War, what is it good for?

[Octavious]

It is an odd sort of conflict. From what I can make out the major gas transit pipelines from Russia to Europe via Ukraine are still very much in operation. Europe continues to buy, Russia continues to sell, and continues to pay Ukraine the transit fee.

The peace talks will prove enlightening regarding what Putin wants. It seems clear from the fact that Ukraine are turning up that they are prepared to give him something significant. You don't travel to a third nation just to say "get the hell out of my country", after all.

My guess is that Putin would be willing to settle for the breakaway regions permanently leaving Ukraine, with Ukraine dropping all claims to them and Crimea in perpetuity, as well as some guarantee that Ukraine will join neither the EU or NATO. Putin's hope being that "defeating" the Russian invasion will be a big enough "win" to paper over what objectively will be a major loss for Ukraine. The exchange of money in the form of guarantees about the future use of the pipeline will likely be the sweetener that clinches the deal. Still, time will tell.

[Matticus13]

I doubt any meaningful dialog occurred. Both sides feeling each other out. Any proposals at this point are likely (politically) unrealistic for either side at the moment.

If the EU, UK, US, and other major economies can continue to find effective means of cutting off the Russian economy in creative ways (like freezing hard currency reserves earlier today), perhaps the Ukrainian government can gain the upper hand at the negotiations in a couple weeks. The main problem for those who wish to punish Russia, risk additional inflation as well. They also have elections to worry about...

I will say that the US Congress and the Biden Administration know China is taking notes, see Taiwan. This is the stage to convince Xi it's not worth it. Russia of course is not China (especially economically), but still a useful stage/sandbox to show some backbone.

[Octavious]

I would be very much surprised if nothing meaningful was discussed. The entire conflict thus far has been little more than a negotiation. Russia has spent a few days showing Ukraine that it's serious without actually doing anything particularly damaging. The message to Ukraine will now be to give Russia what it wants or see Ukraine go the way of Syria and Grozny. Ukraine is being presented with fighting on and losing, or fighting on and emerging victorious at terrible cost, or capitulating and walking away with most of their country intact and population unharmed.

Russia has spent some time telling the wider world that sanctions can be weathered, and gave that particularly harsh reminder about its nuclear ability as a warning to NATO against considering more hands on action such as no fly zones. Russia is moving overwhelming forces to Kyiv. Despite a persistent wave of pro-Ukraine propaganda claiming that Russia has been massively slowed and heavily punished, there are very few hard facts to back this up. The Ukrainian position is not strong.

The idea of punishing Russia is an interesting one. There may well be elements of the West who desire that, but it's very much not their call. If Ukraine decides it wants to deal, a deal happens. Out of curiosity, as a general inquiry as to where you stand regarding pragmatism and justice, if you could stop the war tomorrow by brokering an agreement that would see the status quo of the start of the year restored indefinitely at the cost of giving Putin and his 12 closest cronies $billion each... would you do it?

[orathaic]

I have missed the politics... The drama... The tangents... Where'd Alex go? Back to Russia??

Maybe back to the topic of Russian invasion, and what it could be good for: my bet would be Putin adding to his legacy (as far as he's concerned).

Putin is a narcissistic, KGB relic who pines for the "good ol' days" once more. The reintegration of Ukraine (via installed puppet government) into the Russian led Collective Security Treaty Organization would be another step toward establishing the NewSSR. So, one day he can be remembered amongst Ivan, Alexander, and Uncle Joe.

I do think he underestimated the response from the Ukrainian people and the EU. I expect the fighting to ramp up after (I wouldn't be surprised if they launched a major assault during) "peace talks" fail this morning. A rather large column of armor is very near Kyiv now... Russia has supposedly created a safe passage out of Kyiv for the civilian population.

I don't see Putin stopping until he has Kyiv. The longer it takes, the less he will care about civilian casualties.

Great discussion of Putin and Russia's capabilities here:

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... RoRcB4kHJg

[orathaic]

https://twitter.com/bdel08/status/14983 ... RoRcB4kHJg

Octavious, i know nothing we hear from inside Ukraine can be 100% trusted, and even if this is completely accurate it is still highly cherry picked

But still, i do not get the impression from all the video footage i am seeing that morale among the Russian troops is particularly high right now.

Which goes a way towards suggesting your analysis is overly, em, positive? Biased at least, in favour of Russia.

[Octavious]

You have an interesting definition of positive. My analysis was unrelentingly bleak. I don't see any bias to it. It is quite clear that Russia has been holding off from anything major in the opening days, predicting (somewhat accurately) that Ukraine will focus on defending population centres rather than mounting counter attacks.

