MAFIA 71: "PAPERS PLEASE" - GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[TheFlyingBoat]

To answer your questions squiggs,

What info does town gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

Given that last night two kills happened, one on a VT, one on a Bus Driver there a couple possibilities.

A VT was role blocked: To my knowledge they do not get a PM letting them know they were so they wouldn't be able to claim it

An opposing mafia member was role blocked: Can't tell us anything since Durga is dead. We know the Enforcer did not use their power OR was not role blocked given two kills occurred. Maybe Durga was role blocked, which would be good to know, but she can't tell us because she is dead. Maybe Kolechian Goon was blocked, but that's as good as blocking a townie to my understanding.

A Town PR was role blocked: If it was like M70 where I believe the doctor was PMed they were role blocked even if their save was unnecessary, it could out the doctor. If they don't they can't give any info so it's irrelevant. Otherwise we know a cop failed in their investigation, which lends credibility to their claim if it goes unchallenged, but it also forces them to claim very early for no apparent reason. Unless I am missing something I don't see what is gained through this other than a non-Ezic clear that will likely die at the hands of the Ezic team the next day. Maybe it makes a good Doc target, but shit that just doesn't seem worth it.

What info does scum gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

They know that they have a power, whether a scum member or a town PR and are therefore a good target. I don't see why this would be revealed?

The only way I could see it having any value is if VT get messages on a role block in which case there is a far wider pool of potential non-Ezic clears which could be nice.

If you disagree, Squiggs, tell me what I am missing, because I straight up don't get it.

[damo666]

I was wrong. It was 455. It is now 91.

There are however 13*66 different solutions comprising those 91 teams.

A good deal less than the 91*220 there were.

Sorry ghug and Squigs.

Hanging head in shame.

[damo666]

Although ofc if we take fish as a clear we are down to 12*55 solutions of 78 teams.

After tonight it will be a lot more manageable.

[TheFlyingBoat]

TFB while I think your reasoning is okay based on your premise, I think your assumption that the last Kolechian will specifically be targeting the Ezic team is incorrect. All they care about is surviving now, and there are two ways they can die: NK and DK vote. They can increase their probability of surviving during the day guaranteed by killing townread players or townclears, while they have to off three Ezic members before that kill goes away. Yes they need the Ezic team to die, but I don't think they're just gonna kill who we want.

I don't think that's true. They also need to kill Kolechians to stave of the Kolechians being an out right majority. At the end of this night there will be 9 people. Let's assume for the sake of a reasonable worst case scenario first for the Kolechians (other than outright elimination and ignoring the doctor so that we can focus on a simples days to loss calc not predicated on doctor luck) that they miss and two townies die. We would then have 5 town, 1 Kolechian, and 3 Ezic.

The Kolechians need to either get the day vote right or an NK on Ezic or it's game over. With PRs alive a mass role claim may buy time for both town and Kolechia, but if the PRs get NKed by chance and only VTs and maybe one PR are alive for the sake of a pure probability look in this hypothetical, then the Kolechians lose if they fail to hit Ezic in the day and night. The odds of failure obviously go way up if they're not even TRYING to hit Ezic and instead are taking shots at town clears. They need Ezic dying while knowing that Ezic has the incentives to take shots at town clears to increase their likelihood of winning.

I don't know how Kolechia can play it any other way here other than shoot at Ezic, knowing that shooting town clears just accelerates the end. Kolechia wants town clears alive until they have the Ezic down to 1 if not zero in order to increase the odds of hitting Ezic with a day vote or with an NK in order to stave off the far more likely and difficult to avoid loss condition given their current state. Time is already very much not on their side if two townies die tonight.

[TheFlyingBoat]

TFB while I think your reasoning is okay based on your premise, I think your assumption that the last Kolechian will specifically be targeting the Ezic team is incorrect. All they care about is surviving now, and there are two ways they can die: NK and DK vote. They can increase their probability of surviving during the day guaranteed by killing townread players or townclears, while they have to off three Ezic members before that kill goes away. Yes they need the Ezic team to die, but I don't think they're just gonna kill who we want.

I don't think that's true. Kolechia also need to kill Ezicians to stave off the Ezicians being an out right majority. At the end of this night there will be 9 people. Let's assume for the sake of a reasonable worst case scenario first for the Kolechians (other than outright elimination and ignoring the doctor so that we can focus on a simples days to loss calc not predicated on doctor luck) that they miss and two townies die. We would then have 5 town, 1 Kolechian, and 3 Ezic.

The Kolechians need to either get the day vote right or an NK on Ezic or it's game over. With PRs alive a mass role claim may buy time for both town and Kolechia, but if the PRs get NKed by chance and only VTs and maybe one PR are alive for the sake of a pure probability look in this hypothetical, then the Kolechians lose if they fail to hit Ezic in the day and night. The odds of failure obviously go way up if they're not even TRYING to hit Ezic and instead are taking shots at town clears. They need Ezic dying while knowing that Ezic has the incentives to take shots at town clears to increase their likelihood of winning.

