M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[BesharamSabi]

##call gm clearly brainbomb is breaking the rules for mafia

[worcej]

hi worcej, I like what you are doing so far. welcome to the arena. forgive my call for you to be wagoned. keep it up

You wanted me wagoned?

How fucking dare you.

[ghug]

Returning to the game, do we assume Brainbomb's roleblock claim is legit since nobody else has claimed it? Or could it be a ruse?

Assume it's genuine. We always suspect RB claims but I reckon 95%+ turn out legit.

I was not RBd.

##VOTE damo

[worcej]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=drivesdk

First question - why are we making spreadsheets now?

Squigs and Foxcastle must be kicking themselves for not playing if this is a new normal...

Because I like data and that's how it makes me connect better with the game. Pre spreadsheet I was just writing notes about interactions without any numbers associated with it.

Just got to this now - I believe I spelled out why I have a little lean towards it.

[BesharamSabi]

First question - why are we making spreadsheets now?

Squigs and Foxcastle must be kicking themselves for not playing if this is a new normal...

Because I like data and that's how it makes me connect better with the game. Pre spreadsheet I was just writing notes about interactions without any numbers associated with it.

Just got to this now - I believe I spelled out why I have a little lean towards it.

You can scumlean it if you want, I can't stop you.

I am still going to do this project and see if it actually has a correlation or not.

Will verify this was past games as well.

[pyxxy]

@Jamie

is it odd to you that damo is posting lists of who he thinks are vts in this? and hes omitting a person who actually claimed vt? do you have any reasonable explanation why he would be doing this?

It's not good play, for sure.

Shall we cut off Damo's head and see what's inside?

A vaccuum

Damn with two c's?

[damo666]

## vote celaph

The page of posts leading up to this pushed you *towards* scumreading him?

No. The D1 voting makes him a sensible dk unless somebody can point to a vg reason not to.

[ghug]

Something has just occurred to me.

I have a habit of editing the subject line of the thread (see above) for my own amusement, and sometimes also the names of the person posting, or even the timestamp of the post I'm quoting. I do this because it amuses me; it appeals to my silly sense of humour.

This behaviour infuriates Damo and he always shouts at me to stop it.

But not in this game. He hasn't reacted to it once.

Is this a scum-tell?

I'll say for my part that I've just given up on fighting with you about it.

Can you at least limit it to the names in quotes, though? I don't want to have to start reading thread titles.

[worcej]

Done updating sheet for night 1

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=drivesdk

Boatman was simping Chaqa hardcore, Chaqa congrats.

Jamiet simped for brainbomb. The love triangle grows.

There's a few observations I made about certain interactions (or lack of) between people. I don't want to reveal that because I don't want to influence it so I'm going to observe day two and see if the numbers change or not.

Interesting stuff.

Not opening the link (primarily because work computer etc) but I find it very unpractical to publicly be utilizing an interaction tool to try to find people who may or may not be scum. Is this the gist of it?

If so, this type of analysis is great when it's employed later in the game when we know a scum player, but doing it now (aka live) just allows any scum to force interactions (or lack of them) to throw you off the scent and setup miskills.

That's fair. I didn't announce this till end of day one so I can notice any artifical increases or decreases.

Not that you want my advice, but I'd do this exercise and keep it hidden until after D3 so that you have a lot more valid data to analyze and present to be helpful down the road. It's like VCA - it gets better the longer the game goes and more information trickles in - but isn't as absolute since a vote is necessary and binding but interaction can be faked or forced.

Going forward from here in this game, I find little value in anything you're doing with the sheet because of the fact scum know what you're tracking and can adjust accordingly.

[BesharamSabi]

Not opening the link (primarily because work computer etc) but I find it very unpractical to publicly be utilizing an interaction tool to try to find people who may or may not be scum. Is this the gist of it?

If so, this type of analysis is great when it's employed later in the game when we know a scum player, but doing it now (aka live) just allows any scum to force interactions (or lack of them) to throw you off the scent and setup miskills.

That's fair. I didn't announce this till end of day one so I can notice any artifical increases or decreases.

Not that you want my advice, but I'd do this exercise and keep it hidden until after D3 so that you have a lot more valid data to analyze and present to be helpful down the road. It's like VCA - it gets better the longer the game goes and more information trickles in - but isn't as absolute since a vote is necessary and binding but interaction can be faked or forced.

Going forward from here in this game, I find little value in anything you're doing with the sheet because of the fact scum know what you're tracking and can adjust accordingly.

The sheet is nothing more than a supplement to use alongside vca and what not.

Yea I kinda fucked up by announcing it early (I got excited over it and have been dying to do it).

[ghug]

damo is town. I am fairly sure of it. Its mostly attitude read here but damo seems way to annoyed to be scum. Scum is winning currently and I dont think damo is playing comfortable like someone who is winning

Why do you think scum is winning?

[damo666]

Damo is probably scum also. He seems super lurky.

Inclined to agree with Jimmit here

How ironic that on the rare occasion you and Jamie are singing from the same songsheet you are wrong.

[damo666]

anyway let me force myself to be productive and end my morning tirade lol

in sum:

maniac and sabi are scum probs

whoever is town of damo/ghug/bozo need to pick up their play

celaph is still a decent option but like I don’t want this day to be a foregone conclusion that celaph is leaving.

rdr and worcej need to produce as much content as possible plz

How am I in a bucket with damo and bozo? What the fuck, man.

Some bucket tbf

[ghug]

Sorry for wall posts, but though this was interesting and useful if I get miskilled.

