M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Maniac]

“I did not have sexual relations with that woman” Bill Clinton

What’s interesting about this lie is that Bill avoids using the contraction ‘didn’t’ and also that he refers to Monica Lewinsky as ‘that woman’. Both of these are signs of lying. As with all verbal tells they aren’t 100% accurate of course but could be interesting none the less. The explanation of why people avoid contractions is because liars want to seem honest and precise. They think ‘did not’ sounds more convincing that ‘didn’t’.

So does this tell apply to mafia? I don’t know. Some people always avoid contractions and others may not have English as a first language. To really dig deep we’d have to establish what every player’s speech/typing pattern is when they’re town and then see if there is a change when they’re scum.

But just for my amusement I’ve been reading some D2 posts and picking out a few avoided contractions. Here are some examples…

HR
Bozotheclown - His not knowing what was going on at EoD in relation to Flum was not what I'd immediately associate with Bozo

Kgray
it literally does not matter, why are you asking her this now

Bonatogether
will not be posting until maybe tomorrow, maybe in like 30 minutes if im feeling bore

Goldfinger
There is a logic to wanting to roleblock your kill, even if you personally do not personally agree with it.

Bozo
I checked and there were other games since M64 you both played where you did not claim a roleblock and potentially could have

Bozo
Throwing in M56 does not change that fact you mentioned the 2 recent games where ghug did claim a roleblock.

Bozo
I did not agree with kgray's case and don't see why ghug found it "very compelling
Bozo

Being generally insulting to other players would look less like a scum ploy if you did not keep pointing out that it is something scum would not d

Bozo
Donny was the lead wagon when Vecna made this post. I find it suspicious how Vecna subtly defended Donny if he had not read anything yet


Damo
Bozo's find on Bob strengthens the case against him. I do not foresee changing my vote so #$en

Bob
M56, which you are conveniently ignoring that I also listed, did not have ghug in i
Bob

If I missed a game we were both in it was entirely due to the fact that my check was not particularly thorough

Jamie
I was not strongly scumreading either Durga or Kgray

Jamie
Can you explain what you did not like about it

So the things I found interesting was Bozos avoidance of contractions, sometimes avoiding them twice in one sentence. Kgray’s avoidance coupled with avoiding g a name also piqued my interest as does Damo’s comment about not being likely to change his vote.

So scum team is Bozo, Bob, Damo, Jamie and Kgray

You’re all welcome

[goldfinger0303]

Ghug, I agree with most of your big long post, but I guess I'm still not seeing what everyone else is seeing with Vecna. Moreover you are somewhat arbitrary in saying "This person is doing nothing - that's scummy" and "This person is doing nothing - that's null" (damo v Vecna for example).

But you make good points regarding rdrivera disappearing today, a shocking difference in Jamiet from D1,and TFB's contributions being pretty shit. I honestly hadn't consciously picked up on rdrivera until you pointed it out. However I'm still townreading rdrivera right now overall. He did say he's 100% vanilla town (and for those accusing me of PR hunting, I was literally copying word-for-word what rdrivera said back when Flum did his town tell)

But let's get a wagon going for ghuggles that he'd like more than the existing ones (although ghug you do realize your top scum read is a legit wagon right now?)

##vote HR

[BusinessLamp]

game over

[ghug]

Enjoy to +1 gogogo

ghuglkarma=6969

[ghug]

he posted “seems legit” after the roleblock claim.

What do you think of his explanation of that comment?

oh where he's saying it's a joke that you've been roleblocked multiple times in the past. huh. i guess that's plausible enough. i hadn't put 2 and 2 together that those comments were related. idk i've been all over the place.

because my issue with the comment and why it stuck out to me so much was that i was seeing it as just a confirmation of your post, when there was no reason to doubt your post. Like, the only reason to say "seems legit" in a serious manner would be if you knew that a counterclaim was going to be coming. when a townsmember would have no idea that a counterclaim would be coming, they would just accept that you were roleblocked as fact and not comment. but the explanation provided is like, reasonable enough. that would be a hard lie to craft on the spot, if the post was what i initially intended. i'll drop it

That was my initial reaction as well, but ultimately I've come around to believing him. My opinion isn't universal, so I'd form your own rather than just dropping it, but I imagine the survivor leaves you good at the determining motive/honesty bits.

I hear we're both the type that goes too hard and ends up as the very last person voted out.

[ghug]

Ghug, I agree with most of your big long post, but I guess I'm still not seeing what everyone else is seeing with Vecna. Moreover you are somewhat arbitrary in saying "This person is doing nothing - that's scummy" and "This person is doing nothing - that's null" (damo v Vecna for example).

But you make good points regarding rdrivera disappearing today, a shocking difference in Jamiet from D1,and TFB's contributions being pretty shit. I honestly hadn't consciously picked up on rdrivera until you pointed it out. However I'm still townreading rdrivera right now overall. He did say he's 100% vanilla town (and for those accusing me of PR hunting, I was literally copying word-for-word what rdrivera said back when Flum did his town tell)

But let's get a wagon going for ghuggles that he'd like more than the existing ones (although ghug you do realize your top scum read is a legit wagon right now?)

