MAFIA XXXVII: THE WHEEL OF WEB-TIME

[Vecna]

(and Bozo is Mafia)

[Foxcastle]

About to head out for hiking. Probably won't even have cell service to read the thread. Then 2 hour drive home. Not sure if I will be around for EOD.

So two points. First, Bozo and Rdrivera keep themselves sparse enough that it's hard for me to find things to respond. This has been true across several games. Also, Rdrivera has been scumreading me and I have responded to him, and asked him to update his read on me, because it's based on an outdated misread of Day 1. Go back and reread it Rdrivera, your conclusions about what I was going are wrong.

Also, it's not tunneling to pressure a player with a bunch of scummy play, who can't explain or justify himself with anything better than OMGUS and accusations that I'm tunneling. I made my case on worcej. If Brain hadn't died, I'd be voting him today, and it's a little inconvenient that I can't go back and reconsider the game from my phone. Things have changed enough that I need to rethink, but worcej hasn't done anything to find scum, and the only response he has to my case on him is that I am "tunneling" him. Well, it's not tunneling when you're not scumhunting and you keep looking scummy.

Also, as for the teacher theory, if scum bussed him, they did it late or got stuck on his wagon early and couldn't move off without looking bad, because there's no way they'd give up their njinja. I am not such a crap player that I would bus Teacher (who I was suspicious of, but not outright scumreading) when the wagons were so close, when Peter was barely a better read for me at the time. And I would have been waiting for his PR claim as an excuse to jump off him.

[flash2015]

##VOTE BismarckAlive

I am going back and re-reading his posts. The posts appear quite shallow and he hasn't really been called out on it. It could be that he just doesn't have much time to read this game (we generate lots of stuff to read).

Alternatively we could be just easily letting newbie scum fall under the radar. He is one of the four that voted Peter on D2 (he was also on the peter wagon D1).

I am not sure how we got into the state where we are largely concentrating only on people who voted teacher D2 (I know I am partially to blame)...leading to wagons on now four wagons for people who voted for teacher (peter, bozo, fox and rdrivera) whilst not having anyone voting for two of the four who were on the wrongside of that vote (damo and Vecna). Vecna especially was a strong pusher for two mislynches. Why is he not on anyone's radar?

[Squigs44]

Alright guys. Finally got away from RL and have time to try to solve this.

First off, lets start with some assumptions:
1 - Peterlund is cleared doctor
2 - Vecna is cleared JOAT
3 - Damo is semi-cleared as not scum

1 and 2 are based off of PR claims that have not been counterclaimed. 3 is based off of Vecna’s declared track of Damo. This doesn’t clear Damo, since he could have held his night action, but it definitely raises his odds of being town. For the sake of simplicity, I am going to treat Damo as if he is town. His increased gameplay has also helped me to have more of a townread on him, and he seems pretty genuine and didn’t panic at all when cases were put up against him.

That leaves six players left:
Flash2015, Bozo, rdrivera, worcej, foxcastle, and BismarckAlive.
Two mafia, one SK. Honestly, at this point, SK could be any of them. SK has no teammates, so VCA doesn’t really apply. They really will probably just play like town, but maybe a bit more conservative.

Out of those six players, BismarckAlive and Worcej were on the peter train D2, flash, rdrivera, and foxcastle were on the teacher train, and bozo switched his vote between the two.

Worcej vote on peter was before the teacher train happened. Also, teacher voted for peter right after worcej voted. I find it unlikely that two scum would vote for a town train back to back like that when there was no mafia currently in danger (the peter train was the only train at the time). This gives me a townlean on worcej.

BismarckAlive parked his vote on Peter early, and left it there the whole day. Very easy and convenient for scum to do.

When the wagons were 8-6 in favor of teacher, bozo moved his vote off of worcej and onto peter. Prior to this vote, he argued against cases on teacher, but denied that he was defending teacher. This looks scummy, as a possible attempt to save teacher. However, after the fake PR claims, bozo switches his vote over to teacher, which helps clinch the vote against teacher. Maybe he knew that if teacher flipped, he would be next up on the lynch wagon for appearing to defend teacher, and decided he should cut his losses and bus teacher to save himself. Definitely suspicious behavior here.

With the teacher train, fox pushed it from 5-5 to 6-5 in favor of teacher, flash pushed it from 7-6 to 8-6, and rdrivera pushed it from 4-5 favoring peter to tied at 5-5.
This puts rdrivera as not mafia for me. He is a high possibility for SK for me, but we will worry about that later. Fox likely isn’t mafia either, but it is a definite possibility. I don’t think he is worth lynching today though. Out of these three, flash has the least towncred from the voting, but his other play makes me think he is likely town.

Tl;dr : BismarckAlive and Bozo are my top two scumreads based off of VCA from D2.