Some thoughts

<snip>
Celaph - I won’t vote Celaph today.
Chaqa - would vote for Celaph which makes me want to kill him now. Would more than happily vote Chaqa today.
Jamie - I’d be eggstatic to vote for Jamie today and any other day.
<snip>

When Sabi asked me to expand on my Chaqa read I said...

Chaqa - would vote for Celaph which makes me want to kill him with a blunt screwdriver now. Would more than happily vote Chaqa and then do an Irish jig today.

When BusinessLamp asked me to explain my voting I said...

<snip>
27 mins to go, I have a choice between TFB, Celaph, Chaqa and Kak. I’m town reading Celaph and Chaqa’s only -ve point is he wanted Celaph dead but that’s not really alignment indicative. So I was left choosing TFB over Kak, (who I’d already said I wouldn’t vote for easily). So TFB was best of bad choices.

Few minutes to go the two lead wagons were Celaph and Kak. As I town read Celaph, Kak was the only other choice unless someone got flash wagoned.

Stop reading for a second and consider how strong my Chaqa read was.

Ok you can now all start reading again...

That is interesting. Maniac trying to buddy/pocket Celaph or Maniac-Celaph scum team? Part of me leans the latter given I think I have Celaph as a scum lean, but that's so blatant from Maniac that part of me wonders if it is the former. I lean the latter personally as I think Maniac hopes we'll write it off as Maniac being Maniac, but I am curious as to your conclusion.

As for him never mentioning me at all before lumping me in with snowy and ghug without explanation and then voting for me after saying he doesn't like any of the major wagons? Mildly odd. One thing to note is that during this time, Chaqa is the third major wagon, tied with celaph. If he voted for Chaqa, as Sabi, Jamie, and I lobbied him to do Chaqa could have been tied for the lead. Maniac's strongest target was Chaqa. He had the shot and gave no indication his read on Chaqa changed and emphasized his read on Celaph was the same, but yet he didn't take the shot. Why?

Either Maniac is insane or at a minimum 2 of the 3 of Chaqa, Maniac, and Celaph are scum imo.

This is a good post.

@Maniac: Why didn't you join the Chaqa wagon at EoD? It was a viable wagon, you were around for at least part of EoD, and you'd previously called Chaqa out as a major scumread.

The question needs to be asked..."Why are people misrepresenting my read on Chaqa?" It's a day one read that was even a scum read, more a 'he's trying to kill my town read' kinda read. But TFB says chaqa was my strongest scumread and Jamie says chaqa was my major scumread. This seems a concerted and even coordinated attempt to get me miskilled.

It's also interesting when TFB says 'Maniac is either insane or scum'. So when I flip town, TFB can shrug and say, 'Oh he must've been insane then.

Jamie's vote for me is even more suspicious. In one post he moves from 'I'm doubting my town read on Maniac' to @maniac is in my scum pool'. Then he agrees with TFB (so he can perhaps deny responsibility) and then references Eden's post about me as an excuse to vote for me. (again leaving wriggle room to deny liability for killing town!Me).

When I do flip town remember this post - respect the dead and all that.

##VoteJamie

Whilst I don't agree with BusinessLamp's analysis on me, I don't find his motives suspicious.

The lack of good vibes from Maniac is becoming more noticable.

[damo666]

It's not good play, for sure.

Shall we cut off Damo's head and see what's inside?

A vaccuum

Damn with two c's?

Well done. I was providing proof!

[damo666]

Returning to the game, do we assume Brainbomb's roleblock claim is legit since nobody else has claimed it? Or could it be a ruse?

Assume it's genuine. We always suspect RB claims but I reckon 95%+ turn out legit.

I was not RBd.

##VOTE damo

Ghug is town.

[ghug]

I like the theory and think overall at first glance it is sound. My issue is with how you apply it. Your application reminds me of this: https://xkcd.com/1138/

Your set of 6 isn't a set of people who avoided the night, it's just a list of 6 inactive players. They were inactive during the day, they were inactive during the night. That doesn't suggest they're avoiding the night so much as they were just avoiding the game altogether, being lazy, or what have you.

Imo the correct way to look at this is to look at the obvious decreases from day to night.

Celaph is one going from 12th place in posts during the day to dead last at night with zero. Given he claimed that parents weekend kept him busy but he would be active after, one would expect to be able to post at least once during the second half of the night phase given it is a Monday morning to afternoon for him. That didn't happen at all. Very SAI.

Another is Bona. He drops from 4th to 10th. That's a notable drop, but the gap between 10th and 11th is fairly massive and his 16 posts are certainly numerous enough for a night and he did a lot of work with the SIMP spreadsheet. Still considering him town.

Other than those two most people do stay roughly where they are. Maybe less useful than I though given I basically got told an obv scum is obv scum and am disinclined to accept the implication on the latter for fairly substantive reasons. Perhaps the general inactivity chart is better than this attempt in this case because firing shots in the inactive pool generally does turn up a couple scum.

Let's not make "SAI" a thing please.

Why has SAI been a thing this game?

I think bona coined it. We have "scummy" already. Or "scum-indicative". "Scum alignment indicative" feels weird.

[damo666]

If you start at D2 on bot go back to D1 then back to D2 it's screwed but OK on reload.

[damo666]

Let's not make "SAI" a thing please.

Why has SAI been a thing this game?

I think bona coined it. We have "scummy" already. Or "scum-indicative". "Scum alignment indicative" feels weird.

It's bordering on illiterate.

[BesharamSabi]

Returning to the game, do we assume Brainbomb's roleblock claim is legit since nobody else has claimed it? Or could it be a ruse?

Assume it's genuine. We always suspect RB claims but I reckon 95%+ turn out legit.

I was not RBd.

##VOTE damo

Can't tell if ghug is buddying me or not