M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

Something interesting is that ghug didn’t post in the five hours leading up to EOD1. Despite this, he was present just a few minutes into day 1, an hour into night 1, and at end of night 1/start of day 2.

This selective absence was never addressed or explained by him, besides saying he missed EOD and 30 pages.

Might be nothing, just something I find a little odd

[ghug]

Something interesting is that ghug didn’t post in the five hours leading up to EOD1. Despite this, he was present just a few minutes into day 1, an hour into night 1, and at end of night 1/start of day 2.

This selective absence was never addressed or explained by him, besides saying he missed EOD and 30 pages.

Might be nothing, just something I find a little odd

I don't believe in telling people I'll be gone. All you have to do is ask, though.

[rdrivera2005]

I tried asking him on discord which was apparently the wrong place. Currently he is not subbed out but he may be soon.

Well, seems Bob decided to let me stay on the game so I am back.

And I will ##vote Chaqa so I don't risk not voting again.

Do you have a reason for voting me?

The first thing that caught my attention was that message where you said you would NK Eden, it's the kind of thing scum Chaqa says.

Then I read EOD that I missed and you seemed to don't care about who gets DKed, this is scummy specially if it was T x T.

And there's the RB thing, which could be just had town play, but could be also PR hunting.

And this is more then I have about other people, specially because I didn't read most of D1 yet.

[rdrivera2005]

to build upon what snowy pointed out, night solving is a powerful way to sort people because the mafia just don’t get as heavily invested in keeping up appearances during the night. the night phase is when they get to do their planning for how to attack town, and they’re often very busy figuring out how they want to frame the narrative, how they need to use their night actions, scanning the thread for PRs, etc. so naturally, their attention is diverted.

additionally, even on a “bad” day for town (mislynch), town gets a new piece of hard information that can help them figure out the puzzle, as well as a lot of soft information (votes and their movement, particularly near EOD). there’s a lot to unpack for town. but because mafia already knows what happened, it’s not nearly as exciting. town motivation naturally increases.

accordingly, I tend to townread active, solving nightposters more heavily, and in particular tend to be more suspicious of prior nulls who aren’t around.

and with all that in mind, the players jumping off the page as fitting the mafia tendency are:

- celaph
- worcej
- rivera
- Maniac
- damo
- bozo

pyxxy I guess too but he kinda gets a newbie pass imo. he clearly engaged with a lot more of what was going on than the rest of the list. also I feel bad I missed a question from him.

Demon had a low post count but his posts were absolute bangers so there’s nothing to worry about there. everyone else was actively involved in solving in various ways. ghug and Jamie maybe a bit behind the rest, and I think both are experienced enough to know they need to put in some amount of time on it, but still at least showing some amount of investment.

I’m not saying all four mafia are in that list of six but I am saying at least one is. probably multiple. this heuristic won’t catch the team but it will catch some of them, and in the process will force the survivors to go on the record.

At least one mafia in a group of six? Going out on a limb there.

I think you’ve given a list of people who aren’t participating very much in general, which does tend to be scum indicative, but obviously isn’t foolproof. I don’t think night inactivity in general is a good metric. If anything, scum have to think about the game at night, whereas town can use it as an opportunity to recharge.

x-post, I actually bumped it to 2-3 upon thinking more about pyxxy’s question from the night. and tbh while I give him newbie pass, he probably should be in there logically. just think that the heuristic is less indicative for a newer player than most as their posting is probably more tied to IRL availability (we forget how hard it can be to keep up with these massive games) than to specific in-game events occurring.

I don't think you are totally wrong on your heuristic, but want to point that on my case I didn't post at night because I didn't know if I was going to be replaced or not.

[rdrivera2005]

@eden - I can’t help you with your puzzle

@Bona - you’re in my town core team; congratulations. But you’re off target with your SIMP analysis. Firstly, where is snowy on your list? Apart from that the only thing we know is the person with the lowest SIMP value (Kak) is town. You’ve then deduced that the person with the second lowest SIMP value, Celaph, must be scum. Think you need to re-look at this.

@Sabi - you’re also I’m my town core, so much so that I’d die on that hill. I recall when I first started playing I toyed with creating a spreadsheet like yours, but I’m lazy so it never happened. I just can’t see scum faking this, and if scum!Sabi is faking this, you deserve to win. I might just sheep you this game.

@celaph voters. - I’ve re-read Celaph and still can’t see anything scummy about them. Y’all wrong.

I like this Maniac post. I feel the same way about Sabi and Celaph. Bona less sure.

[rdrivera2005]

Well that’s disappointing. Just re-read chaqa looking for a reason to vote for him and couldn’t find one. Too tired to iso anyone else.

@Bona - thanks for explanation, but why wasn’t snowy on your list?

Really? What do you think of my reasons?