D1 voting, Bismarck followed Bozo’s voting twice. Once on DemonRHK, and then onto Peter. Other than that observation, I don’t see much else to gain from VCA.

D3 voting doesn’t give us much since the top two wagons were both town. However, Bismarcks vote is on worcej and then switches to vecna, which gives me bad vibes. Trying to distance himself from either town player lynch?

[Vecna]

flash, help me lynch bozo please. dont make me vig you

[flash2015]

i know people arent gonna listen anyway, but if we lynch fox, bozo and rdrivera, town wins.

people are scumreading worcej for shit reasons and id be very sirprised if it flips scum.
damo could theoretically be a totally dumbtelling janitor or sk, but i doubt it.
Flash might be the person im wrong about, but i still think hes town over bozo rdrivera and fox.

Peter, you should probably sheep me, since at least if we dictate the lynch its town controlled.

you shouls know by now thay fox, bozo and rdrivera are way more capable of pulling the wool over our eyes than whatever other lynchbait is being put on the table now.

if you dont believe me, just search the iso of fox, bozo and rdrivera, and look if they ever even mention eachother outside of their readslist. its very very minimal.

You do not have to be an experience player to roll scum.

If I am wrong about the mafia not bussing teacher, I think Squigs and flash are as likely as anyone to have bussed teacher, they both voted for teacher when he was already the top wagon, and they were the two who tried to switch to Jamie right at EOD.

Here was my reasoning for voting for teacher over peter - it was the sketchy decision for teacher to jump off peter day 1. It just didn't sound right.

I always thought either jamie or BB was scum. When Jamie did the crazy voting stunt game 2, then switched to peter, I thought it was an attempt to save teacher. When BB decided to create the Jamie wagon, I thought that if Jamie rolled town it would then confirm at least for me that BB was scum. As I have said before, I realize it was a mistake for me to switch there, not only since my reasoning would have meant teacher was scum anyway but the quick vote moves potentially put any lynch at risk (we were really lucky it worked out OK).

[Vecna]

squig, id like to ask you the same thing

[flash2015]

flash, help me lynch bozo please. dont make me vig you

You were willing to lynch Bismarck previously. Why do you now think he is town?

[Squigs44]

Did some more rereading of BismarckAlive. His townslip on his first post is giving me pause. No way that a new player purposefully townslips on his very first post. The only way I can see him doing this is if he was coached in the mafia qt, but I doubt that happens on his very first post of the game. All of his other play looks scummy, but I don't know if I can vote for him after seeing that again.
I think I might have to vote for Bozo today. I feel a lot better about voting the same way as one of my two confirmed townies. Also, we need to get a wagon of more than two organized soon.
##vote Bozo

[flash2015]

Did some more rereading of BismarckAlive. His townslip on his first post is giving me pause. No way that a new player purposefully townslips on his very first post. The only way I can see him doing this is if he was coached in the mafia qt, but I doubt that happens on his very first post of the game. All of his other play looks scummy, but I don't know if I can vote for him after seeing that again.
I think I might have to vote for Bozo today. I feel a lot better about voting the same way as one of my two confirmed townies. Also, we need to get a wagon of more than two organized soon.
##vote Bozo

What was the townslip? You interpret the hospital thing as a townslip...or am I missing something else obvious?

[Squigs44]

I have also been thinking about the DT kill. DT said he was very scared about dying during the nighttime. Since he was veteran, you would think that he would go on alert if he was that scared. My guess is that he didn't go on alert because he had gone on alert N2, and didn't have that ability anymore.
Furthermore, if he went on alert and SK targeted him N2, that would explain the lack of an expected NK. The SK would know that DT was the veteran, and would know that he could kill him the next night. DT would know that he was targeted, and that would explain why he was so scared.
I think this is why DT was killed last night even after his push on jamie made him look less townie. SK wants to get rid of PR's to limit end of game role claims.

So now the question is: why did the SK originally target DT on N2? Did DT have them as a scumread?

[Squigs44]

Alas, my silence is being misinterpreted and I am being voted to be lynched!
Know me first before you cast your stones towards me.
I was in hospital this day past, so beg forgiveness for the silence.
Now, to last night's visits. Who can tell me what happened to them?

He asked about night visits when there were none.

[flash2015]

Alas, my silence is being misinterpreted and I am being voted to be lynched!
Know me first before you cast your stones towards me.
I was in hospital this day past, so beg forgiveness for the silence.
Now, to last night's visits. Who can tell me what happened to them?

He asked about night visits when there were none.

Why couldn't he be playing newbie dumb here?

