M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[bozotheclown]

Good morning, President Eden,

woke up. saw Jamie’s message. got mad. ruminated on situation all the way to work. got more mad. don’t feel like reading game. am mad. probably cannot objectively read Chaqa or Jamie rn. have I mentioned mad.

@Jamie — to answer your specific strategy, I think making up BS reasons to townread bozo would have been orders of magnitude worse than what I did. both as a general practice in a world where there’s a Godfather and in the specific scenario where I have four people crawling up my ass about not wanting to kill bozo. I am extremely annoyed, to put it lightly, that my situation has been prominently dragged to light—AGAIN—because someone else, who also doesn’t have any of my info or perspective on the game, thinks they know enough about my situation to decide that I played it wrong and that they absolutely need to blow up my play because they personally disagree with it.

Don't be mad. I'm not trying to upset you. I was trying to make some constructive remarks.

I did not suggest "making up BS reasons". I suggested that in your place I might have gone back and looked over Bozo's posts with the assumption that they were coming from a town mindset, and including any details you noticed as a justification for a change in your read. That's not BS, that's real.

I am sorry if my remarks upset you. That was not my intention.

I promise not to kill Bozo today.

I would be grateful if you'd actually explain your read on Maniac.
Or is that a secret too?

I thought my implication was clear, albeit (deliberately) stated cryptically, in my very first comment about bozo today, where I said he had a 92.3% chance of being town by random chance, but was “>70%” to be town bearing in mind his behavior. If I’m starting from the premise of an innocent scan making him 92.3% likely to be innocent by random chance (ie, that I knew nothing about him based on his play this game, and only knew that roles had been randomly assigned), demoting him to the ballpark of 70% means that I think he’s (considerably) more likely than random to be the Godfather. That also means that but for the innocent scan, I would actually think that on balance he is guilty. Indeed, the only exonerating evidence I have is the innocent scan.

So with that in mind, why the fuck would I lie and try to spin his suspicious behavior into being not suspicious to obscure my scan? That’s actively detrimental to town because it would hurt the town’s ability to sort through what bozo had done to determine whether my scan was faulty or true. Never mind that in the context of the discussion, it would have only served to draw even more questions and attention to what I was doing. It would have been an unsatisfactory explanation, not only because it would be false, but because it would be fairly clear that I didn’t even believe it. That impacts MY credibility, and in a game with a Flipper(!) I can’t afford to do that. Indeed, having flimsy shitty reasons for not suspecting an objectively suspicious player and then going “psych I have a cop scan inno” would CERTAINLY lead to this town hanging me without a counterclaim, as traditionally heinously stupid as webDip towns are in these situations.

It makes MUCH more sense to simply declare my belief that bozo is town, assign a percentage to it that would invite people to search my ISO to figure out why I keep saying it, and then find the original comment and work out that I had scanned him innocent; OR in the alternative, have them simply go “ok whatever” and move on, as I am a universal townread and thus people have no reason to be overly concerned about what an odd townread of mine means for my alignment.

The fact of the matter is that webDip towns are fucking terrible at navigating Cop info. Absolutely, heinously terrible. Last game y’all hanged Maniac when he had been scanned town because Demon wrongly guessed that despite the innocent scan, Maniac was Godfather. There was no critical thinking or reflection that went into the decision. Y’all just fucking did it and it was fucking horrible. So that requires me to thread a very fine line where I need to be unambiguous about what is my info and what is my speculation, not lead y’all astray because you WILL fuck it up if I do, AMPLE past experience shows this… yet ALSO manage to do it in a way that doesn’t openly advertise the fact that I’m the Cop.

I thought I’d come up with a good way to handle it. I very brazenly hardclaimed Cop immediately and intended to take refuge in audacity. It worked to this point as I was not roleblocked and probably was never seriously discussed as a possible roleblock target. I stated my info in a way that again, was intentionally cryptic, but that I believe was fairly easily discoverable if you searched my ISO for my statements about bozo. “92.3%” is a really odd number to just pull out of a hat and when you realize it’s “12/13” it should instantly be obvious what that means.

But no, that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite happened. No one bothered to look it up. Instead, for reasons completely unexplained to this point Chaqa chose to advertise my PR soft very blatantly over and over again until I was forced to out to explain myself. That’s horrible. Then you Jamie decide to make it a topic of discussion again 9 hours later so that any mafia who happened to miss it the first time would be sure to catch the rerun.

