MAFIA 71: "PAPERS PLEASE" - GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[Foxcastle]

Hypothesis: Neither entire scumteam was on Bona.

This would mean at least 2 scum off Bona. I townread rdr and TB so at least 2 scum in Flum, TFB, Capt, Snowy, Kgray, Macca (that order S->T).

I despair at ever understanding you.

Well rdr understood quite readily.

No no, I understood your point, I was talking about you.

There are a bunch of different incentives for all three of a scum team to end up on Bona. We can't discount that it could have happened, even if it's not likely.

[damo666]

counter point to damo
with how bona was playing
what if both scumteams felt he was scum from the other team
thus the surge

Yes, that's possible.

[damo666]

I dont think it would be wise to assume no scum ever voted bona, or that gobs of scum voted bona.

I do scumlean sabi now however

No scum on Bona is so highly improbable I would discard it. All scum on Bona more likely than none, but still improbable in my book.

[Durga]

Hypothesis: Neither entire scumteam was on Bona.

This would mean at least 2 scum off Bona. I townread rdr and TB so at least 2 scum in Flum, TFB, Capt, Snowy, Kgray, Macca (that order S->T).

Must be nice to just be able to assert random shit and have no one question it

It is not an assertion it is an hypothesis and a corollary derived therefrom. The verbs 'assert' and 'hypothesise' have very different meanings.

It is not random, it is a rational hypothesis.

It is not shit, it is an hypothesis that will eventually proved either right or wrong.

Hypotheses are for testing, questions are welcome.

Unreasoned criticism is not however welcome.

Okay please explain your methodology

[Durga]

I dont think it would be wise to assume no scum ever voted bona, or that gobs of scum voted bona.

I do scumlean sabi now however

Why?

[damo666]

I despair at ever understanding you.

Well rdr understood quite readily.

No no, I understood your point, I was talking about you.

There are a bunch of different incentives for all three of a scum team to end up on Bona. We can't discount that it could have happened, even if it's not likely.

I'm not discounting it but yes I think it unlikely. Until further evidence comes to light I am happy to use it as a guide. If other townies find that useful well that's good, if not, c'est la vie.

[Foxcastle]

Must be nice to just be able to assert random shit and have no one question it

It is not an assertion it is an hypothesis and a corollary derived therefrom. The verbs 'assert' and 'hypothesise' have very different meanings.

It is not random, it is a rational hypothesis.

It is not shit, it is an hypothesis that will eventually proved either right or wrong.

Hypotheses are for testing, questions are welcome.

Unreasoned criticism is not however welcome.

Okay please explain your methodology

I have already done this.

[Foxcastle]

Well rdr understood quite readily.

No no, I understood your point, I was talking about you.

There are a bunch of different incentives for all three of a scum team to end up on Bona. We can't discount that it could have happened, even if it's not likely.

I'm not discounting it but yes I think it unlikely. Until further evidence comes to light I am happy to use it as a guide. If other townies find that useful well that's good, if not, c'est la vie.

No. Not "if not, c'est la vie." If not, you have led us astray with bad reasoning.

[damo666]

Must be nice to just be able to assert random shit and have no one question it

It is not an assertion it is an hypothesis and a corollary derived therefrom. The verbs 'assert' and 'hypothesise' have very different meanings.

It is not random, it is a rational hypothesis.

It is not shit, it is an hypothesis that will eventually proved either right or wrong.

Hypotheses are for testing, questions are welcome.

Unreasoned criticism is not however welcome.

Okay please explain your methodology

There are 2 scumteams of 3. If neither whole scumteam was on Bona then at least one from each team was not. Hence at least 2 scum not on Bona. Obviously it's a fairly big if.

The ordering is, of course, just my opinion.

[damo666]

No no, I understood your point, I was talking about you.

There are a bunch of different incentives for all three of a scum team to end up on Bona. We can't discount that it could have happened, even if it's not likely.

I'm not discounting it but yes I think it unlikely. Until further evidence comes to light I am happy to use it as a guide. If other townies find that useful well that's good, if not, c'est la vie.

No. Not "if not, c'est la vie." If not, you have led us astray with bad reasoning.

The reasoning isn't bad. It has a result that is either right or wrong.

