M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[damo666]

I dont think we can get too much out of VCA. There was too much volatility at EOD mainly I suspect due to tie avoidance.

The only observation I have is that I think Bona may have been saved by accident rather than design. I doubt both DL and celaph were bussing.

[foodcoats]

Why did you pick Bo over Snowy or Bona?

Least bad choice.

Why?

My particular experience playing with Bona convinces me he is likely town this game.

Snowy is good at mafia. Although his D1 was aloof and annoying, that is his style and I didn’t see anything that looked truly scum motivated.

Bo kind of ended up default for me, probably because I don’t know him as well.

I think the real error I made was moving off Squigs, FWIW. I’m not strictly convinced he is scum but I scumlean him. I also could’ve pushed ghug to test bona’s hunch. Alas.

[Jamiet99uk]

I dont think we can get too much out of VCA. There was too much volatility at EOD mainly I suspect due to tie avoidance.

The only observation I have is that I think Bona may have been saved by accident rather than design. I doubt both DL and celaph were bussing.

I wouldn't put it past "tie avoidance" being used as a useful excuse...

[Jamiet99uk]

Also what if Bona was accidentally saved by people who were definitely trying to save Snowy, had two town choices to move to, and decided on Bo_Sox?

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh also, @Damo666: Two people specifically said they were moving to save Bona.

Those people were Worcej and Foodcoats.

If Bona is town do you think a Mafia player would say "I'm doing this to defend Bona"?

If Bona is scum do you think they'd have the brass neck to say that?

[Jamiet99uk]

Damo's comments there make it look like he was just looking back at the voting patterns and didn't remember Foodcoats and Worcej saying that - but he was present for EoD so that's slightly odd.

[Jamiet99uk]

Damo I would like your comments.

[foodcoats]

I probably won't have time to iso everyone before EON, so I will iso bo. Obviously he's not clairvoyant, but I had a good discussion with, I believe, Vecna and snowy a few games ago about why it is valuable to listen to dead town, namely that their views are shared in earnest, and are "true" from their own POV.

The things that jump out at me in bo's iso are his conviction that sabi is town and his suspicion of a Squigs-celaph scumteam.

Bo says "Sabi good" twice before making comments suggesting he is even more convinced they are town:

A thought popped in my head.

##ask gm

For the role pms, did you reveal who were the scum teammates or was that not included? Like hi you're scum and your team mates is person a, person b, and person c. Or is it a situation where scum don't know their teammates are till Night when they are in scum chat?

Thanks a bunch Eden : )

This actually feels like a townslip

If you need a townslip to realize Sabi is town just GM the next game or something

I love late day wagons on someone because they “look off” even though there is little if any meaningful information to come out of the flip regardless of alignment

Who do you think would be the most informative flip today, then, Bo_so?

Probably one of damo/Squigs/Sabi/me, but Sabi is 99.9999% town so I won’t vote for him. If anyone on that list is town you still have a collective effort of people that pushed them and some may have done so opportunistically. I could see some other big talkers who haven’t been pushed leaving some breadcrumbs if they happen to be scum but if nobody is pushing them then nobody has bussed them and nobody has had the chance to opportunistically wagon them.

Comparing this to my own feelings about Sabi and the general tenor of the conversation regarding them, I feel pretty confident eliminating Sabi from the potential scum pool for D2.

Bo has a complicated thought process on Squigs and was obviously interested in him. Perhaps there is a cognitive bias for staring at Squigs too long, as they are both site developers here. Nonetheless, Bo ends up spending considerable effort in an analysis of Squigs' behaviour with respect to celaph:

Why do you keep thinking Squigs is bussing celaph?

Squigs' main target today has been Bona. Yet he backed off Bona on page 26:

Ask me why I think you are scum and try to convince me that that reasoning is wrong.

Instead you tried convincing the other 11 or however many people in the game that I'm full of crap and my opinions can't be trusted. Town try to work together and correct incorrect lines of reasoning. Or at least they should.

I think my initial goal of voting you for pressure has accomplished its goal in getting conversations going and jumpstarting us out of the day 1 random question phase so I'll stand by that vote.

As for my thoughts on Bona now, I certainly haven't seen anything that convinces me Bona is town, but with input from Ghug and Sabi I might have to accept that my feelings towards Bona are mostly NAI and I'm gonna have to start looking at other players as well to get a better picture

It's worth noting that he made an actual case against Bona, one that was worth considering. How was that just a boring pressure vote? Why did he back off of it, and why did he credit you and ghug for convincing him to do so?

His next move is to jump to celaph:

So I liked Celaphs vibes early on, but since page 13 Celaph has made 7 posts:
1 question to me
4 posts defending/agreeing with me
1 posts giving the quote I asked for
1 post saying good job DL

I can't help but shake the feeling Celaph is trying to buddy me after my post saying I liked em.