Russia has the ability to launch a devastating air campaign against Ukraine using thousands of jets and countless missiles. It has chosen thus far not to, and the only reason is to give Ukraine a chance to capitulate.

My prediction is that the next phase will see a Ukrainian city being increasingly made an example of to further encourage Ukraine's capitulation. If it becomes clear that Ukraine has decided to fight on regardless, then we will see the full strength of the Russian military displayed. And all we can do then is hope against hope that someone high up in Russia will move against Putin and end it before Ukraine becomes another Syria

[Matticus13]

I would be very much surprised if nothing meaningful was discussed. The entire conflict thus far has been little more than a negotiation. Russia has spent a few days showing Ukraine that it's serious without actually doing anything particularly damaging. The message to Ukraine will now be to give Russia what it wants or see Ukraine go the way of Syria and Grozny. Ukraine is being presented with fighting on and losing, or fighting on and emerging victorious at terrible cost, or capitulating and walking away with most of their country intact and population unharmed

The Russian Minister of Culture repeatedly expressing Putin's demands could qualify as *meaningful*. I don't expect anything to come of it. Why would Ukraine believe anything Putin offered would be lasting? They've been invaded 3 times in less than 10 years. Russia won't stop until there's a regime change.

Russia has spent some time telling the wider world that sanctions can be weathered, and gave that particularly harsh reminder about its nuclear ability as a warning to NATO against considering more hands on action such as no fly zones. Russia is moving overwhelming forces to Kyiv. Despite a persistent wave of pro-Ukraine propaganda claiming that Russia has been massively slowed and heavily punished, there are very few hard facts to back this up. The Ukrainian position is not strong.

Ukraine certainly will not be able to hold the line indefinitely. The real assault on Kyiv will begin shortly and Russian forces will eventually be able to overwhelm the defenders. I expect Ukraine to continue an asymmetrical campaign in and around the large cities. They will be well equipped to do so for months; the cyberwar and pipelines carrying Russia gas through Ukraine could be sources of pressure Ukraine can apply. I don't expect it to change the end result, unfortunately.

Out of curiosity, as a general inquiry as to where you stand regarding pragmatism and justice, if you could stop the war tomorrow by brokering an agreement that would see the status quo of the start of the year restored indefinitely at the cost of giving Putin and his 12 closest cronies $billion each... would you do it?

$13 billion vs the cost in lives, infrastructure, environmental, aid (lethal and non), and on, I'd pay the money, assuming the $$$ ends it for good. $13 billion is a drop in the bucket, and Putin himself will suffer no personal consequences from the conflict (regardless of outcome). His grip on power and personal wealth won't be touched by sanctions nor the war.

[Octavious]

The Russian Minister of Culture repeatedly expressing Putin's demands could qualify as *meaningful*. I don't expect anything to come of it. Why would Ukraine believe anything Putin offered would be lasting? They've been invaded 3 times in less than 10 years. Russia won't stop until there's a regime change.

Because pretty much every war in the history of humanity has ended with a negotiated solution? It is how international politics works. War is the mechanism to destabilise the existing equilibrium and diplomacy creates a new one. Regime change is not important if you can convince the existing regime to do what you want.

There are various factors at play here. Zelenskyy himself is a family man with a wife and children who has not planned to spend the next few years as a war leader constantly in fear of military strike and assassins. He will not want to see his country destroyed and his people killed. There are those in Ukraine who believe that it's possible for NATO to establish a no fly zone, but they will be bitterly disappointed. NATO will never risk shooting down Russian planes themselves.

Glorious last stands always sound more romantic on paper. When reality strikes and your glorious last stand looks both painful and pointless and you'll be dragging everyone you love into hell with you... alternative options can be quite appealing.

[Octavious]

Ukraine ask for immediate EU membership.

The EU says no.

Ukraine is given candidate status instead, which is... I don't really know. A needless provocation? A reason for Russia not to seek an early end to the war? A useful card for Ukraine to play in peace negotiations?

[Matticus13]

Just to clarify, I do eventually see the war ending with a negotiated solution, but not before Ukraine or Russia walks away from the table, and the true Russian assault begins. Then, another round of negotiations very well may end the conflict.

[orathaic]

Ukraine ask for immediate EU membership.

The EU says no.

Ukraine is given candidate status instead, which is... I don't really know. A needless provocation? A reason for Russia not to seek an early end to the war? A useful card for Ukraine to play in peace negotiations?

Continued par for course EU position .. we will just act without really thinking about the consequences.

