M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

Stop this, will you?

Feel free to write as much Ghug/Eden slash fiction as you like in the privacy of your own basement, but don’t post it here.

I will stop whenever they stop talking about how hard it has been for them to get along and what not.

https://onlyfans.com/GhugsGrotto

for science I clicked

it’s a broken URL

[President Eden]

Why I’m voting for you :

The eod thing
The beginning of day stuff irt roleblock
You and Maniac weird connection
Your pattern of announcing afks

Don’t act obtuse.

I actually think this part was towny as it was a legit way to see who’d react (including borks like me who hadn’t noticed Bob’s unusual rule, but also possibly other reactions).

You’re the only one who thinks that. It was a way to pr hunt by scum.

it amuses me how often Sabi relies on appeals to popularity or authority instead of engaging with divergent ideas.

[President Eden]

so you think I bussed Chaqa yesterday and am bussing maniac today whilst celaph is the primary wagon. Cool, got it.

I mean Donny pulled it off last game.

that shouldn’t have worked and obviously people will be hyper-aware of it this game so it wouldn’t be a viable strategy. Do betterrrrrr

what fucking site do you think you’re on?

[ghug]

Hi celaph

[BesharamSabi]

I actually think this part was towny as it was a legit way to see who’d react (including borks like me who hadn’t noticed Bob’s unusual rule, but also possibly other reactions).

You’re the only one who thinks that. It was a way to pr hunt by scum.

it amuses me how often Sabi relies on appeals to popularity or authority instead of engaging with divergent ideas.

OK cool.

I suck at this Game.

[President Eden]

I’m liking lamp rn. ##VOTE Chaqa

Weird post and vote. Pretty sure Lamp thinks I’m town, so why would you liking lamp’s issues with rivera entice you to join rivera voting me?

Lamp was my old vote.

hOw PeRfOrMaTiVe!

[President Eden]

In regards to Maniac: I read his position more about protecting a town read, as even he has stated. Also, I find the explanation on where his vote landing to be valid, especially for a D1 vote. I use the same logic usually for D1: it’s more about who I don’t want to die than who I think should die since I have no real information to process beyond the spew of shit that is D1. I see that you’re now somewhat on that same conclusion, but why only null for Maniac instead of town?

In regards to ghug: I’ll have to re-read and see if I reach the same conclusion. I had similar ~vibes~ in last game and that turned out to be wrong. My take on ghug is he makes noise and kinda stirs the ‘game pot’ for awhile and then drops analysis gems infrequently in later states of the game. He is typically the most vocal at questioning/countering people’s reads than presenting his own unique takes, which fits in the ’not taking a lead’ description you bring up.

digging worcej thus far.

[celaph]

to build upon what snowy pointed out, night solving is a powerful way to sort people because the mafia just don’t get as heavily invested in keeping up appearances during the night. the night phase is when they get to do their planning for how to attack town, and they’re often very busy figuring out how they want to frame the narrative, how they need to use their night actions, scanning the thread for PRs, etc. so naturally, their attention is diverted.

additionally, even on a “bad” day for town (mislynch), town gets a new piece of hard information that can help them figure out the puzzle, as well as a lot of soft information (votes and their movement, particularly near EOD). there’s a lot to unpack for town. but because mafia already knows what happened, it’s not nearly as exciting. town motivation naturally increases.

accordingly, I tend to townread active, solving nightposters more heavily, and in particular tend to be more suspicious of prior nulls who aren’t around.

and with all that in mind, the players jumping off the page as fitting the mafia tendency are:

- celaph
- worcej
- rivera
- Maniac
- damo
- bozo

pyxxy I guess too but he kinda gets a newbie pass imo. he clearly engaged with a lot more of what was going on than the rest of the list. also I feel bad I missed a question from him.

Demon had a low post count but his posts were absolute bangers so there’s nothing to worry about there. everyone else was actively involved in solving in various ways. ghug and Jamie maybe a bit behind the rest, and I think both are experienced enough to know they need to put in some amount of time on it, but still at least showing some amount of investment.

I’m not saying all four mafia are in that list of six but I am saying at least one is. probably multiple. this heuristic won’t catch the team but it will catch some of them, and in the process will force the survivors to go on the record.

Celaph is one going from 12th place in posts during the day to dead last at night with zero. Given he claimed that parents weekend kept him busy but he would be active after, one would expect to be able to post at least once during the second half of the night phase given it is a Monday morning to afternoon for him. That didn't happen at all. Very SAI.

Another is Bona. He drops from 4th to 10th. That's a notable drop, but the gap between 10th and 11th is fairly massive and his 16 posts are certainly numerous enough for a night and he did a lot of work with the SIMP spreadsheet. Still considering him town.

