M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[brainbomb]

Are you scum again son?

I was really scared to read my role pm, but we good lol.

What were you scared of seeing? and what do you consider stressful?

obviously you dont have to roleclaim but what do you fear more?

[pyxxy]

Question for people who have played with town!Celaph before:

How does he react when he's the lead wagon?

Does he seemingly consistent (low) level of posting regardless of the implied pressure of 5 votes feel normal?

Is he the kind of town player that freaks out if they're getting wrongly voted on?

Or more inclined to keep his cool so as not to freak people out and convince them that he's scum?

I guess this could apply to scum!Celaph past behavior too, with the inverse conclusions applying.

I ask because I'm starting to waver on my Celaph vote. It's been 32 of the 48 hours in D2 and I don't have any sort of read on him. To be clear, my vote has not just been a ploy to pressure Celaph and see if he gives a tell towards town or scum. I think the train of votes switching off Celaph at EOD1 feels important and killing Celaph might be another piece to solving that puzzle.

## vote celaph

Why do you scum read me?

You've asserted that you see my death as a forgone conclusion, yet you don't seem to care about the outcome of that conclusion nor believe that the conclusion will go your way.

But. This is the most "aggressive" Celaph post and honestly it reads as pretty reasonable. If people were voting for me, I would engage with them and ask why.

I guess I'm asking some other people to ISO D2 Celaph and post their feelings about the ISO.

(I wrote this whole post, refreshed, and it looks like brainbomb is on a similar train of thought as me )

[ghug]

Question for people who have played with town!Celaph before:

How does he react when he's the lead wagon?

Does he seemingly consistent (low) level of posting regardless of the implied pressure of 5 votes feel normal?

Is he the kind of town player that freaks out if they're getting wrongly voted on?

Or more inclined to keep his cool so as not to freak people out and convince them that he's scum?

I guess this could apply to scum!Celaph past behavior too, with the inverse conclusions applying.

I ask because I'm starting to waver on my Celaph vote. It's been 32 of the 48 hours in D2 and I don't have any sort of read on him. To be clear, my vote has not just been a ploy to pressure Celaph and see if he gives a tell towards town or scum. I think the train of votes switching off Celaph at EOD1 feels important and killing Celaph might be another piece to solving that puzzle.

## vote celaph

Why do you scum read me?

You've asserted that you see my death as a forgone conclusion, yet you don't seem to care about the outcome of that conclusion nor believe that the conclusion will go your way.

But. This is the most "aggressive" Celaph post and honestly it reads as pretty reasonable. If people were voting for me, I would engage with them and ask why.

I guess I'm asking some other people to ISO D2 Celaph and post their feelings about the ISO.

(I wrote this whole post, refreshed, and it looks like brainbomb is on a similar train of thought as me )

I've never seen celaph get emotional or heated, really. I expect disengagement as scum and composure as town.

[celaph]

My reason for scumreading pyxxy is their selective application of giving +1’s to posts througout the game without interacting with said posts or explaining what they liked about them. It feels like laughing about things without saying why those things would be funny. if you go look at who is giving +1’s there are numerous bizarre instances where pyxxy is liking posts they arent even addressing.

This doesn't strike me as particularly scummy. There are plenty of posts that I +1 that I don't feel the need to otherwise comment on. Sometimes it's because someone made a joke I found funny, sometimes because someone has made a post that agrees with me, and sometimes a comment that I liked, but didn't have anything to add. What did you think of my town Pyxxy argument?

[celaph]

I agree with this

Inb4 “it’s scummy”

the thing that actually raises my eyebrows here a bit is, you very specifically demurred on pursuing your alleged bait at EOD1 until celaph flips because you “don’t know” that celaph is mafia. but you’re treating his flip like a foregone conclusion. so while we have 24+ hours left, what’s the harm in pursuing your angle now? surely you can find something of value to derive from your play even if celaph flips town?

Well yeah, but how am I to know which conclusions to draw before he flips?

So let’s get the flip over with so we can analyze

In the context of your and blamp's earlier conversation about what I'm looking from you Chaqa, I've gone ahead and simplified a few PE quotes. The point isn't that you've should have already made up your made already, but you should have a basic sense of how your beliefs will change depending on the outcome and you should act in accordance to that sense.

[Demon town if Celaph scum]

[Maniac scum if Celaph scum]

[TFB scum if celaph town. May still be scum if celaph scum.]

[celaph]

@celaph: I 100% promise you that I will give a good faith consideration of not voting you today if you can give me a plausible narrative for what happened D1 in the world where you are town. If you’re town then you theoretically know by far the most of anybody on this subject, and it’s my biggest hang up on not moving off you, despite acknowledging that your recent posting has been more compelling. Help me help you help me catch mafia.