##vote HR

The difference between damo and Vecna is largely that I don't think Vecna will be useful. They're both null.

I know celaph is a wagon, that's why I'm voting for him. Are you trying to draw me off of him?

[ghug]

En fuck it ##VOTE HR

Y'all two stay on celaph though.

[BusinessLamp]

##vote celaph

truly zero original thought going into this. sorry celaph

[Jamiet99uk]

What I was saying is theres no way im actually reading all 120 pages.

Also, PLEASE PLAY MAFIA THE WAY I WANT YOU TO, BOYO

Very effective

I mean if you read the thread you'd know I've been scum reading your slot for about 100 pages now lol. You've done nothing to change that read.

What was the argument why fox was a good wagon anyway?

Maybe you could read my posts.

That would be one way of finding out why people scumread Foxcastle.

[Jamiet99uk]

So the things I found interesting was Bozos avoidance of contractions, sometimes avoiding them twice in one sentence. Kgray’s avoidance coupled with avoiding g a name also piqued my interest as does Damo’s comment about not being likely to change his vote.

So scum team is Bozo, Bob, Damo, Jamie and Kgray

You’re all welcome

Surely it should be "were Bozo's lack of..." ?

In a long bloviating waste-of-space post about grammar you might at least get your own grammar right.

Your post is utter nonce sense which, as usual, demonstrates that you're an arsehole who thinks he's clever.

[damo666]

The NK probably implies one of my supposed towncore is scum.

@ghug silly reaction test

Chaqa no longer scum suspect

@Demo you just want to look at total wordcount as a metric

@Jamie from what pov and at what stage?

Basically 1 - ((PlayerCount-Bcount)C5/PlayercountC5)

I hate this post.

Damo, how can it be a silly reaction test if you now no longer suspect Chaqa of being scum? Would you have felt the same way if Chaqa claimed and nobody counter-claimed?

Also while I understand the interaction between Chaqa and ghug can be convincing, we cannot rule out that scum RB'd DeathLlama. There's only two PRs, and if they thought DL was one, it's a 50/50 chance its Doc. If I was scum I'd be roleblocking my kill every night. Why is nobody else even mentioning this possibility?

Reposting for damo.

Both fair points. I would give the benefit of the doubt to a single claimant.

[damo666]

Also what in the KENTUCKY FRIED FUCKERY is this read??

An accurate one imo

he's not anywhere near towncore lmao

He is in MY towncore. That is a group of people I will not vote for barring a scan or cc or something major like that.

[damo666]

I like the part where damo disappeared after I quoted two dead townies wanting him looked into.

That was fuckin neat.

I'mma get some sleep. If someone could come up with a reason they think I deserve votes other than:

- Bad math (of which damo is guilty)
- poor participation (Of which nearly game the damn game is doing)
- being annoying (of which...ok I am annoying but killing me for that is some bb level shit)

At 0240 my time? I do sleep.

[TheFlyingBoat]

“I did not have sexual relations with that woman” Bill Clinton

What’s interesting about this lie is that Bill avoids using the contraction ‘didn’t’ and also that he refers to Monica Lewinsky as ‘that woman’. Both of these are signs of lying. As with all verbal tells they aren’t 100% accurate of course but could be interesting none the less. The explanation of why people avoid contractions is because liars want to seem honest and precise. They think ‘did not’ sounds more convincing that ‘didn’t’.

So does this tell apply to mafia? I don’t know. Some people always avoid contractions and others may not have English as a first language. To really dig deep we’d have to establish what every player’s speech/typing pattern is when they’re town and then see if there is a change when they’re scum.

But just for my amusement I’ve been reading some D2 posts and picking out a few avoided contractions. Here are some examples…

HR
Bozotheclown - His not knowing what was going on at EoD in relation to Flum was not what I'd immediately associate with Bozo

Kgray
it literally does not matter, why are you asking her this now

Bonatogether
will not be posting until maybe tomorrow, maybe in like 30 minutes if im feeling bore

Goldfinger
There is a logic to wanting to roleblock your kill, even if you personally do not personally agree with it.

Bozo
I checked and there were other games since M64 you both played where you did not claim a roleblock and potentially could have

Bozo
Throwing in M56 does not change that fact you mentioned the 2 recent games where ghug did claim a roleblock.

Bozo
I did not agree with kgray's case and don't see why ghug found it "very compelling
Bozo

Being generally insulting to other players would look less like a scum ploy if you did not keep pointing out that it is something scum would not d

Bozo
Donny was the lead wagon when Vecna made this post. I find it suspicious how Vecna subtly defended Donny if he had not read anything yet


Damo
Bozo's find on Bob strengthens the case against him. I do not foresee changing my vote so #$en

Bob
M56, which you are conveniently ignoring that I also listed, did not have ghug in i
Bob

If I missed a game we were both in it was entirely due to the fact that my check was not particularly thorough

Jamie
I was not strongly scumreading either Durga or Kgray

Jamie
Can you explain what you did not like about it

So the things I found interesting was Bozos avoidance of contractions, sometimes avoiding them twice in one sentence. Kgray’s avoidance coupled with avoiding g a name also piqued my interest as does Damo’s comment about not being likely to change his vote.

