MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

[BismarckAlive]

Sorry I have been offline the whole time since before EOD. I am a teacher, and my new term started this morning Australia time. ie it is like 7am? here when EOD/EON adjudicaton is 5pm whereever webDip is based. Still sleeping then...and a whole day of teaching, then after work preparation, then home chores, and now it is 10:15pm here.

My theories were only that - theories! It is interesting that following D3 Vecna (followed by others) believe I am the tracker. I only wish my role was that interesting! Mostly I have been read as null/slightly scum, likely because I have tried time and again to guess who everyone is and put aliases to the Town PRs and the Mafia and the SK. Looks like my theory had some mixed results though, as I read the last 12 pages of posts.

Wow has Town been lucky! First Teacher2, now Foxcastle had close shaves with votes a second or two after EOD not being counted. And I think what happened overall is ripe for deep analysis so we can arrive at the correct lynchpool. Since the score is now 7:2 in favour of Town, the right target for JOAT (as well as clear path for the true Tracker if I am the target tonight!) will be key tonight, as all 3 kills happen at same time and there is no Roleblocker.

So here I contribute my current lynchpool (in no particular order), and I simply hope my theories (which by the way did lead me today to vote for Foxcastle) are honing in correctly despite several forks in the road with BB, Jamiet and Yav:

Squiggs - always thought the MODS' reluctance to Modkill Demon was strange.
Flash
Bozo
RdRivera

Aim well, Mr JOAT! One is Mafia, One is SK, and the others are Town (one is the Tracker unfortunately!) and Worcej I have to think about some more, as he has always been on my scum meter (as on others') despite his protestations.

I will stay online for as long as my tired eyes and mind keep me up.

[damo666]

Remind me Bismarck - why did Vecna make you out to be Tracker?

[Vecna]

Grmbl, those tracker results can be important people.

I might be shooting someone that you cleared or w/e.

[damo666]

I have gone throught the voting and individual posts for the umpteenth time and am pretty sure the following are my fellow townmates:

Worcej
Bozo
Bismarck
Squiggs

So, assuming Vecna and Peter are not fake claiming this leaves:

Flash
Rdrivera

Of these I guess Flash is scum and Rdr SK. Therefore if somehow both survive the night I suggest we must lynch Rdr.

[Vecna]

Maybe fox calling out Squigs in the way he did was an indication that they tried to kill him and they found out he is the SK?

[Vecna]

Also, just going over the votecounts, its quite possible that either Rdrivera or Bozo are the last scum.

Bozo and Fox did not vote for eachother untill the very last minute, where both of them suddenly jumped on eachother. Neither of them were voting for the other obvious wagon untill it became clear they were both gonna be up there. Quite high SvS potential.

Rdrivera was voting for Fox and Teacon all of D1 and D2 and D4. Dont really remember a whole lot of him pushing for either of them very hard, but he's been voting scum the entire game except for d3. Rather suspicious.

[worcej]

Maybe fox calling out Squigs in the way he did was an indication that they tried to kill him and they found out he is the SK?

I personally doubt it, considering SK is never on mafia's side.

[Vecna]

Yeah either way its just wifom. I totally see fox yelling that at a deep undercover teammate as well. Wouldve been a really weird bus on the part of squig though.

[damo666]

I just think it was a wild desperate last minute attempt by Fox to confuse us. Best ignored imo.

[flash2015]

I am not going to be online much for the rest of N4, and I will not be able to be on at EON, so I am giving my reads now. The list of possible scum is getting short.

flash: top scum suspect. flash started D4 trying to get a wagon going on Squigs and voted for Squigs most of the day, but after saying he reread Bismarck, he voted for Bismarck even though Squigs was the only one voting for Bismarck. Perhaps he figured out Bismarck's role. When Squigs changed his vote to me, flash followed, but first tried to get Squigs to go back to Bismarck. His vote for me put me ahead of Foxcastle. When voting for me, he said Vecna should be lynched next if I flip town. It looks like he might have been trying to deflect blame for my lynch knowing I would flip town. When Foxcastle comes back on at EOD, it appears flash tried to signal Foxcastle a few times. Particularly suspicious is this post:

If you go to vecna fox I will follow. Otherwise choose bozo

Vecna already had two votes, and flash knew two more votes could get the unCCed JOAT lynched. After this post, Foxcastle voted for flash for a short time before voting for me. Foxcastle knew how bad flash's post looked, and we know Foxcastle likes to bus. The indication that flash expected Foxcastle to listen to him looks very suspicious.

worcej: possible scum. Foxcastle and worcej could have been bussing each other. I am interesting in hearing more from Bismarck about this statement:

I think if the EOD wagons are only Worcej and Foxcastle, either death will be good for Town.

damo: possible scum. We know the last scum is the roleblocker, and I doubt the roleblocker used the RB N2. If the scum were going to risk getting the roleblocker tracked, I believe they would have used the RB and NK on peter to take out a confirmed town and useful PR.

Squigs: possible scum. He could have also been bussing teacher.

rdrivera: possible scum. Good at hiding as scum.

