M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

[Doom427]

Ah yes Chaqa, let's use the oracle to figure out one is a VT and the other is Miller. Fucking brilliant. Not.

God if this were discord I'd be giving this every heart react, the rocket react, the this react, basically any positive react I can possibly find.

TFB was -really- invested into the jasnah thing. Like, I get it, the VT thing is very likely - but how is there not even the slightest worry that it could be a simple scum gambit? Like, this style of posting accounts for no %points of that possiblity whatsoever. Which almost just feels like a....scary take?

Even despite my previous TFB quote I think he's more likely town, but the level of absolution and dedication is very high here.

Can we still not get any consolidation between worcej and Chaqa voters?

This sure came out of nowhere.....checking trajectory as well.

Yikes, bozo's entire iso is just replying to people. He states he thought Jasnah was competent in previous games and thus wouldnt claim miller as scum. Doesnt talk about the retract. Doesnt talk about any reasons for the other wagons just that he prefers worcej over Chaqa at a point that Worcej is much much higher in the votecount.

Cause for suspicion if Seren was scum.

Yes, you heard that right. I think theres a very reasonable chance she was scum. The way how this entire progression happened, its a mix with people that show genuine town concern over Jasnah just doing what she did, and a few people that were trying to dissuade the wagon with way too black and white views.

Want to zero in on this right here: hardcore defenses of Jansah I can only really understand as being both scum, or just liking her a lot and wanting her in the game. (Yes, I know the complaints to not kill a VT, but the defensive behavior struck me as less "I disagree she's scum" and more "Please please please somehow get me out of this shit show) I agree there's a good chance she was scum (no, this doesn't fit my PE theory, I contain multitudes), and the hard defenses of her back then only make me more solid in that theory.

[Vecna]

The only reason I see to keep Chaqa alive is to screw a bit with scum RB. If Chaqa is town they will need to keep RBing him and if he is scum they will either RB the NK target or not RB.

How is everyone so convinced Chaqa is not the cop? Why do you think this is the only reason to keep him alive? Is there a cop claim I somehow overlooked? This is a bit lazy from you rdr

Claiming to save your neck is sus as hell.
If he is the Cop scum will keep RBing him forever so it's a useless Cop.l and people will keep discuss forever. The RB thing is the only net positive outcome of keeping him alive.

This said, I am starting to think his claim might be true.

Other quick takes. Ghug is probably town and Kgray is probably scum.

Care to talk about the Kgray read? im intrigued

[Vecna]

I had another thought.

I haven't played with snowy in years but I remember him being more rude, angry, and "I'm clearly right why aren't you listening to me". Like I feel like he folded on the damo!cop discussion really easily and it feels weird. Can anyone confirm what his last webdip game was like

You are right. Snowy usually think he is wasting his brilliant God like takes with us mere mortals and made it very clear.

Im glad to see Rdrivera and Durga are also seeing it

[Jamiet99uk]

Also, what is this weird justification?

I feel like TFB has been a little too careful about all his reads/votes this game.

Chaqa had claimed cop just before this. What's weird about TheFlyingBurrito mentioning that?

I just think he’s being very careful to lay out his motivations and it seems like he’s overly cautious about getting caught in an inconsistency. He’s also basing reads on whether or not people change their own reads/votes. I think town is generally more fluid and scum more stiff, and he doesn’t seem very natural to me.

I don't see what's unnatural about moving your vote off someone when that someone has just loudly claimed PR.

[kgray]

Yeah I did like that, but he's no longer the sort of player we can dismiss as unable to fake emotion.

It's the timing that makes me thing it's unlikely to come from scum, not the emotion. Nobody is actually afraid of getting DK'd 5 hours into the game. Way more likely that town is irritated that people are already declaring them scum and reacting out of frustration than scum is panicking that they're under pressure of being found out.

Unless Chaqa is frustrated that Vecna is his teammate, maybe.

Im trying not to spam the thread with old shit and will format stuff into one post for most, but this thing does stand out to me from the period leading upto EoD 1.

