M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[goldfinger0303]

Maniac, I stuck my vote where you had yours yesterday, only for you to jump off once I declared I'd be offline until EOD, and go onto a dead wagon. Why?

[goldfinger0303]

And for what it's worth, ##Vote HR

I don't know where kgray is coming from thinking ghug is scum. It's something to reflect upon more as the days go on, but right now its not enough to overcome my gut.

[goldfinger0303]

And for what it's worth, I don't think Bob is the play today, TFB. Day 1 Durga and celaph go and form Bob as a counterwagon to Flum, jumping off....do scum really do that D1? It's one thing to bus a wagon that's already ongoing, but its another to basically form one from scratch.

[goldfinger0303]

Ah, jesus fucking christ I thought today was EOD, and I'd be online for once.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Okay time to make fun of TFB/overexplain my voting patterns.

I think my day 1 vote reasoning was pretty darn obvious. I very much townread flum, and I didn't like the reasoning for the rdr wagon. TFB had been scummier than either of them so I tried joining the flashwagon in the hopes that we might actually flip scum.

Day 2 was admittedly strange. I preferred the celaph wagon to TFB for quite a long time, but I was never particularly convinced that he was scum, as stated in my earlier post most of my scumreading him came from other reads on him that I trusted. But TFB kept digging himself into a hole and making himself look worse and more petty, and I was swayed somewhat by kgray and blamp's noise. Then TFB voted celaph and for some reason that just didn't sit right with me and put me off the wagon. I can't remember exactly why, it was probably more vibes and mindset at the time, and not so much logical reasoning, but when I said TFB's vote made me not want to vote celaph, that's basically what happened. I tried to move to celaph at EoD for tie prevention after seeing how the votes moved, but got in too late.

Day 3 I was pretty convinced Durga was scum but I also very much scumread HR so I didn't have any problem with voting him. My main reason for staying there was to try and make the day slightly less of a stale, infoless runaway wagon scenario than it was looking to be, which obviously failed miserably and we lost a ton of momentum anyway. I moved to Durga because my vote didn't matter at that point and I just felt like being there.

Day 4 I scumread goldie heavily, far more so than Vecna, but I moved to Vecna for consolidation to make sure there was no tie after seeing how the votes were falling.

Also I got the impression that the "strong contingent" of people refusing to vote me was literally just Bona who had no other ideas in the game and also blamp. If there was anyone else, they weren't really speaking out about it to my memory. Also "rock solid 5" is heavily misinterpreting how voting works.

Sure, that is the given justification, but it doesn't grapple with the bigger issue of scum implicitly trying to avoid heavy groupings on wagons and trying to create safe distributions across he major wagons. All three other people on my wagon are conf town. It's possible the wagon is all town, but what are the odds of that?

Interesting argument for D2, but I suppose I can't argue too much with bad vibes, especially when you admit it looks weird.

Fair enough on D3 that's actually reasonably townie.

D4, what changed your mind then? I swear I remember on an earlier day you were really confident Vecna was scum (I want to say D3?) and certainly more confident than you were on HR iirc

[TheFlyingBoat]

And for what it's worth, I don't think Bob is the play today, TFB. Day 1 Durga and celaph go and form Bob as a counterwagon to Flum, jumping off....do scum really do that D1? It's one thing to bus a wagon that's already ongoing, but its another to basically form one from scratch.

Literally already pre-empted that argument of if you look through my posts today. When they did it there was massive pressure on Flum with pretty much every voter on the wagon being convinced of his guilt and a decent vote distance between them when you count the implied votes in them at the time from Bona and Blamp. Durga did it with 15 mins to spare and did the lightest shading possible. Celaph didn't even push our shade. Neither seemed interested in actually making Bob a real counterwagon to Flum

[goldfinger0303]

And for what it's worth, I don't think Bob is the play today, TFB. Day 1 Durga and celaph go and form Bob as a counterwagon to Flum, jumping off....do scum really do that D1? It's one thing to bus a wagon that's already ongoing, but its another to basically form one from scratch.

Literally already pre-empted that argument of if you look through my posts today. When they did it there was massive pressure on Flum with pretty much every voter on the wagon being convinced of his guilt and a decent vote distance between them when you count the implied votes in them at the time from Bona and Blamp. Durga did it with 15 mins to spare and did the lightest shading possible. Celaph didn't even push our shade. Neither seemed interested in actually making Bob a real counterwagon to Flum

I see what you're saying, but I don't quite buy it. Yes, there was only 15 to go and a lot of people set on Flum. But we saw town!bona, town!blamp, and town!Demon flee off the Flum wagon in the last minutes. We also have town!kgray flip onto Bob. Had those three flipped to Bob instead of TFB, Bob dies.