Five out of nine? That isn't a very short scum list. /s

OK, I see I need to give more explanation. As I said above I was testing out Squigs first, seeing how he would react...as I had come to the conclusion Mafia either joined the teacher wagon late OR it had to be someone that voted for teacher.

Given that Squigs hadn't given me anything to go on and given that no-one else had any suspicion of him, I decided I should move. As there was no wagon on damo or Vecna, I decided to join the one on Bismarck as that made sense...and I was now trusting Squiggs. When Squiggs jumped to Bozo, again that was the only wagon that made sense to me, even though I didn't particularly trust Vecna.

When it came down to the final minutes, the votes were tied between you and Fox...and I was seriously concerned that the final vote could be a tie. As peter was leading the Vecna wagon (I trusted Peter), I reached out to him for guidance given that the Vecna wagon wasn't likely to happen currently. Since Peter wasn't going to do anything, I reached out to Fox as he was the only other person active (who I wasn't at all scumreading at the time). Given that I still didn't trust Vecna's claim at the time, I didn't care which way the lynch went as long as we lynched either you or Vecna. Of course given what I know now, I can't see how I can in any way justify not trusting Vecna's JOAT claim, so I will have to assume he is telling the truth. Note that during the last few minutes of the turn I was only on mobile so I could not go back and verify Vecna's reasoning. I finally did that when I got home about 2 hours after the day ended. I sent out my first longer post not long after that.

I don't know how to read you. At this point if we both survive tonight, I don't have further information and another wagon forms on you I probably will join it. I read your ignoring of Vecna's vote on you (you didn't even ask him for reasoning) and your "look over there" posts pointing fingers in all directions (especially me and Squigs) as a desperate attempt at self-preservation...suggesting potential scum (or more likely now - SK) motivation. But I was reading the same thing from Jamie D3 and look how that turned out. So there definitely is a possibility that you are VT just like me. Whatever happens, if you go, I go or we both go I will be interested to see how things turn out this evening.

[flash2015]

I am not going to be online much for the rest of N4, and I will not be able to be on at EON, so I am giving my reads now. The list of possible scum is getting short.

flash: top scum suspect. flash started D4 trying to get a wagon going on Squigs and voted for Squigs most of the day, but after saying he reread Bismarck, he voted for Bismarck even though Squigs was the only one voting for Bismarck. Perhaps he figured out Bismarck's role. When Squigs changed his vote to me, flash followed, but first tried to get Squigs to go back to Bismarck. His vote for me put me ahead of Foxcastle. When voting for me, he said Vecna should be lynched next if I flip town. It looks like he might have been trying to deflect blame for my lynch knowing I would flip town. When Foxcastle comes back on at EOD, it appears flash tried to signal Foxcastle a few times. Particularly suspicious is this post:

If you go to vecna fox I will follow. Otherwise choose bozo

Vecna already had two votes, and flash knew two more votes could get the unCCed JOAT lynched. After this post, Foxcastle voted for flash for a short time before voting for me. Foxcastle knew how bad flash's post looked, and we know Foxcastle likes to bus. The indication that flash expected Foxcastle to listen to him looks very suspicious.

worcej: possible scum. Foxcastle and worcej could have been bussing each other. I am interesting in hearing more from Bismarck about this statement:

I think if the EOD wagons are only Worcej and Foxcastle, either death will be good for Town.

damo: possible scum. We know the last scum is the roleblocker, and I doubt the roleblocker used the RB N2. If the scum were going to risk getting the roleblocker tracked, I believe they would have used the RB and NK on peter to take out a confirmed town and useful PR.

Squigs: possible scum. He could have also been bussing teacher.

rdrivera: possible scum. Good at hiding as scum.

Five out of nine? That isn't a very short scum list. /s

OK, I see I need to give more explanation. As I said above I was testing out Squigs first, seeing how he would react...as I had come to the conclusion Mafia either joined the teacher wagon late OR it had to be someone that voted for teacher.

Given that Squigs hadn't given me anything to go on and given that no-one else had any suspicion of him, I decided I should move. As there was no wagon on damo or Vecna, I decided to join the one on Bismarck as that made sense...and I was now trusting Squiggs. When Squiggs jumped to Bozo, again that was the only wagon that made sense to me, even though I didn't particularly trust Vecna.

When it came down to the final minutes, the votes were tied between you and Fox...and I was seriously concerned that the final vote could be a tie. As peter was leading the Vecna wagon (I trusted Peter), I reached out to him for guidance given that the Vecna wagon wasn't likely to happen currently. Since Peter wasn't going to do anything, I reached out to Fox as he was the only other person active (who I wasn't at all scumreading at the time). Given that I still didn't trust Vecna's claim at the time, I didn't care which way the lynch went as long as we lynched either you or Vecna. Of course given what I know now, I can't see how I can in any way justify not trusting Vecna's JOAT claim, so I will have to assume he is telling the truth. Note that during the last few minutes of the turn I was only on mobile so I could not go back and verify Vecna's reasoning. I finally did that when I got home about 2 hours after the day ended. I sent out my first longer post not long after that.