It’s unbelievably fucking frustrating that at no point did anybody (except ghug, props to him) stop to think about any of this line of thought and just assumed there was no reason for me to make any of this play. I would think as a universal townread who had done a lot to set a pro town environment with a ton of experience in this game and superb results that maybe I would get some breathing room to play the game how I want. But no, for all Chaqa whines about people being ego invested and not letting others play their own way, what does he do when the chips are down but act exactly in accord with the behavior he allegedly despises.

Y’all ruined a good thing and sucked all drive out of me to play this game at 100% effort

I think any number of players who did not comment on it may have realized what you were saying and did the "right" thing by not commenting. It was obvious to me, but of course it was about me, so I do not know how obvious it would be to someone else.

[BusinessLamp]

Combine this with:

+0.5 to getting another wagon going, boat seems like a fine choice to drive again

why is boat a good wagon? you drop this in and never mention him again. agreeing with the only person pushing you as scum on their other option seems a strange instinct

It's because I agreed with your opinion on TFB's post here, blamp:

Somebody thought a lot about how he would deal with snowy if he were scum...

this is honestly really salient to me lol this TFB post is weird af

this is blatantly false. TFB's post happened 5 pages after yours, don't fake reasoning.

##vote pyxxy

[brainbomb]

rather than spam the game with every posy pyxxy gave a +1 too here are three in particular that im curious what they liked from these posts and why they selectively picked these

You should probably start with doing this instead of what you did

I think brain meant to attach them but just forgot :'(

Just caught up on the thread and I was excited to finally get some attention besides a few pats on the head and "oh what a good newbie town you are" especially from one as lauded as bb

if you had just caught up you have seen the three posts clearly marked right there.

but who am I lauded by? Where is this reputation coming from?

[worcej]

There's no need to be so fucking rude.

That's incredibly rich coming from you

I haven't called you any rude names at any point.

Why are you suddenly being so salty?

I remember a time I thought you and I got along pretty well.

I'm salty because you're being annoying.

Your line of thinking comes off like this: if celaph flips scum, worcej thinks I might be scummy and he's clearly scum because he hasn't investigated in thorough detail how I am clearly not scummy.

And yes, we do get along - that doesn't mean you're not a fuck stick right now.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Regarding TFB:
I get the feeling that he is using activity as a metric that he can comfortably discuss reads around without being forced to construct a full read around. It formed the basis for a significant portion of D1 scumreads of Kak and myself. And it feels like he keeps coming back to it to justify his scumreads on people. He sussed my inactivity N1, and again when he voted me SoD2, and again in response to Eden's comment on night solving. Most recently, he called Blamp and Bozo for disappearing at SoN1 as scummy.

I also think that he is a good candidate for being saved D1, though I'm less convinced than some that someone was saved.

##vote TFB

This is really lazy. I do use inactivity sometimes, but not really more than anyone else. My final Kak vote was based on much more than inactivity and I was probably just about the only one to both seriously engage with Eden's criticism of the case and then also provide an in depth serious justification of why Kak's return post was scum. While I like my Chaqa case less now given today's posts that was not based on it either at the time. Same thing for my evolution on Demon. Same thing for my declared town reads. Yes inactivity does form a portion of my scum reads, especially at targeted times, and you do have a good defense that you tend to always be inactive at night, but to argue that I haven't made real cases on anyone and have just coasted on inactivity calls requires one to not read my posts at all

[worcej]

Good morning, President Eden,



Don't be mad. I'm not trying to upset you. I was trying to make some constructive remarks.

I did not suggest "making up BS reasons". I suggested that in your place I might have gone back and looked over Bozo's posts with the assumption that they were coming from a town mindset, and including any details you noticed as a justification for a change in your read. That's not BS, that's real.

I am sorry if my remarks upset you. That was not my intention.

I promise not to kill Bozo today.

I would be grateful if you'd actually explain your read on Maniac.
Or is that a secret too?

I thought my implication was clear, albeit (deliberately) stated cryptically, in my very first comment about bozo today, where I said he had a 92.3% chance of being town by random chance, but was “>70%” to be town bearing in mind his behavior. If I’m starting from the premise of an innocent scan making him 92.3% likely to be innocent by random chance (ie, that I knew nothing about him based on his play this game, and only knew that roles had been randomly assigned), demoting him to the ballpark of 70% means that I think he’s (considerably) more likely than random to be the Godfather. That also means that but for the innocent scan, I would actually think that on balance he is guilty. Indeed, the only exonerating evidence I have is the innocent scan.

