MAFIA 71: "PAPERS PLEASE" - GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[bozotheclown]

Durga pushed Meme hard on D1. I wonder if that was just lucky or if she correctly scumread him? She also ended up pushing Macca briefly, but without much reason.

Interesting interactions with Macca if you search their name in Durga's iso. She does a complete 180 on townreading Macca to scumreading them.

That's actually quite scummy. I could see Macca noticing that and wanting to nightkill her for that.
It could also be she forgot her read on teammate Macca but I think that's less likely.

Flum voted Macca with no explanation 8 hours prior to this very near the start of day 2.

This could be a sign that Durga and Flum concluded that Macca was team Ezik and wanted to try to flip them. That doesn't mean they were right, but Durga is pretty good at this...

I think that's a good enough reason to put Macca closer to the front of the line.

And suggests Macca not K hence my argument the last K slot is either Bozo or Sabi.

Foxcastle cleared Macca of being the K mafia.

[bozotheclown]

Possible Kolechian Teams (everyone except Macca, me, lifschl, TFB):

Bes Dur Flu
Boz Dur Flu
Bra Dur Flu
Dam Dur Flu

Possible Ezik Teams (everyone except me, lfischl, TFB):

Mac Cap Ghu
Bes Cap Ghu
Boz Cap Ghu
Bra Cap Ghu
Dam Cap Ghu

Brain can't be K

Why not? (I'm sorry, I think this has been clarified before, and I'm just not tracking the game very well...)

brainbomb claimed the RB N2.

[Foxcastle]

Brain can't be K

Why not? (I'm sorry, I think this has been clarified before, and I'm just not tracking the game very well...)

brainbomb claimed the RB N2.

We don't think that's a possible ploy?

[damo666]

Durga pushed Meme hard on D1. I wonder if that was just lucky or if she correctly scumread him? She also ended up pushing Macca briefly, but without much reason.



Flum voted Macca with no explanation 8 hours prior to this very near the start of day 2.

This could be a sign that Durga and Flum concluded that Macca was team Ezik and wanted to try to flip them. That doesn't mean they were right, but Durga is pretty good at this...

I think that's a good enough reason to put Macca closer to the front of the line.

And suggests Macca not K hence my argument the last K slot is either Bozo or Sabi.

Foxcastle cleared Macca of being the K mafia.

Sorry. The pause!

[BesharamSabi]

Why not? (I'm sorry, I think this has been clarified before, and I'm just not tracking the game very well...)

brainbomb claimed the RB N2.

We don't think that's a possible ploy?

If ezics isn't caught by tomorrow and brainbomb is still alive, what do we do?

[damo666]

Why not? (I'm sorry, I think this has been clarified before, and I'm just not tracking the game very well...)

brainbomb claimed the RB N2.

We don't think that's a possible ploy?

As Ezic possibly. But not as K.

[bozotheclown]

Why not? (I'm sorry, I think this has been clarified before, and I'm just not tracking the game very well...)

brainbomb claimed the RB N2.

We don't think that's a possible ploy?

I think it is possible he could have claimed it as E if the E mafia RBed and NKed snowy N2, but as K he would be taking the chance that someone else was RBed, and he would also be giving himself away to the E mafia, so I do not think there is any way he could be the last K mafia.

[damo666]

brainbomb claimed the RB N2.

We don't think that's a possible ploy?

If ezics isn't caught by tomorrow and brainbomb is still alive, what do we do?

Depends who is killed and how they flip.

[bozotheclown]

brainbomb claimed the RB N2.

We don't think that's a possible ploy?

If ezics isn't caught by tomorrow and brainbomb is still alive, what do we do?

I think Macca is likely the last E mafia, so for me that would depend on if Macca is still alive D5.

[damo666]

brainbomb claimed the RB N2.

We don't think that's a possible ploy?

I think it is possible he could have claimed it as E if the E mafia RBed and NKed snowy N2, but as K he would be taking the chance that someone else was RBed, and he would also be giving himself away to the E mafia, so I do not think there is any way he could be the last K mafia.

Quite. Much more eloquent than my post!

[TheFlyingBoat]

Does anyone here who has more experience have a recollection of which games Durga was scum? Want to do some analysis there. I really don't think her vote and behavior re: Damo constituted bussing but I'm happy to take the shot at Macca. ##VOTE Macca. Played even worse than Sabi and unlike Sabi didn't have a townslip I don't think they could fake. Plus I called Macca on D2 so it would be fun if that held.

The more recent games I remember where Durga was mafia were M1016, M60, and M1014.

Thank you Bozo. In M60 she did bus summit to the end after switching onto the guy in the middle of the day, while in the other 2 she simply didn't vote for her teammates at all in D1. It does point to the loud Durga never busses D1 voices being not necessarily accurate, but then again summit didn't really even bother putting up much of a defense and I think she was done with him there.

