M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[snowy801]

No one but I want to know if it’s worth spending time on it or not.

who do you expect to know the answer to this, and why do you expect them to know it?

I was hoping for group think but I guess it's not worth it. Basing off their mutual interaction numbers (5) it doesn't seem significant either way (bozo has low interaction numbers in general) (ghug spent most of his interactions with you eden)

It's true love

[BesharamSabi]

Some thoughts

Rdriveria - doing carnival gets him a pass for d1 I suppose
Damo - says he fell for bozo’s ruse and has contributed nothing so far. Hasn’t come under any pressure. I’d happily vote Damo.
Macca - flooded house gets him a D1 pass - hope everything is being sorted Macca.
Pyxxy - one posts that makes them look engaged and then very little follow up. I’d happily vote Pyxis today.
Bozo - unusually quiet. Hasn’t received any pressure. I’d happily vote Bozo today.
Celaph - I won’t vote Celaph today.
Chaqa - would vote for Celaph which makes me want to kill him now. Would more than happily vote Chaqa today.
Jamie - I’d be eggstatic to vote for Jamie today and any other day.
Snowy. Ghug and TFB - if push came to shove I’d vote for one of these.
I’d need a lot of convincing to vote for sabi, demon or Kakarroto.
President Eden is now off my kill list for now. ##unvote Eden

Rest are null.

Making a note he left out only Bona and blamp

And what do you think that means? I want to see more conclusions from you. That was what was helping me see you more as town.

I can only do one thing at a time lol.

Nothing right now can be glean from that except Maniac never once mentuoned/reference/replied/quoted both Bona and blamp. Bona also never mentioned/replied/quoted/referenced Maniac but he mentioned blamp in 10 posts. Blamp on the other hand mentioned Maniac 5 times and Bona in 2 posts.

What exactly can I conclude from this, idk yet. I need more info and what not.

[pyxxy]

Well, shit. Back from brunch. Rip kak. Now I feel like a tool. All you people who said D1 voting is just for fun, you lied

Please look at his contribution. He doesn't have an excuse like rdr. He has done less than what celaph has done this game.

why is that a scum-motivated behavoir? you haven't shown that, whereas celaph's posting is much more typical of scum!celaph

What concrete evidence of scum celaph meta is showing up?

He has been dodging questions and what not. Made one. Post and dipped. Him and rdr have done the least this game.

what a dumb kill

claiming inactivity is grounds for a kill (not on policy) is dumb and this is why.

Bona was consistent with his reasoning here and did so prior to the kak wagon at the end (I just re-read iso Bona to make sure). Makes me think...town!Bona?

It's possible that scum would try to defend a town to look town, but I would expect this to happen after wagon momentum picks up, not before. I think kak was only on 3 votes and...someone else was on 4? I don't remember.

Bona could have just taken a good opportunity to build town cred + friendship with kak (since as scum he would know kak was town) and got lucky/bonus cred that we axed kak. But. Idk. Not what my gut says. Gut likes Bona.

[TheFlyingBoat]

No one but I want to know if it’s worth spending time on it or not.

who do you expect to know the answer to this, and why do you expect them to know it?

I was hoping for group think but I guess it's not worth it. Basing off their mutual interaction numbers (5) it doesn't seem significant either way (bozo has low interaction numbers in general) (ghug spent most of his interactions with you eden)

I disagree. I think it could be worth it. There won't be any magic numbers that guarantee someone is scum or town and trying to do that with spreadsheet wizardry is a fool's errand, but that doesn't mean that spreadsheets can't be valuable. After seeing the results you generate, if we see outliers of interaction beyond what's expected based on activity, a qualititative analysis of the actual posts themselves could likely yield positive results.

tl;dr worth doing because it could act as a very nice pointer that could catch things the human eye might miss, but isn't an all-in-one solution itself.