So with that in mind, why the fuck would I lie and try to spin his suspicious behavior into being not suspicious to obscure my scan? That’s actively detrimental to town because it would hurt the town’s ability to sort through what bozo had done to determine whether my scan was faulty or true. Never mind that in the context of the discussion, it would have only served to draw even more questions and attention to what I was doing. It would have been an unsatisfactory explanation, not only because it would be false, but because it would be fairly clear that I didn’t even believe it. That impacts MY credibility, and in a game with a Flipper(!) I can’t afford to do that. Indeed, having flimsy shitty reasons for not suspecting an objectively suspicious player and then going “psych I have a cop scan inno” would CERTAINLY lead to this town hanging me without a counterclaim, as traditionally heinously stupid as webDip towns are in these situations.

It makes MUCH more sense to simply declare my belief that bozo is town, assign a percentage to it that would invite people to search my ISO to figure out why I keep saying it, and then find the original comment and work out that I had scanned him innocent; OR in the alternative, have them simply go “ok whatever” and move on, as I am a universal townread and thus people have no reason to be overly concerned about what an odd townread of mine means for my alignment.

The fact of the matter is that webDip towns are fucking terrible at navigating Cop info. Absolutely, heinously terrible. Last game y’all hanged Maniac when he had been scanned town because Demon wrongly guessed that despite the innocent scan, Maniac was Godfather. There was no critical thinking or reflection that went into the decision. Y’all just fucking did it and it was fucking horrible. So that requires me to thread a very fine line where I need to be unambiguous about what is my info and what is my speculation, not lead y’all astray because you WILL fuck it up if I do, AMPLE past experience shows this… yet ALSO manage to do it in a way that doesn’t openly advertise the fact that I’m the Cop.

I thought I’d come up with a good way to handle it. I very brazenly hardclaimed Cop immediately and intended to take refuge in audacity. It worked to this point as I was not roleblocked and probably was never seriously discussed as a possible roleblock target. I stated my info in a way that again, was intentionally cryptic, but that I believe was fairly easily discoverable if you searched my ISO for my statements about bozo. “92.3%” is a really odd number to just pull out of a hat and when you realize it’s “12/13” it should instantly be obvious what that means.

But no, that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite happened. No one bothered to look it up. Instead, for reasons completely unexplained to this point Chaqa chose to advertise my PR soft very blatantly over and over again until I was forced to out to explain myself. That’s horrible. Then you Jamie decide to make it a topic of discussion again 9 hours later so that any mafia who happened to miss it the first time would be sure to catch the rerun.

It’s unbelievably fucking frustrating that at no point did anybody (except ghug, props to him) stop to think about any of this line of thought and just assumed there was no reason for me to make any of this play. I would think as a universal townread who had done a lot to set a pro town environment with a ton of experience in this game and superb results that maybe I would get some breathing room to play the game how I want. But no, for all Chaqa whines about people being ego invested and not letting others play their own way, what does he do when the chips are down but act exactly in accord with the behavior he allegedly despises.

Y’all ruined a good thing and sucked all drive out of me to play this game at 100% effort

I think any number of players who did not comment on it may have realized what you were saying and did the "right" thing by not commenting. It was obvious to me, but of course it was about me, so I do not know how obvious it would be to someone else.

It was obvious when percentages were used.

[BesharamSabi]

Don't have time to catch up, will try to before EOD.

I just wanted to say after thinking about it that maybe tfb was buddying/pocketing/whatever the term is me. Unfortunately I'm easy to pocket as ghug/DeathLlama8 have done in my previous town games by trying to make me better at reasoning and what not.

Add in the fact that tfb disappeared but was active on discord last night (which I guess should not be evidence in mafia so this shouldn't be evidence but I just wanted to point that out), maybe tfb isn't in my towncore.

I do need to decide between celaph and boatman and maniac for my vote today. Will need to do a pros and cons about what info/likelihood of scum is between the three.

For now I am #Unvote

[BusinessLamp]

BB was right about pyxxy all along

[TheFlyingBoat]

I'm not seeing how boatman is scum this game.

What am I missing

On my side I want a viable wagon to Celaph so we have an EOD and I didn't like the way TFB answered about why he would not fear kill Snowy. He answered me that many people scumread Snowy, but it just doesn't match what I was feeling at night.

Instead of basing things off of what you're feeling why don't you read what people were saying? Plenty of people expressed suspicion in Snowy. If you go back and use the bot you'll find out what I say is true
this is just like Snowy complaining I never mentioned him when I had one of the highest engagements with him of any player. It's just factually false. You're also supposed to be a lot more rational than this rdr so what is going on?

[damo666]

I'm not seeing how boatman is scum this game.

