M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[dargorygel]

Some of you know about my 'hobby...' Here is a teaser of the film I've been able to help with over the summer/fall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cSSk1l7Mys

wait this is really good

are you acting in this?

Yes, although my part isn't going to be filmed till March.

[Bonatogether]

bona - what's your take on your wagon at EOD? do you think the lack of voters that aren't snowy/bozo indicates TvTvT or TvTvS from your POV?

lack of movement indicates scum don't care, which is a tick in favor of TvTvT but i think bozo is scum anyways

[Squigs44]

To be good at town you have to be able to both identify scum and then convince others to vote for your reads. Historically I think Jamie is above average at identifying scum but has struggled with convincing others that he is town and that his reads are correct, which is why he has the reputation he has.

I disagree. Jamie's actually pretty good at convincing others he's town (regardless of alignment). He's not good at identifying scum. He ends up the deciding vote in so many endgames because of the combination of these.

Weird, cause I have several memories of Jamie being miskilled but only one or 2 of him being NKd. This would be a fun stat to add to the mafia tracker after game.

[dargorygel]

To be good at town you have to be able to both identify scum and then convince others to vote for your reads. Historically I think Jamie is above average at identifying scum but has struggled with convincing others that he is town and that his reads are correct, which is why he has the reputation he has.

I disagree. Jamie's actually pretty good at convincing others he's town (regardless of alignment). He's not good at identifying scum. He ends up the deciding vote in so many endgames because of the combination of these.

Weird, cause I have several memories of Jamie being miskilled but only one or 2 of him being NKd. This would be a fun stat to add to the mafia tracker after game.

You want a new stat to keep track of Jamie's kill statusi? Isn't that a little specific?

But seriously, I endorse this.

[Squigs44]

I disagree. Jamie's actually pretty good at convincing others he's town (regardless of alignment). He's not good at identifying scum. He ends up the deciding vote in so many endgames because of the combination of these.

Weird, cause I have several memories of Jamie being miskilled but only one or 2 of him being NKd. This would be a fun stat to add to the mafia tracker after game.

You want a new stat to keep track of Jamie's kill statusi? Isn't that a little specific?

But seriously, I endorse this.

Not just Jamie, but whether anyone is more likely to be NKd or miskilled as town

[dargorygel]

Weird, cause I have several memories of Jamie being miskilled but only one or 2 of him being NKd. This would be a fun stat to add to the mafia tracker after game.

You want a new stat to keep track of Jamie's kill statusi? Isn't that a little specific?

But seriously, I endorse this.

Not just Jamie, but whether anyone is more likely to be NKd or miskilled as town

Aye... my last comment was endorsing THIS.

[ghug]

Why would I express no preference as scum if it was TvS? That paints me into a corner where I'm not getting cred for killing a teammate and looking suspicious for framing them.

I think you still get credit for killing a teammate if you're scum because you have a very plausible way to not vote them (since you're 50/50) but decided not to use it

That line was more of a reaction to "I don't think scum coasts through a TvT that blatantly" but in hindsight you probably would do that

What do you make of bozo's silence in the last many minutes?

Sort of ties into the other points about him - I don't see why town Bozo who strongly townreads his main counterwagon disappears like that

Do you actually think Jamie's meme voting means anything?

maybe it's a little lighter than I would expect Jamie to be at EOD? but mostly no

I object to calling my EoD coasting. I made sure there were two wagons I liked.

[ghug]

To be good at town you have to be able to both identify scum and then convince others to vote for your reads. Historically I think Jamie is above average at identifying scum but has struggled with convincing others that he is town and that his reads are correct, which is why he has the reputation he has.

I disagree. Jamie's actually pretty good at convincing others he's town (regardless of alignment). He's not good at identifying scum. He ends up the deciding vote in so many endgames because of the combination of these.

Weird, cause I have several memories of Jamie being miskilled but only one or 2 of him being NKd. This would be a fun stat to add to the mafia tracker after game.

He doesn't get killed a lot period.

[Jamiet99uk]

This is an interesting perspective of your own position in the game.

Multiple people have called me a strong townread.

However my judgement is wildly off, it seems, as you saw from me leading Snowy to his death.

So maybe it's best they put me out of town's misery.

I remember damo strongly townreading you recently. Who else has done so?

Bona, Squigs, Bozo and Celaph all declared townreads on me in the past day or so.

[Jamiet99uk]

I disagree. Jamie's actually pretty good at convincing others he's town (regardless of alignment). He's not good at identifying scum. He ends up the deciding vote in so many endgames because of the combination of these.

Weird, cause I have several memories of Jamie being miskilled but only one or 2 of him being NKd. This would be a fun stat to add to the mafia tracker after game.

He doesn't get killed a lot period.

I have been miskilled a fair few times. Often led by town.