You've presented these results completely out of context of the players that you are talking about. Take Bona, last game he was 3rd highest poster D1 and 10th highest poster N1. As I said to Pyxxy, I'm a historically low night poster even as town. Look at M67 or M69. My posting frequency tanks at night. Even take a game when I did make notably N1 posts (M1020), and you can see that those posts came towards the very end of night as that is when I had time to play. It's certainly not TAI (see last game), but it's a terrible reason to shade me.

[President Eden]

He is a strong player in general but as I pointed out earlier I implored him if he were town and not scum as I read him to be to play better. That clearly shows while I respected him in the general sense I thought his play this game was more than subpar and not just for him but in general. I really think these claims of a fear kill or whatever to be quite silly.

“silly” is an oversell for sure. snowy was almost certainly fearkilled in the general sense of the term (“killed because he is a threat to mafia who isn’t being heavily suspected”). and in the more specific sense that I think you mean (“killed because he correctly sussed out XYZ”), there’s nothing silly about that… that happens all the time and yet somehow less often than it should lol. (I guess the last part is debatable given how readily webdip towns self-implode. but it’s good practice to shoot people who are persuasive and onto you, as neutralizing them in the thread is really tough.)

[celaph]

## vote celaph

Why do you scum read me?

You've asserted that you see my death as a forgone conclusion, yet you don't seem to care about the outcome of that conclusion nor believe that the conclusion will go your way.

[President Eden]

steam literally says you’re playing Civ 6 rn so

For the record, he is joking.

contraction theory gets yet another W.

[celaph]

Celaph has many SIMPs. This is indicative of the fact that he does not respond to questions. Indeed, he has the lowest total SIMP factor of any active player (and lower than several inactive players). His only SIMP factor greater than 1 is with Kak. He only interacts with 2 players above 10 times (Sabi and Eden - the two highest posters) Why he refuses to talk about or with people is very strange given his previous play. I believe this is strongly scum indicative.

There is a big difference between talking about someone and talking to someone and Sabi's list doesn't make a distinction between those two. The reality is that people talked about me a lot more than they talked to me. I suspect that is true for most people.

You claim that the fact I'm heavily simped implies that I am not responding to questions, but that is not true. Go back and look at the posts and find ones where people are talking directly to me, not just about me. I respond to those posts. I'm heavily simped through a combination of my low post count and the amount of conversation around me, not because I'm ignoring people asking me questions.

Also, you note that I have only interacted with 2 players above 10 times. I made 30 posts at the time of your analysis for a total of 60 mentions. It's not surprising that I don't mention many people a lot when I'm not a high poster.

You're not responding to interactions about you or engaging people who are thinking about you - that's what the score means. I haven't been seeing the engagement

no, you have a differential of over 10 with 3 players - Sabi, Chaqa, Eden. Given that these people are high posters, it's not hugely surprising that it's with them but the important thing is that you are not engaging with people on the same level that they are thinking about you for d1.

You changing the metrics by which you are thinking about this data -- probably a good sign given that your new approach is far more accurate than saying I'm not responding to questions. I think my bigger problem though and the core point I bring up in my last issue is that you are looking at the numbers without context of what is happening in the game. The numbers can flag things as potentially suspicious, you still have to do all the work to explain why they are actually suspicious.

As a case study, I've listed Chaqa's D1 mentions of me below. The vast majority of his posts are about him finding me scummy because I misread Eden and was inactive. I explained why I was inactive and don't think that there is a substantive conversation to be had when he's expressing his opinions, he's already explained them. So of course Chaqa ended up with a lot more posts than I had of him D1. He was repeating himself (to be clear, nothing wrong with repeating yourself) and there is no good reason for me to respond to him each time he mentions me.

The point is that the numbers can flag things worthy of extra thought, but they don't do that extra thought for you.

- He scumreads me for misinterpreting Eden
- He scumreads me for being inactive
- He says he will vote me
- He says I'm scummy
- He asks Maniac why he townreads me
- He repeats the fact that I misread Eden's post
- Said that he would vote me, but would give it a day to see if my irl excuses were valid (x3)
- Says that I'm his top scumread some more
- Says that voting for me while I'm contributing is sadge
- Says he has no preference for EoD wagons
- Votes for me
- Says that Maniac is my scum teammate

[celaph]

Hmm I do find this interesting because blamp was online in bottom bar for a good part of the real time night part of night one.

Interesting.

Could point to a fear kill?

