M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[ghug]

Is it weird that Eden's townread of me waning makes me feel better about him?

[BesharamSabi]

Is it weird that Eden's townread of me waning makes me feel better about him?

I just want you to kiss and hug it out already

[President Eden]

Is it weird that Eden's townread of me waning makes me feel better about him?

that’s your conscience telling you to embrace the tryhard townie that still lives inside you, waiting to be unleashed and carry you to victory.

do it for cagey ray

[BesharamSabi]

Is it weird that Eden's townread of me waning makes me feel better about him?

that’s your conscience telling you to embrace the tryhard townie that still lives inside you, waiting to be unleashed and carry you to victory.

do it for cagey ray

Just kiss already

[President Eden]

Is it weird that Eden’s townread of me waning makes me feel better about him?

that’s your conscience telling you to embrace the tryhard townie that still lives inside you, waiting to be unleashed and carry you to victory.

do it for cagey ray

Just kiss already

you are a one-man cringe compilation

[BesharamSabi]

that’s your conscience telling you to embrace the tryhard townie that still lives inside you, waiting to be unleashed and carry you to victory.

do it for cagey ray

Just kiss already

you are a one-man cringe compilation

One-enby cringe compilation

Please

[President Eden]

your terms are acceptable

[pyxxy]

you’ve played IRL mafia before from what I recall, so you probably have dealt out roles via cards before. imagine somebody flipping their card over to reveal their role and you’ll get the idea.

Amazingly, somehow, never with cards. But yes the mafiascum wiki has carried me on its back since D1, and then I keep trying to use the right lingo to look cool and fit in, uh I mean to get in the groove of the game.

as for the question about Kak’s role, yes there is a situation where Kak was the Flipper. if Kak selected “vanilla town” as his Flipper choice, then he would be revealed as vanilla town on death, despite being mafia.

If a flipper picks VT, does their win condition change? I.e. does picking VT/a town role as the flipper mean that now you win if town wins? Or do you still just win if mafia wins?

Put another way, you’re sus on:
- celaph
- maniac
- bozo (with noted caveat)

which puts you one sus short of the four mafia in the game

and you’re null on:
- Jamie
- worcej (who said no time to post until Day “3”, just in case anyone missed that)
- pyxxy (myself)
- rdrivera2005

Out of the nulls, who do you currently think is the most likely to be the (theoretically) fourth and final mafia?

--------

okay I wrote that sentence and was about to publish but now I feel like it makes it sound like I’m trying to inception everyone into thinking those three are probably mafia, that’s not my intention, this is purely a question for Eden

this is a bit dated now as I’m now less certain that bozo is mafia than before. I’m not sure that I’m ready to take him out of my pool yet, but he’s a much more distant option than, say, celaph and Maniac. on further review I can’t really say why I don’t think damo can be mafia and think he should be in the pool. ghug kinda slippin too imo.

at this point I am thinking that 2-3 out of these six are mafia:

- celaph
- Maniac
- worcej
- damo
- rivera
- bozo

and that there’s at least one, but probably no more than two, mafia among the more active players. specifically looking at this pool:

- Boat (much higher probability if celaph is town; meh probability otherwise)
- Jamie
- ghug

unsure if this answered your question to your satisfaction but hopefully this is a useful insight into where I’m at rn.

It's very useful because we can kinda cross-reference it with your newer list.

accordingly, I tend to townread active, solving nightposters more heavily, and in particular tend to be more suspicious of prior nulls who aren’t around.

and with all that in mind, the players jumping off the page as fitting the mafia tendency are:

- celaph
- worcej
- rivera
- Maniac
- damo
- bozo

pyxxy I guess too but he kinda gets a newbie pass imo. he clearly engaged with a lot more of what was going on than the rest of the list. also I feel bad I missed a question from him.

Demon had a low post count but his posts were absolute bangers so there’s nothing to worry about there. everyone else was actively involved in solving in various ways. ghug and Jamie maybe a bit behind the rest, and I think both are experienced enough to know they need to put in some amount of time on it, but still at least showing some amount of investment.

I’m not saying all four mafia are in that list of six but I am saying at least one is. probably multiple. this heuristic won’t catch the team but it will catch some of them, and in the process will force the survivors to go on the record.

So everyone gets to see how your mind has changed, which tbh is one of the hardest things to track (before the invention of spreadsheets, apparently).

We can just put the N1 post numbers right next to your list too, for emphasis.

- celaph, zero posts
- worcej, 2 posts which somewhat explain his absence
- rivera, the carnival interlude
- Maniac, 3 posts: "Rip Kak", "why I flipped off my own TFB wagon", and "if I die, bury me deep" [ed note: ?????? on the last one]
- damo, 2 posts
- bozo, 3 posts

I hate to be a newbie that just defaults to "kill the low poster" every daytime, especially while I'm still wearing my posting floaties and floundering around in the kiddie pool. But. Zero posts?

From someone that posted at D1 EOD-13, -12, -10, -04, -03, and -01. Yet can't spare a single night post.

And while reviewing all these posts for those timestamps (this is exhausting idk how y'all do this every time you say "oh I should go ISO someone" like holy fuck I've been drafting this post for like 20 minutes), I ran back into celaph's D2 opener:

Starting catchup now.

I just reread EOD, and I feel like Chaqa's flip on me is opportunistic. He framed it as if he had always scum read me and was just waiting to catch someone trying to save me. Yet the only person who had voted for not me in recent times was Maniac. And if was really concerned with connecting Maniac to me, that work has already been done for him, by Maniac, who has consistently expressed a townread of me. Chaqa even asked him about it earlier so he should be aware of it.

