M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

[ghug]

How lost?

Like need a rescue?

Not really lost just being silly

Lost in that I cannot at this moment tell you the exact steps that I need to get back to my vehicle. But I have a general intuition of where I am and how to get where I’m going

Kind of a microcosm of life actually

Just don’t get shot by a hunter who somehow mistakes a giant human and a dog for a turkey. Like my friend did last week (she’ll eventually be fine…buckshot missed her eye).

What the fuck

[President Eden]

ghug beat me to it, wtf?

[BunnyGo]

Welcome to Maine?

I dunno either. She was on her property.

[BunnyGo]

But I’m honestly scared to go hiking in a lot of Maine in the fall/winter. Even with orange hunter gear.

[President Eden]

How lost?

Like need a rescue?

I think Vecna might need a rescue....

I don't know. One time Eden had me dead to rights and then I convinced him I was town with my shroom brain.

I townread Brian for his acidposting that same game and he was also mafia

There’s an appreciable chance Chaqa is mafia, let his weed brain talk him into last minute vote changes, and I’m going to end up dropping my best mafia read ever because of it

Apparently the secret to getting me to lose your trail is drugs and alcohol

Welcome to Maine?

I dunno either. She was on her property.

Yea but a TURKEY? Lmao how…

[Tom Bombadil]

I find interesting you hate me accepting I am in the POE to be DKlled (which I am) and don't give a shit about Sabi actively wanting to be killed.

Context is sort of important… I expect you to care about getting miskilled as a Townie - and right now you don’t seem to care at all. If you are going the POE route instead of true scumhunting - killing confirmed town is like the worst thing ever so I don’t know why you’d be ok with that.

Sabi clearly had other shit going on and wanted to leave the game. I find her self vote townie as I think she would feel guilty about self voting if she were just one of a few scum left. If she is one of a ton of town left it’s not the end of the world.

If you expect rd to care about being miskilled as a townie, why does snowy not caring make you think he's town?

Because they are very different players. Rdrivera is essentially just using POE. And if you go that route, having yourself die kills your whole strategy since you are avoiding clears and townreads. I don’t understand how someone could be so nonchalant about themselves being the wagon - and bringing it up preemptively seems bleh.

Snowy I think would be trying harder to persevere as scum. And I think he is town turned off by the presumably boring (in his eyes) upcoming days. Also, rdrivera is saying this under virtually no pressure while snowys action was legitimately with his life on the line.

I’ve seen snowy get bored as scum before, so I’m not entirely sold here is town, but I do think the EOD makes me lean that way on him.

[ghug]

I think Vecna might need a rescue....

I don't know. One time Eden had me dead to rights and then I convinced him I was town with my shroom brain.

I townread Brian for his acidposting that same game and he was also mafia

There’s an appreciable chance Chaqa is mafia, let his weed brain talk him into last minute vote changes, and I’m going to end up dropping my best mafia read ever because of it

Apparently the secret to getting me to lose your trail is drugs and alcohol

Welcome to Maine?

I dunno either. She was on her property.

Yea but a TURKEY? Lmao how…

No lol I'm talking about M10.

[ghug]

Context is sort of important… I expect you to care about getting miskilled as a Townie - and right now you don’t seem to care at all. If you are going the POE route instead of true scumhunting - killing confirmed town is like the worst thing ever so I don’t know why you’d be ok with that.

Sabi clearly had other shit going on and wanted to leave the game. I find her self vote townie as I think she would feel guilty about self voting if she were just one of a few scum left. If she is one of a ton of town left it’s not the end of the world.

If you expect rd to care about being miskilled as a townie, why does snowy not caring make you think he's town?

Because they are very different players. Rdrivera is essentially just using POE. And if you go that route, having yourself die kills your whole strategy since you are avoiding clears and townreads. I don’t understand how someone could be so nonchalant about themselves being the wagon - and bringing it up preemptively seems bleh.

Snowy I think would be trying harder to persevere as scum. And I think he is town turned off by the presumably boring (in his eyes) upcoming days. Also, rdrivera is saying this under virtually no pressure while snowys action was legitimately with his life on the line.

I’ve seen snowy get bored as scum before, so I’m not entirely sold here is town, but I do think the EOD makes me lean that way on him.

That's an ok explanation I guess? I feel like you finished with the obvious rebuttal but then discounted it for some reason. kgray has firmly passed you on the "I agree with everything you say" metric at this point, which doesn't look good for you.

