M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[worcej]

Observations and queries based on the votes:

Bob McBob
1. Was D1 Town v Town v Town or is Bob scum?

2. Bob was on the counterwagon to Celaph D2 along with Durga and Celaph. Trying to save Celaph?

3. Bob joined the Durga wagon D3 very late on, when it was already a foregone conclusion (having been on HR).

4. Bob was the last person on Vecna D4, again after the wagon was guaranteed to flip.

5. Bob voted the main wagons D5 and D6 but plonked his vote on Worjec yesterday as a one-voter wagon.

Conclusion: Bob's voting on the days we actually flipped scum looks slightly suspect and he's the only one of the three competing D1 wagons we don't know the alignment of. Big question is whether Durga would bus him in that scenario.

My thoughts to each point.

1. Looking at known scum votes, Durga moved to Bob when DL brought it up and Bob wasn't really a counter-wagon to Flum. She also continued to harp on Flum playing badly.
   
   Celaph moved to Bob with 00:11 left and also didn't make him the lead wagon (it became 6 Flum, 4 Bob). There is a lot more content from Celaph asking why people towned Bob, but it took a long time for the vote to show up imho. Interesting note: celaph liked Jamie's assessment that Foxcastle (later Vecna) was scum, so there is live history of celaph shading his teammates.
   
   Foxna didn't place a vote when he was an animal, and then the lich version slammed his vote on Chaqa and eventually ghug, neither of which had a snowballs chance of happening.
2. I hit at this already, but this is absolutely possible. He had an established scum lean on celaph and then says this:

   The other thing I've done so far today is iso tfb's day 2 and look somewhat into the case on him, and it's okayish. I would rather vote celaph though. I don't think TFB has been particularly scummy, although he has certainly been strange. And I like the celaph wagon.

   To only end up doing this:

   ##vote TFB because I want to

   With no honest explanation of thought at the time. This move was also pretty critical too: it made TFB the lead @ 6 with himself and celaph at 5.
   
   Why wouldn't he make the move to celaph? He had all the groundwork to do it and actually stated he wanted to 30 minutes before that.
3. I don't take much from this - he was late to the party. One thing is I think his analysis of Durga was kinda meh:

   I would say that durga has absolutely not been very proactive this game. Very few ideas, pushes or scumreads anywhere. I don't think I know what durga normally plays like, but I doubt this is it. It's primarily filler arguments and jokes and next to nothing else. Plus bad voting yesterday, especially when she pointed out the problems with celaph and completely ignored them. So I could definitely see a scum being here, but most of the confidence of my scumread here comes from the fact that other people think she looks awful. But I'd say a solid candidate for scum.

   And the reason I think it's meh is the underlined portions - lot of noise to sound like he is doing an analysis, but placing enough doubt to walk from it. By this time, Bob has had more established scum opinions on town players that I feel this was a soft-bus to say he did something.
4. This phase was a weak phase from Bob. Of note, another non-opinion on a scum player, this time with it being this:

   Okay I'm realising now this is going to be utter rubbish.
   
   [snip a bunch of meh reads]
   
   Vecna - first vote on celaph D2 but not around for EoD so can't be given too much credit for it.
   
   Chaqa, kgray and ghug all voted. Kgray has the worst votes of the three, but they're all pretty well off my scumdar for now and none of their votes are too bad.
   
   I don't even know what conclusions I'm supposed to draw from this. I ignored D3 for obvious reasons. On top of kgray/ghug/chaqa, I doubt tfb or demon or jamie are scum. Rdr looks pretty good too. Vecna, damo and Maniac all suffer from EoD sickness and therefore have very little for or against them. HR almost looks really bad. Goldie is very fine. Bona is... something else.
   
   I expect scum lies in those last six, although I'm really not saying anything new here, am I? Except now I've done it myself and damo's not twisting it on me! Good night folks.

   Underlined amore planting of a flags to back off any opinion he's voiced.
5. And finally, him voting for Bona and HR was kinda planted in the above quote - it fit his analysis (which he said was bad) and allows him to come back and say "Hey look, I have reads and justification!"

All in all - Bob has been picking off people he scummed back on January 27th (11 real life days ago btw) and not adapting his opinions at all as new information becomes present. It's alarming to see this level of stubbornness if he's town.

