M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[dargorygel]

darg looking town, love to see it

at least I don't SMELL town.

[Bonatogether]

Bona
I have stuck with my intitial gut read of bona, and haven't moved from it. Nothing he has written has calmed my stomach.

And also... I note what might be considered Bona's Strategic Defense Initiative. He has had a LOT of votes. But he is arguing back against such votes with focus.

I recall a game with Vecna, who when voted against, argued against every single voter.

Not so bona.

A small for instance... but he has not addressed or commented on my long habit of voting for him. Probably, or at least MAYBE, because he does not respect my analytical power, or power of persuasion... so he does not 'bother' to react to me.

Or I am even more narcissistic.

i've accepted i'm always going to get votes off of tone/gut reads and there's really not a whole lot i can do about that without bending over backwards

I can relate... I'll keep watching you. That is not far off from my alnalysis of what you are doing. "Not Bothering" can be because I have not given you a case against yourself to ask me questions about.

Do you think you were being protected in those end of day votes? Do you think it might look like you were being protected? Was something else going on?

I was being protected d1 but I don't believe it was hugely SI for anyone since it was d1 was TvT. It's very town-indicative for worcognyl (especially since snowy can't have been protected as scum).

[Squigs44]

To be good at town you have to be able to both identify scum and then convince others to vote for your reads. Historically I think Jamie is above average at identifying scum but has struggled with convincing others that he is town and that his reads are correct, which is why he has the reputation he has.

[DeathLlama8]

darg looking town, love to see it

at least I don't SMELL town.

please don't smell people without their consent

[Bonatogether]

I'd be a little annoyed if they weren't doing math.

My rule of thumb is that more than half of daykills being correct should be a town win and less than half should be a scum win. PRs should tend to offset each other, but something that generates clears would potentially reduce the number of town.

In a 4 scum setup, we'd have to get 2/3 right to win. Getting half right over six days would be a loss. In a three scum setup, we'd need to get three right before getting four wrong, which is closer to balanced. We have to consider the possibility that we're at KILO, but I don't think we are.

hmm

I don't think it's very useful to do math right now, but moreso to just kill scum and see how play changes and guess based on that

Telling bozo we don't need math is like waving a red flag in front of a bull... or a mask in front of a trumpsupporter.

math is made up anyways

[DeathLlama8]

hi squigs
what did you see in bozo's EOD that made you flip back to snowy?

[ghug]

where are you getting this equation? and why do you think eden and chaqa are doing math?

I'd be a little annoyed if they weren't doing math.

My rule of thumb is that more than half of daykills being correct should be a town win and less than half should be a scum win. PRs should tend to offset each other, but something that generates clears would potentially reduce the number of town.

In a 4 scum setup, we'd have to get 2/3 right to win. Getting half right over six days would be a loss. In a three scum setup, we'd need to get three right before getting four wrong, which is closer to balanced. We have to consider the possibility that we're at KILO, but I don't think we are.

hmm

I don't think it's very useful to do math right now, but moreso to just kill scum and see how play changes and guess based on that

Yeah, the next day should be high-pressure regardless, and we should be focused on catching one scum, not four.

[Jamiet99uk]

Scum: Kill me tonight. I am pretty clear in most people's eyes so you're not going to get me mislynched tomorrow.

This is an interesting perspective of your own position in the game.

Multiple people have called me a strong townread.

However my judgement is wildly off, it seems, as you saw from me leading Snowy to his death.

So maybe it's best they put me out of town's misery.

[Jamiet99uk]

ow

why is thread dead? eod was informative

What information do you think you gained?

for example, that two people jumped on me at the last second is really informative. need to drill into that nugget.

One of those people was town, which you know, because that person died.

The other one of those people was Bozo, who you were just replying to.

[Jamiet99uk]

darg looking town, love to see it

at least I don't SMELL town.

please don't smell people without their consent

Some people don't give you any choice.

[ghug]

aight eod2 notes
---
With around one hour left, I switch onto bozo and sabi switches onto snowy. At this point, the vote is 4-4 with two votes on ghug and one on bona. At this point, snowy says he won't vote bozo to save himself and flips to bona.

I know I am town and I believe snowy is town, so for Squigs and ghug to be correct, the scum team would have to be Bonatogether, damo, and celaph, which is not impossible.

Can you explain what the thought process was behind this post?

vote bozo

i'm more sure about this nerd

Given where we were in the day/vote, this looks good if bozo flips scum

I'm driving but I should be home by EoD. Reading but can't post much. Bozo is really sticking to his guns while Snowy continues to come up with posts explaining why he can't give a solid read instead of building a convincing case. And before you say you don't need a case, look what happened with your vibe induced DL read. It evaporated when you did try to find a case

On the other hand, the reasoning here is a little shaky if EOD was TvS, especially since Squigs originally tried to get a Bozo wagon started - why is Bozo sticking to his guns inherently good?
---
Here, Ghug flips between snowy/bozo a few times to tie the vote, which is probably NAI but also annoying (he straight up says he doesn't have a preference between the two which is pretty blatant, so I think Ghug looks worse if this is TvS instead of TvT). Jamiet also gets some meme voting in, then later says it was to "test ghug's reactions" despite 31 seconds passing between his votes?