I don't know how Kolechia can play it any other way here other than shoot at Ezic, knowing that shooting town clears just accelerates the end. Kolechia wants town clears alive until they have the Ezic down to 1 if not zero in order to increase the odds of hitting Ezic with a day vote or with an NK in order to stave off the far more likely and difficult to avoid loss condition given their current state. Time is already very much not on their side if two townies die tonight.

fixed a typo in bold

[BesharamSabi]

To answer your questions squiggs,

What info does town gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

Given that last night two kills happened, one on a VT, one on a Bus Driver there a couple possibilities.

A VT was role blocked: To my knowledge they do not get a PM letting them know they were so they wouldn't be able to claim it

An opposing mafia member was role blocked: Can't tell us anything since Durga is dead. We know the Enforcer did not use their power OR was not role blocked given two kills occurred. Maybe Durga was role blocked, which would be good to know, but she can't tell us because she is dead. Maybe Kolechian Goon was blocked, but that's as good as blocking a townie to my understanding.

A Town PR was role blocked: If it was like M70 where I believe the doctor was PMed they were role blocked even if their save was unnecessary, it could out the doctor. If they don't they can't give any info so it's irrelevant. Otherwise we know a cop failed in their investigation, which lends credibility to their claim if it goes unchallenged, but it also forces them to claim very early for no apparent reason. Unless I am missing something I don't see what is gained through this other than a non-Ezic clear that will likely die at the hands of the Ezic team the next day. Maybe it makes a good Doc target, but shit that just doesn't seem worth it.

What info does scum gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

They know that they have a power, whether a scum member or a town PR and are therefore a good target. I don't see why this would be revealed?

The only way I could see it having any value is if VT get messages on a role block in which case there is a far wider pool of potential non-Ezic clears which could be nice.

If you disagree, Squiggs, tell me what I am missing, because I straight up don't get it.

##ask gm ##all gm

Do VT who get roleblocked get a roleblocked pm?

[TheMadMonarch]

Mixed bag of a EOD.

Nice work to the vig. Hope you stay alive.

I know that I also voted for tom, but reading through EOD, 10 votes just comes out of absolutely nowhere and necks the guy. This seems suspicious to me. For the record, Damo led that charge, being the first vote in both waves, and declaring it a good idea at the first.

@Bozo: I would like to put Damo where Tom was, on my list.

Got things to do, I'll be back in a couple hours.

[brainbomb]

would rather have lfischl dead than Tom this turn happy to vote for Tom next turn as I could see him being part of the Durga team ##vote lfischl

yea this is scum

sorry lfischl for voting you and hell of a shot!

Ive caught up and I think tfb, macca, sabi are people to go for next

[TheFlyingBoat]

would rather have lfischl dead than Tom this turn happy to vote for Tom next turn as I could see him being part of the Durga team ##vote lfischl

yea this is scum

sorry lfischl for voting you and hell of a shot!

Ive caught up and I think tfb, macca, sabi are people to go for next

Why is this scum?

[bozotheclown]

Do you disagree with my assessment that it's unlike you not to ask about it?

Why would I ask about it?

You have a known obsession with mechanics, and there's a missing roleblock claim.

I am fairly certain I have never asked about an unclaimed RB. RBing the NK is common N1.

[bozotheclown]

OK a quick scan of eod:

Why were some of yall so pushy about outing someone, esp a PR, about a role block message?

I need to read said people again but that was odd thing to push for esp during EOD.

No one is suggesting a PR out themselves. Just to say "I was roleblocked" and leave it at that. Think of it this way:

What info does town gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?
What info does scum gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

Most likely the RB was just used on Durga when team Ezic killed her (assuming the Kolechians didn't kill Durga although a Bus drive gone bad could be possible)

Wouldn't that also out the person if they were pr too.

I just think it's a bad idea to admit you were roleblocked because it's just giving ammo to scum.

Typically the mafia know who they RB, although not all the mafia in this game.

[bozotheclown]

To answer your questions squiggs,

What info does town gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

Given that last night two kills happened, one on a VT, one on a Bus Driver there a couple possibilities.

A VT was role blocked: To my knowledge they do not get a PM letting them know they were so they wouldn't be able to claim it

An opposing mafia member was role blocked: Can't tell us anything since Durga is dead. We know the Enforcer did not use their power OR was not role blocked given two kills occurred. Maybe Durga was role blocked, which would be good to know, but she can't tell us because she is dead. Maybe Kolechian Goon was blocked, but that's as good as blocking a townie to my understanding.