So this post was made by Kgray, but then later on she voted for Chaqa for very long stretches of time (just before switching to Seren who she had been defending all day iirc?) - and now she is back to voting Chaqa.

Kgray, can you describe your trajectory a bit better to me?

But, more importantly, do you really figure I would have made that giant history post on Chaqa if I was his scummate here? Detailing all his reactions to getting scumread in previous games for both alignments?

(its still interesting to me how noone reacted well to that, but now apparently chaqa is backed into a corner after all, and doing all kinds of crazy stuff).

I will try but I think I will be mostly rehashing what I’ve already said.

Chaqa, as scum, has been on the block a lot. Not saying he isn’t good at it, just that he’s played so much that it happens. And he has also been on the block a lot without actually being the kill. In fact, I remember him bragging in scumchat about how he’s good at weaseling his way out of a DK.

I therefore do not think it makes a lot of sense for scum!Chaqa to panic about gaining suspicion as early into the game (and the phase in particular, given more wagons were bound to pop up). He is experienced enough to have been in much more dire positions before and would have zero reason to believe he was actually caught that early.

So, I thought it was much more likely he was frustrated because you were wrong about him than scared that you were right. The thought also crossed my mind that he could have been frustrated as scum if you were his teammate and he didn’t approve of you busing him. It could also have been frustration at someone else who was less vocal about bussing him.

I don’t think it’s extremely likely that you are his teammate given your digging through his history, no. I remember thinking about the time when you fooled me in that mini game because you were “solving” so much, but that felt more like carefully agreeing with “good points” and bringing up counter arguments and I don’t remember you digging that much into any one read. Of course I think it’s possible that you’re his teammate who knows town doesn’t listen to those arguments very much, but I don’t think it’s likely.

After that exchange there were points brought up that lead to scum!Chaqa reads but the early emotion he displayed kept me from agreeing with a scumread. But suspicion was growing and then I found something I thought was more convincing that that display of emotion.

I initially believed his cop claim, but apparently that was a heat-of-the-moment thing because I no longer do. He just didn’t seem genuine in the way he said “if jasnah can fake claim, so can I” and he’s for sure not a VT. I was also expecting him to immediate reclaim cop and admit he took it back briefly for wifom, and he didn’t do that but claimed the RB. I don’t think he’s the cop so I think he’s scum.

[Vecna]

God if this were discord I'd be giving this every heart react, the rocket react, the this react, basically any positive react I can possibly find.

TFB was -really- invested into the jasnah thing. Like, I get it, the VT thing is very likely - but how is there not even the slightest worry that it could be a simple scum gambit? Like, this style of posting accounts for no %points of that possiblity whatsoever. Which almost just feels like a....scary take?

Even despite my previous TFB quote I think he's more likely town, but the level of absolution and dedication is very high here.

Can we still not get any consolidation between worcej and Chaqa voters?

This sure came out of nowhere.....checking trajectory as well.

Yikes, bozo's entire iso is just replying to people. He states he thought Jasnah was competent in previous games and thus wouldnt claim miller as scum. Doesnt talk about the retract. Doesnt talk about any reasons for the other wagons just that he prefers worcej over Chaqa at a point that Worcej is much much higher in the votecount.

Cause for suspicion if Seren was scum.

Yes, you heard that right. I think theres a very reasonable chance she was scum. The way how this entire progression happened, its a mix with people that show genuine town concern over Jasnah just doing what she did, and a few people that were trying to dissuade the wagon with way too black and white views.

Want to zero in on this right here: hardcore defenses of Jansah I can only really understand as being both scum, or just liking her a lot and wanting her in the game. (Yes, I know the complaints to not kill a VT, but the defensive behavior struck me as less "I disagree she's scum" and more "Please please please somehow get me out of this shit show) I agree there's a good chance she was scum (no, this doesn't fit my PE theory, I contain multitudes), and the hard defenses of her back then only make me more solid in that theory.

Hardcore defenses are basically the argument that was used against chaqa, right?

