I actually exited the first swell because I thought it weird that it was so big to begin with and worcej was also on it.
Upon reflection, here's how it seems to have gone.
First Wave:
1: bona
2: Flum
(at this point bozo votes Jamiet)
2: rdrivera joins then leaves immediately
3: snowy
3: Bunny joins then leaves immediately
4: Durga
5: Eden
5: Chaqa joins then leaves immediately
6: Jamiet joins and parks for the rest of the day
5: Eden -> worcej
6: worcej
7: kgray
6: Durga -> rdrivera
5: snowy -> kgray
4: Flum -> kgray
4: Jamiet leaves for Chaqa then joins fairly quickly
---lowest point, with kgray (3), worcej (3), Chaqa (2)
5: lfischl
6: Durga (looks really good for this because it pushes for a resurgence, when typically wagons that swell big in the middle die off)
7: Eden (looks really good for this too)
8: Chaqa (call it bias but bus suspect #1)
9: Vecna (potentially bus suspect #2)
8: Durga -> worcej (if you're going to bus why leave here)
7: Eden -> worcej (same, but to play Devil's advocate this or Durga's was an effort to cause that die-off even late)
6: Chaqa -> Tom
7: Durga (locktown imo)
8: Bunny
--- here the Doc claim comes in
7: kgray -> Tom
6: Bunny -> Boat
5: Durga -> worcej
4: worcej -> Tom
--- 4 people still on wagon: bona, Jamiet, lfischl, Vecna
--- here worcej claims Doc
5: kgray
6: Flum
7: Durga
6: kgray -> Tom (????? looks kind of like an instinctual bus that realized there's an alternative)
--- here ghug votes worcej though that was already discussed, but interesting
--- current wagon 7 worcej, 6 Tom, 6 bozo
7: Boat
6: Vecna -> Tom (

--- current wagon 7 Tom 6 bozo 6 worcej
7: Chaqa
--- here I tie the vote 7 bozo-7 Tom, whoops
--- here kgray votes for Tom again
Takeaways:
Durga looks really good, Eden might look good too
I don't think we vote Jamiet today unless we're so sure he commits to a bus at this stage
Vecna looks pretty sus
kgray, ghug don't have great optics either