M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[BesharamSabi]

I present to you the most powerful tool in the game

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/stats?g=73&phase=global

Now let's play the game "who went zzz immediately at EoD"

Code: Select all

Player	Last (Now)
BesharamSabi	00:17
President Eden	00:04
Jamiet99uk	00:46
Bonatogether	00:43
snowy801        00:23
brainbomb	01:47
TheFlyingBoat	00:14
Chaqa	        00:22
ghug	        06:45
BusinessLamp	01:16
DemonRHK	00:58
celaph	        01:16
bozotheclown	01:16
damo666	        03:34
Maniac	        00:59
pyxxy	        03:31
rdrivera2005	03:14

Blamp, Celaph, bozo eh

Hmm I do find this interesting because blamp was online in bottom bar for a good part of the real time night part of night one.

Interesting.

Could point to a fear kill?

[BesharamSabi]

I present to you the most powerful tool in the game

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/stats?g=73&phase=global

Now let's play the game "who went zzz immediately at EoD"

Code: Select all

Player	Last (Now)
BesharamSabi	00:17
President Eden	00:04
Jamiet99uk	00:46
Bonatogether	00:43
snowy801        00:23
brainbomb	01:47
TheFlyingBoat	00:14
Chaqa	        00:22
ghug	        06:45
BusinessLamp	01:16
DemonRHK	00:58
celaph	        01:16
bozotheclown	01:16
damo666	        03:34
Maniac	        00:59
pyxxy	        03:31
rdrivera2005	03:14

Blamp, Celaph, bozo eh

Funny, those are 3 of the last 4 players to vote Kaka as well
Am I trying to insinuate something here? Probably. Someone do it for me

Yep might have been a fear fueled kill.

[President Eden]

So far eden simped FOR me during night one

I got the sauce.

you were too busy building the spreadsheet to talk, so your normal astronomically high amount of gossiping about others came down to Earth.

Whatever you say simp.

you are the simp analogue of the people who said “buy the dip bro” when the market dead cat bounced in 2020

[President Eden]

to add onto snowy’s observation I would include Maniac, whose only post in the thread immediately after EOD was “Rip Kakarroto.” not exactly sticking around to engage with your fellow townies in the thread.

actually I have a theory now. if Maniac is mafia this seemingly insignificant moment will change the way we play the game forever.

[President Eden]

never mind.

for the curious, I thought it was bizarre that Maniac decisively swung Kak with 3 minutes to go and then said “Rip Kak” after Kak died. like what? didn’t you think he was mafia? oddly sympathetic, or apologetic.

but a very quick scan of past games indicates that there isn’t a clear trend of him doing that only as mafia. it’s not clear what the pattern is that leads him to do it or not, but it’s not tied to alignment.

oh well

[BesharamSabi]

Done updating sheet for night 1

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=drivesdk

Boatman was simping Chaqa hardcore, Chaqa congrats.

Jamiet simped for brainbomb. The love triangle grows.

There's a few observations I made about certain interactions (or lack of) between people. I don't want to reveal that because I don't want to influence it so I'm going to observe day two and see if the numbers change or not.

Interesting stuff.

[ghug]

I don't have as many townreads as I'd like at this point. Sabi seems like town. I'm inclined to townread Eden, which is making me scumread him. I wanted to townread Chaqa for the "because" thing, but if Eden told him to do that before the game, maybe he felt like he had to. He sits in a pool with brain, RHK, Jamie, celaph, snowy of people who seem like their town selves but haven't done anything that's impossible to fake.

Below them are the true nulls: rd, pyxxy, worcej, Bona damo, Maniac. Boat could maybe be in this box too but I'm more inclined to kill him because his wagon's death is sketch. Bozo and lamp also seem like decent killing options. I think that's everyone?

This post mentions Rd and damo. Why is it not reflected?

[BesharamSabi]

I don't have as many townreads as I'd like at this point. Sabi seems like town. I'm inclined to townread Eden, which is making me scumread him. I wanted to townread Chaqa for the "because" thing, but if Eden told him to do that before the game, maybe he felt like he had to. He sits in a pool with brain, RHK, Jamie, celaph, snowy of people who seem like their town selves but haven't done anything that's impossible to fake.

Below them are the true nulls: rd, pyxxy, worcej, Bona damo, Maniac. Boat could maybe be in this box too but I'm more inclined to kill him because his wagon's death is sketch. Bozo and lamp also seem like decent killing options. I think that's everyone?

This post mentions Rd and damo. Why is it not reflected?

Did you check. Night one because it's there

[Chaqa]

##Call GM is Rdrivera still in the game? I didn't see an update.

I tried asking him on discord which was apparently the wrong place. Currently he is not subbed out but he may be soon.

Well, seems Bob decided to let me stay on the game so I am back.

And I will ##vote Chaqa so I don't risk not voting again.

Do you have a reason for voting me?

[BesharamSabi]

I noticed I haven't updated the overall sheet to include night one for a lot of the cells so disregard that sheet.