[celaph]

I’m confused why you apparently seem to think I shouldn’t be pushing to kill celaph here. I’ve made my case for why we should, he was wagon #2 on what’s highly likely to be a revealing day 1, there are some fantastic leads to follow if I’m right.

These reasons are bad, you had better ones two posts earlier. For one, killing for info makes it really easy for mafia to hop on and get a free miskill. Secondly, your last line brushes over the "if I'm right" aspect like it's not critical to the getting info part of this. I agree that TFB looks bad after my flip, I also think TFB looks bad before it.

not every post a mafia makes raises alarms. in fact I would wager that celaph’s style inherently lends itself to not raising alarms. rather he’s going to be a wallflower and disappear for stretches, say things that sound decent enough but are missing the bite of critical analysis that defines town celaph’s game. town celaph isn’t a high volume poster but is probably the highest quality poster for his post count in a given game, or close to it.

This feels like a fair summary of my history as scum. Given your comments D1 I assume it's also the reason you scumread me. That said, I would love to hear you chime in on how this has changed since D1.

To call out particular points, you said D1 that I sussed Blamp without reason which would understandably lead to the conclusion that I'm missing analysis. Yet I since showed you exactly where I was questioning Blamp's actions. On a similar note, you said that I had not reached firm conclusions on people and asked for a list of people I suspected and why. This came despite me having posted my thoughts on people earlier. Did you not find my conclusions in that post firm? In a comment to BB, I have also elaborated on why I both thought Sabi was suspicious and was hesitant to kill them D1 which I think explains the conclusion you felt you were missing in the initial post you highlighted.

[TheFlyingBoat]

to build upon what snowy pointed out, night solving is a powerful way to sort people because the mafia just don’t get as heavily invested in keeping up appearances during the night. the night phase is when they get to do their planning for how to attack town, and they’re often very busy figuring out how they want to frame the narrative, how they need to use their night actions, scanning the thread for PRs, etc. so naturally, their attention is diverted.

additionally, even on a “bad” day for town (mislynch), town gets a new piece of hard information that can help them figure out the puzzle, as well as a lot of soft information (votes and their movement, particularly near EOD). there’s a lot to unpack for town. but because mafia already knows what happened, it’s not nearly as exciting. town motivation naturally increases.

accordingly, I tend to townread active, solving nightposters more heavily, and in particular tend to be more suspicious of prior nulls who aren’t around.

and with all that in mind, the players jumping off the page as fitting the mafia tendency are:

- celaph
- worcej
- rivera
- Maniac
- damo
- bozo

pyxxy I guess too but he kinda gets a newbie pass imo. he clearly engaged with a lot more of what was going on than the rest of the list. also I feel bad I missed a question from him.

Demon had a low post count but his posts were absolute bangers so there’s nothing to worry about there. everyone else was actively involved in solving in various ways. ghug and Jamie maybe a bit behind the rest, and I think both are experienced enough to know they need to put in some amount of time on it, but still at least showing some amount of investment.

I’m not saying all four mafia are in that list of six but I am saying at least one is. probably multiple. this heuristic won’t catch the team but it will catch some of them, and in the process will force the survivors to go on the record.

I like the theory and think overall at first glance it is sound. My issue is with how you apply it. Your application reminds me of this: https://xkcd.com/1138/

Your set of 6 isn't a set of people who avoided the night, it's just a list of 6 inactive players. They were inactive during the day, they were inactive during the night. That doesn't suggest they're avoiding the night so much as they were just avoiding the game altogether, being lazy, or what have you.

Imo the correct way to look at this is to look at the obvious decreases from day to night.

Celaph is one going from 12th place in posts during the day to dead last at night with zero. Given he claimed that parents weekend kept him busy but he would be active after, one would expect to be able to post at least once during the second half of the night phase given it is a Monday morning to afternoon for him. That didn't happen at all. Very SAI.

Another is Bona. He drops from 4th to 10th. That's a notable drop, but the gap between 10th and 11th is fairly massive and his 16 posts are certainly numerous enough for a night and he did a lot of work with the SIMP spreadsheet. Still considering him town.

Other than those two most people do stay roughly where they are. Maybe less useful than I though given I basically got told an obv scum is obv scum and am disinclined to accept the implication on the latter for fairly substantive reasons. Perhaps the general inactivity chart is better than this attempt in this case because firing shots in the inactive pool generally does turn up a couple scum.

[celaph]

I don’t see that I’ve been inconsistent at all.

27 mins to go, I have a choice between TFB, Celaph, Chaqa and Kak. I’m town reading Celaph and Chaqa’s only -ve point is he wanted Celaph dead but that’s not really alignment indicative. So I was left choosing TFB over Kak, (who I’d already said I wouldn’t vote for easily). So TFB was best of bad choices.

