M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[ghug]

I'm worried we're going to miskill Bob. It seems the case on him comes down to three things:
1. Various voting pattern concerns, most notably his D2 vote on TFB.
2. The intense stubbornness in his reads.
3. His tunnel on gold/worcej specifically, and the possible ramifications of having that at KILO.

I think you're close - you're missing the consistent walk-back options he's presented himself and levels of doubt on now known scum while not doing the same for town people he has scummed and that have flipped.

To respond:
1. The TFB vote specifically looks not great, but I think scum doing that to save a teammate is going to work a little harder to justify it. Other bits of the voting look largely good, like the attempt to make Durga's death day competitive (really very little incentive for scum to do this instead of bussing), Durga/celaph's attempt to wagon him D1. The D2 Bob wagon is interesting in that most of its pushers are still alive, which makes analysis of it hard. Durga attempted to flash Jamie D2 with Vecna and Bob as wagons, which I wouldn't expect scum to do if the 2 and 3 wagons were both scum, and especially wouldn't expect if Jamie were scum too.

I don't think Bob has the ability to 'work harder' as any alignment. He just isn't a leader/voice type player, he's a lot more of a follower. You see that in the amount of uncertainty in his style, however this uncertainty is almost non-existent in Bona, HR, or goldie/me, all 3 of which are town.

You mention Durga and celaph trying to wagon him D1, and I'd argue Durga really didn't try at all and celaph poked more at others reads than build a strong case. Also, reminder, that scum teams have bussed a member on D1 a lot and most notably was when Demon was hard-bussed D1 by his entire team.

Also, Durga was trying damn hard to save celaph and I'd wager she did so because celaph is a better player than Bob. Just my opinion.

2. Stubbornness and tunneling are a townie flaw. We see some scum, like bozo, tunnel to avoid giving wider views of the game, but this works because it's a mimicry of town play, and it's not what Bob is doing here.

I disagree here because if you look at his reads of known scum, they've all had escape routes, such as other options to vote or uncertainty in opinions on the scum player. He's been using them to defend his actions in the past instead of adapting as information comes available.

Also, the point you make about bozo makes absolute sense to apply to Bob - why are you blatantly ignoring that?

3. gold and worcej are both players that can seem scummy when people aren't used to them, so it's not hard to imagine this tunnel specifically coming from a town perspective. I also really dislike the desire since of you have expressed to pick the most beneficial miskill. We did this yesterday, and we're just worse off for it. We clearly don't have wide consensus on who the remaining scum are, and killing someone because they might be worse at KILO is a bad use of our final kill, before considering that Donny's lurking or several people's inconsistent EoD availability are much bigger liabilities than the guy who's actually here and trying to solve, which brings me to

The comment about my style is very true and it'll probably never change.

Otherwise, I am not picking the 'most beneficial miskill' here, I do think Bob is likely scum based on VCA and his reads. However if he flips town, I have a few observations that I can bring forward for the next phase's analysis and can eliminate a couple of players from my scum pool.

I don't understand the logic you're implying here with Donny - he is an issue for lurking but Maniac's death made us worse off? One simple look at the bot highlights this terrible logic - Donny is averaging 10 posts/phase while Maniac could barely pull off 5/phase. You're not making much sense here and this isn't like you to say something as dumb as this.

4. Bob's really towny! He showed a lot of towny emotion last night after a frustrating miskill. He's clearly putting effort into trying to make sense of the game. He's been quick to speak his mind all game in ways that don't seem cunning or calculated.

Towny emotion is super easy to fake, especially when it's just because we are not doing what he wants us to do - we learn how to be upset about this as toddlers.

Bob hasn't put effort in since 1/27 (effort meaning detailed analysis on actions) and has just continued to apply those same reads to the same people. He has stated he goes into reading someone with a pre-determined viewpoint. He has stated he'd give the game to a scum!ghug before the game is even at KiLo.

Bob, for your part, I think you need to consider that worcej might be town if we want to win this game. I was with you on gold, but I've tended to want to miskill him before, and both his departure and worcej's behavior so far (even though I don't like a lot of it) have pushed me to a townread.

Again, always weird you don't like a lot of my play yet town me. You usually push back on me more than you have been and I'm a little miffed by the lack of it honestly...

Not going to be elegant with picking out the quotes on my phone, so sorry if this is hard to follow.