Then, let's add this little gem into the mix:

Okay if ghug is scum I think we lose and I'm okay with that, he played well. I'm confident rdr is town, and Donny seems pretty good. Jamie is not my first choice but is a candidate for scum. Damo is pretty bad. TFB and goldfinger are my best guesses for scum, and I have reasons for that. You can find them if I die.

I expect either ghug or me to die tonight, unless scum hit rdr for being towny.

This is so when the game isn't even at Milo or Kilo - why would you say the underlined thing now? I'd be okay with it if it was at KiLo because then it make sense, but at this state in the game you're just telegraphing that you're a viable path to victory for scum because you're a stick in the mud and won't analyze the game.

##vote Bob

99.9% odds my vote isn't moving - same issue as Maniac, Bob's a liability in that he won't put the effort to analyze the game and will just give it to a scum!ghug apparently.

[worcej]

Like, I am just going to say it in another way: rdr is usually fear killed way earlier than this when he is town. Him being alive right now is enough to make me scum him.

Ditto ghug

The only time I got fearkilled recently was when I overplayed my hand as PR.

Ghug's comment here is factual. Of note, it sucks the QT's are gone and I cannot easily go back and look at info ones...

Rough ghug history below:
M71: Scum, died N2 due to other scum faction kill.
M1020: Scum, alive and wins.
M1019: Town, dies N2 (what he referenced btw)
M70: Town, alive with large group on D6
M1018: Town, died N5 before KiLo
M69: Town, Died via Vig on D3
M1017: Won as 3rd party with scum (my bad minigame)
M68: Town, Lost at KiLo (because of my scum play my ego has no bounds)
M67: Scum, died D3 (scum still won)
M65: Scum, won it at KiLo (Scum MVP btw)
M64: Town, wins due to the bazar interaction of roles on N6
M63: Scum, died D2
M62: Town, died N9

[worcej]

Man, analyzing the past 15 games, ghug you sure have gotten scum a lot lol…

Yeah I'm pretty fucking happy I rolled town this game.

Over the top and unnecessary statement

[worcej]

Observations and queries based on the votes:

Bob McBob
1. Was D1 Town v Town v Town or is Bob scum?

2. Bob was on the counterwagon to Celaph D2 along with Durga and Celaph. Trying to save Celaph?

3. Bob joined the Durga wagon D3 very late on, when it was already a foregone conclusion (having been on HR).

4. Bob was the last person on Vecna D4, again after the wagon was guaranteed to flip.

5. Bob voted the main wagons D5 and D6 but plonked his vote on Worjec yesterday as a one-voter wagon.

Conclusion: Bob's voting on the days we actually flipped scum looks slightly suspect and he's the only one of the three competing D1 wagons we don't know the alignment of. Big question is whether Durga would bus him in that scenario.

Ghug
1. Joined my Flum wagon very late D1 having been on Bob.

2. Was on Celaph relatively early EoD2 and had been there earlier in the day as well. Repeatedly pushed the Celaph wagon and was heavily involved in flipping Celaph there.

3. Last person to move to Durga D3.

4. Was a late Vecna voter D4 and was VERY reluctant to vote Vecna, who he didn't appear to scumread.

5. D5 voted Rdrivera, D6 voted HR, yesterday voted Donny.

Conclusions: First, if Bob is scum I think scum!Ghug would keep bussing Bob for future towncred. If Bob is town this means nothing in particular. Second, D2 stands out. Ghug would have to have been bussing Celaph VERY hard D2 - on balance I think Ghug's D2 voting looks townie. His reluctance to vote Vecna is noticeable. Ghug could be scum here but on the basis of D2 I'm willing to townlean him.

I'll review other people later but for now:
##Vote BobMcBob

I'm a third of the way through this post and it's fucking awful. You're not considering who voted for the person, only who they voted for. You're also not considering motivations or doing anything beyond looking at the bot.

Perhaps, and maybe I might be out of line here, but when you look into the details yourself (at least for Bob, I haven't done you yet), it becomes useful.

[worcej]

Also Ghug I specifically discussed your potential motivations, and Bob's. The very thing you accuse me of not doing, I did.

Why are you like this?

This is like asking 'Is water wet?'

[worcej]

TFB kill a bit unexpected, I was expecting rdr.