He did, in fact, townread celaph early. So this post makes sense. Six minutes later, without Celaph posting again, he votes for Celaph:

Yeah I don't want to be pocketed by Celaph

##vote Celaph

I have done this a number of times as scum when I think "hmmm, maybe I should bus a teammate, but not that hard" and then realize that it's too obvious if I don't actually put a little heat on him. That's how this feels to me.

This is his first question to Celaph awhile after voting him:

@Celaph whenever they're back:

You have primarily given town reads and defended people. You haven't really given any reasons why anyone could be scum.

Why is this?

Does this seem like hardball to you? It's shit. He puts "pressure" on Celaph by voting for him and then leaves him a first grade level question to bail himself out of it.

Later:

Okay so I also went and reread (skimmed) Celaphs last game (well day 1), when they were a town cop. Celaph does townread people and defend people day 1, but they also place several votes and develop scumreads. Their tone is also different, that Celaph shared a lot more original insights rather than this Celaph who either says "I agree" or asks "Why do you think this?". Most notably Celaphs post count and average length of posts is much lower this game.

I'm gonna stick to my Celaph vote since I don't see any wagon that compels me more at the moment

More shit that he knows isn't going to stick with anyone else. He dropped his vote on a teammate on day 1 knowing it wasn't going to spur anyone else into wagoning him.

Since some people don't know what a scumread is, ##VOTE Squigs

I think the most interesting thing Bo picks up on in picking apart Squigs vs. Bona compared to Squigs vs. celaph is how much more intense the approach was to Bona. It certainly suggests the possibility that if Squigs is scum, celaph is more likely to be scum with him (and almost certainly that Squigs and Bona are never scum together). I don't scumread celaph (they are null to me right now), but I do have a slight scumlean on Squigs, so this - in my opinion - is an interesting observation to keep in mind if we flip Squigs.

[bozotheclown]

I dont think we can get too much out of VCA. There was too much volatility at EOD mainly I suspect due to tie avoidance.

The only observation I have is that I think Bona may have been saved by accident rather than design. I doubt both DL and celaph were bussing.

Why did you vote for Bonatogether?

[foodcoats]

POE:

BesharamSabi - townlean. The debate over Sabi's enthusiasm has landed, I think, largely in favour of town!Sabi. I also think Sabi's responses to those who have doubted their towniness were townie. Sabi has not given up the ship in face of adversity, and scum!Sabi would have been more inclined to do so, I think.

Bonatogether - townlean, largely on a meta basis (although I think meta is an incredibly value tool, because we are all animals). I haven't found the arguments for scum!Bona compelling because I have made the same mistaken reads of Bona in the past, and I think Bona is playing to form. However, this is a lean I am open to recalculating in future days based on interactions and content from Bona; I have never played against scum!Bona so I don't have a balanced perspective here. Reiterate that bona isn't scum with Squigs.

bozotheclown - scumlean. Bozo's D1 was stale. I was thrown off guard by bozo providing an excuse for low activity, and I've come around to disliking it from a meta perspective; even if town!bozo were not able to participate much, I don't think town!bozo would've used his little time to participate in the way he did. I think it will be illuminating to see how things proceed, as he has now altered his POE quite a bit after EOD.

celaph - I haven't "noticed" celaph much. I can't draw anything from this, although I did correctly scumread celaph once when he was vague, subtle and blendy in a manner not unlike he is here. For some reason, though, I don't push that semblance into a scumread. Guts.

damo666 - townlean, though not strongly. Damo has not done anything out of character. scum!damo can have a good D1, though. scum!damo usually ends up putting his foot in his mouth later. But I would also say that I just don't get any weird pings at all from damo, and I think when I've seen scum!damo I've always gotten an early ping - something he says just rings bizarre. For example, we don't see damo making any weird attempts at humour, as he often does when scum.

DeathLlama8 - I haven't played with DeathLlama. I townlean, but not strongly.

foodcoats - Town.

ghug - Townlean, though not strongly. ghug has seemed somewhat less present than in my other experiences. I'm intrigued by bona's suggestion that there was a suspicious interaction between ghug and Squigs. Time will tell.

Jamiet99uk - I suppose actually pretty null here. But I wouldn't vote for Jamie yet; I've seen no compelling reasons to.

snowy801 - I don't actually have any reason to townlean snowy yet; it's more that he's been given a pass from me for D1.

Squigs44 - scumlean. I think I've gone into this elsewhere so won't rehash it.

worcej/dargorygel - I found worcej's early D1 to be a big suspicious. However, as worcej himself said, nice worcej is either scum (or PR) worcej. We're all animals, and the worcej-Sabi interaction suggests worcej/darg is town.