* When I say "work harder", I mean in justifying, not in pushing. He hasn't been short of reasons for his reads, even if you don't like them. I don't think a scum going directly against their stated preferences to a save a teammate does it without putting a lot of thought into their excuse. His TFB vote reads to me as a townie making a new decision off the cuff.
* It's weird to call uncertainty scummy. Scum know everything. Town don't. He also hasn't been terribly uncertain, as you've pointed out elsewhere. I don't see why he'd be certain in some scumreads and not do any bussing of his very caught teammates.
* It also feels like you're tagging him for miskills of his preferred targets, when really his preferred target the last several days has been you.
* I explained exactly why the point I made about bozo doesn't apply to Bob. He's not using to to avoid giving thoughts on the rest of the game.
* It's fine if you scumread him (well not fine, I'm putting this effort in for a reason, but strategically sound). I just don't want anyone using vague ideas of benefit to the town if he's a townie as a secondary reason, which you are doing. Who can you eliminate as scum if Bob flips town?
* What's this about pre-determined reads? That one post about expecting to scumread gold was saying that he already scumread him before the reread, which is a good acknowledgement to make when you're rereading someone.
* Turning this game into a shouting match between you, me, and Jamie wouldn't be good for any of us, so I'm trying to engage purely on the issues.

[ghug]

As a matter of reference, I have made more effort in the past 2 phases than Maniac made the whole game.

Let that sink in a little bit for the group who thought Maniac's loss hurt the town.

Or we could have killed Donny, who wasn't obvtown, and has posted all of once since we didn't kill him.

[worcej]

Before I dissect that post ghug, I always find it weird that you don't like my posts and opinions yet town me for it.

You spend more time trying not to be objectionable when you're scum.

Not intentionally, but noted for future reference.

[worcej]

As a matter of reference, I have made more effort in the past 2 phases than Maniac made the whole game.

Let that sink in a little bit for the group who thought Maniac's loss hurt the town.

Or we could have killed Donny, who wasn't obvtown, and has posted all of once since we didn't kill him.

Maniac didn't seem Obv!town to me FWIW.

[worcej]

Not going to be elegant with picking out the quotes on my phone, so sorry if this is hard to follow.

* When I say "work harder", I mean in justifying, not in pushing. He hasn't been short of reasons for his reads, even if you don't like them. I don't think a scum going directly against their stated preferences to a save a teammate does it without putting a lot of thought into their excuse. His TFB vote reads to me as a townie making a new decision off the cuff.
* It's weird to call uncertainty scummy. Scum know everything. Town don't. He also hasn't been terribly uncertain, as you've pointed out elsewhere. I don't see why he'd be certain in some scumreads and not do any bussing of his very caught teammates.
* It also feels like you're tagging him for miskills of his preferred targets, when really his preferred target the last several days has been you.
* I explained exactly why the point I made about bozo doesn't apply to Bob. He's not using to to avoid giving thoughts on the rest of the game.
* It's fine if you scumread him (well not fine, I'm putting this effort in for a reason, but strategically sound). I just don't want anyone using vague ideas of benefit to the town if he's a townie as a secondary reason, which you are doing. Who can you eliminate as scum if Bob flips town?
* What's this about pre-determined reads? That one post about expecting to scumread gold was saying that he already scumread him before the reread, which is a good acknowledgement to make when you're rereading someone.
* Turning this game into a shouting match between you, me, and Jamie wouldn't be good for any of us, so I'm trying to engage purely on the issues.

I'll respond to each point via list fashion.

1. A low-experience scum player could easily make this move and hope it doesn't get noticed later. In the context of the phase the move was made, Celaph's death was the first real blow to the scum team and then everything else went to shit for scum from then on, so Bob's vote wasn't inherently dangerous when it was made and is an easily subtle move to protect celaph, which low-experienced scum players will do (protect a teammate) before bussing a teammate.
2. It isn't that it's uncertainty by itself, because it's inherently towny to be uncertain. In Bob's case, it's about where it is and isn't. That's the weird thing to me - it's inconsistent.
3. I am pointing out that Bob has been scratching names off his 1/27 list and that things are not adapting. That doesn't make any sense as town to just be stuck like this for so long. If he was an uncertain towny, he should be re-evaluating his reads and questioning them instead of charging forward like he's the executioner at the gallows.
4. I disagree here mostly because I see him doing it to avoid having to make new content/reads as the game has changed.
5. I have no desire to tip my hand too heavily this early, but if Bob flips town I feel much more passionate on a scum pairing that'll be interesting to see if said pairing makes it to D9.
6. This exchange is what I mean by pre-determined reads:

   Bob, for someone who draws the (somewhat correct, I suppose..) conclusion that Chaqa would be semi-clear if I flip scum, how are you not understanding my statement of "DL was the scum team sniping for PRs"?
   
   Giving you the benefit of the doubt that you may have never been scum before, NK discussions roughly break down into 3 reasons 1) Someone is so obviously town (hard or soft clear) that they need to go. DL obviously did not fit this 2) This person might be a PR, but even if they're not they're a super scary town player, so let's kill them. Very typical N1 behavior, and you often see people like HR getting killed this way. And xorxes. DL is not one to inspire fear 3) Genuine belief someone is a PR.
   