I mean, it seem like the US and France really do want peace, and are willing to help Zelensky flee and setup a government in exile to end the fighting (and for them to save face, i guess)... Which would likely be seen as handing Ukraine to Putin - and I presume he'd be fine with it... I mean unless he cares more about killing Zelensky than securing Ukraine. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[orathaic]

Just to clarify, I do eventually see the war ending with a negotiated solution, but not before Ukraine or Russia walks away from the table, and the true Russian assault begins. Then, another round of negotiations very well may end the conflict.

I suspect Russia will 'end' the conflict when the establish a puppet government, and declared a new Ukraine Oblast within Russia (or recognise it as a seperate Republic like the two new ones they just did...).

And it will continue as Russian troops occupy this new Republic fighting a decade long insurgency.

Perhaps Putin dies and there is nobody competent to replace him... Perhaps continued sanctions, moves away from fossil fuels, and wasted lives fighting a Ukrainian insurgency will bring Russia to the brink of collapse... But this scenario doesn't end well for anyone concerned - the myth of Ukraine lives on and despite the devestating cost in human life and suffering, they rebuild.

I hope i am wrong...

[flash2015]

This is an interesting video. I didn't know about the extent of the gas finds in Ukraine and the amount of these reserves near Crimea and the disputed territories in the east. I also didn't know about Ukraine shutting off the water to Crimea which is causing all sorts of problems there:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE&t=636s

[Matticus13]

Lukashenko happened to show an invasion map of Ukraine yesterday. All of the invasion points match up except for one... An arrow indicating Russian forces landing at Odessa, heading towards pro-Russian Transnistria. I had never even heard of Transnistria, which is technically still Moldova.

[Octavious]

Yes, and portrayed as a Lukashenko cock-up where he accidentally gives the game away. The most remarkable thing is that quite a lot of Western media seem to believe that this is actually true, rather than a transparent attempt to reinforce their preferred narrative.

I think journalists would benefit from playing a couple of games of diplomacy and getting a feel for the importance of spreading misinformation to your enemy.

[Octavious]

One good war crime deserves another...

https://www.facebook.com/16374366798213 ... 028931719/

You really hope it's some sort of Russian disinformation campaign...

[Octavious]

A lot has been talked about what Russia wants from this war, and it's clear enough what Ukraine wants (mostly), but very little is talked about what the West wants. We are a significant actor in the conflict, providing a vast array of armaments and supplies and many a round of applause (hey, it "worked" for Covid so why not Ukraine?). But what do we actually want?

I've not seen any evidence of us doing anything that could win the war for Ukraine. No no fly zones, no boots on the ground (one wonders if Putin would have dared to invade if NATO nations had put a few battalions of troops in Ukraine for a peace and goodwill exercise a few weeks ago? A UN mission to "keep the peace" between government controlled Ukraine and the breakaway regions perhaps?). All I've seen from us so far looks little more than an exciting opportunity to test some fun new weapons in the field.

To me it feels that we have little interest in Ukraine winning. Our strategy seems limited to making sure Russia pays dearly for their victory, in order to discourage further foreign adventures in the future. The Ukrainians are a tool to achieve this goal, given just enough resources and encouragement to keep them fighting on. As long as they have hope they will continue doing what we want. Russia will be made to pay a horrible cost, and the blood of Ukraine will extract the price for us.

At the end of it all Russia and the west will have its buffer state, Europe will have received another injection of badly needed cheap labour, the West will have its traditional bogeyman cemented back in the minds of its people, and the EU will finally have enough momentum to force through the European Army plans and move forward with ever closer union. The gas will flow. I guess that's what victory looks like...

Anyone feel like celebrating?

[orathaic]

The western goals are clear. Hurt Russia while not risking a nuclear escalation.

But even talking about 'Western' goals is kinda silly, who do you mean? The US goal? The EU? The UK? The Eastern European countries who will be hosting most of the refugees?

Each country has different goals, the EU wants to act as a coherent player on the global stage (even during a war, despite not having an army). Because that is something the EU member states have all agreed on. NATO wants to remain relevant, and possibly see Russia post-Putin.

Further there are stated goals, like i can state my goal is to see Ukraine free from Russian troops including the occupied regions in the East (though i am flexible on Crimea). What i can do to actually achieve those goals is a seperate question (next to nothing? Maybe donate some money/sleeping bags to organisations helping Ukrainians...) Not sure what you would conclude about my goals based on my actions...

[Matticus13]

What Octavious said, plus a western sanction sandbox for the eventual invasion of Taiwan. The US won't be able to keep China out indefinitely, assuming elected officials at the time would not risk nuclear escalation.

[orathaic]

https://youtu.be/l2iyRgVgWbs

Interesting discussion of how to de-escalate the situation.