Bona and (to a lesser extent) Sabi both express distaste for the EOD, mainly due to the lack of actual movement. Celaph notes that the EOD feels like TvT or SvS. With ~2-3 minutes left, Snowy/Bozo switch onto Bona, making it 4-4-3. At thirty seconds, the tie is broken, first by Bona moving to Snowy, then Ghug/Celaph.
---
Few things of note here:
- It's interesting that the two main wagons were tied at 4 for so long, with no indication that a tie would break soon, but there wasn't really an attempt to get another wagon going. I would have to reread, but anyone scumreading Bona who stayed put at 4-4-3 could be worth rereading.
- The lack of movement at EOD feels more like TvT or maybe scum bussing Bozo. It's just weird for town!Bozo to strongly townread his counterwagon and then not try to get anything else going for the final twenty minutes.
- Looking at people's rationales for voting, damo's feels especially weak and his staticness at EOD could've just been out of a desire to protect bozo
- Squigs building the bozo wagon and then jumping back to snowy with that rationale is also weird but plausibly town-motivated - I don't individually scumread him enough to push anything unless bozo flips

Why would I express no preference as scum if it was TvS? That paints me into a corner where I'm not getting cred for killing a teammate and looking suspicious for framing them.

What do you make of bozo's silence in the last many minutes?

Do you actually think Jamie's meme voting means anything?

[ghug]

To be good at town you have to be able to both identify scum and then convince others to vote for your reads. Historically I think Jamie is above average at identifying scum but has struggled with convincing others that he is town and that his reads are correct, which is why he has the reputation he has.

I disagree. Jamie's actually pretty good at convincing others he's town (regardless of alignment). He's not good at identifying scum. He ends up the deciding vote in so many endgames because of the combination of these.

[dargorygel]

Some of you know about my 'hobby...' Here is a teaser of the film I've been able to help with over the summer/fall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cSSk1l7Mys

[ghug]

Scum: Kill me tonight. I am pretty clear in most people's eyes so you're not going to get me mislynched tomorrow.

This is an interesting perspective of your own position in the game.

Multiple people have called me a strong townread.

However my judgement is wildly off, it seems, as you saw from me leading Snowy to his death.

So maybe it's best they put me out of town's misery.

I remember damo strongly townreading you recently. Who else has done so?

[DeathLlama8]

Why would I express no preference as scum if it was TvS? That paints me into a corner where I'm not getting cred for killing a teammate and looking suspicious for framing them.

I think you still get credit for killing a teammate if you're scum because you have a very plausible way to not vote them (since you're 50/50) but decided not to use it

That line was more of a reaction to "I don't think scum coasts through a TvT that blatantly" but in hindsight you probably would do that

What do you make of bozo's silence in the last many minutes?

Sort of ties into the other points about him - I don't see why town Bozo who strongly townreads his main counterwagon disappears like that

Do you actually think Jamie's meme voting means anything?

maybe it's a little lighter than I would expect Jamie to be at EOD? but mostly no

[Bonatogether]

ow

What information do you think you gained?

for example, that two people jumped on me at the last second is really informative. need to drill into that nugget.

One of those people was town, which you know, because that person died.

The other one of those people was Bozo, who you were just replying to.

i'm aware

[DeathLlama8]

Some of you know about my 'hobby...' Here is a teaser of the film I've been able to help with over the summer/fall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cSSk1l7Mys

wait this is really good

are you acting in this?

[DeathLlama8]

bona - what's your take on your wagon at EOD? do you think the lack of voters that aren't snowy/bozo indicates TvTvT or TvTvS from your POV?

[DeathLlama8]

*lack of movement ig
sorry darg

[Squigs44]

hi squigs
what did you see in bozo's EOD that made you flip back to snowy?

If you look at my posts earlier in the day, I tried to make it clear that I thought Snowy was scummier than Bozo, and that my Bozo vote was to get a second wagon going instead of having the Snowy wagon sit there by itself. They were my top 2 scumreads though, so I would have been okay with either flip. Once the Bozo wagon overtook the Snowy wagon, I switched back to my higher scumread Snowy, also ensuring that the wagons were tied towards EoD.

As far as how my actual reads of Bozo and Snowy shifted, Bozo continued to be stubborn, so there wasn't a whole lot of new info that changed my read on him. As for Snowy, this post was one I did not like:

You have to understand that around 2 hours ago is the first time I actually sat down and analyzed this game. My re-read attempt is still stuck at p28 or something and a huge chunk of the game (esp. n1/first half of d2) was either read bleary eyed as I woke up or skimmed through hastily while I was outside/playing games with other people

My defense of self was something I could make without any further context or information from the game as it only had to do with myself. Any cases on other people required that I spend extensive time and effort re-reading and contemplation, especially as it is very important to me (and to the rest of you guys too I guess as a team) that my reads be correct

Now that I'm actually doing that, a lot of my opinions are shifting. If you truly must have a concrete reason why my opinion on you changed I can go back and fish for it, but right now I'd rather like to slog through these ISOs (like I'm 70% done with damo and I think it's really towny)

After several people repeatedly asked him to explain his reads throughout day 1 and 2, he offered up another excuse for why he hadn't yet, and said his opinions that he shared this far were shifting as he analyzed the game for the first time. I found it hard to believe that town Snowy would wait until after making 300 posts to finally take the game seriously and try to analyze things. It sounded like the same appeal he tried to make EoD1, which was to give him another day to produce.