What am I missing

On my side I want a viable wagon to Celaph so we have an EOD and I didn't like the way TFB answered about why he would not fear kill Snowy. He answered me that many people scumread Snowy, but it just doesn't match what I was feeling at night.

Instead of basing things off of what you're feeling why don't you read what people were saying? Plenty of people expressed suspicion in Snowy. If you go back and use the bot you'll find out what I say is true
this is just like Snowy complaining I never mentioned him when I had one of the highest engagements with him of any player. It's just factually false. You're also supposed to be a lot more rational than this rdr so what is going on?

Mardi Gras?

[Jamiet99uk]

Combine this with:

why is boat a good wagon? you drop this in and never mention him again. agreeing with the only person pushing you as scum on their other option seems a strange instinct

It's because I agreed with your opinion on TFB's post here, blamp:

this is honestly really salient to me lol this TFB post is weird af

this is blatantly false. TFB's post happened 5 pages after yours, don't fake reasoning.

##vote pyxxy

Ooo hot take

[President Eden]

this man literally ctrl-f’d “tfb” and nobody will convince me otherwise

[brainbomb]

BB was right about pyxxy all along

not today skip

[pyxxy]

Combine this with:

why is boat a good wagon? you drop this in and never mention him again. agreeing with the only person pushing you as scum on their other option seems a strange instinct

It's because I agreed with your opinion on TFB's post here, blamp:

this is honestly really salient to me lol this TFB post is weird af

this is blatantly false. TFB's post happened 5 pages after yours, don't fake reasoning.

##vote pyxxy

Omg no not like "I saw your post and agreed" like I also thought TFB's post was sus but I lurked for most of D1, started feeling myself in N1, and now have completely embarassed myself into baiting your vote here in D2.

Honestly well played to brainbomb for poking me into doing this to myself XD

Brainbomb, I'll double respond here. Your posts are legendary on this forum. I've been on webdip long enough to know that.

[Jamiet99uk]

That's incredibly rich coming from you

I haven't called you any rude names at any point.

Why are you suddenly being so salty?

I remember a time I thought you and I got along pretty well.

I'm salty because you're being annoying.

Your line of thinking comes off like this: if celaph flips scum, worcej thinks I might be scummy and he's clearly scum because he hasn't investigated in thorough detail how I am clearly not scummy.

And yes, we do get along - that doesn't mean you're not a fuck stick right now.

Not "in thorough detail" but "AT ALL". You did not take the 20 seconds it would take, to check the bot to see if I'd given a reason to scumread Kak, before or during my vote. You just came out and said that if Celaph flips scum, that'll make me one of your top scumreads. Mate. It's either lazy or insincere, one or the other.

[brainbomb]

Combine this with:



It's because I agreed with your opinion on TFB's post here, blamp:

this is blatantly false. TFB's post happened 5 pages after yours, don't fake reasoning.

##vote pyxxy

Omg no not like "I saw your post and agreed" like I also thought TFB's post was sus but I lurked for most of D1, started feeling myself in N1, and now have completely embarassed myself into baiting your vote here in D2.

Honestly well played to brainbomb for poking me into doing this to myself XD

Brainbomb, I'll double respond here. Your posts are legendary on this forum. I've been on webdip long enough to know that.

Thoughts without content are empty, intuitions without concepts are blind.

[brainbomb]

thanks pyx I didnt know I had a fan club. This changes my read of you completely because I will townread people who are kind to me and make me feel wise and fun

[BusinessLamp]

Omg no not like "I saw your post and agreed" like I also thought TFB's post was sus but I lurked for most of D1, started feeling myself in N1, and now have completely embarassed myself into baiting your vote here in D2.

Honestly well played to brainbomb for poking me into doing this to myself XD

Brainbomb, I'll double respond here. Your posts are legendary on this forum. I've been on webdip long enough to know that.

that's not what i'm saying. I asked you why you agreed with Brain at that time that TFB was a good wagon. You have now said twice that it was because you thought TFB's post was sus. That post hadn't happened yet. So that means your initial agreement with TFB being a good wagon was fake, and now you're caught trying to come up with a justification.

[TheFlyingBoat]

I suspect that all 3 of the main wagons with 30 minutes left (Kak, TFB, and myself), with the possible exception of mine, were prone to collapse if they lost momentum. TFB already had two votes not from direct scumreads, Chaqa and Bozo. And given Kak's lack of posts, no one really believed he was scum, only that they wanted to pressure him. I have the exception for my wagon given that a number of rather vocal people (you and Chaqa to name two) were putting sus on me.