Will get to this tonight. Also need to do a proper reread of TFB as it's probably relevant.

[celaph]

based on the +1s pyxxy liked all of
kakarrotos posts early game and gave them all a +1

where does pyxxy go from liking the way kak is playing to progressing that kak is OKAY! lets kill this guy sure!

I agree that pyxxy should answer for his actions, but there is nothing here with this +1 thing. As far as I can tell, pyxxy +1'd 3 of Kak's posts. The first one was Kak's opener which was purely fun flavor. The third one was Kak making a joke about among us. The second one is a post with legitimate reads, but it also happens to be a post with bright colors and fun comments. I think all 3 of those +1s can be explained by Pyxxy appreciated the post from a fun and/or funny perspective. Not of that suggests he townread Kak.

[celaph]

When did I pledge to murder anyone who tried to flip Celaph?

More lies from Jamie (The person who policy daykilled my good buddy Flum for lying last game).

I'm now really eggstatic to be voting Jamie

[Jamie quotes Maniac]

Yeah, fair dues, but apart from those examples, when have I ever said I’d daykill anyone who voted for Celaph?
[/quote]

Maniac: I would never do such a thing. Show me the evidence.
Jamie: *Shows the evidence*
Maniac: Fair point. Now, ignoring all that evidence, what evidence do you have?

[damo666]

to build upon what snowy pointed out, night solving is a powerful way to sort people because the mafia just don’t get as heavily invested in keeping up appearances during the night. the night phase is when they get to do their planning for how to attack town, and they’re often very busy figuring out how they want to frame the narrative, how they need to use their night actions, scanning the thread for PRs, etc. so naturally, their attention is diverted.

additionally, even on a “bad” day for town (mislynch), town gets a new piece of hard information that can help them figure out the puzzle, as well as a lot of soft information (votes and their movement, particularly near EOD). there’s a lot to unpack for town. but because mafia already knows what happened, it’s not nearly as exciting. town motivation naturally increases.

accordingly, I tend to townread active, solving nightposters more heavily, and in particular tend to be more suspicious of prior nulls who aren’t around.

and with all that in mind, the players jumping off the page as fitting the mafia tendency are:

- celaph
- worcej
- rivera
- Maniac
- damo
- bozo

pyxxy I guess too but he kinda gets a newbie pass imo. he clearly engaged with a lot more of what was going on than the rest of the list. also I feel bad I missed a question from him.

Demon had a low post count but his posts were absolute bangers so there’s nothing to worry about there. everyone else was actively involved in solving in various ways. ghug and Jamie maybe a bit behind the rest, and I think both are experienced enough to know they need to put in some amount of time on it, but still at least showing some amount of investment.

I’m not saying all four mafia are in that list of six but I am saying at least one is. probably multiple. this heuristic won’t catch the team but it will catch some of them, and in the process will force the survivors to go on the record.

Celaph is one going from 12th place in posts during the day to dead last at night with zero. Given he claimed that parents weekend kept him busy but he would be active after, one would expect to be able to post at least once during the second half of the night phase given it is a Monday morning to afternoon for him. That didn't happen at all. Very SAI.

Another is Bona. He drops from 4th to 10th. That's a notable drop, but the gap between 10th and 11th is fairly massive and his 16 posts are certainly numerous enough for a night and he did a lot of work with the SIMP spreadsheet. Still considering him town.

You've presented these results completely out of context of the players that you are talking about. Take Bona, last game he was 3rd highest poster D1 and 10th highest poster N1. As I said to Pyxxy, I'm a historically low night poster even as town. Look at M67 or M69. My posting frequency tanks at night. Even take a game when I did make notably N1 posts (M1020), and you can see that those posts came towards the very end of night as that is when I had time to play. It's certainly not TAI (see last game), but it's a terrible reason to shade me.

TAI is as bad as SAI. AI is sufficient.

Use TI or SI if you must but drop the 'A'.

[damo666]

## vote celaph

Why do you scum read me?

You've asserted that you see my death as a forgone conclusion, yet you don't seem to care about the outcome of that conclusion nor believe that the conclusion will go your way.

I don't know whether you are scum but you are a good info kill. This is unfortunate if you are town but there you are. If you are town scum are not going to NK you so there will always be a big ? over you so might as well get it over and done with now. Sorry for being so cold about it but as I said before it's inevitable (barring drama).

[damo666]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

Gee thanks!

How do put Demon in Tier 1 ????

[rdrivera2005]

I'm very confused by this list.

And also your list???