I skimmed Blamp's +1s and saw no evidence that he was in the thread reading at that time. Now, he certainly could have been aware that people might monitor that and consciously didn't +1, but at that point why is he not just hiding himself or reading straight from the bot? I find it far more likely that he just had the tab open in the background while going about his day.

Blamp doesn't +1 much. The assumption behind this post is fundamentally flawed for this reason.

This is also a towny-seeming take on the face of it but no actually towny thought was required to make it.

The point is not so much about Blamp's +1ing habits -- that aspect only confirms that he isn't blatantly lying -- as it is about the fact that if wanted to read without being observed, there are multiple ways to do so.

Your shading in the last sentence is bizarre. Are you afraid that I'm going to get townreads for this?

[celaph]

I would absolutely call it opportunistic, because I was taking advantage of the opportunity to bait out who your potential teammates are. I've had a solid scumread on you all game, so you trying to shade me about it is pretty weak. I wasn't really worried about Maniac specifically - he's a potential teammate, but I don't see him doing that blatant linking tbh.

I don't think I failed. Time will tell.

You seem to be trying to portray my scumread of you as though I'm only doing it to shade you because of your scumread of me. I'm not trying to shade you for your scumread, I just think you're scum.

I'm glad to see we are in agreement about Maniac, so who do you think bit your bait?

tl;dr: Chaqa isn't acting like he thinks anyone bit his bait. He has made no attempt to push nor sus any of the people that can be reasonably construed as being caught. He is either lying about having caught someone or just wants to wait until after I flip so he can pick a read that fits his purpose then.

Sabi: In his push back against Sabi's N1 comments about his tendencies of sharing his absences, he made no comments pressuring dem. He also didn't have any comments about Sabi's presence high on PE's list.

TFB: The closest he comes on TFB is saying that he could see TFB as scum when BB suggests it. But he again has no objection to the inclusion on TFB on Eden's list. Chaqa's read N1-Now on TFB isn't clear, but he scumread him near EOD1. That said, if he scumread TFB beforehand, then his gimmick didn't catch TFB and there is no evidence to suggest that his scumread has grown.

Bozo: While he said that he could see TFB as scum, he said IDK about Bozo. I would struggle to justify Chaqa having anything but a null on Bozo. He certainly wasn't caught.

Blamp: Chaqa gave blamp town points N1 and while that technically doesn't preclude him having previously given blamp scum points, there is no evidence to suggest that he did.

Jamie: Chaqa has very minimal interactions with Jamie and certainly no sign of a scumread.

I don’t make any assumptions about who I caught because I don’t yet know if you’re town or scum. We have to pass the bill to know what’s in it, you know?

For one, you said N1 that you did think you caught people.

More importantly, as others have noted and I've agreed with, it looks like TFB was saved D1. If you believe similarly, why aren't you commenting to that effect? Similarly, why have you not made any indication about who you think is my scum teammate? You act like my flip will generate a huge amount of info, but you have made no comments on what you think that info will be. That leaves you freely available to push whoever is convenient at the time.

[President Eden]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

[bozotheclown]

my best guess is TFB and Chaqa

That was... surprisingly less content for such a massive vote swing. Strange, and worth pondering

I will concede that wagonomics do not favor celaph based upon read, but neither does that mean TFB is not scum

In fact pretty sure TFB went out of his way to save celaph and never voted him despite being a viable counterwagon, if that sways any of ye "celaph is scum" bandwagoners

My guess is that one of these 2 posts resulting in the mafia NKing snowy despite knowing he was a potential doc save target.

Awfully convenient you don't think it was one of his few good posts where he points to you, blamp, and celaph

That is an odd assessment, if you assume snowy was town, all of his posts were "good" in that they were town motivated. It is possible snowy was the NK because celaph and/or BusinessLamp are mafia, but snowy did not come to that conclusion.

[President Eden]

##VOTE Maniac

day is still too boring

[bozotheclown]

No to worcej, he hasn't even gotten a chance to play yet. No to RDR he is a likely mod kill or sub. Sure to Kak, but I think Chaqa>Demon>Kak>Celaph would be my kill list at this is point. Kak is at least here and seems to be posting something even if it isn't great.

TFB setting up his EOD movement could be scum motivated.

Or I'm just posting my evolution of reads and their relative strength to explain why Kak is no longer one? I tend to like posting ordered lists and care about if other people's lists are ordered (if you remember last game I got harangued last game for asking ghug if his lists were ordered or not). Simple as that.

What did you mean by "Kak is no longer one"?

[ghug]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

What has bozo done to warrant a townread?

[President Eden]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

What has bozo done to warrant a townread?

he’s like 65-70% to be town