Answer me this: what is the most likely number of entire scumteams voting for Bona; 0, 1 or 2?

[Foxcastle]

I'm not discounting it but yes I think it unlikely. Until further evidence comes to light I am happy to use it as a guide. If other townies find that useful well that's good, if not, c'est la vie.

No. Not "if not, c'est la vie." If not, you have led us astray with bad reasoning.

The reasoning isn't bad. It has a result that is either right or wrong.

Answer me this: what is the most likely number of entire scumteams voting for Bona; 0, 1 or 2?

Scum are not a statistics problem. They have incentives, often that we cannot see.

[brainbomb]

I dont think it would be wise to assume no scum ever voted bona, or that gobs of scum voted bona.

I do scumlean sabi now however

Why?

the early efforts to get me to talk about best strategies ive used for PR hunting felt odd for a town aligned person to want to ask. Its one of those things a person maybe wants to know but should realize you cant actually talk about. I sort of feel like it was them asking for free advice on how to identify who PRs are

[rdrivera2005]

counter point to damo
with how bona was playing
what if both scumteams felt he was scum from the other team
thus the surge

That's why I said we can't discard this possibility. But I find psychologically hard for all scum to vote together, specially on D1, unless very specific circumstances. There is a tendency of tryng to detach from the scumpartners.

[brainbomb]

Howdy brain bomb,

I am glad I finally get to play with you at last. I see you already answered my questions about playing style and how you scum hhunt for me already. That is greatly appreciated by the way. I guess I can ask other questions for you :

What do you mean you harm town due to not holding your cards close?

If you were scum, how do you decide who is town clear by night one?

I only ask the last question because I feel like it's hard to get an idea who is universally town read by everyone during night one.

Hopefully you answer these questions for me.

[brainbomb]

Tell me if I'm reading this wrong but you pr hunt when you're both town and when youre scum?

why we would want to talk about night one or any of that right now

Well you mentioned how you like to kill town clears and was wondering what your method of that was for night one when you were scum.

[BesharamSabi]

Good morning sunshine,

How is everyone after a good night's sleep?

I do Love to wake up to see brainbomb go from I'm town to scumlean.

Like I always say, brainbomb build that wagon on me. Make sure it's super strong if you do. I am encouraging this.

[rdrivera2005]

Hypothesis: Neither entire scumteam was on Bona.

This would mean at least 2 scum off Bona. I townread rdr and TB so at least 2 scum in Flum, TFB, Capt, Snowy, Kgray, Macca (that order S->T).

I tend to agree that an entire scumteam voting together is unusual, but with two Mafia it can't be discarded. Anyway, having at least two scum outside Bona wagon is a good estimation.

How would you list the others outside Bona?

I am not sure if focusing on people outside Bona is the best way to go if you believe there is 2 or 3 there (with 2 is 2 out of 8 in my POV and 4 out of 9 in the other group).

Anyway, I would list Flum -Meme-TFB-Tom-Snowy-Macca-Kgray-myself

[brainbomb]

Rather than saying it was sabi not knowing any better or not knowing what questions are just dangerous : which is possible I admit

it is also possible this is sabi wanting a free consult on how to hunt PR and produce kills for their scum team- hoping id foolishly just reveal a bunch of startegies for them

[brainbomb]

Good morning sunshine,

How is everyone after a good night's sleep?

I do Love to wake up to see brainbomb go from I'm town to scumlean.

Like I always say, brainbomb build that wagon on me. Make sure it's super strong if you do. I am encouraging this.

why did you want to know my strategies for PR hunting?

was there any concern that if I answered in a certain way it might actually help one of the scumteams?

[BesharamSabi]

I dont think it would be wise to assume no scum ever voted bona, or that gobs of scum voted bona.

I do scumlean sabi now however

Why?

the early efforts to get me to talk about best strategies ive used for PR hunting felt odd for a town aligned person to want to ask. Its one of those things a person maybe wants to know but should realize you cant actually talk about. I sort of feel like it was them asking for free advice on how to identify who PRs are

I only asked because you boasted about pr hunting as both town and scum. I have kept bringing up the fact you pr hunt as town and scum as well.

I haven't pr hunted or done any hunting besides scum hunting so far if you can't tell.