M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

[BesharamSabi]

It's odd how little of a fuck snowy's giving here.

Is it a good or bad sign?

[President Eden]

I'm gonna think aloud for a bit because y'all are boring. We have, amongst those alive + jasnah:

4 people I'm comfortable considering certain town for mechanical reasons
Bonatogether
BunnyGo
TheFlyingBoat
worcej

4 people I'm comfortable considering near-certain town for read reasons
Fluminator (this is also partially mechanical, but it's contingent on Chaqa)
Durga
BesharamSabi
jasnah

1 Chaqa:
Chaqa

3 people in the POE pool that I townread, most to least:
Vecna
Eden
Snowy

5 others in the POE pool, scum to town:
Jimmit
kgary
Mhmbadil
rd
Doom

First, let's assume Chaqa is scum. He has two teammates. He did move off of jasnah onto worcej in the final moments, which was super weird, and bozo did too, but either someone would have had to bus Jasnah there, or the last scum is in me/snowy/sabi. I guess a Chaqa/jasnah/bozo/snowy team is an option, but not a super likely one. Outside of that, I think Eden, rdr, and snowy all look good for the way the D1 voting played out, and sadly probably kgray too. This leaves Tom, Jimmit, and Doom as possible teammates. On day 2, I imagine this team is probably a little bus shy. Tom only voted for worcej and kgray. Doom did vote Tom, but wasn't around EoD and probably would have thought this was a safe vote. Jambo voted Tom early, but not for long, and joined the bozo wagon when it was in the lead, which I think makes it more plausible as a bus (it did get smaller and he rode it out, but again I think Jamie's the type to commit to the bus when he's on it). All in all, these teams are plausible, but I'm not in love with any of them. I'm starting to think Chaqa's just town.

If Chaqa's scum, we've got three to find. Let's look at plausible pairings.

Jamie - I think his avoidance of lurker-pushing this game could be because he has some as teammates, which would make rd, Doom, and Tom all potential options. I think Eden in particular is unlikely because of the whole gladiate thing, and I doubt he just hops on Snowy as he has here and lets it be SvS, but really anyone else is fair game.

kyrgyzstan - Tom is out of the question, I think. The interplay with rd has been more awkward than usual, so there might be something there. She voted for a bunch of townies day 1, and mostly Chaqa/Bozo/Tom day 2, though she did briefly put snowy into the lead over Vecna that day, so the former is slightly less likely (the latter was a joke wagon, so I don't really think there's any protection to read into. She did vote Jamie yesterday, but I don't know that we can read too much into anything that happened D3.

Rom Com - I know I just said not to read into Day 3, but Eden, Snowy, rdr, and Doom were all essential in making that a wagon. Much like in the Chaqascum scenario above, I think scum's a little likelier to be bus-shy after one of them is caught, and Tom definitely didn't need to be sacrificed. There could easily be like one busser there, but I'd look at Jamie and Vecna first, probably. It'd also be useful to look into who pushed the idea N2 that Tom was likely town due to how he nearly got killed. Maybe I'll do that overnight if y'all don't turn around and kill me.

rd - Really not a lot to dig into here. Again, the kgray interactions are awkward, and the Tom vote makes them unlikely teammates. I think specifically a Doom/Tom/rdr team is very unlikely. Scum Doom and rdr both getting on a small Tom wagon while their teammate was leading D2 is weird to think about if just both of them are scum, let alone if all three are.

Doom - Maybe Jamie and kgray. Maybe some of my nonclear townreads. Probably not Tom or rd. Not much to draw on here.

Overall, I think the most plausible looking teams are:
bozo + kgray + 2 (in order of likelihood) of Jamie, rd, Doom (not with rd), Eden (not with Jamie), snowy, Vecna
bozo + Tom + Jamie + Vecna, maybe swapping one of the latter two out with someone else that isn't Doom or kgray
bozo + Jamie + 2 of rd, Doom, Snowy
bozo + Chaqa + Jamie + Doom or Tom
worcej + bona + THB + ghug (best team)

Jamie is in every serious team except the first one where he is the most likely of many candidates for two slots

[kgray]

I don't think I've ever seen town!ghug put out such a long analysis post.