[Bonatogether]

It makes Sabi look very towny though.

i disagree with this. their story changed over the course of our argument which is very ??? in my view. it’s not necessarily scum, as it is sabi, but i don’t believe it’s towny

ghug’s right.

write this down in your homework son, both because it is a historic occasion for me to utter the above words, and because there’s a lesson here.

as a heuristic (so don’t take this as gospel, it’s not always true, it’s just a trend), mafia are more likely to keep their stories straight than town. people getting passionately entrenched in a plainly inconsistent position and moving the goalposts to protect that position are more likely townies clinging to what they think they have than they are mafia (who, having the advantage of knowing basically all the information, can simply pick a position consistent with what the town knows in the first place).

to really use this you want to look to whether there was mafia motivation to defend that specific ground despite the cost in looking inconsistent (because as much as inconsistency isn’t really a mafia tell, townies love killing people based on it). if there isn’t an apparent mafia motivation for getting that entrenched, it’s probably a townie

In general, I would agree with you, but sabi has shown that they very much don't play like most other people, so I don't know how much this applies to them.

I'm also not claiming it's scummy, but I'm very uneasy about using it as a reason to townread them.

[BesharamSabi]

who do you expect to know the answer to this, and why do you expect them to know it?

I was hoping for group think but I guess it’s not worth it. Basing off their mutual interaction numbers (5) it doesn’t seem significant either way (bozo has low interaction numbers in general) (ghug spent most of his interactions with you eden)

most people do. comes with the territory

Unfortunately I am getting mentioned way more than you so step up. (I haven't done my own posts number yet so you might catch up after I do that)

[Bonatogether]

@sabi how does your spreadsheet work? i'm having trouble reading it

Vertical axis: players post

Horizontal: each time a player was mentioned, referenced, quoted, or replied to

so like, space G13 is how many times ghug talked about celaph?

[President Eden]

-a bloody good wall post-

great analysis on Maniac.

Boat moving up in the rankings.

[BesharamSabi]

who do you expect to know the answer to this, and why do you expect them to know it?

I was hoping for group think but I guess it's not worth it. Basing off their mutual interaction numbers (5) it doesn't seem significant either way (bozo has low interaction numbers in general) (ghug spent most of his interactions with you eden)

It's true love

Ghug x Edan is a better love story than Chaqa x Eden tbf

[BesharamSabi]

@sabi how does your spreadsheet work? i'm having trouble reading it

Vertical axis: players post

Horizontal: each time a player was mentioned, referenced, quoted, or replied to

so like, space G13 is how many times ghug talked about celaph?

How many posts ghug has talked about/to celaph, yes.

[President Eden]

I was hoping for group think but I guess it’s not worth it. Basing off their mutual interaction numbers (5) it doesn’t seem significant either way (bozo has low interaction numbers in general) (ghug spent most of his interactions with you eden)

most people do. comes with the territory

Unfortunately I am getting mentioned way more than you so step up. (I haven’t done my own posts number yet so you might catch up after I do that)

I don’t actually give a shit, just pointing it out.

you’ve probably already been asked in some way, but column B4 is the number of times Bona quote-replied to a message of yours, yea? or is it the number of times Bona refers to you anywhere in his ISO on the bot?

[BesharamSabi]

who do you expect to know the answer to this, and why do you expect them to know it?

I was hoping for group think but I guess it's not worth it. Basing off their mutual interaction numbers (5) it doesn't seem significant either way (bozo has low interaction numbers in general) (ghug spent most of his interactions with you eden)

I disagree. I think it could be worth it. There won't be any magic numbers that guarantee someone is scum or town and trying to do that with spreadsheet wizardry is a fool's errand, but that doesn't mean that spreadsheets can't be valuable. After seeing the results you generate, if we see outliers of interaction beyond what's expected based on activity, a qualititative analysis of the actual posts themselves could likely yield positive results.

tl;dr worth doing because it could act as a very nice pointer that could catch things the human eye might miss, but isn't an all-in-one solution itself.

The only thing it helps me figure out is who is talking about who (and avoiding talking about who).

A good reference guide to compare to when people do reads and vca I guess.

