M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

upon review I realize that doesn’t answer your question.

what has he done? nothing at all

[bozotheclown]

The Case for Flipping Celaph Part 1: If he flips scum
Prelude: I'm not going to go through every post by post and break it down that way, more I want to point out several players and moments where I think something is pretty weird, and it all revolves around Celaph.

Celaph wasn't much of a wagon for most of Day 1, despite a lot of suspicion on him. Eventually, this formed into a small wagon with Bona and Eden, soon joined by brain. At this time, TFB and Kak were 4-4 with no clear leader presenting. Some vote moves by TFB, Maniac, and Sabi pushed things to:

TFB 5 - Celaph 4 - Chaqa 3 - Kak 2

As I moved off the TFB wagon, Demon and Kak moved onto celaph, bringing him to a 6-4 lead over TFB (with me at 3 and Kak at 2).

At this time, I made my vote for Kak, to see what would happen.

Point of Interest #1: Sabi switches from celaph, to Kak, by saying "I don't like this TFB wagon". Why make this move? TFB wasn't the leading wagon, momentum was against celaph, not TFB. I think that if celaph is scum, Sabi is astronomically more likely to be scum.

TFB switches to Kak (he had not expressed much sus on celaph). Maniac also moves to Kak (as he had townread celaph) and celaph votes Kak (self preservation makes sense).

I switch back from Kak to celaph.

It is now tied 6-6. Typically, when presented with a tie, people will move to break the tie in whatever way momentum seems to shift.

Point of Interest #2: Bozo, who hadn't posted more than twice in the last 3 hours, comes in and votes for Kak. He had never once mentioned either Kak or celaph prior to this. Bozo - why did you cast this vote?

Point of Interest #3: Blamp votes for Kak. This is really interesting, given that just an hour and a half earlier, Blamp had given his vote preferences as "Chaqa > celaph > Demon":

i think im

chaqa>celaph>demon

at this point. debating first two

Then Jamie votes Kak. Now, Jamie had barely mentioned either celaph or Kak, and with two voters already making the Kak choice, I don't really find Jamie's vote here that suspicious.

But I really do share Snowy's concerns that there is some link between Celaph, Sabi, Bozo, and Blamp. Maybe not all four of them, but if celaph is scum, I am pretty certain at least two of them are his teammates.

I voted for Kakarroto because Kakarroto and celaph were tied with less than 1 minute left.

[TheFlyingBoat]

My guess is that one of these 2 posts resulting in the mafia NKing snowy despite knowing he was a potential doc save target.

Awfully convenient you don't think it was one of his few good posts where he points to you, blamp, and celaph

That is an odd assessment, if you assume snowy was town, all of his posts were "good" in that they were town motivated. It is possible snowy was the NK because celaph and/or BusinessLamp are mafia, but snowy did not come to that conclusion.

I mean he did point out y'all's disappearance at the start of night as scummy for fairly obvious reasons.

[TheFlyingBoat]

TFB setting up his EOD movement could be scum motivated.

Or I'm just posting my evolution of reads and their relative strength to explain why Kak is no longer one? I tend to like posting ordered lists and care about if other people's lists are ordered (if you remember last game I got harangued last game for asking ghug if his lists were ordered or not). Simple as that.

What did you mean by "Kak is no longer one"?

Why Kak is no longer number one. Aka why I had switched my vote from Kak to Chaqa

[ghug]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

What has bozo done to warrant a townread?

he’s like 65-70% to be town

That's not an answer. What distinguishes him from worcej or Rivera?

[bozotheclown]

This actually means Sabi isn't linked too strongly to celaph, more so linked to TFB, which does reassure me a bit because I wasn't leaning too much toward Sabi being scum.

Seems like the link is celaph to Blamp and Bozo, which is EXACTLY what snowy was saying, and he got killed.

I think we got them gang.

You are pointing out the same thing snowy was, it is not like you came to the same conclusion by some other method.

What snowy also said was that he thought TFB was avoiding voting for celaph.

[bozotheclown]

That's the one part of his write-up I fully agree with.

Why specifically Bozo of all Kak voters? I am not saying Bozo isn't scum (in fact I barely remember him, which is weird), just want to understand.

Most others had some level of established opinion on the subject, has vested interest in saving themselves, or were voting to prevent a tie in the final moments. Bozo broke a tie with no existing opinions on either player. If the one he saves flips scum, he looks bad.

Are you agreeing that it looks bad, or just explaining why it may look bad to others? I think rdrivera knows why I would never place that vote if celaph and I were both mafia, as I would expect you to as well.

[ghug]

Why specifically Bozo of all Kak voters? I am not saying Bozo isn't scum (in fact I barely remember him, which is weird), just want to understand.

Most others had some level of established opinion on the subject, has vested interest in saving themselves, or were voting to prevent a tie in the final moments. Bozo broke a tie with no existing opinions on either player. If the one he saves flips scum, he looks bad.

Are you agreeing that it looks bad, or just explaining why it may look bad to others? I think rdrivera knows why I would never place that vote if celaph and I were both mafia, as I would expect you to as well.

This is fair, though largely WIFOMmy, since you can have this defense prepared and it does save your teammate.

I don't think celaph's scum, and you're not at the top of my list, but you definitely deserve some attention, and I think if celaph did flip scum you'd deserve more.