   Why did you expect to come out of it scumreading me though? That sounds like you went into the re-read looking for evidence to back up a scumread that would be believable. Honestly with that last paragraph, the whole post reeks something terrible.
   
   ##Vote Bob. Still willing to switch to my other votes, but holy shit how has nobody else caught that? For emphasis again.
   

   
   I expected to come out of this scumreading goldie

   I'm more surprised you didn't catch that I said the exact same thing in my post on celaph. I do, in fact, already have an impression on someone from what I recall from the game before I go to iso them. I had an impression of you being scummy, therefore expecting to scumread you after isoing you. I'm just being transparent about my thought process. Same for celaph, which you have mysteriously/conveniently overlooked.
   
   In fact, I scumread you more because of this. Also have you never heard of "look who's not on our scumteam kills?" Or doc avoidance kills? Maybe the scumteam didn't want to hit kgray/blamp/jamie because that's almost certainly who the doc would target. Or because they're scum.
   
   Anybody wanna flash goldie with me?

   Bob calls it transparency, but I call it self-biasing. If you go into a read with a pre-determined thought as you iso, you're going to find those items and disregard the facts that don't support it.
7. Yeah, you're right - but no one else seems to be engaging yet so there isn't much to derail lol...

[Jamiet99uk]

Well this thread went quiet while I was doing other things.

I would criticise Donny for not posting, but apparently that's not scummy.

This exchange between Worcej and Ghug looks like the most interesting thing to happen lately. I shall read it now.

While I do that, just a thought:

Is it possible that Damo has been buddying me this whole game?

[Jamiet99uk]

Also Ghug I specifically discussed your potential motivations, and Bob's. The very thing you accuse me of not doing, I did.

Why are you like this?

Barely. You seem to have factored very little in other than when votes were made, and drawing basically no conclusions. There is absolutely no talk or actual motivations.

I am not inside your head. I am not a psychologist. I do not know what your motivations "actually" were, for certain. I can only comment on what I observe. I certainly did provide some conclusions, thank you very much, Bobbo.

One thing I observed was Ghug chainsawing me, in your defence, before he had even finished reading my post (by his own admission).

[Jamiet99uk]

The way Jamie is playing this game is to be fair very consistent with the way he played as town in M66. That is to say, hard-tunnelling on every town member that did something he didn't like. He does have a mysteriously higher hitrate on actual scum, although that could be chalked up to them being extremely obvious.

You said on D1 that my case on Foxcastle was quite good.
It also turned out to be right.

[Jamiet99uk]

Damo, why is worcej suddenly in your scumpool after you hard defended him for the past three days and showed no sign of ever considering him to maybe be scum?

He isn't.

I assume you are referring to my post # 6240 with my scum to town list. Worcej is at the bottom i.e. least scum/most town. I should have written TOWN underneath for clarity I suppose.

Who does a reads list and puts the town at the bottom?

Weirdo.

[Jamiet99uk]

Also rdr is town. I don't have anything specific in mind as I say this but he's been towny, his voting's been pretty good, and he said he was 100% confirmed vanilla town TM.

You attacked me for looking at votes as a means of possibly scumreading people, and yet you're willing to declare Rdrivera town on the basis of "being towny" (whatever that means in your head) and because of his votes.

Hmm.

[Jamiet99uk]

Observations and queries based on the votes:

Bob McBob
<snip some things I said about Bob>

Ghug
<snip some things I said about Ghug>

##vote Bob

99.9% odds my vote isn't moving - same issue as Maniac, Bob's a liability in that he won't put the effort to analyze the game and will just give it to a scum!ghug apparently.

Worcej, I'm glad you agree with what I'm saying about Bob but I'm also curious as to why you don't go on to discuss Ghug.

Is it possible to you that scum!Bob is laying the ground for refusing to vote for scum!Ghug if he survives this phase?

[Jamiet99uk]

Also Ghug I specifically discussed your potential motivations, and Bob's. The very thing you accuse me of not doing, I did.

Why are you like this?

This is like asking 'Is water wet?'

Why is water wet?

[Jamiet99uk]

The way Jamie is playing this game is to be fair very consistent with the way he played as town in M66. That is to say, hard-tunnelling on every town member that did something he didn't like. He does have a mysteriously higher hitrate on actual scum, although that could be chalked up to them being extremely obvious.

Yeah, I really want to build the image up of Jamie having the scum game of his life, but the stupid tunnel on me reminded me of how town!Jamie can tunnel people for the most minute shit.

I haven't been tunnelling you particularly at any point in the game.

You and Bob are both using the word "tunnel" to mean "made a couple of posts about me that I disagree with" and it's becoming quite annoying.

[Jamiet99uk]

As a matter of reference, I have made more effort in the past 2 phases than Maniac made the whole game.

Let that sink in a little bit for the group who thought Maniac's loss hurt the town.

This is true regardless of Worcej's alignment.