[goldfinger0303]

Has Bob exactly been an asset to town? No, not really. And his focus has been on me, and done so even more sloppily than HR, so I should be more than happy to throw my vote on him behind yours. But I scumread HR for it and not Bob because HR should know better.

[ghug]

Your opinion, as I recall it, is generally in favour of roleblocking the NK target, is that right?

I assume I am wrong.

Personally my strategy is usually to Roleblock someone like Brainbomb or Ghug so that when they claim the Roleblock everyone thinks "hmmm, that's fishy, who would want to roleblock that guy?"

Like Chaqa, say?

[ghug]

I assume I am wrong.

Personally my strategy is usually to Roleblock someone like Brainbomb or Ghug so that when they claim the Roleblock everyone thinks "hmmm, that's fishy, who would want to roleblock that guy?"

I'm pretty sure my disdain for roleblocking the kill target when there are multiple PRs alive is almost a meme by now, and it definitely came up earlier in the game.

I mean, I remembered it, but it's entirely possible it's just me and bozo.

[TheFlyingBoat]

And for what it's worth, I don't think Bob is the play today, TFB. Day 1 Durga and celaph go and form Bob as a counterwagon to Flum, jumping off....do scum really do that D1? It's one thing to bus a wagon that's already ongoing, but its another to basically form one from scratch.

Literally already pre-empted that argument of if you look through my posts today. When they did it there was massive pressure on Flum with pretty much every voter on the wagon being convinced of his guilt and a decent vote distance between them when you count the implied votes in them at the time from Bona and Blamp. Durga did it with 15 mins to spare and did the lightest shading possible. Celaph didn't even push our shade. Neither seemed interested in actually making Bob a real counterwagon to Flum

I see what you're saying, but I don't quite buy it. Yes, there was only 15 to go and a lot of people set on Flum. But we saw town!bona, town!blamp, and town!Demon flee off the Flum wagon in the last minutes. We also have town!kgray flip onto Bob. Had those three flipped to Bob instead of TFB, Bob dies.

Yes but two of those people said they would do anything to save Bob. They were never going to flip to Bob. That's why Bob was such a safe vote

[ghug]

@ghug this is your requested reminder to read my post

I'd like another in a few hours please.

[Chaqa]

@ghug this is your requested reminder to read my post

I'd like another in a few hours please.

Read his post

[Chaqa]

I don’t think we should kill HR today

[ghug]

If we assume a 3-2 split on me and celaph aka a 1-1 split of the remaining scum on the two major wagons, then BobMcBob and HR look like very interesting potential targets. Now a lot of us seemed to view HR more favorably in D5 given the way that most of the day was set up to be HR vs Vecna.

If HR is the godfather that seems like a very dangerous play by Vecna given how close HR was to being the DK. Though then again we get into very WIFOMy territory and the argument could be made at least one of them would have higher odds of making it if you have that level of scum theater, but I just don't see it as more likely than the alternative.

If HR is the goon, perhaps it is a good play to give him some potential town credit and just pretend the entire time he was just lazy town but is back and ready to contribute. I still don't view it as likely as Goldie was such an easy out and there was no need necessarily for Vecna to bus when there was an easy miskill in Gold and he was around at EOD unlike the vote on celaph where he basically planted it and afked, presumably assuming celaph wouldn't die that day. Perhaps Goldie and HR could both be town and Vecna just botched his stay alive plan?

If we assume HR is town, then we look at Bob. If we assume that scum tried to spread out across the major wagons D1, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect one scum on each of three major wagons (no guarantee of course, but still). Bob's wagon has two scum on it and I doubt a third is on there. There's going to be one somewhere on Flum. And then there would be one on me. Three of my four voters are already confirmed town. Bob is the only one remaining. But I don't know, I felt like I also like Bob's D2 and D3 posting a lot, because at least as far as I remember he was shading celaph, durga, and Vecna at various points.

What drives me crazy though is for celaph despite saying he preferred celaph to me and us both being the two main wagons, he voted me over celaph, he stated durga was his number one scum read, but voted for HR until the Durga wagon was basically guaranteed, and despite saying he preferred Vecna over goldie iirc, he also kept on goldie until the end at which point he switched over to Vecna once it was clear who would live and die. So perhaps that could be explained by his scum play involving him shading his team mates for credit, voting them at EoD once the end result is fait accompli so he looks good on these little summary tracker things, but otherwise not actually seeking their deaths?