[TheFlyingBoat]

This actually means Sabi isn't linked too strongly to celaph, more so linked to TFB, which does reassure me a bit because I wasn't leaning too much toward Sabi being scum.

Seems like the link is celaph to Blamp and Bozo, which is EXACTLY what snowy was saying, and he got killed.

I think we got them gang.

You are pointing out the same thing snowy was, it is not like you came to the same conclusion by some other method.

What snowy also said was that he thought TFB was avoiding voting for celaph.

I mean I had pretty well defined opinions on my reads going into the EoD and explained my thought process throughout. Given I continued that pressure through the night and into today where I've been voting him since the first hour of the day, how do you reconcile your argument with my reads during D1, my N1&D2 posts, and my current vote? It's not like I was one of the many voters who had rushed onto Kak without an explanation. I gave a clear definition of my preference list and then gave the only real in-depth explanation of why I thought Kak's return post was scummy. It was wrong in hindsight but at the time it made plenty of sense given the reaction of contemporaries to it before the flip.

[BobMcBob]

It's in the OP

Ahh im dumb. Why would doctors not be notified about an rb? Let's say if a JOAT does the doctor power thingy and was rb, would they be notified of that or?

(sorry for these questions)

The idea is that you would only get notified if a result you expected didn't happen. I.E. if a Cop doesn't get a scan result, or a JOAT gets refunded their one-shot use by the roleblock.

Actually, I think I've found a bit of a flaw in the setup I missed during review.

##CallGM: since the Doctor cannot target the same player twice in a row, if they were roleblocked while protecting player X, would they still be unable to target player X the following night?

Correct. They would still be unable to target the same player again.

[Bonatogether]

There is a big difference between talking about someone and talking to someone and Sabi's list doesn't make a distinction between those two. The reality is that people talked about me a lot more than they talked to me. I suspect that is true for most people.

You claim that the fact I'm heavily simped implies that I am not responding to questions, but that is not true. Go back and look at the posts and find ones where people are talking directly to me, not just about me. I respond to those posts. I'm heavily simped through a combination of my low post count and the amount of conversation around me, not because I'm ignoring people asking me questions.

Also, you note that I have only interacted with 2 players above 10 times. I made 30 posts at the time of your analysis for a total of 60 mentions. It's not surprising that I don't mention many people a lot when I'm not a high poster.

You're not responding to interactions about you or engaging people who are thinking about you - that's what the score means. I haven't been seeing the engagement

no, you have a differential of over 10 with 3 players - Sabi, Chaqa, Eden. Given that these people are high posters, it's not hugely surprising that it's with them but the important thing is that you are not engaging with people on the same level that they are thinking about you for d1.

You changing the metrics by which you are thinking about this data -- probably a good sign given that your new approach is far more accurate than saying I'm not responding to questions. I think my bigger problem though and the core point I bring up in my last issue is that you are looking at the numbers without context of what is happening in the game. The numbers can flag things as potentially suspicious, you still have to do all the work to explain why they are actually suspicious.

As a case study, I've listed Chaqa's D1 mentions of me below.

I know what my own metric means. I also am looking at them in context - saying I'm not is just false.

This case study says something - that you are being talked about but not responding. That's the point I'm trying to make - you don't need to respond to every (or most) mentions of yourself but failing to respond to it as a strong general pattern across the game is not behavior that makes sense to me, if you're town.

[Bonatogether]

I skimmed Blamp's +1s and saw no evidence that he was in the thread reading at that time. Now, he certainly could have been aware that people might monitor that and consciously didn't +1, but at that point why is he not just hiding himself or reading straight from the bot? I find it far more likely that he just had the tab open in the background while going about his day.

Blamp doesn't +1 much. The assumption behind this post is fundamentally flawed for this reason.

This is also a towny-seeming take on the face of it but no actually towny thought was required to make it.

The point is not so much about Blamp's +1ing habits -- that aspect only confirms that he isn't blatantly lying -- as it is about the fact that if wanted to read without being observed, there are multiple ways to do so.

Your shading in the last sentence is bizarre. Are you afraid that I'm going to get townreads for this?

I don't give a shit about shading. I'm saying what I think it is.

[Bonatogether]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

Why is sabi tier 1?

[Bonatogether]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

Why is sabi tier 1?

I agree with the rest of the list, pretty much

[ghug]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

Why is sabi tier 1?

I agree with the rest of the list, pretty much

Why do you think bozo is townier then Rivera or worcej?

[BesharamSabi]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

What has bozo done to warrant a townread?

he’s like 65-70% to be town

Uh what

[BesharamSabi]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

Why is sabi tier 1?

He's a simp that's why

[Bonatogether]

Why is sabi tier 1?

I agree with the rest of the list, pretty much

Why do you think bozo is townier then Rivera or worcej?

wasn't saying complete agreement, but bozo has not been the stiff, only one read scum bozo that i'm used to. on that basis i'm inclined towards a meta townread until he does something more conclusive

[Bonatogether]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

Why is sabi tier 1?

He's a simp that's why

Largest SIMP pairs (removing lowposters such as kak, maniac, worcej, because they necessarily generate large values)
1. sabi -> eden (18)

[BesharamSabi]

Why is sabi tier 1?

He's a simp that's why

Largest SIMP pairs (removing lowposters such as kak, maniac, worcej, because they necessarily generate large values)
1. sabi -> eden (18)

Did you not see his night numbers.

He simped me. Tyvm