So scum team is Bozo, Bob, Damo, Jamie and Kgray

You’re all welcome

This may be the most galaxy brained shit ever. The best part is if the guy gets two people right (33.3% chance (Math:((5C2)*(13C3))/(18C5))) or somehow 3 (9.10% chance Math:((5C3)*(13C2))/(18C5)) he'll be gloating forever. I love it. Is Maniac normally like this?

[damo666]

Maniac's missing apostrophe

Maniacs missing an apostrophe

Maniacs apostrophe is missing

@Bozo can you please go check previous games and let us know if your use of contractions differs between town games and scum games.

[damo666]

TFB omits 'at least'.

[damo666]

@TFB it is not atypical of Maniac.

Maniac and demonRHK in competition for 'maddest theory' prize.

[damo666]

Jamie's in a good mood.

[TheFlyingBoat]

I feel like I've been slacking off today, and I don't really like the wagons, so I'm gonna take stock of my thoughts. 90% of this is for me, so read at your own peril.

People I don't want to kill today because I townread them (this is ordered, TFB):
Lamp
Bob
Chaqa
bozo
Donny
Maniac
kgray
RHK
Boat

People I don't want to kill today because they're null reads and more likely to be valuable to town than scum:
Durga
Damo

Other people (scummier at the bottom):
gold
Vecna
Bona
Jamie
Rd
HR
Celaph


Honestly this is better than I thought it'd be. The scum pool is all pretty clustered, and Durga should probably be sitting next to gold there too, but I don't want to do that to either of them. The town pool is comfortably large. Some relevant thoughts on individuals:

RHK - Like gold, and I guess maybe also Bob in this game, he tends to say things that are just kinda icky and make us want to scumread him, so that needs to be considered. His vote for boat at EoD was also really bad, but I can't see him doing the stupid data thing as town, and his reaction to the roleblock nonsense was nice. I think killing him today is a mistake.

Bob - Again, probably harming his own case by being abrasive, but the guy is willing to talk a lot, and I think the explanation of his reaction to my roleblock claim is a little too intricate for him to have faked it. I've come around a lot to the townread.

Vecna - Fox wasn't playing great, so I get not townreading the slot, and Vecna seems likely to be useless, so I get not wanting to give him time, but how is this really anyone's best scumread at this point? It's a big fat load of nothing (with a beautiful, balding, burgundy head).

Damo - I feel like I usually have a stronger read. I disliked him early, and he remains kinda useless, but in a way that doesn't really strike me as scummy

Jamie, Rd - Dudes have sucked today, though I guess we all have. Jamie feels like he's coasting on being widely townread and rd feels like he's retreated after pressure to let us all attack each other instead.

HR - I've agreed with enough of his posts today that I'm slightly less inclined to kill him, not he's good enough (at this pointless game we play on the internet, don't let your ego get ahead of you) that I'm not gonna let that affect my read too much.

Boat - Has gotten a lot worse and nearly leapfrogged Damo in Durga in my list above. Needs to shape up.

With RHK I presume you meant you can't seem him doing the weird data thing as scum?

I do like the Bob re-eval even though I don't hold the same confidence in it as you do.

With Foxna, I think you understate the issues with Foxcastle's case and I get the feeling you are trying to kill the wagon while also still maintaining cover in case he does flip scum. Don't like this

According to you, Damo is pretty easy to read eventually (justification proffered to keep him alive both when you were scum and town iirc even when he looks bad). When do you think Damo will out himself to you? What makes him just seem bad town instead of scum?

Jamie, rd. Sure

HR ??? What was the basis under which you wanted to kill him in the first place? Maybe I missed it when I was following along, but I don't recall much other than you finding it weird he was on at EoD?

Me - yeah, I've sucked today. Should be better over the weekend when I have more time.


Anyways, questions regarding the ordering (since I do appreciate you ordering it), what makes you have Jamie below Vecna? I get being peeved by the perceived coasting, but that seems like a precipitous drop without the commensurate scummy behavior I would expect to justify it.

Next, why is Lamp so high in your list? I get the townread, he's done a lot of townie things and behaved far more experienced than you'd expect for someone that says they're brand new to forum mafia. I may be misremembering this but I think you mentioned you didn't like the Bona switch onto me at the end of they day as opposed to switching onto an actual counter wagon. Why do you not apply this same standard to lamp?

[TheFlyingBoat]

TFB omits 'at least'.

Did I do so incorrectly? I thought for a set of N objects where the objects are either in set m(afia) or set not m(afia), you are pulling n distinct items from the set of N objects, and that in the set of n pulled items there are k items that belong to the set m, the probability of pulling EXACTLY k items out of the n items you pulled from set N is P(X = k) = ((mCk)*((N-m)C(n-k)))/(NCn). Now I am very rusty at combinatorics, admittedly, so I could be wrong, but I think I am right and I definitely meant to omit at least.