I found Chaqa's posts today to make a lot of sense and even where I disagreed I thought the motivations behind them were townie whereas before a lot of my scum read was based on him arguing in bad faith and seeming to have non townie motivations behind his argumentation. Blamp and bozo look bad for the way they disappeared around SoN which is cause for suspicion as initially brought up by Snowy. Combine that with Blamp's EoD as pointed out by Chaqa and bozo's highly suspect argumentation for someone like him and it becomes hard to place them as high as Eden does. I'm not full on scum reading blamp yet, he's more middle of the pack as I said, but I do not think it makes any sense to town read bozo here

Have you ever used not posting at the start of a night as a basis to suspect anyone before?

This is a pretty lame reason to suspect anyone. Many times I just wait for EOD to go do things I need to do IRL instead of waiting for the EOD result and it have nothing to do with alignment.

[damo666]

If celaph is town and scum are competent (which they probably are considering the N1 kill) then scum probably win given the Eden/Chaqa thing.

##unvote

[damo666]

@zManiac did it in 2 today.

[damo666]

##vote TheFlyingBoat

[celaph]

I see that Chaqa has gone ahead an analyzed his D1 bait case as requested. I rescind my past comments calling for such a post.

The greater focus on the scum case is understandable and expected given his stated beliefs.

On point #1 of the scum post, Sabi switched from Kak to me, you had it reversed. So dey were following the momentum onto me to push back against the TFB wagon.

I agree with that Jamie's vote is not suspicious here, but I'd likely extend the same gesture to blamp. As you mention, the votes will follow the momentum here and so having seen Bozo's vote likely predisposes Blamp to follow especially since voting me results in a tie with <30 seconds left.

I think the Bozo question is a decent one. I'm also not bothered to see little but generic reads in the other post as that fits Chaqa's current reads.

Blamp's inclusion feels rather arbitrary and Sabi's inclusion is just wrong. So the post as a whole comes off as though Chaqa wanted to include more people to make his case feel stronger. I'm also bothered by the fact that he had to be pestered to get this out. It makes me worried that these reads didn't exist before now. Only nagging doubt is the feeling that scum Chaqa would have been more inclined to fact check his post.

[damo666]

Chaqa is obvtown

[celaph]

Finally, if I was town as celaph here, there is one more thing that I would have added to this D2 post. I would have said something like “I was laying low and not posting intentionally during the night in order to avoid mafia attention / look like a low poster aka mafia, because I had a scum read on Chaqa and wanted to try bait him into killing me”.

Or something like this. Put another way. If I was absent all night, I would mention why, or I would have given people a heads up. Even just one joke night post like “if I die kill chaqa” removes a lot of suspicion. There were a bunch of these kinds of posts, and maybe it’s enough to goad Chaqa into actually doing it.

All these things leave me coming to my first official scum read.

Celaph, I find thee sus.

##VOTE Celaph

In other news, Pyxxy is town core. Having been the main cw yesterday and given the talk surrounding me, there is no reason to ever assume that mafia would kill me there. They’d be fools for doing so. The fact that this was not immediately and intuitively obvious shows a complete lack of scum thought on his front. This also matches well with his earlier comments trying to figure things out and his evident lack of experience.

this is really good friendsssss why are you all killing this man

at first I agreed, but then I reflected further and I concluded celaph was misinterpreting pyxxy’s hypothetical. it reads more to me that pyxxy was making up a hypothetical on the fly to explain absence, not that pyxxy actually thought mafia would shoot celaph n1.

but maybe just that inquiry is still enough, even if celaph reaches what I think is a flawed conclusion.
[/quote]

I agree that he was making up a hypothetical comment about what he would have said if he had been absent all night. But I also think that people make hypotheticals that seem reasonable to them. I think Pyxxy thinks town me would act a certain way because he thinks that's how he might act if he hadn't posted all night. He would feel the need to justify his absence (which is NAI) and sees claiming to lay low to bait a kill as a reasonable way to achieve such a thing. It's such a contrived and easily dismissed reason that I do not think scum Pyxxy thinks of it. Do you disagree?

[rdrivera2005]

Chaqa brings up the flipper sort of as a joke, but you can tell from him randomly getting mad here that he’s actually considering that that might be happening, and that’s because he’s really invested in his admittedly plausible theory RE: celaph/bozo. which means he really believes it.

his reaction here from a technical standpoint is atrocious, but in the process it reveals he is almost certainly town.

and now he will be mad at me about something something robot emotion something something lawyer, cementing his town status

##VOTE Maniac

I have to agree that I can't see scum reasons for this reaction from Chaqa.

##vote TFB

[celaph]

Are you scum again son?

I was really scared to read my role pm, but we good lol.

What were you scared of seeing? and what do you consider stressful?

I was scared of seeing scum because I know I would feel the pressure to do better after last time.