we'll all just have to wait for the next Demon banger.

Are we ever going to get another Demon banger...

[TheFlyingBoat]

Also, my catchup focus:

In regards to Sabi D1:
Sabi's D1 strikes me exactly like what they did the first two games that they played - if they got scummed, they took it personally and freaked the fuck out. BB had a couple good points to regarding this.

I also think Chaqa's right that Sabi created a meta/vibe that they exploited when they were scum last time. The whole public freakout about be scummed is easy to duplicate and shouldn't be an auto-town lock like some people have done.

I'm more of a town-lean on these reactions with a bit of to ensure I don't just default them.

The SIMP score:
That was fucking hilarious. Well done Bona.

Wow can't believe I'm mostly agreeing with you here. Though I will say the public freak out thing is not why I town read them

[TheFlyingBoat]

OK so here's the thing I have been sitting in for the last day or two ( I even hinted it):

The connection between pyxxy and boatman.

You may be asking, why is Sabi trying to connect them?

Well gather around the fire folks, here's another one of my maybe plausible theory:

Boatman and Pyxxy are probably as close as friends as me and Pyxxy are.

Pyxxy introduction post: no mention of possible connection with boatman but he named me.

OK maybe it's a wild coincidence but the simp analysis shows pyxxy mentioning Bona a lot.

What's the connection? Bona, boatman, pyxxy (and ghug) are all on my discord server and we are friends. Tho Bona and ghug are less close friends to pyxxy than boatman and I are.

Maybe it's wild coincidence but if you check the sheet ™ they barely interact, even in passing. They do make a joke at my expense and about my cringe humor.

Anyway that's a piece of the puzzle.

What does it mean?

Either they are scum mates or just coincidence.

Maybe out of game friendships should not have a stake in this.

Anyway I have a meeting so I can't expand on this due a couple of hours.

I mean pyxxy has posted very little hasn't given much to engage with. The few times he's asked me questions on reads I've responded and I've speculated on him and have called out others for claiming he is townier than he is.

[TheFlyingBoat]

who has rdrivera as town and why

I think most people have him as null as he was mostly gone for carnival. There is something that is pinging me as off given he seems to be making these claims about who has said what and where they must have said it that are just really easily disproven. I can't find the scum motivation behind it besides trying to push miskills and can't find a decent town explanation as rdr generally in the past was a slow thoughtful town player whose posts while infrequent had thought behind them. His recent posts had none of that clearly.

[TheFlyingBoat]

As usual, we have an opposite opinion: I think celaph is the better info flip.

Celaph's result would help shine some light onto Maniac, Chaqa, Jamie, bozo, sabi, and TFB in my views of EOD1.

Do me a favour and list it out considering you have already done the work.

What can we infer about who as a result of the following:

a) celaph scumflip
b) celaph townflip
c) TFB scumslip
d) TFB townslip ?

TIA.

a) Jamie/Blamp/Sabi > Maniac > TFB >>>> bozo in likelihood to be scum.
b) Chaqa/Demon become hard-lock town for me. BB gets a stronge town read.

I assume you mean flip for c and d? I'll proceed with that:
c) Sabi looks the worst and comes off as trying to save teammate. Maniac/Demon/Chaqa look bad, but there is easier town logic to justify their moves.
d) I don't see anything gained by a town flip of TFB.

Anyways, ##vote celaph

Agreed on b/c/and partially d. I think you gain some info around EoD1 re:Celaph, but yeah. Your opinion on A makes little sense this far removed from EoD1. I think my explanation of why at varying times I liked Kak and Chaqa as votes over Celaph was pretty well laid out and explained, while at the same time I was clearly saying I still had a scum read on Celaph. I did more of the same during the night. I then voted him all day today. Not sure what more you want from me

[Jamiet99uk]

Glad to see the Sabi wgon dissipate.

Disappointed to see the Eden wagon emerge. I doubt all 4 people on that wagon are town.

Agreed on both counts

Why are you "agreeing" with this post now, towards the end of D2, as though it's a recent post or something?

There hasn't been an Eden wagon today. That's stuff from the middle of D1.

[TheFlyingBoat]

the QRD (and then I REALLY REALLY need to get something done today smh) on where I’m at:

I do think Kak died as a result of mafia saving a teammate.
Decreasingly I think that teammate was celaph. Increasingly I think it was Boat. Not to dictate what anybody does, but it would be really helpful if we knew both of their alignments by the start of the next day. I had intended to take care of that myself… but I strongly doubt I’ll be allowed to do so now.

But regardless, some considerations:
• if celaph is mafia and Boat is town, Chaqa’s analysis on celaph being mafia is very strong.
• if Boat is mafia and celaph is town, then I think Maniac is also suspicious for reasons spelled out by Demon and Lamp. incidentally I think both of those guys are town for spelling that out.
• if they’re BOTH mafia… idk man that’s wild.
• if they’re both town then oops lol. Maniac can still be sus here but I would re-examine everything if that’s so.

Thank you for this post, finally someone explains what they expect from killing Celaph instead of just repeating "it will sure show a lot, haha".

Chaqa kinda did it a while ago. I encourage a read of it

[Jamiet99uk]

Glad to see the Sabi wgon dissipate.

Disappointed to see the Eden wagon emerge. I doubt all 4 people on that wagon are town.

Agreed on both counts

Oops quote replied the wrong post here

Hmm.

What did you mean to do instead?

[TheFlyingBoat]

Glad to see the Sabi wgon dissipate.

Disappointed to see the Eden wagon emerge. I doubt all 4 people on that wagon are town.

Agreed on both counts

Why are you "agreeing" with this post now, towards the end of D2, as though it's a recent post or something?

There hasn't been an Eden wagon today. That's stuff from the middle of D1.

I literally said it was a misquote. I was flipping around tabs on my phone and went to the wrong one and hit send.