A Town PR was role blocked: If it was like M70 where I believe the doctor was PMed they were role blocked even if their save was unnecessary, it could out the doctor. If they don't they can't give any info so it's irrelevant. Otherwise we know a cop failed in their investigation, which lends credibility to their claim if it goes unchallenged, but it also forces them to claim very early for no apparent reason. Unless I am missing something I don't see what is gained through this other than a non-Ezic clear that will likely die at the hands of the Ezic team the next day. Maybe it makes a good Doc target, but shit that just doesn't seem worth it.

What info does scum gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

They know that they have a power, whether a scum member or a town PR and are therefore a good target. I don't see why this would be revealed?

The only way I could see it having any value is if VT get messages on a role block in which case there is a far wider pool of potential non-Ezic clears which could be nice.

If you disagree, Squiggs, tell me what I am missing, because I straight up don't get it.

It is typical in games here for anyone to get the message they were role blocked, whether or not they have a power or use it.

[bozotheclown]

Mixed bag of a EOD.

Nice work to the vig. Hope you stay alive.

I know that I also voted for tom, but reading through EOD, 10 votes just comes out of absolutely nowhere and necks the guy. This seems suspicious to me. For the record, Damo led that charge, being the first vote in both waves, and declaring it a good idea at the first.

@Bozo: I would like to put Damo where Tom was, on my list.

Got things to do, I'll be back in a couple hours.

snowy and ghug led the Tom DK, and a number of players moved to Tom after lfischl claimed. I am not sure yet if snowy and ghug leading the town is as good idea.

[ghug]

Why do you want to keep both scum teams around?

Because a 9-3 game in which multiple members of mafia have likely been able to hide in deep because of good prior reads is hard. At this point the 1 mafia guy left on Durga's team, if they are any good, have to be scum hunting to try and even up the odds and bet on us also hitting the other scum team and counting on the other scum team to miss him and do the dirty work of killing town.

In an 8-2-1 game, town has a much higher chance of winning (assuming for the sake of this math that the other mafia misses on this shot). There is a decent chance the enemy teams hit each other once again which makes life even easier for us. The two mafia teams are each other's worst enemies and that can work in town's interest to keep the last Kolechian alive. Also good to note is that there are no more Kolechian power roles left. The Ezic power roles left are the blocker and the forger. An NK hitting either of those from the other mafia team would massively spike town win odds.

OK you explained that but as town I like our odds better with one team. All it takes is both scum teams to night kill two VT or even a village pr and we are fucked. I want this multi scum team game to be singular.

Two night kills is too high. I'm sorry not sorry.

This post feels pretty emblematic of the weird but townie vibe.

[ghug]

OK a quick scan of eod:

Why were some of yall so pushy about outing someone, esp a PR, about a role block message?

I need to read said people again but that was odd thing to push for esp during EOD.

What do you even mean by this?

[ghug]

OK a quick scan of eod:

Why were some of yall so pushy about outing someone, esp a PR, about a role block message?

I need to read said people again but that was odd thing to push for esp during EOD.

No one is suggesting a PR out themselves. Just to say "I was roleblocked" and leave it at that. Think of it this way:

What info does town gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?
What info does scum gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

Most likely the RB was just used on Durga when team Ezic killed her (assuming the Kolechians didn't kill Durga although a Bus drive gone bad could be possible)

Wouldn't that also out the person if they were pr too.

I just think it's a bad idea to admit you were roleblocked because it's just giving ammo to scum.

Us this a scuown slip?

[ghug]

TFB seems awfully invested in not killing scum

It's his towniest moment all game though.

[ghug]

No one is suggesting a PR out themselves. Just to say "I was roleblocked" and leave it at that. Think of it this way:

What info does town gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?
What info does scum gain if someone shares that they were roleblocked?

Most likely the RB was just used on Durga when team Ezic killed her (assuming the Kolechians didn't kill Durga although a Bus drive gone bad could be possible)

Wouldn't that also out the person if they were pr too.

I just think it's a bad idea to admit you were roleblocked because it's just giving ammo to scum.

I think if you try to answer my questions I posed to you, you might realize why both of points here are wrong

Squiggles can you go reread Durga and Flum cause I don't have time?

[ghug]

Like either I am dumb or crazy, because I can't understand how it isn't obvious we should be shooting into the other team right now.

You're assuming perfect knowledge. We don't know which team folks are on any more than we know if they're scum, so trying to get fancy and shoot for one team instead of just shooting for scummy is bad play.

[ghug]

Mixed bag of a EOD.

Nice work to the vig. Hope you stay alive.

I know that I also voted for tom, but reading through EOD, 10 votes just comes out of absolutely nowhere and necks the guy. This seems suspicious to me. For the record, Damo led that charge, being the first vote in both waves, and declaring it a good idea at the first.

@Bozo: I would like to put Damo where Tom was, on my list.

Got things to do, I'll be back in a couple hours.

You know the Tom votes were in response to a claim, right?