If town Chaqa was genuinely trying to catch people connected to me, I think he would be well aware of the fact that he failed. Rather, I think the more likely explanation is that scum Chaqa would prefer me to die and wanted to cover his motive.

I thought this reasoning made sense at the time. It still does to an extent. But then I watched Chaqa try....whatever that was with the roleblocking thing .

Chaqa's D1 EOD "haha i tricked you celaph" feels like pretty similar behavior to Chaqa's "haha i was just trying to trick mafia into fake claims". And since you (Eden) + some others seem to think this was just Chaqa being Chaqa, then it makes celaph's immediate D2 post much weirder.

Finally, if I was town as celaph here, there is one more thing that I would have added to this D2 post. I would have said something like "I was laying low and not posting intentionally during the night in order to avoid mafia attention / look like a low poster aka mafia, because I had a scum read on Chaqa and wanted to try bait him into killing me".

Or something like this. Put another way. If I was absent all night, I would mention why, or I would have given people a heads up. Even just one joke night post like "if I die kill chaqa" removes a lot of suspicion. There were a bunch of these kinds of posts, and maybe it's enough to goad Chaqa into actually doing it.

All these things leave me coming to my first official scum read.

Celaph, I find thee sus.

##VOTE Celaph

[Maniac]

@eden - I can’t help you with your puzzle

@Bona - you’re in my town core team; congratulations. But you’re off target with your SIMP analysis. Firstly, where is snowy on your list? Apart from that the only thing we know is the person with the lowest SIMP value (Kak) is town. You’ve then deduced that the person with the second lowest SIMP value, Celaph, must be scum. Think you need to re-look at this.

@Sabi - you’re also I’m my town core, so much so that I’d die on that hill. I recall when I first started playing I toyed with creating a spreadsheet like yours, but I’m lazy so it never happened. I just can’t see scum faking this, and if scum!Sabi is faking this, you deserve to win. I might just sheep you this game.

@celaph voters. - I’ve re-read Celaph and still can’t see anything scummy about them. Y’all wrong.

[Maniac]

to add onto snowy’s observation I would include Maniac, whose only post in the thread immediately after EOD was “Rip Kakarroto.” not exactly sticking around to engage with your fellow townies in the thread.

actually I have a theory now. if Maniac is mafia this seemingly insignificant moment will change the way we play the game forever.

[Bonatogether]

@eden - I can’t help you with your puzzle

@Bona - you’re in my town core team; congratulations. But you’re off target with your SIMP analysis. Firstly, where is snowy on your list? Apart from that the only thing we know is the person with the lowest SIMP value (Kak) is town. You’ve then deduced that the person with the second lowest SIMP value, Celaph, must be scum. Think you need to re-look at this.

@Sabi - you’re also I’m my town core, so much so that I’d die on that hill. I recall when I first started playing I toyed with creating a spreadsheet like yours, but I’m lazy so it never happened. I just can’t see scum faking this, and if scum!Sabi is faking this, you deserve to win. I might just sheep you this game.

@celaph voters. - I’ve re-read Celaph and still can’t see anything scummy about them. Y’all wrong.

Kak disappeared for most of d1 and celaph did not. Celaph had discussion and isn't responding to discussion about himself. He continues to not make up the shortfall. There is a difference. The raw SIMP score is not especially meaningful but in context it is useful, I believe.

Snowy was not exceptionally noteworthy wrt SIMP. All of his scores are between -5 and 5 except for his with Jamie (-7, which appears to be not engaging as much) and kak (12, who rarely posted enough to engage with anyone until the end). By this analysis, he had a level of mutual interactions similar to every other person in the game who was active except Jamie, and that is only by a little.

[Maniac]

Well that’s disappointing. Just re-read chaqa looking for a reason to vote for him and couldn’t find one. Too tired to iso anyone else.

@Bona - thanks for explanation, but why wasn’t snowy on your list?

[Chaqa]

Not sure how I feel about the celaph wagon being a runaway.

On one hand, he’s very scummy.

On the other, it’s not super informative, but I suppose it’s better to “kill the momentum” early while there’s enough players to keep things active?

I miss snowy.

[President Eden]

welcome to Towntown pyxxy

@Maniac: sacre bleu! the shepherd of c’ntr’ct’n theory abandons his flock to the wolves. fortunately for them, from the flock emerges a mighty GOAT

[Chaqa]

What if we leave celaph alive so the JOAT can oof him?

[pyxxy]

What if we leave celaph alive so the JOAT can oof him?

in before Chaqa asks the JOAT to confirm that they're willing to do this

[Chaqa]

What if we leave celaph alive so the JOAT can oof him?

in before Chaqa asks the JOAT to confirm that they're willing to do this

If they don’t they’re lame

[President Eden]

What if we leave celaph alive so the JOAT can oof him?

what gives you confidence that the JOAT would actually do that, given that they didn’t just do it n1 and save us the trouble?

JOAT probably has to yeet an inactive anyway

[Chaqa]

What if we leave celaph alive so the JOAT can oof him?

what gives you confidence that the JOAT would actually do that, given that they didn’t just do it n1 and save us the trouble?

JOAT probably has to yeet an inactive anyway

Well, if we explicitly leave him alive so the Joat can do it, they would be obligated to, no?

Just trying to think of ways to not spend 48 hours drawinfnout celaph’s death

[celaph]

Well, I feel like an human being again. Sorry for missing EOD and not voting. If GMs think I should be replaced I fully understand.

I read EOD and night posts Some things I got from them:

Chaqa is scum, that comment to Eden is all I need to know this.

Sabi is probably town, their tone looks angry town and not fake angry scum like the last time they was scum and I called for their kill.

I should be around more now, but it's still Carnaval here until tomorrow, so who knows....

Which comment from Chaqa to Eden?