[Jamiet99uk]

I am hardly ever the NK, that's true.

[DeathLlama8]

hm maybe it's like bozo/damo/darg/hopefully not a fourth person

[BesharamSabi]

One my way to the airport so trying to catch up:

@sabi
You asked me for an example of 'analyzing' players' scumhunting. I present jamie. Unlike what many folk claim (usually pushing his buttonz) Jamie is good at webMafia. HIs usual scumhunting technique is to find where people lie. He defines lying as any statement that either contradicts a previous (or subsequent) statement.

He sees a lie... and burrows into it. It looks like tunneling, sometimes.

I think this is a good and useful methodology, and I am usually glad to see Jamie evaluating statements, because then I can be lazy. He does this in any alignment, but as scum he is forced to let his teammate's lies go unnoted, or at least unpushed.

Another player's scumhunt pattern is bozo. He is mechanical, mechanical, mechanical. He might seem to be floundering in THIS game because there is not a lot of mechanics. Notice, that he is pushing against YOU because of basically a mechanical analysis.

I find this a good and useful methodology, and I am usually glad to see bozo fine-toothing mechanical issues, because then I can be lazy. When scum, he tends to choose mechanical things that do not matter. I think his analysis in THIS game about how many scum there might be is very worthwhile.

Ghug is my final example. He likes to act snarky. He is motivated by a sense of justice, it seems to me. (Note his reaction to worcej.) When he sees something he dislikes, he pushes and then escalates and escalates and escalates. Ghug knows how to push folk's buttonz and gauges their reaction.

I find this a fairly useful methodology. But it tends to hurt the town, often. Escalating with a bunch of overcompetitive, bored with our lives, prideful folk rarely looks nice at the end. I am usually glad to see ghug attempting some probing escalation because then I can pretend to be nice.

I appreciate this post. Thank you for sending me analysis and insights on players scum hunting skills

where are you getting this equation? and why do you think eden and chaqa are doing math?

I'd be a little annoyed if they weren't doing math.

My rule of thumb is that more than half of daykills being correct should be a town win and less than half should be a scum win. PRs should tend to offset each other, but something that generates clears would potentially reduce the number of town.

In a 4 scum setup, we'd have to get 2/3 right to win. Getting half right over six days would be a loss. In a three scum setup, we'd need to get three right before getting four wrong, which is closer to balanced. We have to consider the possibility that we're at KILO, but I don't think we are.

hmm

I don't think it's very useful to do math right now, but moreso to just kill scum and see how play changes and guess based on that

That's unlike you Bona. For someone who loves vca and what not the fact your aren't concerned with the amount of miskills is weird.

Anyway pointing this out for others. Am I reaching about this?

[BesharamSabi]

day 2 player reads updated

Here is day ones post

viewtopic.php?p=274435#p274435

Bonatogether - (prev null, still null)
I felt like he was more active day 2 but I could be wrong. Still isn't giving me solid town vibes or even scum vibes. He hasn't done his usual scum hunt either. I am still baffled by him.

Bozotheclown - (prev scumlean, still scumlean)
I don't see any issues voting him off for day 3 if he isn't night killed. Yes he was more active and engaged but his vibes are still off. He's sti sporadic and hasn't explained his thought process. What I read from foods post still ringing in my war.

Celaph - (prev null, now scumlean)
I was hyped up about kgray telling me how great and fun celaph is at mafia and I have yet to witness any of that. He was barely around for day 2. When he as here he was barely posting or scum hunting. Don't mind voting for him day 3.

Damo666 - (prev scumlean, now null-scumlean)
Maybe I am biased because of his focus on me, still feel he's scummy but he could also just be null if yiu take away my bias. He seems to finally move on from me and started looking at other options.

Dargo - (prev null, still null)
Giving me nothing. Hasn't contribute much, and if anything less than worcej. Can't read them for anything.

DeathLlama8 - (prev townlean, still townlean)
Yea nothing in my read on him has changed. Still giving me townie vibes.

Ghug - (prev null, now null-townlean)
Would be townlean but snowy rather obsessed tunneling on ghug is inspiring me to reread his post sometime in the next 24 hours or so. Have to honor dead peoples wishes am I right.

Jamiet99uk - (prev townlean, still townlean)
Nothing has changed. Still think he's townie even if my reads in him tends to be more wrong than right. Maybe I will be right this time.

Squigs - (prev null, still null)
I haven't had time to reread them or anything since my last update. Should probably do that before I form an opinion. Trying to not be biased since they are now focusing on me.

1) what is my usual scum hunt, in your view?

2) You said you don't see any issues with voting bozo off - who do you prefer to vote d3?

3) What were you expecting wrt celaph?

4) What are your thoughts on what ghug has done? What specific ghug posts contributed to that?