I'm going to ISO everyone because I'm kind of lost now but at the moment my scum to town is as follows (without much confidence)

Scum

Bob
Ghug/rdr
Jamie/Donny
Worcej

Worcej's observation that if we miskill and both him and Bob survive we have a potential disaster on our hands.

##vote Bob

Also I don't really get Bob's anger.

This may change on reread ofc.

The Worcej logic is that it's a disaster if both Worcej and Bob are town at kilo. So, if you think Bob is scum then this is irrelevant.

I don't think Bob's anger is fake and I think you are just trying to get a fake justification for your vote. Also, you are someone I see killing TFB (I know this is wifom, but can't avoid it).

##vote Damo

First part is true.

Second part isn't true - As I mentioned in a prior post, Damo is known for being a human calculator and he's faced with an apparent reality in that town!Bob will vote my slot with impunity and damo has me pegged as town. Even if he only has a soft-scum read of Bob, the liability of town!Bob is enough to remove him from Kilo so that the game can actually be analyzed and (potentially) salvaged versus just throwing it.

This line of logic fits town!damo and there is plenty of proof in prior games of this.

[worcej]

Except everytime I look at day 2 I can't help but assume Doony Jamie and rdr must all be town.

Perhaps it is GF worcej and goon Bob and the Bob tunnel is one big facade.

I keep coming back to Bob being the best flip today.

Can you explain the D2 analysis leading to Donny, Jamie, and rdr as must be town?

[worcej]

The way Jamie is playing this game is to be fair very consistent with the way he played as town in M66. That is to say, hard-tunnelling on every town member that did something he didn't like. He does have a mysteriously higher hitrate on actual scum, although that could be chalked up to them being extremely obvious.

Yeah, I really want to build the image up of Jamie having the scum game of his life, but the stupid tunnel on me reminded me of how town!Jamie can tunnel people for the most minute shit.

[worcej]

I think damo is stuck in a tunnel on me and has done nothing else for days, we should vote him out because it would be a disaster if he was still alive tomorrow.

If there are two scum in ghug, me and worcej, I think we've lost.

Pot, meet Kettle.

[worcej]

Ghug is the only person who's felt remotely like he's actually trying to solve the game recently. Jamie has death tunnelled on silly wagons, and damo has made overly strong assumptions that have no grounding in reality, but neither of those have actually felt like they're trying to make sense of the game. Ghug has felt a lot better and more natural in his approach to solving, even if he's inexplicably been relatively unenthused on the town wagons we've been running up.

You know, something interesting caught my eye in reading up on ghug. I'd like you to read this:

[snip...]
There was also an interesting discussion about cases in the God thread. I think my best skill in this game is convincing people to do things (which is why I can miskill a bunch of people even when I don't appear particularly townie). I largely agree with snowy that writing cases is a net negative even for the person making the case. They're an effective convincing tactic, but they lead to the best talkers' reads dictating the kills, which isn't good for anyone. The flip side is that sometimes if your convincing skill is weak, you just need to bloviate a little. I think snowy, for example, would be served by contriving some points to support his generally decent (but again not impeccable) reads.

Now go back and look at his recent phases. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

[worcej]

I guess I should give you context: this was in post-game after ghug won as scum.

[ghug]

If the scumpair are not 2 of {Bob, ghug, worcej} I think we've lost.

Well, these are my townreads at this point...

[ghug]

Also Ghug I specifically discussed your potential motivations, and Bob's. The very thing you accuse me of not doing, I did.

Why are you like this?

Consider the time.

Are you suggesting that Ghug was drunk and/or high on a cocktail of illicit narcotics when he attacked me for daring to suggest his voting pattern made him likely town?

I was not intoxicated, but I was tired and grumpy. I apologize for coming on so strong, though I maintain that the post was not to my liking, irrespective of your conclusion on me.

[ghug]

Ghug is the only person who's felt remotely like he's actually trying to solve the game recently. Jamie has death tunnelled on silly wagons, and damo has made overly strong assumptions that have no grounding in reality, but neither of those have actually felt like they're trying to make sense of the game. Ghug has felt a lot better and more natural in his approach to solving, even if he's inexplicably been relatively unenthused on the town wagons we've been running up.