I guess that makes my scumteam bozo, Squigs, and some combination of celaph/ghug/snowy/Jamie/DeathLlama - with my "level of suspicion" going from highest to lowest in that order.

[damo666]

Oh also, @Damo666: Two people specifically said they were moving to save Bona.

Those people were Worcej and Foodcoats.

If Bona is town do you think a Mafia player would say "I'm doing this to defend Bona"?

If Bona is scum do you think they'd have the brass neck to say that?

1. Yes, why not?
2. Not as scum, very doubtful.

[damo666]

I dont think we can get too much out of VCA. There was too much volatility at EOD mainly I suspect due to tie avoidance.

The only observation I have is that I think Bona may have been saved by accident rather than design. I doubt both DL and celaph were bussing.

I wouldn't put it past "tie avoidance" being used as a useful excuse...

Precisely why VCA not very useful.

[damo666]

Also what if Bona was accidentally saved by people who were definitely trying to save Snowy, had two town choices to move to, and decided on Bo_Sox?

Quite possible.

[dargorygel]

I dont think we can get too much out of VCA. There was too much volatility at EOD mainly I suspect due to tie avoidance.

The only observation I have is that I think Bona may have been saved by accident rather than design. I doubt both DL and celaph were bussing.

Might not there be simple coordination between Llama and Celaph? I am not scumseeing Bona, but if D and C were online together, maybe they were working together to lock in a misskill...

How lockscum on Bona are you?

[damo666]

Damo's comments there make it look like he was just looking back at the voting patterns and didn't remember Foodcoats and Worcej saying that - but he was present for EoD so that's slightly odd.

My comments wee purely from looking at vote record on bot, so yeah didn't take into account comments surrounding the votes. Maybe a tad lazy but not odd.

[dargorygel]

Damo's comments there make it look like he was just looking back at the voting patterns and didn't remember Foodcoats and Worcej saying that - but he was present for EoD so that's slightly odd.

My comments wee purely from looking at vote record on bot, so yeah didn't take into account comments surrounding the votes. Maybe a tad lazy but not odd.

damo's comments were apparently wee...

damo town, btw

[BesharamSabi]

Do you think this is going to happen?

Snowy also asked this.

I would hope so he would explain his reads and thoughts for this game but if he doesn't during day 2 I don't mine wagoning him. This applies to others who have been avoiding questions (ghug and bozo and damo).

Do you think this is going to happen? What are you thoughts if he doesn't do it during day 2?

What question have I not answered?

The hypothetical ones that were just me asking why you would kill so and so but was a way for me to get your thoughts on those players.

It doesn't matter anyway, I caught up and read your reads on my players so you're fine now in my books even if you are very difficult.

Disregard my comment please and thank you.

[BesharamSabi]

Bona Sabi DL scumteam???

Damn that would be a fun scum team.

Did you pick this scum team because they said that killing me was pointless?

Damo I dunno how to explain to you but just you are so far in this game now that have any sort of scum vibes from me. Why are you tunneling in on me so much? Like you went from scum to town to scum vibes for me?can you point our incidents or post that trigger this besides vibes? I want something concrete from you.

1. Yes that is why I picked the team.

I don't understand first sentence of next para.

I dont think I'm tunnelling on you. You are being very verbose, questioning and emphasising meta change. My auto reaction to this was scum pretence but then wasn't so sure. Worcej's observation about noob PR/scum excitabilty pushed me back to my original thinking.

Did you consider that Worcej observation was fueled by the fact I was the building a wagon on him and putting pressure on him? Everyone else thinks my vibes are townie but you are disregarding that for someone who obviously didn't like me and had a biased view on me.

Yiu say you're not tunneling me yet you scum reads are based off people that "defended" not killing me on day one.

Also you tried to flash wagon me while I was taking a couple of hours break from the game when you knew I would not defend or do anything.

Take a break from scum reading me so you can look at other players.

Anyway looking at EOD, who do you think was the weakest and strongest player?

[damo666]

Bona Sabi DL scumteam???

oh no he's too smar

##vote Bona

@Bozo why I voted Bona

a) Sabi was gaining no traction
b) I didn't like the response above
c) I didn't want to vote snowy
d) I thougt making it a 3 way tie would be more interesting than voting bo

[damo666]

I dont think we can get too much out of VCA. There was too much volatility at EOD mainly I suspect due to tie avoidance.

The only observation I have is that I think Bona may have been saved by accident rather than design. I doubt both DL and celaph were bussing.

Might not there be simple coordination between Llama and Celaph? I am not scumseeing Bona, but if D and C were online together, maybe they were working together to lock in a misskill...

How lockscum on Bona are you?

I don't see how they could do that. No communication and votes too close in time.

I am not lockscum on anyone.