[BesharamSabi]

most people do. comes with the territory

Unfortunately I am getting mentioned way more than you so step up. (I haven’t done my own posts number yet so you might catch up after I do that)

I don’t actually give a shit, just pointing it out.

you’ve probably already been asked in some way, but column B4 is the number of times Bona quote-replied to a message of yours, yea? or is it the number of times Bona refers to you anywhere in his ISO on the bot?

How many of bona posts I was referenced/replied/quoted in.

[President Eden]

if you tell me exactly how you’re computing the numbers, I’d actually be open to helping out, if that’s something you’d want.

if you’d rather just do it yourself that’s ok too

[President Eden]

Unfortunately I am getting mentioned way more than you so step up. (I haven’t done my own posts number yet so you might catch up after I do that)

I don’t actually give a shit, just pointing it out.

you’ve probably already been asked in some way, but column B4 is the number of times Bona quote-replied to a message of yours, yea? or is it the number of times Bona refers to you anywhere in his ISO on the bot?

How many of bona posts I was referenced/replied/quoted in.

I see. bit of a ctrl+f test in a sense. that’s a reasonable way to do it I think.

[BesharamSabi]

Unfortunately I am getting mentioned way more than you so step up. (I haven’t done my own posts number yet so you might catch up after I do that)

I don’t actually give a shit, just pointing it out.

you’ve probably already been asked in some way, but column B4 is the number of times Bona quote-replied to a message of yours, yea? or is it the number of times Bona refers to you anywhere in his ISO on the bot?

How many of bona posts I was referenced/replied/quoted in.

Sorry that's B5**

[TheFlyingBoat]

I was hoping for group think but I guess it's not worth it. Basing off their mutual interaction numbers (5) it doesn't seem significant either way (bozo has low interaction numbers in general) (ghug spent most of his interactions with you eden)

I disagree. I think it could be worth it. There won't be any magic numbers that guarantee someone is scum or town and trying to do that with spreadsheet wizardry is a fool's errand, but that doesn't mean that spreadsheets can't be valuable. After seeing the results you generate, if we see outliers of interaction beyond what's expected based on activity, a qualititative analysis of the actual posts themselves could likely yield positive results.

tl;dr worth doing because it could act as a very nice pointer that could catch things the human eye might miss, but isn't an all-in-one solution itself.

The only thing it helps me figure out is who is talking about who (and avoiding talking about who).

A good reference guide to compare to when people do reads and vca I guess.

Exactly. Who is talking about whom is valuable information (as is as you mention who is avoiding whom). And correct, it is good when coupled with actual reads and deep dives and VCA.

[BesharamSabi]

if you tell me exactly how you’re computing the numbers, I’d actually be open to helping out, if that’s something you’d want.

if you’d rather just do it yourself that’s ok too

I'm reading each post/page of post, seeing who they are replying to if it's not quoted. Seeing the subject matter they are talking about (which player if they aren't naming it). And obviously counting names and quotes.

[snowy801]

I was hoping for group think but I guess it's not worth it. Basing off their mutual interaction numbers (5) it doesn't seem significant either way (bozo has low interaction numbers in general) (ghug spent most of his interactions with you eden)

I disagree. I think it could be worth it. There won't be any magic numbers that guarantee someone is scum or town and trying to do that with spreadsheet wizardry is a fool's errand, but that doesn't mean that spreadsheets can't be valuable. After seeing the results you generate, if we see outliers of interaction beyond what's expected based on activity, a qualititative analysis of the actual posts themselves could likely yield positive results.

tl;dr worth doing because it could act as a very nice pointer that could catch things the human eye might miss, but isn't an all-in-one solution itself.

The only thing it helps me figure out is who is talking about who (and avoiding talking about who).

A good reference guide to compare to when people do reads and vca I guess.

run some numbers on how hard tfb is avoiding talking about me

[BesharamSabi]

Anyway this is why I wanted to wait till after day 1 to get my self situated into the game.

Is my spreadsheet so far making sense or not? How else can I improve this?

I was going to do day by day and overall game tracking so I can see patterns and what not.