We can still get him!

[Bonatogether]

why is town dead?

[ghug]

I don't think I've ever seen town!ghug put out such a long analysis post.

We can still get him!

I did it repeatedly in the Priest game.

[DemonRHK]

Completely Fallible Human Yet GM Vote Count Day Four The Sixth
(Through post 9404)

snowy801(7) - Vecna, Doom427, Chaqa, TheFlyingBoat, worcej, Jamiet99uk, Bonatogether
Jamiet99uk(4) - President Eden, Fluminator, BunnyGo, kgray
Tom Bombadil(4) - snowy801, rdrivera2005, Durga, ghug
ghug(1) - Tom Bombadil
BesharamSabi(1) - BesharamSabi

Currently, SNOWY801 is set to be killed.

25 Minutes remain in Day 4

(I swear this one is right. I think)

[ghug]

It's odd how little of a fuck snowy's giving here.

Is it a good or bad sign?

Don't know honestly.

[President Eden]

why is town dead?

Because either we’re being lazy and shitty, or we’re properly voting among several very good shots that all likely get taken before F7 regardless

[ghug]

I'm gonna think aloud for a bit because y'all are boring. We have, amongst those alive + jasnah:

4 people I'm comfortable considering certain town for mechanical reasons
Bonatogether
BunnyGo
TheFlyingBoat
worcej

4 people I'm comfortable considering near-certain town for read reasons
Fluminator (this is also partially mechanical, but it's contingent on Chaqa)
Durga
BesharamSabi
jasnah

1 Chaqa:
Chaqa

3 people in the POE pool that I townread, most to least:
Vecna
Eden
Snowy

5 others in the POE pool, scum to town:
Jimmit
kgary
Mhmbadil
rd
Doom

First, let's assume Chaqa is scum. He has two teammates. He did move off of jasnah onto worcej in the final moments, which was super weird, and bozo did too, but either someone would have had to bus Jasnah there, or the last scum is in me/snowy/sabi. I guess a Chaqa/jasnah/bozo/snowy team is an option, but not a super likely one. Outside of that, I think Eden, rdr, and snowy all look good for the way the D1 voting played out, and sadly probably kgray too. This leaves Tom, Jimmit, and Doom as possible teammates. On day 2, I imagine this team is probably a little bus shy. Tom only voted for worcej and kgray. Doom did vote Tom, but wasn't around EoD and probably would have thought this was a safe vote. Jambo voted Tom early, but not for long, and joined the bozo wagon when it was in the lead, which I think makes it more plausible as a bus (it did get smaller and he rode it out, but again I think Jamie's the type to commit to the bus when he's on it). All in all, these teams are plausible, but I'm not in love with any of them. I'm starting to think Chaqa's just town.

If Chaqa's scum, we've got three to find. Let's look at plausible pairings.

Jamie - I think his avoidance of lurker-pushing this game could be because he has some as teammates, which would make rd, Doom, and Tom all potential options. I think Eden in particular is unlikely because of the whole gladiate thing, and I doubt he just hops on Snowy as he has here and lets it be SvS, but really anyone else is fair game.

kyrgyzstan - Tom is out of the question, I think. The interplay with rd has been more awkward than usual, so there might be something there. She voted for a bunch of townies day 1, and mostly Chaqa/Bozo/Tom day 2, though she did briefly put snowy into the lead over Vecna that day, so the former is slightly less likely (the latter was a joke wagon, so I don't really think there's any protection to read into. She did vote Jamie yesterday, but I don't know that we can read too much into anything that happened D3.

Rom Com - I know I just said not to read into Day 3, but Eden, Snowy, rdr, and Doom were all essential in making that a wagon. Much like in the Chaqascum scenario above, I think scum's a little likelier to be bus-shy after one of them is caught, and Tom definitely didn't need to be sacrificed. There could easily be like one busser there, but I'd look at Jamie and Vecna first, probably. It'd also be useful to look into who pushed the idea N2 that Tom was likely town due to how he nearly got killed. Maybe I'll do that overnight if y'all don't turn around and kill me.

rd - Really not a lot to dig into here. Again, the kgray interactions are awkward, and the Tom vote makes them unlikely teammates. I think specifically a Doom/Tom/rdr team is very unlikely. Scum Doom and rdr both getting on a small Tom wagon while their teammate was leading D2 is weird to think about if just both of them are scum, let alone if all three are.