Here is her post history from D1 for those who care: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... user=Durga

Perhaps the 16 hour gap in posting by Damo coupled with a fairly disappointing D1 by him, including a vote for Flum without much explanation, irked her enough to put some pressure on him? Pressure she pulled back on as he posted more actively. He did follow Durga onto Meme pretty much immediately after Durga took the vote off of him as well, which is interesting to note.

Further on Damo's claim that it is absurd that he'd never name both of his teammates in his scum pool, that's just crazy. He did so literally last game:

Conclusion:

The scum team is any 3 or all 4 from {darg, DL, ghug, Squigs}

A team of 4 would imply ghug and Squigs heavily bussing darg (not impossible) so let's assume a team of 3 (more likely anyway for balance purposes).

As per above let's eliminate {darg, ghug, Squigs}

So we are left with

{darg, DL, ghug} [darg and ghug mutually bussing]
{darg, DL, Squigs} [Squigs bussing]
{DL, ghug, Squigs} [No bussing]

So I guess the last of these 3 is now my best guess.

I will ##vote DeathLlama for appearing in all possible teams.

Problems with my analysis:
i) my exclusions may be incorrect implying odd bussing days 1 and/or 2
ii) My assumptions that Jamie and/or Sabi are town are off the mark.

Anyway at the end of the day it's a guessing game, I just wanted to put a bit of logic behind it.

Basically, I'm lost lol.

Now to be clear I am not saying Damo must be scum. I am just saying the possibility exists that he is and that his defense isn't nearly as strong as claimed.

I think Macca is more likely to be scum given how little effort they have put in, that I think there were two inactives on ghug's team that he wanted to protect in the short term from Durga's anti-inactive invective while he went on the hunt for the Kolechians/useful townies, and that Macca's lines that made no sense early that others claimed were town cred just seemed scummy and lazy to me.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Possible Kolechian Teams (everyone except Macca, me, lifschl, TFB):

Bes Dur Flu
Boz Dur Flu
Bra Dur Flu
Dam Dur Flu

Possible Ezik Teams (everyone except me, lfischl, TFB):

Mac Cap Ghu
Bes Cap Ghu
Boz Cap Ghu
Bra Cap Ghu
Dam Cap Ghu

So I look at this and see Boz/Dam as last K and Mac as last E. I can't help but fixate on that. Prolly not good to tunnel like that and I need to pull those blinders off, but I just can't help but see Macca as scum.

[Foxcastle]

Some vote overview of our remaining candidates.

...Damo votes Flum at key time to keep him tied at 3 on D1. Started out voting Ghug, but moved to Cap when Ghug's wagon got big around 8 hours to EOD. I don't think that would count as "bussing then saving" since Damo would know that there would be plenty of time for ghug's wagon to calm down before he needed to get off, but I'm also skeptical that Ezik-Damo would bus Ghug and then even momentarily bus Meme...
...Bozo votes Ghug at key time to keep him tied at 3 on D1. Voted ghug D2 until the very end. Probably not likely to be Ezik, then.
...Brain voted only town on D1. Voted Macca and Flum on D2, among other town.
...Sabi voted only town on D1. Opened on Brain, ended up voting town the rest of D2.
...Macca early on Sabi, ending on Tom on D1. Voted Ghug early on D2, and then Meme bussed Ghug, but right after Lfischl voted Ghug, Macca moved off. Bozo was also voting ghug most of D2 until the last few minutes. I think that says that Macca was possibly Ezik and that Bozo is unlikely to be. More reason to vote for Macca...

Conclusions:
Damo less likely to be either team.
Bozo less likely to be Ezik.
Macca not looking good for evacuating from Ghug wagon at critical time.

With RB, Brain probably not Kolechian.

Therefore:
Possible Kolechian Teams (everyone except Macca, me, lifschl, TFB):

Bes Dur Flu
Boz Dur Flu
Bra Dur Flu (less likely)
Dam Dur Flu (less likely)

Possible Ezik Teams (everyone except me, lfischl, TFB):

Mac Cap Ghu (more likely)
Bes Cap Ghu
Boz Cap Ghu (less likely)
Bra Cap Ghu
Dam Cap Ghu (less likely)

Anyone want to sanity check any of this or tell me where I'm wrong?

[damo666]

@TheFlyingboat

I think I didn't have much option that game but to mention scummates at that stage.

At the stage we were doing predictions this game is was virtually carte blanche so not really comparable.

However, kudos to you for the research.