##vote bob

Why are you assuming HR vs. Vecna was what the mafia wanted? It's much more plausible HR and Vecna are scum together if you look at it as the two of them making the best of the situation town handed them rather than concocting it themselves.

[TheFlyingBoat]

If we assume a 3-2 split on me and celaph aka a 1-1 split of the remaining scum on the two major wagons, then BobMcBob and HR look like very interesting potential targets. Now a lot of us seemed to view HR more favorably in D5 given the way that most of the day was set up to be HR vs Vecna.

If HR is the godfather that seems like a very dangerous play by Vecna given how close HR was to being the DK. Though then again we get into very WIFOMy territory and the argument could be made at least one of them would have higher odds of making it if you have that level of scum theater, but I just don't see it as more likely than the alternative.

If HR is the goon, perhaps it is a good play to give him some potential town credit and just pretend the entire time he was just lazy town but is back and ready to contribute. I still don't view it as likely as Goldie was such an easy out and there was no need necessarily for Vecna to bus when there was an easy miskill in Gold and he was around at EOD unlike the vote on celaph where he basically planted it and afked, presumably assuming celaph wouldn't die that day. Perhaps Goldie and HR could both be town and Vecna just botched his stay alive plan?

If we assume HR is town, then we look at Bob. If we assume that scum tried to spread out across the major wagons D1, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect one scum on each of three major wagons (no guarantee of course, but still). Bob's wagon has two scum on it and I doubt a third is on there. There's going to be one somewhere on Flum. And then there would be one on me. Three of my four voters are already confirmed town. Bob is the only one remaining. But I don't know, I felt like I also like Bob's D2 and D3 posting a lot, because at least as far as I remember he was shading celaph, durga, and Vecna at various points.

What drives me crazy though is for celaph despite saying he preferred celaph to me and us both being the two main wagons, he voted me over celaph, he stated durga was his number one scum read, but voted for HR until the Durga wagon was basically guaranteed, and despite saying he preferred Vecna over goldie iirc, he also kept on goldie until the end at which point he switched over to Vecna once it was clear who would live and die. So perhaps that could be explained by his scum play involving him shading his team mates for credit, voting them at EoD once the end result is fait accompli so he looks good on these little summary tracker things, but otherwise not actually seeking their deaths?

##vote bob

Why are you assuming HR vs. Vecna was what the mafia wanted? It's much more plausible HR and Vecna are scum together if you look at it as the two of them making the best of the situation town handed them rather than concocting it themselves.

I assumed the RB would accept death and try to set up the godfather to live but perhaps you're right.

[damo666]

I don’t think we should kill HR today

Hmmm

[BobMcBob]

Sure, that is the given justification, but it doesn't grapple with the bigger issue of scum implicitly trying to avoid heavy groupings on wagons and trying to create safe distributions across he major wagons. All three other people on my wagon are conf town. It's possible the wagon is all town, but what are the odds of that?

Luckily for you, I can actually tell you that. It's roughly 100%. I know the feeling of trying to convince everyone that there's a scum on your wagon because town couldn't possibly be that stupid or they were surely pushing for a miskill or whatever. I'm pretty sure my hitrate on that is below 50%.

Interesting argument for D2, but I suppose I can't argue too much with bad vibes, especially when you admit it looks weird.

Fair enough on D3 that's actually reasonably townie.

D4, what changed your mind then? I swear I remember on an earlier day you were really confident Vecna was scum (I want to say D3?) and certainly more confident than you were on HR iirc

What do you mean what changed my mind? HR was not someone I considered D4, and Vecna continued to be a lump of nothing that wasn't getting any scummier. Goldfinger on the other hand just kept getting worse, so that was where I focussed my attention.

[damo666]

TFB's case on Bob is quite persuasive.

@TFB if Bob is goon (don't think scum would risk that strategy on a PR) who is GF?

[Jamiet99uk]

Yes but the problem with you yourself using this as a point in your defence is that it is very wifom-y.

I wasn't the first one to use it, I don't think. This debate happened on Day 2 and Night 2, or somewhere thereabouts.

Why aren't you reading the thread?

You are the one who is seeking to rely on it now.

I can read perfectly well, thank you.