You know, something interesting caught my eye in reading up on ghug. I'd like you to read this:

[snip...]
There was also an interesting discussion about cases in the God thread. I think my best skill in this game is convincing people to do things (which is why I can miskill a bunch of people even when I don't appear particularly townie). I largely agree with snowy that writing cases is a net negative even for the person making the case. They're an effective convincing tactic, but they lead to the best talkers' reads dictating the kills, which isn't good for anyone. The flip side is that sometimes if your convincing skill is weak, you just need to bloviate a little. I think snowy, for example, would be served by contriving some points to support his generally decent (but again not impeccable) reads.

Now go back and look at his recent phases. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

Are you implying I've been making miskills happen?

[ghug]

I'm worried we're going to miskill Bob. It seems the case on him comes down to three things:
1. Various voting pattern concerns, most notably his D2 vote on TFB.
2. The intense stubbornness in his reads.
3. His tunnel on gold/worcej specifically, and the possible ramifications of having that at KILO.

To respond:
1. The TFB vote specifically looks not great, but I think scum doing that to save a teammate is going to work a little harder to justify it. Other bits of the voting look largely good, like the attempt to make Durga's death day competitive (really very little incentive for scum to do this instead of bussing), Durga/celaph's attempt to wagon him D1. The D2 Bob wagon is interesting in that most of its pushers are still alive, which makes analysis of it hard. Durga attempted to flash Jamie D2 with Vecna and Bob as wagons, which I wouldn't expect scum to do if the 2 and 3 wagons were both scum, and especially wouldn't expect if Jamie were scum too.
2. Stubbornness and tunneling are a townie flaw. We see some scum, like bozo, tunnel to avoid giving wider views of the game, but this works because it's a mimicry of town play, and it's not what Bob is doing here.
3. gold and worcej are both players that can seem scummy when people aren't used to them, so it's not hard to imagine this tunnel specifically coming from a town perspective. I also really dislike the desire since of you have expressed to pick the most beneficial miskill. We did this yesterday, and we're just worse off for it. We clearly don't have wide consensus on who the remaining scum are, and killing someone because they might be worse at KILO is a bad use of our final kill, before considering that Donny's lurking or several people's inconsistent EoD availability are much bigger liabilities than the guy who's actually here and trying to solve, which brings me to
4. Bob's really towny! He showed a lot of towny emotion last night after a frustrating miskill. He's clearly putting effort into trying to make sense of the game. He's been quick to speak his mind all game in ways that don't seem cunning or calculated.

Bob, for your part, I think you need to consider that worcej might be town if we want to win this game. I was with you on gold, but I've tended to want to miskill him before, and both his departure and worcej's behavior so far (even though I don't like a lot of it) have pushed me to a townread.

[worcej]

Before I dissect that post ghug, I always find it weird that you don't like my posts and opinions yet town me for it.

[worcej]

I'm worried we're going to miskill Bob. It seems the case on him comes down to three things:
1. Various voting pattern concerns, most notably his D2 vote on TFB.
2. The intense stubbornness in his reads.
3. His tunnel on gold/worcej specifically, and the possible ramifications of having that at KILO.

I think you're close - you're missing the consistent walk-back options he's presented himself and levels of doubt on now known scum while not doing the same for town people he has scummed and that have flipped.

To respond:
1. The TFB vote specifically looks not great, but I think scum doing that to save a teammate is going to work a little harder to justify it. Other bits of the voting look largely good, like the attempt to make Durga's death day competitive (really very little incentive for scum to do this instead of bussing), Durga/celaph's attempt to wagon him D1. The D2 Bob wagon is interesting in that most of its pushers are still alive, which makes analysis of it hard. Durga attempted to flash Jamie D2 with Vecna and Bob as wagons, which I wouldn't expect scum to do if the 2 and 3 wagons were both scum, and especially wouldn't expect if Jamie were scum too.

I don't think Bob has the ability to 'work harder' as any alignment. He just isn't a leader/voice type player, he's a lot more of a follower. You see that in the amount of uncertainty in his style, however this uncertainty is almost non-existent in Bona, HR, or goldie/me, all 3 of which are town.

You mention Durga and celaph trying to wagon him D1, and I'd argue Durga really didn't try at all and celaph poked more at others reads than build a strong case. Also, reminder, that scum teams have bussed a member on D1 a lot and most notably was when Demon was hard-bussed D1 by his entire team.