5) what are your initial thoughts on sqoogs, including bias and without rereads?

1) m70 you were a lot more active and intrograting everyone and their mother. Putting pressure on players and doing lots of VCA. The fact you haven't done that once this game is off to me.

2) bozo, damo, or celaph depending on how they are in day 3

3) kgray was vague but was like celaph is amazing and great to play mafia with and was very good at scumhunting. So I'm going based off that.

4) when I land from my flight I will do that. I'm on my phone and couldn't be assed to do that from my phone.

5) null to maybe townlean. I do appreciate the fact they did try to tunnel on me even if it was wrong and a reach. Like I said gotta reread and what not. Been busy unfortunately.

Sorry for the shitty answer. In the uber and I'm stressed about my flight status lol.

[DeathLlama8]

won’t be here at eon but will hopefully have more time for Content tomorrow. also fully aware this is bad but I’m on my phone so I’ll explain more if I make it

sabi town
celaph squigs lean town
bona lean town but less so
jamiet ghug null but I should definitely reread ghug
dargo lean scum - they’ve been flying under the radar and making a lot of tangential posts without pushing anything, and them being scum would help explain eod if bozo flips scum
damo lean scum - feel better about their eod1 bc that snowy post but d2 static ness is weird and they’re still not showing a lot to change my mind
bozo scum

[Bonatogether]

I'd be a little annoyed if they weren't doing math.

My rule of thumb is that more than half of daykills being correct should be a town win and less than half should be a scum win. PRs should tend to offset each other, but something that generates clears would potentially reduce the number of town.

In a 4 scum setup, we'd have to get 2/3 right to win. Getting half right over six days would be a loss. In a three scum setup, we'd need to get three right before getting four wrong, which is closer to balanced. We have to consider the possibility that we're at KILO, but I don't think we are.

hmm

I don't think it's very useful to do math right now, but moreso to just kill scum and see how play changes and guess based on that

That's unlike you Bona. For someone who loves vca and what not the fact your aren't concerned with the amount of miskills is weird.

Anyway pointing this out for others. Am I reaching about this?

There's not really a point to thinking about the miskills too much? It's really enough to know we're close to or at lylo, so today we have to kill scum.

[BesharamSabi]

Won't be around for EON due to probably being in the line for tsa.

Here's my will and testament in case I'm night killed (I will probably be night killed).

Reread bozo, ghug, damo, bona and celaph.

Reread foodcoats and bo.

Think about me.

If I die please for the love of God don't miskill someone and cause town to lose.

Town will win.

OK bye xoxo

[Bonatogether]

1) what is my usual scum hunt, in your view?

2) You said you don't see any issues with voting bozo off - who do you prefer to vote d3?

3) What were you expecting wrt celaph?

4) What are your thoughts on what ghug has done? What specific ghug posts contributed to that?

5) what are your initial thoughts on sqoogs, including bias and without rereads?

1) m70 you were a lot more active and intrograting everyone and their mother. Putting pressure on players and doing lots of VCA. The fact you haven't done that once this game is off to me.

2) bozo, damo, or celaph depending on how they are in day 3

3) kgray was vague but was like celaph is amazing and great to play mafia with and was very good at scumhunting. So I'm going based off that.

4) when I land from my flight I will do that. I'm on my phone and couldn't be assed to do that from my phone.

5) null to maybe townlean. I do appreciate the fact they did try to tunnel on me even if it was wrong and a reach. Like I said gotta reread and what not. Been busy unfortunately.

Sorry for the shitty answer. In the uber and I'm stressed about my flight status lol.

1) m70 was like, absolute peak performance on my part, and I also had a lot more time

3) celaph is normally a lowposter with smart observations and a very high proportion of wallposts. he's not a big pusher, but usually he's pretty solid at catching scum.

4) ok, tyvm

5) why do you appreciate that they tried to tunnel on you?

[bozotheclown]

I will be online in a few hours. Don't let the mafia talk you into hammering me before I get back, I have a feeling that would end the game.

[Bonatogether]

Now:

I will be online in a few hours. Don't let the mafia talk you into hammering me before I get back, I have a feeling that would end the game.

M70:

##vote bozo I won’t be here for EOD and I think he’s more scummy than kgray

This looks good in hindsight too, he never did come back

Man you guys really accomplished little while I was gone

Again, this kind of thing based on an incorrect assumption can lose the game for town.

M70:

Well, rest assured that this EoD probably won us the game in one big swoop.

This was exactly what town needed. I understand its not fun if you get wagoned as a PR when youre putting in a lot of effort, and I agree it was a total nonsensical wagon, but there was probably a significant scum effort there to try and save Bozo.

If you are town, your overconfidence in an incorrect assumption may cost you the game.

let's go

we got him