I don't like to go back and forth so much but I don't know whether I will be online at 5pm EDT today. If Vecna has got this wrong AGAIN this will be three mislynchings he has lead or tried to lead (peter, BB and potentially bozo). If bozo rolls town, Vecna definitely should be lynched tomorrow:

##VOTE bozo

[Squigs44]

I have also been thinking about the DT kill. DT said he was very scared about dying during the nighttime. Since he was veteran, you would think that he would go on alert if he was that scared. My guess is that he didn't go on alert because he had gone on alert N2, and didn't have that ability anymore.
Furthermore, if he went on alert and SK targeted him N2, that would explain the lack of an expected NK. The SK would know that DT was the veteran, and would know that he could kill him the next night. DT would know that he was targeted, and that would explain why he was so scared.
I think this is why DT was killed last night even after his push on jamie made him look less townie. SK wants to get rid of PR's to limit end of game role claims.

So now the question is: why did the SK originally target DT on N2? Did DT have them as a scumread?

DT was pushing Bozo D2. One more strike against Bozo.

[bozotheclown]

I suggested flash and Squigs were the most likely bussers of teacher, and now they are both suddenly voting for me. I think we may have found the last two scum.

[bozotheclown]

Alas, my silence is being misinterpreted and I am being voted to be lynched!
Know me first before you cast your stones towards me.
I was in hospital this day past, so beg forgiveness for the silence.
Now, to last night's visits. Who can tell me what happened to them?

He asked about night visits when there were none.

Why couldn't he be playing newbie dumb here?

I don't like to go back and forth so much but I don't know whether I will be online at 5pm EDT today. If Vecna has got this wrong AGAIN this will be three mislynchings he has lead or tried to lead (peter, BB and potentially bozo). If bozo rolls town, Vecna definitely should be lynched tomorrow:

##VOTE bozo

You would want to lynch an unCCed town PR? I am getting the feeling you know I will flip town.


##VOTE flash2015

[bozotheclown]

Alas, my silence is being misinterpreted and I am being voted to be lynched!
Know me first before you cast your stones towards me.
I was in hospital this day past, so beg forgiveness for the silence.
Now, to last night's visits. Who can tell me what happened to them?

He asked about night visits when there were none.

He also indicated in his reads today that he thought teacher could talk to the other scum during the day on D2. That could be faked as well, but the post you pointed out is why I have put Bismarck as the least likely of the peter voters to be scum.

[flash2015]

He asked about night visits when there were none.

Why couldn't he be playing newbie dumb here?

I don't like to go back and forth so much but I don't know whether I will be online at 5pm EDT today. If Vecna has got this wrong AGAIN this will be three mislynchings he has lead or tried to lead (peter, BB and potentially bozo). If bozo rolls town, Vecna definitely should be lynched tomorrow:

##VOTE bozo

You would want to lynch an unCCed town PR? I am getting the feeling you know I will flip town.


##VOTE flash2015

Why would anyone else out themselves as JOAT if the JOAT NK has not been used yet? You would be just asking for Mafia to rollblock and kill you tonight (or at the very least RB if the doctor is forced to save). If Vecna is lying and there is a separate JOAT, it is far better to use the JOAT NK tonight on Vecna.

[bozotheclown]

I have also been thinking about the DT kill. DT said he was very scared about dying during the nighttime. Since he was veteran, you would think that he would go on alert if he was that scared. My guess is that he didn't go on alert because he had gone on alert N2, and didn't have that ability anymore.
Furthermore, if he went on alert and SK targeted him N2, that would explain the lack of an expected NK. The SK would know that DT was the veteran, and would know that he could kill him the next night. DT would know that he was targeted, and that would explain why he was so scared.
I think this is why DT was killed last night even after his push on jamie made him look less townie. SK wants to get rid of PR's to limit end of game role claims.

So now the question is: why did the SK originally target DT on N2? Did DT have them as a scumread?

If DT had been targeted by the SK while he was on alert N2, he would have been notified, and he would have informed us. I think you would know that, so this post seems fabricated.

[bozotheclown]

Why couldn't he be playing newbie dumb here?

I don't like to go back and forth so much but I don't know whether I will be online at 5pm EDT today. If Vecna has got this wrong AGAIN this will be three mislynchings he has lead or tried to lead (peter, BB and potentially bozo). If bozo rolls town, Vecna definitely should be lynched tomorrow:

##VOTE bozo

You would want to lynch an unCCed town PR? I am getting the feeling you know I will flip town.


##VOTE flash2015

Why would anyone else out themselves as JOAT if the JOAT NK has not been used yet? You would be just asking for Mafia to rollblock and kill you tonight (or at the very least RB if the doctor is forced to save). If Vecna is lying and there is a separate JOAT, it is far better to use the JOAT NK tonight on Vecna.

Why would one of the two remaining scum ensure their eventual lynch by claiming a town PR?