Either you have knowledge about her alignment, in which case hitting the nuances in the discussion becomes difficult. I wont fall into the trap of saying everyone should approach it like me, but somewhere I find it a little hard to fathom that such a large group of townies would view this so black and white, and would not account even for a slight possibility that they mightve been getting punked. Im fully accounting for at least a few people doing that, and in some cases it came off reasonably believable. I could totally see TFB do it as either allignment, being very certain of his own correctness, or doing the brutal powerscum playstyle thinking he could overpower public opinion.

This might work regardless of her being town or scum. Scum could try to white-knight the slot hard as well, in case it gets dug up later.

I dont really think the personal relational aspect played a big role, and that was not part of my argument.

[kgray]

This said, I am starting to think his claim might be true.

Other quick takes. Ghug is probably town and Kgray is probably scum.

Why why and why?

[kgray]

What questions have I dodged Sabi? I responded to kgray's question after she pointed it out to me. There's a major difference between not seeing a question and not responding to the question. And what you have said is a massive cherrypick of what she said. She herself said she didn't have a strong scum read on me. And claiming I am not present is pretty laughable given how active I have been on the actual substantive discussions that we've had. If you scroll back to the beginning hours I was one of the loudest voices for early miller calls and for day kills starting D1. I was engaged in other discussions about mechs early as well and also have been very very vocal in picking fights on the jasnah is VT/Bunny is Miller front.

This post from TFB is very interesting. It ticks a lot of the boxes of high operating scum. The defense is flawless, but it instantly recalls all the things that the slot has done this game that can put it in a good light. This could be indication of scum puffing up their "resume" of things they put effort into to look good. Town is generally much more unaware of the good/bad and more inclined to feel that people should just see it, instead of dueling with their "achievements".

Especially of interest, since people mentioned that TFB is a similar'ish person to balki?

Yeah so this is what I've been trying to say about TFB. Vecna, maybe you should be my spokesperson since Rivera thinks I'm scum.

Also I think Durga said Eden is similar to Balki.

[Vecna]

Thanks for the reply Kgray.

Sadly, the stupid pattern recognization thingy in my brain is telling me really hard that scum just killed Damo over the Obv-town PE part just to nail Chaqa into the ground and potentially have us fight over whether he was scum and damo was the real cop to have us trust PE.

Actually, I guess that works both ways.

But, in the event of Chaqa being scum, itd also mean he'd now be pretty nervous since theyd have no real way of knowing whether they were correct.

In any event. its time for chaqa to claim. If he's town then scum know he's the cop regardless, and if we let him live he'll be roleblocked untill we get suspicious enough anyway.

If he's scum he will just have to take that gamble that they were wrong and gave us the present of nightkilling damo.

[Jamiet99uk]

Thanks for the reply Kgray.

Sadly, the stupid pattern recognization thingy in my brain is telling me really hard that scum just killed Damo over the Obv-town PE part just to nail Chaqa into the ground and potentially have us fight over whether he was scum and damo was the real cop to have us trust PE.

Actually, I guess that works both ways.

But, in the event of Chaqa being scum, itd also mean he'd now be pretty nervous since theyd have no real way of knowing whether they were correct.

In any event. its time for chaqa to claim. If he's town then scum know he's the cop regardless, and if we let him live he'll be roleblocked untill we get suspicious enough anyway.

If he's scum he will just have to take that gamble that they were wrong and gave us the present of nightkilling damo.

Chaqa has claimed, what are you on about?

[kgray]

im actually genuinely surprised that any of the people that played the previous games with snowy arent commenting on how this is basically the diet version of a snowy-light.

No leadership.

No deductions, crossing people off the list. No town and scumhunting. Theres questions. No process leading from answers to interpretations.

I think this slot is scum, and suffering from having an amazing towngame that is impossible to fake & reproduce.

I've said this, sort of

[Vecna]

im actually genuinely surprised that any of the people that played the previous games with snowy arent commenting on how this is basically the diet version of a snowy-light.

No leadership.

No deductions, crossing people off the list. No town and scumhunting. Theres questions. No process leading from answers to interpretations.

I think this slot is scum, and suffering from having an amazing towngame that is impossible to fake & reproduce.