I shut down my laptop for the night so I will fix it tomorrow.

[BesharamSabi]

you were too busy building the spreadsheet to talk, so your normal astronomically high amount of gossiping about others came down to Earth.

Whatever you say simp.

you are the simp analogue of the people who said “buy the dip bro” when the market dead cat bounced in 2020

Love you too eden

[President Eden]

to build upon what snowy pointed out, night solving is a powerful way to sort people because the mafia just don’t get as heavily invested in keeping up appearances during the night. the night phase is when they get to do their planning for how to attack town, and they’re often very busy figuring out how they want to frame the narrative, how they need to use their night actions, scanning the thread for PRs, etc. so naturally, their attention is diverted.

additionally, even on a “bad” day for town (mislynch), town gets a new piece of hard information that can help them figure out the puzzle, as well as a lot of soft information (votes and their movement, particularly near EOD). there’s a lot to unpack for town. but because mafia already knows what happened, it’s not nearly as exciting. town motivation naturally increases.

accordingly, I tend to townread active, solving nightposters more heavily, and in particular tend to be more suspicious of prior nulls who aren’t around.

and with all that in mind, the players jumping off the page as fitting the mafia tendency are:

- celaph
- worcej
- rivera
- Maniac
- damo
- bozo

pyxxy I guess too but he kinda gets a newbie pass imo. he clearly engaged with a lot more of what was going on than the rest of the list. also I feel bad I missed a question from him.

Demon had a low post count but his posts were absolute bangers so there’s nothing to worry about there. everyone else was actively involved in solving in various ways. ghug and Jamie maybe a bit behind the rest, and I think both are experienced enough to know they need to put in some amount of time on it, but still at least showing some amount of investment.

I’m not saying all four mafia are in that list of six but I am saying at least one is. probably multiple. this heuristic won’t catch the team but it will catch some of them, and in the process will force the survivors to go on the record.

[ghug]

I don't have as many townreads as I'd like at this point. Sabi seems like town. I'm inclined to townread Eden, which is making me scumread him. I wanted to townread Chaqa for the "because" thing, but if Eden told him to do that before the game, maybe he felt like he had to. He sits in a pool with brain, RHK, Jamie, celaph, snowy of people who seem like their town selves but haven't done anything that's impossible to fake.

Below them are the true nulls: rd, pyxxy, worcej, Bona damo, Maniac. Boat could maybe be in this box too but I'm more inclined to kill him because his wagon's death is sketch. Bozo and lamp also seem like decent killing options. I think that's everyone?

This post mentions Rd and damo. Why is it not reflected?

Did you check. Night one because it's there

What is Overall Game then?

[ghug]

I noticed I haven't updated the overall sheet to include night one for a lot of the cells so disregard that sheet.

I shut down my laptop for the night so I will fix it tomorrow.

Ah, got it.

[BesharamSabi]

I will say that doing this sheet has forced me to reread people (hence me catching stuff I missed). I feel a lot more productive and in tune with the game.

[BesharamSabi]

I noticed I haven't updated the overall sheet to include night one for a lot of the cells so disregard that sheet.

I shut down my laptop for the night so I will fix it tomorrow.

Ah, got it.

Yea I thought I fixed the formula I that sheet to include night but it looks like I did it halfway. I apologize for that

[ghug]

to build upon what snowy pointed out, night solving is a powerful way to sort people because the mafia just don’t get as heavily invested in keeping up appearances during the night. the night phase is when they get to do their planning for how to attack town, and they’re often very busy figuring out how they want to frame the narrative, how they need to use their night actions, scanning the thread for PRs, etc. so naturally, their attention is diverted.

additionally, even on a “bad” day for town (mislynch), town gets a new piece of hard information that can help them figure out the puzzle, as well as a lot of soft information (votes and their movement, particularly near EOD). there’s a lot to unpack for town. but because mafia already knows what happened, it’s not nearly as exciting. town motivation naturally increases.

accordingly, I tend to townread active, solving nightposters more heavily, and in particular tend to be more suspicious of prior nulls who aren’t around.

and with all that in mind, the players jumping off the page as fitting the mafia tendency are:

- celaph
- worcej
- rivera
- Maniac
- damo
- bozo

pyxxy I guess too but he kinda gets a newbie pass imo. he clearly engaged with a lot more of what was going on than the rest of the list. also I feel bad I missed a question from him.

Demon had a low post count but his posts were absolute bangers so there’s nothing to worry about there. everyone else was actively involved in solving in various ways. ghug and Jamie maybe a bit behind the rest, and I think both are experienced enough to know they need to put in some amount of time on it, but still at least showing some amount of investment.

I’m not saying all four mafia are in that list of six but I am saying at least one is. probably multiple. this heuristic won’t catch the team but it will catch some of them, and in the process will force the survivors to go on the record.

At least one mafia in a group of six? Going out on a limb there.

I think you've given a list of people who aren't participating very much in general, which does tend to be scum indicative, but obviously isn't foolproof. I don't think night inactivity in general is a good metric. If anything, scum have to think about the game at night, whereas town can use it as an opportunity to recharge.

