M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

[ghug]

Eden vs Jamiet

Go
Go
Go

Setting aside the absurdity of the premise, how have you reached the conclusion that you could possibly win this?

[lfischl]

Oh my, a wild lfischl appears. Hi there

hi

You told ghug last night that you'll likely have something for us my this morning. Whatcha got?

I think there is probably 1 scum in between bozo eden and jamie. I don't understand why jamie is pushing a vote for himself or eden which could easily get him voted out?

[Doom427]

Final thing before retiring for night a little bit

Saying Jasnah can't claim if scum b/c that goes against her win condition is stupid.
Jasnah is Miller? If she's playing her win condition she says the cc is full of shit.
Jasnah is a PR that isn't Miller? She tries to defend herself, a little, so she can survive a Single Damn Night.
She's VT? She retracts and says she's VT before death. At least once? Jesus.
Are do only Mafia play to win, and Townies play to lose?

[snowy801]

hi

You told ghug last night that you'll likely have something for us my this morning. Whatcha got?

I think there is probably 1 scum in between bozo eden and jamie. I don't understand why jamie is pushing a vote for himself or eden which could easily get him voted out?

What makes you think there's a scum in there? Who do you think it is, Jamie? Why do I have to ask these questions every time guys come on

[kgray]

You are the single most galactic brain player I've ever seen in my life, and your conclusion is that damo was cop and Jamiet is scum?

I do think there is a good chance damo was the cop, that the mafia knew he was the cop, and that Chaqa is scum counting on damo being the cop.

Also, yes, Jamie is one of my top scum suspects.

That simply is not how I play mafia (the alignment).

Ask anyone who has ever been on a team with me.

I kill people who have good reads and high post counts

I specifically leave players like Damo or Jamie or Brain alive who I feel can be manipulated and cause distractions

This isn't accurate - you often push high-risk, crazy wifom plays as scum.

[Bonatogether]

I mean, I get sorting town and non-town. I don't get having everyone say on a player a lot of people think are Town to say "Town or not Town". Do that to players people think are Scum. We don't need to play survey says on safe players, because if everyone agree they're obviously town, that's a solid Mafia shot.

My actual read was Bozo didn't take initiative on those things (Actually, I might be slightly off there on the Damo comment thread), not the doing of them.

also, I'm begining to doubt a lot of my analysis that relies on this being a no-flip game, because, well, I'm starting to doubt the Mafia would change their gameplay for it. It doesn't really seem like town is changing their priors much, so...

It's useful to be at least somewhat wary of the consensus town, in case one scum goes deep, since those are usually the scum who win the game.

Alrighty

How do you approach this in a different way? It's hard to envision a fundamentally new way of scumhunting. Obviously VCA is somewhat bunk, but analyzing how and when people move, along with what they say, is still a viable strategy. Figuring out how people flip is also a difficulty, but they're probably scum, or at least not clearly town, if we're voting them out. Consolidation of the 'possible scum' in a smaller and smaller pool is the name of the game here.

[Bonatogether]

hi

You told ghug last night that you'll likely have something for us my this morning. Whatcha got?

I think there is probably 1 scum in between bozo eden and jamie. I don't understand why jamie is pushing a vote for himself or eden which could easily get him voted out?

What is your reasoning for 1 scum in bozo/eden/jamie?

[DemonRHK]

​Completely Fallible Human Yet GM Vote Count Day Two The First
(Through post 3967)

snowy801(6) - Vecna*, Durga, kgray, worcej, Chaqa, TheFlyingBoat
bozotheclown(3) - Bonatogether, Fluminator, Snowy801
Jamiet99uk(2) - bozotheclown, BunnyGo
President Eden(2) - Doom427, Jamiet99uk*
worcej(1) - President Eden
kgray(1) - ghug
Vecna(1) - lfischl

Unvote(1) - rdrivera2005
Not Voted(2) - BesharamSabi, Tom Bombadil

Currently, SNOWY801 is set to be killed.

20.5 Hours remain in Day 2.

[kgray]

Skipping the bozo part one of the most reliable ways to scum hunt is to set aside the townies first

Definitely a core part of what you should be considering when looking at the game

I was pretty sure someone will answer it before me.

Do you think this a town newbie take or just a way to justify a later vote as scum?

Doom's struck me as consistently towny so far. If you have anything on her though I'd be keen to hear it

Weird way to avoid answering the question.

[BunnyGo]

Wonder if PE vs. Jamiet is scum theatre

I promise it isn't.

Who do you think is faking?

I says it'd clearly PE.

Vote one of us, go on

Sigh…..##vote bozo

[BunnyGo]

##vote bona

[Bonatogether]

##vote bona

Why are you doing these weird 'vote for one person, then switch to another immediately after' things?

[ghug]

I do not think it would be a bad use of the oracle if there is not a cop CC, because in that case finding out damo's role does tell us the alignment of someone whose alignment we don't know (Chaqa), and probably a second as well (Fluminator if damo was not the cop, PE if damo was the cop). I think it is a better alternative to eventually DKing Chaqa despite no cop CC and never knowing who was the real cop.

This assumes there isn't another cop out there.

Yes, that is why I said if there is not a cop CC.

It sucks if there's a cop waiting to CC and we waste other PRs though

[snowy801]

I was pretty sure someone will answer it before me.

Do you think this a town newbie take or just a way to justify a later vote as scum?