Few minutes to go the two lead wagons were Celaph and Kak. As I town read Celaph, Kak was the only other choice unless someone got flash wagoned.

The problem is your townread of celaph materializes out of thin air, and contradicts

@chaqa and Ghug. Oh come on! Iso Celaph. They advise us that chickens eat carrots, politely stands up for Autists without attacking people, sees the best in Jamie and expresses concern for Macca’s situation. Sure they haven’t done anything to help town win the game, but we just can’t daykill them today and anyone trying to (looking at you Chaqa) is a monster.

where you indicate you have no townread of them. So when did that happen? Why?

I like that Blamp has picked up on the strongest argument against Maniac in my mind. Town points to blamp for that.

As I said to TFB, I still think that Maniac is lean town despite this case. To phrase it one way, I think Maniac townread me despite not thinking that I had contributed substantially to town winning the game. For what else, do you make of his comments defending me earlier.

I would be skeptical that Maniac has pocketed me here. I don't think he has commented on me an unreasonable number of times given both the questions to him and that I was the main cw. And I think that his contributions outside of discussions regarding me are solid. To add to the points I brought up earlier, I like his comments on Bona and Sabi. I'm not so ready to towncore Sabi, but I think Bona is strong town and I like Maniac's argument regarding Sabi.

[celaph]

I do worry that this is the first game where I town read Bona and not my usual null read of him.

Either I have gotten better at reading him or something is different about him this game.

Leaning towards the former.

Agreed that Bona is a strong town. Compared to my memory of Bona, he has kept the sas while writing in such a way that he can speak his mind persuasively. His posts towards you on EoD1 were a good example of all that.

[Maniac]

Is the bot broken for everyone. I’m seeing votes that happened D1 in D2 summary

[celaph]

Damn disappointing that Snowy was gone, especially given he didn't get to get into normal hard carry Snowy mode. Him and Durga were the two primary reasons I joined this game and Durga dropped

Anyways Celaph managed to avoid posting at all during the night so I'm feeling pretty comfortable voting ##VOTE Celaph here.

Given my lack of posting it you could say that your reasons for voting have not changed, but to phrase it as I "managed to avoid posting" is a blatant mischaracterization. I'm never an active night poster.

[BusinessLamp]

@sabi @Eden re: snowy’s post

I already said I was playing a different game starting an hour before end of day, so idc about people seeing I didn’t post early. That feels like a stretch to say that post motivated the kill

[BusinessLamp]

Maniac giving out town reads in the way he is ie: to celaph and sabi really feels manipulative and like he’s trying to shore up allies/relationships. someone vote this man with meeeee

[damo666]

Miles behind. Update summary please.

[celaph]

Celaph has many SIMPs. This is indicative of the fact that he does not respond to questions. Indeed, he has the lowest total SIMP factor of any active player (and lower than several inactive players). His only SIMP factor greater than 1 is with Kak. He only interacts with 2 players above 10 times (Sabi and Eden - the two highest posters) Why he refuses to talk about or with people is very strange given his previous play. I believe this is strongly scum indicative.

There is a big difference between talking about someone and talking to someone and Sabi's list doesn't make a distinction between those two. The reality is that people talked about me a lot more than they talked to me. I suspect that is true for most people.

You claim that the fact I'm heavily simped implies that I am not responding to questions, but that is not true. Go back and look at the posts and find ones where people are talking directly to me, not just about me. I respond to those posts. I'm heavily simped through a combination of my low post count and the amount of conversation around me, not because I'm ignoring people asking me questions.

Also, you note that I have only interacted with 2 players above 10 times. I made 30 posts at the time of your analysis for a total of 60 mentions. It's not surprising that I don't mention many people a lot when I'm not a high poster.

[celaph]

Alternative theory, I don't simp anyone as I'm loyal to kgray.

[BusinessLamp]

Off to eat dinner and bake a tart for my PI. Be back to finish catching up later tonight.

Private investigator?

i don’t get how the same person freaks about chaqa’s roleblock gambit and then comments this

[brainbomb]

I don't. Why do you like it?

I find brain's "look how great and towny celaph is but also y'all can kill him I won't argue" schtick very strange.

I think ghug is saying that he finds brain's newer post as still in the same vein of strange as he felt about the prior one. Not that he likes the post.

No, I liked it. Admittedly suboptimal play is a town thing.

this sort of implies that it is exclusively my responsibility to prove celaph is innocent and to fall short of anything else is poor play. how am I more responsible to play properly and exonerate celaph if their own actions arent event good enough to convince anyone?

the only thing I can actually do is catch scum instead. and even in doing that id have to tilt over 6 voters onto a case which would have to be so airtight and so monumental it would send unprecedented waves through the game

[brainbomb]

In any case I find the comment to pyxxy to fall exactly in line with scum talking to scum in game thread