Doom - Maybe Jamie and kgray. Maybe some of my nonclear townreads. Probably not Tom or rd. Not much to draw on here.

Overall, I think the most plausible looking teams are:
bozo + kgray + 2 (in order of likelihood) of Jamie, rd, Doom (not with rd), Eden (not with Jamie), snowy, Vecna
bozo + Tom + Jamie + Vecna, maybe swapping one of the latter two out with someone else that isn't Doom or kgray
bozo + Jamie + 2 of rd, Doom, Snowy
bozo + Chaqa + Jamie + Doom or Tom
worcej + bona + THB + ghug (best team)

Jamie is in every serious team except the first one where he is the most likely of many candidates for two slots

Yeah I don't think I've been shy about him being my preferred wagon all day. I was hoping to keep Tom credible and maybe spark some fireworks by giving snowy a sizable lead.

##VOTE Jamie

[President Eden]

It's odd how little of a fuck snowy's giving here.

Is it a good or bad sign?

Gut says good sign, snowy has no fakeclaim option worth taking and probably no reason to spew here given that he’s in a lot of POE pools. I’d also expect him to be a little more annoyed at what should FMPOV be a bad play

[President Eden]

**FHPOV

:isthisascumslip:

[Bonatogether]

**FHPOV

:isthisascumslip:

everything is scumslip

[rdrivera2005]

I am back. I don't scumread snowy but I can see why people are voting him.

I just don't see how this game will progress from this point. We just kill all people in the POE while Mafia kill the clears and we hope we are right about POE?

I value the work Ghug did, but do we actually can conclude something out of it or it's just a big incadiation of "what ifs"? I am probably a bit dispirited but I just don't see how to play this thing.

[Chaqa]

I'm extremely confident Doom is town. She did a forgetting the oracle thing I don't see scum faking

Sabi probably too.

[kgray]

I don't think I've ever seen town!ghug put out such a long analysis post.

We can still get him!

I did it repeatedly in the Priest game.

I just scrolled through your ISO that game and it looks like your long posts are rereads/ISOs of players. I didn't see anything like this.

[Chaqa]

I am back. I don't scumread snowy but I can see why people are voting him.

I just don't see how this game will progress from this point. We just kill all people in the POE while Mafia kill the clears and we hope we are right about POE?

I value the work Ghug did, but do we actually can conclude something out of it or it's just a big incadiation of "what ifs"? I am probably a bit dispirited but I just don't see how to play this thing.

We kill people and then re-evaluate every day.

it's pretty meh

[President Eden]

I'm extremely confident Doom is town. She did a forgetting the oracle thing I don't see scum faking

Sabi probably too.

Glad somebody is asking and answering the real questions around here

[ghug]

I am back. I don't scumread snowy but I can see why people are voting him.

I just don't see how this game will progress from this point. We just kill all people in the POE while Mafia kill the clears and we hope we are right about POE?

I value the work Ghug did, but do we actually can conclude something out of it or it's just a big incadiation of "what ifs"? I am probably a bit dispirited but I just don't see how to play this thing.

I'm hoping it's a starting point and that we get one of these POE daykills oracled at some point, or some people do some things that narrow shit down further.

[kgray]

I am back. I don't scumread snowy but I can see why people are voting him.

I just don't see how this game will progress from this point. We just kill all people in the POE while Mafia kill the clears and we hope we are right about POE?

I value the work Ghug did, but do we actually can conclude something out of it or it's just a big incadiation of "what ifs"? I am probably a bit dispirited but I just don't see how to play this thing.

You think you and I have been awkward this game?

[Chaqa]

I'm extremely confident Doom is town. She did a forgetting the oracle thing I don't see scum faking

Sabi probably too.

Glad somebody is asking and answering the real questions around here

I mean, ghug just was saying how he thinks Doom is probScum and I couldn't disagree more