I've said this, sort of

I skipped like 60-70 pages of night-chat. This game moves too quickly even for me, and reading all that takes me more time than im willing to invest atm.

Maybe at some point in the future, but for now im pretty ok with my thoughts, even though its highly possible theyre very far from the truth.

[kgray]

Chaqa had claimed cop just before this. What's weird about TheFlyingBurrito mentioning that?

I just think he’s being very careful to lay out his motivations and it seems like he’s overly cautious about getting caught in an inconsistency. He’s also basing reads on whether or not people change their own reads/votes. I think town is generally more fluid and scum more stiff, and he doesn’t seem very natural to me.

I don't see what's unnatural about moving your vote off someone when that someone has just loudly claimed PR.

It was the way he explicitly said "can't kill the cop." Like, duh. Everyone was moving off of Chaqa for that reason. There was no reason to feel like he had to justify not voting Chaqa.

[Durga]

Did Ghug ever retract his claim BTW or are we treating him as clear?

I don't understand this. Why would you even say this seriously

[Durga]

I liked tfb's reads I thought it was a good assessment of the game state

[Durga]

The only reason I see to keep Chaqa alive is to screw a bit with scum RB. If Chaqa is town they will need to keep RBing him and if he is scum they will either RB the NK target or not RB.

How is everyone so convinced Chaqa is not the cop? Why do you think this is the only reason to keep him alive? Is there a cop claim I somehow overlooked? This is a bit lazy from you rdr

Claiming to save your neck is sus as hell.
If he is the Cop scum will keep RBing him forever so it's a useless Cop.l and people will keep discuss forever. The RB thing is the only net positive outcome of keeping him alive.

This said, I am starting to think his claim might be true.

Other quick takes. Ghug is probably town and Kgray is probably scum.

Why is his cop claim probably true? And why would we daykill him for being useless if he might be clear town?

Please explain ghug and kgray reads

[kgray]

I'd just like for everyone who keeps shading me to explain why in a sentence that doesn't include the word "worcej." I'm so sick of these weak scumreads for no good reason.

[snowy801]

Thanks for the reply Kgray.

Sadly, the stupid pattern recognization thingy in my brain is telling me really hard that scum just killed Damo over the Obv-town PE part just to nail Chaqa into the ground and potentially have us fight over whether he was scum and damo was the real cop to have us trust PE.

Actually, I guess that works both ways.

But, in the event of Chaqa being scum, itd also mean he'd now be pretty nervous since theyd have no real way of knowing whether they were correct.

In any event. its time for chaqa to claim. If he's town then scum know he's the cop regardless, and if we let him live he'll be roleblocked untill we get suspicious enough anyway.

If he's scum he will just have to take that gamble that they were wrong and gave us the present of nightkilling damo.

viewtopic.php?p=259531#p259531

[kgray]

How is everyone so convinced Chaqa is not the cop? Why do you think this is the only reason to keep him alive? Is there a cop claim I somehow overlooked? This is a bit lazy from you rdr

Claiming to save your neck is sus as hell.
If he is the Cop scum will keep RBing him forever so it's a useless Cop.l and people will keep discuss forever. The RB thing is the only net positive outcome of keeping him alive.

This said, I am starting to think his claim might be true.

Other quick takes. Ghug is probably town and Kgray is probably scum.

Why is his cop claim probably true? And why would we daykill him for being useless if he might be clear town?

Please explain ghug and kgray reads

Wow it's almost like you're not actually seeing things that differently from me.

[Jamiet99uk]

I just think he’s being very careful to lay out his motivations and it seems like he’s overly cautious about getting caught in an inconsistency. He’s also basing reads on whether or not people change their own reads/votes. I think town is generally more fluid and scum more stiff, and he doesn’t seem very natural to me.

I don't see what's unnatural about moving your vote off someone when that someone has just loudly claimed PR.

It was the way he explicitly said "can't kill the cop." Like, duh. Everyone was moving off of Chaqa for that reason. There was no reason to feel like he had to justify not voting Chaqa.

I simply don't see how that can be scum indicative.