Low effort play hurts town. Always.

[worcej]

Observations and queries based on the votes:

Bob McBob
<snip some things I said about Bob>

Ghug
<snip some things I said about Ghug>

##vote Bob

99.9% odds my vote isn't moving - same issue as Maniac, Bob's a liability in that he won't put the effort to analyze the game and will just give it to a scum!ghug apparently.

Worcej, I'm glad you agree with what I'm saying about Bob but I'm also curious as to why you don't go on to discuss Ghug.

Is it possible to you that scum!Bob is laying the ground for refusing to vote for scum!Ghug if he survives this phase?

I didn’t because I got into a discussion with ghug on his post and positions regarding Bob.

I am home now and will have to wait to get back on PC after my kids are down tonight.

[worcej]

The way Jamie is playing this game is to be fair very consistent with the way he played as town in M66. That is to say, hard-tunnelling on every town member that did something he didn't like. He does have a mysteriously higher hitrate on actual scum, although that could be chalked up to them being extremely obvious.

Yeah, I really want to build the image up of Jamie having the scum game of his life, but the stupid tunnel on me reminded me of how town!Jamie can tunnel people for the most minute shit.

I haven't been tunnelling you particularly at any point in the game.

You and Bob are both using the word "tunnel" to mean "made a couple of posts about me that I disagree with" and it's becoming quite annoying.

I use tunneling rather extensively to reflect someone deep diving down a stupid hole. In your case, it was the dumb issue with me not knowing explicitly what the scan result would be.

[Jamiet99uk]

Yeah, I really want to build the image up of Jamie having the scum game of his life, but the stupid tunnel on me reminded me of how town!Jamie can tunnel people for the most minute shit.

I haven't been tunnelling you particularly at any point in the game.

You and Bob are both using the word "tunnel" to mean "made a couple of posts about me that I disagree with" and it's becoming quite annoying.

I use tunneling rather extensively to reflect someone deep diving down a stupid hole. In your case, it was the dumb issue with me not knowing explicitly what the scan result would be.

Ok that's not really how that term is generally used in Mafia, but you do your own thing if you want to.

[BobMcBob]

I think damo is stuck in a tunnel on me and has done nothing else for days, we should vote him out because it would be a disaster if he was still alive tomorrow.

If there are two scum in ghug, me and worcej, I think we've lost.

Pot, meet Kettle.

Worcej, meet unable to pick sarcasm from a mile out.

[BobMcBob]

I honestly can't be bothered arguing against someone who has a proud history of stubbornly miskilling people even when they're obviously town, someone who will flip people even if they think they're town for "value", and someone who locks themselves into idiotic conclusions so hard that they have already said at least three confirmed town "must be scum" already this game. Especially when I have already thoroughly explained basically every part of the case against me, often twice.

If either Donny or rdr are scum, we might as well have already lost today's vote.

Ghug, rdr and Donny, if you're all town and don't think I'm scum, we need to vote together today in order to not get another miskill. The other option of course being convincing one of three most stubborn players in the game to change their vote, which they have no intention of doing.

I'm happy to vote for whoever we can manage to collect 4 votes onto, even if that somehow turns out to be Donny.

[BobMcBob]

But some quick explainers for other things I haven't actually explained yet. When I said that thing about ghug, I didn't mean I would actively throw the game to ghug if he was obviously scum, but that I heavily townread him and if he is scum he probably will win just because he's played well. I highly doubt there are any reasonable scenarios where ghug actually gets daykilled and is scum, hence my statement.

Also me scumreading worcej should only be a problem for town in the endgame if you believe worcej is town, and also think scum will mysteriously join me on a worcej push tomorrow and that I won't find that at all suspicious. Which is unlikely.

Also I see worcej saying I am a low experience scum player. I am not. I have rolled scum in roughly half my games, have been appraised as a convincing scum player, and my mechanical ineptitude mostly only extends to night-action targets. Painting me as a weak scum player to explain away the fact that my vote on TFB would be pretty near idiotic as scum is very convenient and also not at all accurate.

I've hedged reads far worse than I have in this game as both town and scum. I have done exactly the same reads "progression" I've done on goldcej in my town game in Champs, and I would find it difficult to call that replicating my town meta as scum when nobody on the site was in the other game (or cared about it). This is absolutely not consisstent with my scumgame.

Also why the heck does worcej have a scumpairing he's very passionate about that he is currently not voting inside of?

Just like his ancestor goldfinger, worcej entirely ignores the fact that I say a similar thing about "expecting to scumread" in my celpah iso. Also if I scumread someone I do in fact scumread them. I don't not scumread them. If they have done things that are scummy and not things that are towny, then I will naturally scumread them. I am not however immune to changing my mind based on what I see in an iso. And also worcej is coming at that entire point from the assumption that I'm town, which is not a good reason to vote me...