[ghug]

I don't know. One time Eden had me dead to rights and then I convinced him I was town with my shroom brain.

I townread Brian for his acidposting that same game and he was also mafia

There’s an appreciable chance Chaqa is mafia, let his weed brain talk him into last minute vote changes, and I’m going to end up dropping my best mafia read ever because of it

Apparently the secret to getting me to lose your trail is drugs and alcohol

Welcome to Maine?

I dunno either. She was on her property.

Yea but a TURKEY? Lmao how…

No lol I'm talking about M10.

The one you're talking about I was day drinking for the EoD where I got killed, but I don't think that has quite the same effect. Also you didn't have me dead to rights, you were just salty about something and it wore off.

[BunnyGo]

I think Vecna might need a rescue....

I don't know. One time Eden had me dead to rights and then I convinced him I was town with my shroom brain.

I townread Brian for his acidposting that same game and he was also mafia

There’s an appreciable chance Chaqa is mafia, let his weed brain talk him into last minute vote changes, and I’m going to end up dropping my best mafia read ever because of it

Apparently the secret to getting me to lose your trail is drugs and alcohol

Welcome to Maine?

I dunno either. She was on her property.

Yea but a TURKEY? Lmao how…

Guessing booze? It’s usually booze.

[President Eden]

Got back way earlier than I wanted because a 70-degree day turned into an 85-degree one. No thanks. (For Celsius weirdos, that's roughly going from 21 degrees to 30.)

[BesharamSabi]

I come back from a date to barely any posts. I'm ashamed. Where is everyone

[BunnyGo]

I come back from a date to barely any posts. I'm ashamed. Where is everyone

How was the date?

[BesharamSabi]

I come back from a date to barely any posts. I'm ashamed. Where is everyone

How was the date?

Good, we watched da bears game at the bar. Have a second date planned next weekend since he had to cut this one short due to furniture getting delivered.

[rdrivera2005]

Context is sort of important… I expect you to care about getting miskilled as a Townie - and right now you don’t seem to care at all. If you are going the POE route instead of true scumhunting - killing confirmed town is like the worst thing ever so I don’t know why you’d be ok with that.

Sabi clearly had other shit going on and wanted to leave the game. I find her self vote townie as I think she would feel guilty about self voting if she were just one of a few scum left. If she is one of a ton of town left it’s not the end of the world.

If you expect rd to care about being miskilled as a townie, why does snowy not caring make you think he's town?

Because they are very different players. Rdrivera is essentially just using POE. And if you go that route, having yourself die kills your whole strategy since you are avoiding clears and townreads. I don’t understand how someone could be so nonchalant about themselves being the wagon - and bringing it up preemptively seems bleh.

Snowy I think would be trying harder to persevere as scum. And I think he is town turned off by the presumably boring (in his eyes) upcoming days. Also, rdrivera is saying this under virtually no pressure while snowys action was legitimately with his life on the line.

I’ve seen snowy get bored as scum before, so I’m not entirely sold here is town, but I do think the EOD makes me lean that way on him.

And you didn't see I said I am bored as fuck with this parody of a real game? Seems legit.

[President Eden]

Why are there bugs in the woods? This is a scam

[DemonRHK]

NIGHT HAS ENDED PLEASE HOLD

[President Eden]

My TL;DR doesn't really do it justice, but:
* The JOAT was a decent reason not to rb worcej + kill Chaqa to this point, but now there's really no excuse for mafia not to do it. If it doesn't happen, and somehow I'm not dead to annoy y'all with it, please don't forget about Chaqa or write him off just because no cc.
* Killing lfischl is ludicrous if all our clears are right, even if you think they were PR hunting; we have a ton of clears if all claims are true. The most likely explanation to me is that one of our clears is actually mafia.

---

I lied about not suspecting Chaqa anymore in the hopes that if I stopped talking about it, while no one else was talking about it, then maybe the mafia would also give up on the idea that we're going to daykill him and just kill there instead.

Of course, even as I type this I'm pretty sure they don't give a shit what I think and have other considerations at play, but this time, if Chaqa's not dead, it surely has to be suspicious now. Right? There's no possible way for "roleblock worcej, kill Chaqa" to fail now. Our JOAT has claimed and said he used his one-shot heal. And it's the one order that frees their hand to start using their roleblock and/or kill how they want, instead of having to play around our power roles. If they roleblock worcej and shoot anyone else, Chaqa gets a scan. If they don't roleblock worcej, they risk him getting another save. Prior to the JOAT claiming and disclosing his lack of a heal, you could at least plausibly argue that they were playing around that. Now they don't have that excuse. I will be stunned if I don't make it to tomorrow, but in the off-chance I don't, please don't forget this.