Also, Durga was trying damn hard to save celaph and I'd wager she did so because celaph is a better player than Bob. Just my opinion.

2. Stubbornness and tunneling are a townie flaw. We see some scum, like bozo, tunnel to avoid giving wider views of the game, but this works because it's a mimicry of town play, and it's not what Bob is doing here.

I disagree here because if you look at his reads of known scum, they've all had escape routes, such as other options to vote or uncertainty in opinions on the scum player. He's been using them to defend his actions in the past instead of adapting as information comes available.

Also, the point you make about bozo makes absolute sense to apply to Bob - why are you blatantly ignoring that?

3. gold and worcej are both players that can seem scummy when people aren't used to them, so it's not hard to imagine this tunnel specifically coming from a town perspective. I also really dislike the desire since of you have expressed to pick the most beneficial miskill. We did this yesterday, and we're just worse off for it. We clearly don't have wide consensus on who the remaining scum are, and killing someone because they might be worse at KILO is a bad use of our final kill, before considering that Donny's lurking or several people's inconsistent EoD availability are much bigger liabilities than the guy who's actually here and trying to solve, which brings me to

The comment about my style is very true and it'll probably never change.

Otherwise, I am not picking the 'most beneficial miskill' here, I do think Bob is likely scum based on VCA and his reads. However if he flips town, I have a few observations that I can bring forward for the next phase's analysis and can eliminate a couple of players from my scum pool.

I don't understand the logic you're implying here with Donny - he is an issue for lurking but Maniac's death made us worse off? One simple look at the bot highlights this terrible logic - Donny is averaging 10 posts/phase while Maniac could barely pull off 5/phase. You're not making much sense here and this isn't like you to say something as dumb as this.

4. Bob's really towny! He showed a lot of towny emotion last night after a frustrating miskill. He's clearly putting effort into trying to make sense of the game. He's been quick to speak his mind all game in ways that don't seem cunning or calculated.

Towny emotion is super easy to fake, especially when it's just because we are not doing what he wants us to do - we learn how to be upset about this as toddlers.

Bob hasn't put effort in since 1/27 (effort meaning detailed analysis on actions) and has just continued to apply those same reads to the same people. He has stated he goes into reading someone with a pre-determined viewpoint. He has stated he'd give the game to a scum!ghug before the game is even at KiLo.

Bob, for your part, I think you need to consider that worcej might be town if we want to win this game. I was with you on gold, but I've tended to want to miskill him before, and both his departure and worcej's behavior so far (even though I don't like a lot of it) have pushed me to a townread.

Again, always weird you don't like a lot of my play yet town me. You usually push back on me more than you have been and I'm a little miffed by the lack of it honestly...

[worcej]

Ghug is the only person who's felt remotely like he's actually trying to solve the game recently. Jamie has death tunnelled on silly wagons, and damo has made overly strong assumptions that have no grounding in reality, but neither of those have actually felt like they're trying to make sense of the game. Ghug has felt a lot better and more natural in his approach to solving, even if he's inexplicably been relatively unenthused on the town wagons we've been running up.

You know, something interesting caught my eye in reading up on ghug. I'd like you to read this:

[snip...]
There was also an interesting discussion about cases in the God thread. I think my best skill in this game is convincing people to do things (which is why I can miskill a bunch of people even when I don't appear particularly townie). I largely agree with snowy that writing cases is a net negative even for the person making the case. They're an effective convincing tactic, but they lead to the best talkers' reads dictating the kills, which isn't good for anyone. The flip side is that sometimes if your convincing skill is weak, you just need to bloviate a little. I think snowy, for example, would be served by contriving some points to support his generally decent (but again not impeccable) reads.

Now go back and look at his recent phases. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

Are you implying I've been making miskills happen?

I'll wait for others to digest this for themselves.

[worcej]

As a matter of reference, I have made more effort in the past 2 phases than Maniac made the whole game.

Let that sink in a little bit for the group who thought Maniac's loss hurt the town.

[ghug]

Before I dissect that post ghug, I always find it weird that you don't like my posts and opinions yet town me for it.

You spend more time trying not to be objectionable when you're scum.