[damo666]

Possible Kolechian Teams (everyone except Macca, me, lifschl, TFB):

Bes Dur Flu
Boz Dur Flu
Bra Dur Flu
Dam Dur Flu

Possible Ezik Teams (everyone except me, lfischl, TFB):

Mac Cap Ghu
Bes Cap Ghu
Boz Cap Ghu
Bra Cap Ghu
Dam Cap Ghu

So I look at this and see Boz/Dam as last K and Mac as last E. I can't help but fixate on that. Prolly not good to tunnel like that and I need to pull those blinders off, but I just can't help but see Macca as scum.

Why are you ruling out Sabi as either and brain as E?

[TheFlyingBoat]

@TheFlyingboat

I think I didn't have much option that game but to mention scummates at that stage.

At the stage we were doing predictions this game is was virtually carte blanche so not really comparable.

However, kudos to you for the research.

At least from my view as a sideliner watching it, I don't think DL needed to be on there. That dude was DEEEEEP. It did turn out to be the right play because at the time I had you and ghug nailed as scum and that post did convince me even further that DL was town, so it worked, but I don't know if given your dominant position you really had any need to. And like I said it isn't ironclad, and I am inclined to agree with you that the game states were notably different, hence my view that is far from damning and all the couching I did before, but I just don't think it was as forced in that game as you imply it was.

[damo666]

@TheFlyingboat

I think I didn't have much option that game but to mention scummates at that stage.

At the stage we were doing predictions this game is was virtually carte blanche so not really comparable.

However, kudos to you for the research.

At least from my view as a sideliner watching it, I don't think DL needed to be on there. That dude was DEEEEEP. It did turn out to be the right play because at the time I had you and ghug nailed as scum and that post did convince me even further that DL was town, so it worked, but I don't know if given your dominant position you really had any need to. And like I said it isn't ironclad, and I am inclined to agree with you that the game states were notably different, hence my view that is far from damning and all the couching I did before, but I just don't think it was as forced in that game as you imply it was.

I'll accept as good play.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Possible Kolechian Teams (everyone except Macca, me, lifschl, TFB):

Bes Dur Flu
Boz Dur Flu
Bra Dur Flu
Dam Dur Flu

Possible Ezik Teams (everyone except me, lfischl, TFB):

Mac Cap Ghu
Bes Cap Ghu
Boz Cap Ghu
Bra Cap Ghu
Dam Cap Ghu

So I look at this and see Boz/Dam as last K and Mac as last E. I can't help but fixate on that. Prolly not good to tunnel like that and I need to pull those blinders off, but I just can't help but see Macca as scum.

Why are you ruling out Sabi as either and brain as E?

Their interaction with Eden D1 coupled with their prior play here makes me pretty confident they are town. I am not ruling out Brain as E there so much as ruling in Macca.

[damo666]

Some vote overview of our remaining candidates.

...Damo votes Flum at key time to keep him tied at 3 on D1. Started out voting Ghug, but moved to Cap when Ghug's wagon got big around 8 hours to EOD. I don't think that would count as "bussing then saving" since Damo would know that there would be plenty of time for ghug's wagon to calm down before he needed to get off, but I'm also skeptical that Ezik-Damo would bus Ghug and then even momentarily bus Meme...
...Bozo votes Ghug at key time to keep him tied at 3 on D1. Voted ghug D2 until the very end. Probably not likely to be Ezik, then.
...Brain voted only town on D1. Voted Macca and Flum on D2, among other town.
...Sabi voted only town on D1. Opened on Brain, ended up voting town the rest of D2.
...Macca early on Sabi, ending on Tom on D1. Voted Ghug early on D2, and then Meme bussed Ghug, but right after Lfischl voted Ghug, Macca moved off. Bozo was also voting ghug most of D2 until the last few minutes. I think that says that Macca was possibly Ezik and that Bozo is unlikely to be. More reason to vote for Macca...

Conclusions:
Damo less likely to be either team.
Bozo less likely to be Ezik.
Macca not looking good for evacuating from Ghug wagon at critical time.

With RB, Brain probably not Kolechian.

Therefore:
Possible Kolechian Teams (everyone except Macca, me, lifschl, TFB):

Bes Dur Flu
Boz Dur Flu
Bra Dur Flu (less likely)
Dam Dur Flu (less likely)

Possible Ezik Teams (everyone except me, lfischl, TFB):

Mac Cap Ghu (more likely)
Bes Cap Ghu
Boz Cap Ghu (less likely)
Bra Cap Ghu
Dam Cap Ghu (less likely)

Anyone want to sanity check any of this or tell me where I'm wrong?

So you see Sabi is the only player possible on both teams. Also if we flip Sabi and they are town then Bozo is our Kman.

Is this why Bozo reluctant to vote Sabi?

[damo666]

I'll be back about EOD - 55 minutes