---

Enough about Chaqa... sort of. The lfischl kill has been messing with me for a full turn cycle now, because it's so contrary to what I would expect from mafia there. Let's consider the position right before EON3:

- worcej is outed and 99.99% Doc.
- Bonatogether is 99.99% confirmed town due to worcej's save.
- BunnyGo is outed Miller; percentage unclear, lower than the above, still quite high (and if he's not mafia then 99.99%).
- Chaqa is outed Cop; percentage unclear, lower than BG's, still appreciably high (and if he's not mafia then 99.99%).
- Fluminator is outed VT from Chaqa's n0 scan; percentage unclear but quite high.
- If jasnah is town then the count is 15 townies to 3 mafia; if jasnah is mafia then the count is 16 to 2. In the first case, mafia gets six kills before endgame and we get six. In the second case, they get seven and we get seven.
- The Oracle and JOAT have not yet claimed, but all our information indicates they are not among the other clears.

I know y'all hate math, but our boy damo got killed way too early this game to do the math for us, so here goes.

Let's take as a given that all claims are true, and jasnah is VT. That means mafia gets six kills before endgame, and has seven confirmed or confirmable towns left alive. It also means that we have six chances to hit mafia out of a pool of 8 non-confirmable towns and 3 mafia. By simply randomly selecting one of the non-confirmable towns to vote out each day, we have a 94% chance of hitting at least one mafia before we lose, and a 34% chance of winning the game. Removing even one non-confirmable town from the pool, by mafia shooting a non-clear, increases our random-chance odds of victory from 34% to 47%. (You can confirm this for yourself with a hypogeometric distribution calculator online.) And I like to think we're a bit better than random chance...

It is ludicrous for mafia to be shooting non-clears that early. At most they can realistically spare one shot on a non-clear before endgame, if you think the last two clears you leave alive will fuck it up, and you can only afford to use that shot on someone who is both on fire with their reads, able to get themselves townread, and able to lead the winning charge on the mafia.

With all due respect to lfischl, he accomplished the second and might have accomplished the first (don't know yet), but nothing about his play was indicating that the third was likely. There was no particular urgency to kill him for these reasons, it could have waited until a bit later in the game. And using it on him means you don't get to use it in reaction to changing circumstances later in the game. What happens if you use your one realistic spare shot on lfischl on night 3, and then, idk, Vecna or kgray or somesuch (asuming they're VT for this hypothetical only) start obvtowning beyond all doubt and also start hounding two of the remaining mafia?

Even if you think lfischl is a PR, he's going to claim eventually, and as I've detailed before, N3 was the last time the JOAT would use a power. I do not believe restricting the Oracle's targets is worth the risk of loss in EV from our win percentage going up, because if you're wrong and create even one clear (by nightkilling) from among the non-clears, you completely negate whatever advantage exists from keeping the Oracle's targets restricted in the first place.

lfischl isn't a likely fearkill target, PR hunting doesn't make sense, and he wasn't a clear. What advantage is there to shooting him? The only one that comes to mind is creating a game state where mafia couldn't remove all the clears by endgame, because one clear is wrong.

You know which one I think it is.
In order of likelihood, IMO, it's Chaqa > BunnyGo > Fluminator > worcej = Bonatogether. Realistically I think it's only Chaqa or BunnyGo. And Chaqa is much more likely.

---

Sadly, bug issues from the woods deprived me of the time to do the more interesting thing, which is an EOD4 analysis. Oops!

I kinda believe snowy's cover story for not voting. Dunno if that means we shouldn't still kill him though.

[DemonRHK]

Meanwhile, inside Baskin-Robbins

My browser refreshed and I lost the EoN flavor.

FLUMINATOR has DIED! They were LITTLE BABY'S EARL GREY SRIRACHA!

Play continues.

Day 5 has bugun.

YOU MAY POST

[Bonatogether]

Meanwhile, inside Baskin-Robbins

My browser refreshed and I lost the EoN flavor.

FLUMINATOR has DIED! They were LITTLE BABY'S EARL GREY SRIRACHA!

Play continues.

Day 5 has bugun.

YOU MAY POST

Does this confirm that chaqa is cop?

I'm weirded out by these nks.