TFB makes Chaqa a viable wagon temporarily. Chaqa becomes unfavorable as people consolidate elsewhere. Looking at the comments around Chaqa I don't think that the active people scumread him and at best saw him as an available cw who is better than someone else. I see nothing scummy about the way this wagon fizzled out.

Until Kak next posts, we see people consolidating onto me and TFB. We see Maniac join TFB's wagon inline with his previously expressed preferences. Yes, I still do believe his explanations for not voting Chaqa though I think they are suspicious. We see Sabi join my wagon as dey oppose the TFB wagon. And Demon consolidates onto my wagon from Bozo's. All that activity strikes me as normal consolidation and protection of townreads.

After Kak votes, the next series of votes all come on him. In my mind, people rushed to Kak's wagon because his wishy washy town felt scummy and they were uncertain on everyone else. As I've mentioned earlier, I think this is best highlighted by Sabi's comments from the time. I think deir switch from me to Kak exemplified the attitude that people were no longer just voting to protect their townreads, but rather because they scumread someone.

If anyone is protecting anyone, it's Chaqa protecting TFB here. There is certainly an argument that he started the momentum swinging towards Kak with his vote making that cw only to swing back to me once he know that TFB was safe. I think Chaqa's earlier vote for Blamp can also be seen as protecting TFB as it took momentum away from the latter's wagon. I do think it's worth knowing mentioning that after voting Blamp, Chaqa doesn't mention him again until 30 seconds before voting Kak. This can be seen as scum Chaqa correctly reading that he only needs to take momentum away from TFB wagon or it can be read as town Chaqa wanting his vote elsewhere (it was initially an OMGUS vote) with no intention to create a cw. I lean the former, but I might be biased as it aligns with my other reads.

I mean claiming that Maniac's vote was in line with expressed preferences at the time (emphasis on tense) is just a straight up lie. His later explanation of it was fake as hell and I'm not sure why you're willing to give it so much credence?

The rest of your summary seems mostly plausible if one were to assume you were town.The final conclusion regarding Chaqa seems kinda silly though. Chaqa was the one who started the momentum on me in the first place with what felt at the time like a pretty aggressive chainsaw of me. I wasn't under any pressure until him, bozo, snowy, and you all jump on me in the span of 15 minutes as we enter the final hour of the day.

[bozotheclown]

The Case for Flipping Celaph Part 1: If he flips scum
Prelude: I'm not going to go through every post by post and break it down that way, more I want to point out several players and moments where I think something is pretty weird, and it all revolves around Celaph.

Celaph wasn't much of a wagon for most of Day 1, despite a lot of suspicion on him. Eventually, this formed into a small wagon with Bona and Eden, soon joined by brain. At this time, TFB and Kak were 4-4 with no clear leader presenting. Some vote moves by TFB, Maniac, and Sabi pushed things to:

TFB 5 - Celaph 4 - Chaqa 3 - Kak 2

As I moved off the TFB wagon, Demon and Kak moved onto celaph, bringing him to a 6-4 lead over TFB (with me at 3 and Kak at 2).

At this time, I made my vote for Kak, to see what would happen.

Point of Interest #1: Sabi switches from celaph, to Kak, by saying "I don't like this TFB wagon". Why make this move? TFB wasn't the leading wagon, momentum was against celaph, not TFB. I think that if celaph is scum, Sabi is astronomically more likely to be scum.

TFB switches to Kak (he had not expressed much sus on celaph). Maniac also moves to Kak (as he had townread celaph) and celaph votes Kak (self preservation makes sense).

I switch back from Kak to celaph.

It is now tied 6-6. Typically, when presented with a tie, people will move to break the tie in whatever way momentum seems to shift.

Point of Interest #2: Bozo, who hadn't posted more than twice in the last 3 hours, comes in and votes for Kak. He had never once mentioned either Kak or celaph prior to this. Bozo - why did you cast this vote?

Point of Interest #3: Blamp votes for Kak. This is really interesting, given that just an hour and a half earlier, Blamp had given his vote preferences as "Chaqa > celaph > Demon":


Then Jamie votes Kak. Now, Jamie had barely mentioned either celaph or Kak, and with two voters already making the Kak choice, I don't really find Jamie's vote here that suspicious.

But I really do share Snowy's concerns that there is some link between Celaph, Sabi, Bozo, and Blamp. Maybe not all four of them, but if celaph is scum, I am pretty certain at least two of them are his teammates.

I voted for Kakarroto because Kakarroto and celaph were tied with less than 1 minute left.

Willing to expand why you picked Kak over celaph?

I thought Kakarroto was marginally more likely than celaph to be mafia based on Kakarroto not voting all day then coming in at EOD and voting for the top wagon.