Doom's struck me as consistently towny so far. If you have anything on her though I'd be keen to hear it

Weird way to avoid answering the question.

I'm kinda getting sick of your shit. Are you illiterate? Do you not understand implications, that I must spell literally everything out for you?

[kgray]

Doom's struck me as consistently towny so far. If you have anything on her though I'd be keen to hear it

Weird way to avoid answering the question.

I'm kinda getting sick of your shit. Are you illiterate? Do you not understand implications, that I must spell literally everything out for you?

Yeah I actually can't read at all. It'd help if you could attach a link of an audio recording of your posts so I can understand what you're talking about. Thanks in advance.

[rdrivera2005]

Skipping the bozo part one of the most reliable ways to scum hunt is to set aside the townies first

Definitely a core part of what you should be considering when looking at the game

I was pretty sure someone will answer it before me.

Do you think this a town newbie take or just a way to justify a later vote as scum?

Doom's struck me as consistently towny so far. If you have anything on her though I'd be keen to hear it

No, I have her as towny. But I want to hear your take on her as you are still the main wagon by far.

[BunnyGo]

A game this size shouldn't be no flip. Scum hunting is less exciting when you don't get instant gratification.

This is an example of setup complaining that I find alignment indicative

Did it come before or after you said that?

[ghug]

Since everyone is acting like this is endgame (side effect of no flip? People doing it seems towny enough) let me explain to you what I think is happening.

1) I think Jasnah was town. I admit it is reasonably possible that she was not, but a) it makes no fucking sense and b) I looked at who wanted her out [more on this later]

2) Chaqa is almost certainly scum. Honestly didn't particularly scum read him on day 1, but his subsequent actions and responses make it very blatant that he is not. It is tremendously difficult for me to see how you observe both the manner in which he claimed, unclaimed and reclaimed (yes, sure a real cop would also do that as wifom), as well as the conversation he and Eden held on the matter of crumbs (he meant to do his 7th post, but forgot, then got lucky that Flum posted and did it on page 7 instead? I was hoping to parse some reactions to this idiocy for some clear tells but nobody ever bites on the good shit). There's not a universe where that is a genuine action.

More than anything, the chance that we arbitrarily top wagon'd the cop D1 vs. we got lucky on a scum catch who was then forced to claim to save himself, as there is no cost for scum to do so (except the wasted RBs I guess, but unless you're going to hook/kill early RBs just create pseudo-clears anyway). I wish damo were here to do the math for me here but honestly it is not worth considering.

3) damo is very likely not the cop. I thought he might be, but upon reflection he hid his doctoriness quite well in item-madness so why would he not be so capable here? He strikes me as a VT taking one for the team by faking crumbs as VT, which is appreciated especially as that's something I'd never do. I was still kind of on the fence, but subsequent discussion on the matter sold me on the subject - 99% VT.

Therefore another cop exists, and so there is no urgency to vote out Chaqa. I have been considering discussing appropriate timings for outing but it seems unnecessary at this time.

4) Appropos of nothing, worcej is so very obviously scum. I don't know what kgray and bona are smoking.

5) Flum I'm less sure about. I have contemplated whether it's just the ego speaking, but it did not escape my notice that EoD1 is a time of great chaos when Chaqa claimed, and I was stroking the fire to renew his wagon. Ordinarily one might conclude that a fake claiming cop directs their target to town to pocket/just be true, but in the world of no-flip I am not so certain.

That all said, I'm not quite so sold on Flum so I could just be wrong. Hard to read, our Fluminator, and he's not much of a biter it seems.

6) Doom, Eden, Vecna, TFB, Sabi, kgray, Jamiet, ghug, bona all very clearly town, so our candidate pool is quite small indeed.

Durga and rdrivera are probably town too, and who knows what people are smoking about lfischl, but assuming there's merit it just leaves mostly bozo, Tom, Fluminator, worcej, Chaqa to draw from (+/- my misreading people, which I imagine is possible).

I'd guess if I misread someone it'd be TFB/ghug but I don't think so

The problem then is that the scum ratio in this game is quite low already, and we've written off a goodly number of them from the voting pool already (1-2), so we've got people grasping at shadows and endlessly clashing TvT based on ego and rampant suspicion.

The chain of logic is inexorable. I imagine I'll have to expand on 2) Chaqa is scum quite a number of times. I know most of you aren't all that mathematically minded but the evidence is multifaceted and I invite you all to revisit it thoroughly. It's pretty obvious.

If you take away nothing else from this I'd say stop getting into random TvT battles because you don't like each other. Hey

Hey I like kgray a lot. But she's scum.

[snowy801]

I was pretty sure someone will answer it before me.

Do you think this a town newbie take or just a way to justify a later vote as scum?

Doom's struck me as consistently towny so far. If you have anything on her though I'd be keen to hear it

No, I have her as towny. But I want to hear your take on her as you are still the main wagon by far.

I've got nothing off the top of my head. I set her aside as obvtown on D1 and haven't seen anything to contradict it

I'd tell you ask anything specific as I'm not going to go digging, but I'd say that's probably a waste of effort. Still, do as you'd like

[rdrivera2005]

I was pretty sure someone will answer it before me.

Do you think this a town newbie take or just a way to justify a later vote as scum?

Doom's struck me as consistently towny so far. If you have anything on her though I'd be keen to hear it

Weird way to avoid answering the question.

I think he answered. He said she was consistently townie which implies it's a townie newbie take (which I agree).