[President Eden]

@pyxxy:

Oh actually I meant to ask this in my town!bona post, are there any situations where Kak is/was actually scum? I’ve read all the role explanations and searched their powers on the internet but it’s still my first game so I’m getting a little confused between “flipper” and “flipped town” etc etc

I believe it was already explained through context but a “flip” is what we call it when someone dies and their role is revealed. you’ve played IRL mafia before from what I recall, so you probably have dealt out roles via cards before. imagine somebody flipping their card over to reveal their role and you’ll get the idea.

as for the question about Kak’s role, yes there is a situation where Kak was the Flipper. if Kak selected “vanilla town” as his Flipper choice, then he would be revealed as vanilla town on death, despite being mafia.

is that particularly likely? based on his final post, I kind of doubt it. I do think Kak is the kind of player who might select VT instead of a town PR. but I think regardless of alignment, Kak was genuine in his belief that flipping Miller would be the most devastating play for the Flipper to make, and he even lampshaded the possibility of him flipping Miller. I think he would have chosen Miller. he also didn’t set himself up to fakeclaim a PR and then flip as it, which is the line I would expect from the Flipper in the abstract. I think he was just a VT.

Put another way, you’re sus on:
- celaph
- maniac
- bozo (with noted caveat)

which puts you one sus short of the four mafia in the game

and you’re null on:
- Jamie
- worcej (who said no time to post until Day “3”, just in case anyone missed that)
- pyxxy (myself)
- rdrivera2005

Out of the nulls, who do you currently think is the most likely to be the (theoretically) fourth and final mafia?

--------

okay I wrote that sentence and was about to publish but now I feel like it makes it sound like I’m trying to inception everyone into thinking those three are probably mafia, that’s not my intention, this is purely a question for Eden

this is a bit dated now as I’m now less certain that bozo is mafia than before. I’m not sure that I’m ready to take him out of my pool yet, but he’s a much more distant option than, say, celaph and Maniac. on further review I can’t really say why I don’t think damo can be mafia and think he should be in the pool. ghug kinda slippin too imo.

at this point I am thinking that 2-3 out of these six are mafia:

- celaph
- Maniac
- worcej
- damo
- rivera
- bozo

and that there’s at least one, but probably no more than two, mafia among the more active players. specifically looking at this pool:

- Boat (much higher probability if celaph is town; meh probability otherwise)
- Jamie
- ghug

unsure if this answered your question to your satisfaction but hopefully this is a useful insight into where I’m at rn.

[President Eden]

to build upon what snowy pointed out, night solving is a powerful way to sort people because the mafia just don’t get as heavily invested in keeping up appearances during the night. the night phase is when they get to do their planning for how to attack town, and they’re often very busy figuring out how they want to frame the narrative, how they need to use their night actions, scanning the thread for PRs, etc. so naturally, their attention is diverted.

additionally, even on a “bad” day for town (mislynch), town gets a new piece of hard information that can help them figure out the puzzle, as well as a lot of soft information (votes and their movement, particularly near EOD). there’s a lot to unpack for town. but because mafia already knows what happened, it’s not nearly as exciting. town motivation naturally increases.

accordingly, I tend to townread active, solving nightposters more heavily, and in particular tend to be more suspicious of prior nulls who aren’t around.

and with all that in mind, the players jumping off the page as fitting the mafia tendency are:

- celaph
- worcej
- rivera
- Maniac
- damo
- bozo

pyxxy I guess too but he kinda gets a newbie pass imo. he clearly engaged with a lot more of what was going on than the rest of the list. also I feel bad I missed a question from him.

Demon had a low post count but his posts were absolute bangers so there’s nothing to worry about there. everyone else was actively involved in solving in various ways. ghug and Jamie maybe a bit behind the rest, and I think both are experienced enough to know they need to put in some amount of time on it, but still at least showing some amount of investment.

I’m not saying all four mafia are in that list of six but I am saying at least one is. probably multiple. this heuristic won’t catch the team but it will catch some of them, and in the process will force the survivors to go on the record.

At least one mafia in a group of six? Going out on a limb there.

I think you’ve given a list of people who aren’t participating very much in general, which does tend to be scum indicative, but obviously isn’t foolproof. I don’t think night inactivity in general is a good metric. If anything, scum have to think about the game at night, whereas town can use it as an opportunity to recharge.

x-post, I actually bumped it to 2-3 upon thinking more about pyxxy’s question from the night. and tbh while I give him newbie pass, he probably should be in there logically. just think that the heuristic is less indicative for a newer player than most as their posting is probably more tied to IRL availability (we forget how hard it can be to keep up with these massive games) than to specific in-game events occurring.

[BesharamSabi]

Pyxxy has been busy most of the day due to personal stuff (can verify this because he's my assistant director for the press league and we were late with setting up rosters for games today). I highly doubt he could fake that.

But yea him being MIA during night is NAI.