M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

[snowy801]

I'm killing confirmed scum.

Oracle target on Damo still isnt awful Flum. Better than a miskill.

I would rather it on jasnah than damo

I think I'd prefer to know Jasnah too, especially if bona is cop

[Durga]

Holy shit Tom is in this game

[worcej]

Well worcej seems genuinely excited.

If bona is cop then great, we have at least two. He might not be cop tho?

This is why I am not pushing Chaqa.

I chose not to save Chaqa cause I was highly skeptical that he is the actual cop and was willing to go for people who I thought could actually be the cop.

Actually, that quote is shit, pardon my excitement.

In all honestly, I think Bona was targeted because they think he is the cop ultimately.

I was fairly sure they are going to RB me this phase but there was a chance they wouldn't. Chaqa may have eaten that RB, so honestly he isn't really know. That being said, I expected they would NK someone that's in my camp and I thought it was going to be between kgray, Vecna, and Bona... so I decided to keep one of them alive and try to play chicken with the scumteam.

A smart scum team would not have targeted bona, it would help my case because he's been very adamant about getting the bozo wagon going and strongly anti-bozo. But then again, they were playing with fire regarding me so they decided to go for it and THEY FUCKING FAILED!

[BunnyGo]

I just wanna say that I thought bona was being too normal so clearly I'm a genius.

I KNEW something was off with him. I’ll take it too!

[BunnyGo]

Why am I the only one asking questions lol.

I asked Chaq.

[Chaqa]

@bunny: I tried to scan Kgray but I was roleblocked

[Bonatogether]

I claim that the votes for d2 during the period of flux (EoD2) show that town has not consolidated on any one general POE. Even as late as half an hour out, there was almost no wagon consolidation until it was clear that it was going to be bozo, worcej, and tom. This means that almost no info can be gained from the votes before the consolidation. A central objective of town should be to establish consensus reads and work from there, therefore.

I also claim that Tom was a scum-driven wagon on the basis of the fact that when push came to shove, a majority of the online players moving rushed to bozo. Only snowy, bunny, and kgray moved to Tom, and kgray only after initially moving to bozo. Therefore, Tom is most likely town.

Next, I claim that scum did not push worcej, although they preferred the wagon (but were not tied to it). This is a related claim to my previous one, in that no one online who was on worcej didn't move except for bozo. This singles out flum (voted him early over a weak scumread and very late, and doesn't mention him much); boat man (who had a weak scumread of him at the beginning of the day but then almost never mentions him), and sabi (who only has gut reads against him, despite having not read most of d2 and n1).

Lastly, I claim that the bozo wagon was town driven as well, although scum could easily have hidden on it. Bozo was almost never anyone's first choice for the dk, but was generally a consensus 2nd place who accordioned up and down throughout the whole day. There is no reason that scum could not also have made that argument, so I don't have any ideas about how many scum were on the bozo wagon.

Ok, gonna just jump ahead to the conclusion section->
It seems like quite a few players like that we didn't end up killing the doctor claimant. So why does that make Tom a scum-driven wagon? Our two doctors, because of the claim, are probably gonna to be hanged at some point. It makes sense to me, as town, if you don't want to kill one of the doctors right now, to instead go for the biggest wagon there is. Or is the argument that tom being the biggest non-doctor wagon is scum indicative? Saying people rushed to Bozo, instead of Tom, so tom must be town, doesn't really make sense to me.

The WorceJ argument, meanwhile, seems to be the exact opposite? players on WorceJ jumped off after the doctor claim, therefore because they jumped off they must be town... but wouldn't mafia be fine jumping off, because the two claims means town sorta has to hang both? Both claimants in the moment look scummy. If WorceJ is scum, Mafia jump off because they don't want to kill teammate & have an excuse with doctor claim (I guess they don't know WorceJ would claim, but... why wouldn't WorceJ claim if scum?). If WorceJ is town, Mafia jump off because the CC means we have to consider killing both WorceJ and Bozo at some point, so why bother killing now?

And wouldn't a second choice wagon be great for Scum players? They don't have to be out in the lead arguing anything about why they're voting where they're voting. They can just say "Well, I don't love this wagon, but I guess w/e" and be pretty sure no one would notice either way, while also not throwing too much pressure on the person they're voting for if they are scum, and if htey're not, they're still happy to vote for an enemy. I know I basically literally said "Well, I don't love this wagon, but I guess w/e", with my Tom vote, but I mean, it IS something I could see scum doing.

Am I just totally off here? If I'm wrong, just quote this with "No". If I'm right, "Yes". TY :)

Sort of. I sound incoherent but I think I'm right.

Re: tom wagon:
1. worcej vs bozo being TvT is negligible odds
2. worcej vs bozo being SvS is negligible odds
3l one of worcej or bozo being scum (TvS) has two possible responses, both of which I have seen, with varying degrees of success:
a) wagon town hard to hopefully replace one of the wagons. This is the more conventional strategy
b) wagon scum softly in order to siphon votes from the main wagons, hopefully more from town (brainbomb my beloved <3)
Since people were pushing tom pretty hard (enough for him to tie the lead wagon at several points), and since a) is the more common strategy by far, I think that tom is town.

Re: worcej wagon:
This follows from my argument for the tom wagon on presumption that worcej is town and bozo is scum. Scum, then, prefer a worcej vote to a bozo vote. I list the people who would fit a scum profile on this wagon. Also, 'Both claimants in the moment look scummy' is rather misleading. Bozo looked much worse than worcej at EoD.

re: bozo wagon:
Yeah, the bozo wagon would be a great place for scum to be on. I said this in my post.

This post has taken me forever to make, I might take a nap.

[Bonatogether]

I WAS ATTACKED BUT SAVED

LET'S GO

[snowy801]

Why am I the only one asking questions lol.

If bona can confirm he's been saved it more or less confirms it, no?

Do you think it can be both of them?

[President Eden]

Your presence would be appreciated for a fair bit longer Bona

[snowy801]

I WAS ATTACKED BUT SAVED

LET'S GO

fuck yeah bona

[BesharamSabi]

What is RB?

[Durga]

Bona you need to role reveal, I think

[BesharamSabi]

I WAS ATTACKED BUT SAVED

LET'S GO

Another theory that this is scum theater by worcej and Bona to fake this whole thing

[snowy801]

What is RB?

roleblocked

[Tom Bombadil]

Not to go too far off the deep end, but worcej could still be scum, right? Like he would know who scum targeted and thus could claim the save since we won’t technically know bozos alignment when we flip him?

But I suppose that’s a problem if worcej is alive which seems unlikely.

Anyhoo - I like the idea of non bozo wagons to Oracle. PE/snowy/kgray seem nice

[Durga]

What is RB?

roleblock

[Bonatogether]

Bona you need to role reveal, I think

i'm vt

[Fluminator]

Chaqa is still cop.
Bozo is confirmed scum.
Worcej did very well and confirmed town, I'm proud.
Bona is confirmed town.

With that info, let's catch a new scum for oracle or JOAT dead cop.

[snowy801]

I WAS ATTACKED BUT SAVED

LET'S GO

Another theory that this is scum theater by worcej and Bona to fake this whole thing

If that's what's happening here they deserve victory