I don't know how to read you. At this point if we both survive tonight, I don't have further information and another wagon forms on you I probably will join it. I read your ignoring of Vecna's vote on you (you didn't even ask him for reasoning) and your "look over there" posts pointing fingers in all directions (especially me and Squigs) as a desperate attempt at self-preservation...suggesting potential scum (or more likely now - SK) motivation. But I was reading the same thing from Jamie D3 and look how that turned out. So there definitely is a possibility that you are VT just like me. Whatever happens, if you go, I go or we both go I will be interested to see how things turn out this evening.

Arggh. Typo:

"as I had come to the conclusion Mafia either joined the teacher wagon late OR it had to be someone that voted for peter."

[ND]

##GM NOTE
5 hours remain until EON

[Vecna]

Im not sure ill be online at EoN but ive just submitted that im shooting Bozo.

Bismarck, best not track him :)

[Squigs44]

If we are all posting scumlists, then here is mine:

1) Bozo
2) Flash
3) Rdrivera

Honestly, out of these three I think Bozo is mafia, and then between Flash and Rdirvera one is the SK and the other is the tracker. SK and tracker both want to make it deep in the game, and both of them seem to be playing a little more conservatively than a VT might.

Peter and Vec are uncced PRs obviously. The more I think about it and hear from Bismarck, the less I think he is scum. Worcej is looking pretty townie unless mafia was hard bussing him the whole game. Damo would be my fourth scum slot. He has a semi-clear from Vecs track, but he could have been RBer and held his RB. Brain claimed he was RBd then, but who knows if he was telling the truth?

[worcej]

Continuing with the scumlist/target posting, considering I may perish tonight as well (since I am being townread more now by the group), my leading scum targets are flash followed closely by Bismark.

Vecna, I propose that you take out flash tonight based on these reasons below:

1. Reviewing the readlists of both Fox and Teacher, I found the only time that both of them posted a list and that was on D1 - Teacher was on the defense for a large part of it and posted his 2nd reads in N1 and Fox never posted a list on D2. In this list, both Flash and Bismark had the same reads from each player. Their comments for rdrivera were close, but not similar. I mark this as potential because those reads are obviously forced to steer people away or not draw too much attention.
2. Continuing with the above one, but wanted to separate, Fox read teacher2 as town during D2. He made a post discussing the DrCJG visit and how it doesn't confirm teacher2 is scum, but that DrCJG thought so. He was eventually called out for possibly defending teacher2, and went so far to post in response to it. It wasn't until 00:41 from the end that Fox decided to bus teacher2.
3. Fox has read Flash as town the entire time while actually reading Bismark scum once on N2, then back to town on N3. Based on Fox's gameplay/method, I strongly believe Fox's method to win was to put others up in the spotlight to hide his alignment and his partners.
4. The end of D3 is very telling to me that Flash was looking to Fox for guidance. Flash and Squigs interacted back and forth a lot in their discussion of bozo. It wasn't until 00:06 that I saw flash say these two things:
   1. "It all hinges on you fox" (Page 109)
   2. "If you go to vecna fox I will follow. Otherwise choose bozo" (Page 109)
   Remember, there is no mafia QT on days and I think we can all say flash is a new player. I think these two posts by Flash were his scum slip.
5. After the scum slip, Fox made two attempts to cover for Flash so that we would look elsewhere.
   1. His vote for Flash and then "That probably won't stick, of course. But hey, my life is on the line here."
   2. "FUCK YOU SQUIGGS
      
      YOU'RE A SHIT TEAMAMT"
   Again, Fox is not a bad player, but his goals were to ensure his teammates were hidden and distant from him. These last two plays were desperation moves to save his own butt.

I can totally be wrong with this analysis because the leading theory is that Fox's strategy was to instigate other player's demise via public opinion, so leaning his companions as town was the leading method to ensure no attention would go to them. The pretty big scum slip of flash added icing to this cake to me and why I think he is the best option for a NK.

My guess though, as I addressed earlier, is that I don't live to see the end of this night - now that Fox is dead and confirmed scum, the scum reads on me have dwindled enough to justify my termination.

[worcej]

I wish you could edit posts in here sometimes...

Clarification at the end: Fox was trying to save his 'teams' butt - he knows that it's now up to the last scum player to pull it off and some big luck by the SK to make it through the evening completely.

[worcej]

I also expect to see 3 kills tonight unless people double up on targets tonight. That being said, if you have any information it would be best to ensure it's posted by EON to ensure it isn't wasted.

[worcej]

And to be clear - there is also the chance that flash is SO NEW that this was just the noobiest of noob moves @ EOD. I am just assuming he isn't that new/stupid to slip like that.

[worcej]

And by slip, I mean to only count on one person to break the tie. There were several people who could break that tie, not just Fox. The fact he called Fox out entirely is my source for the scum read.

[worcej]

Also, to add more to this interesting fire:

I have yet to find any place where Bismark claimed tracker, though Vecna is acting as if it has been claimed...