Mini Mafia 1018 - Race with the Devil [hidden]

[Chaqa]

There is currently at least one scum voting for Bob.

[Chaqa]

Unsure what to make of that.

[Chaqa]

I know I'm town, and that means either Bob is town and 2 scum are voting for him, or Bob is scum and his teammate is voting for him.

If Bob is town, then the possible scumteams are ghug/Maniac, ghug/rdr, and Maniac/rdr.

If Bob is scum, the teams are clearly Bob/x where x is any Bob voter.

Hmm.

[ghug]

I know I'm town, and that means either Bob is town and 2 scum are voting for him, or Bob is scum and his teammate is voting for him.

If Bob is town, then the possible scumteams are ghug/Maniac, ghug/rdr, and Maniac/rdr.

If Bob is scum, the teams are clearly Bob/x where x is any Bob voter.

Hmm.

Near the end of fifth grade, the middle school I was set to go to have us a math placement test. One of the questions asked us to identify the equation for a table of values. It was a quadratic relationship, but I hadn't done any algebra before, so I wrote "x + y - x = y".

[Chaqa]

ghug-rivera is a very unlikely scumteam anyway.

That means if two scum are on Bob it's ghug-Maniac or Maniac-rivera.

[ghug]

ghug-rivera is a very unlikely scumteam anyway.

That means if two scum are on Bob it's ghug-Maniac or Maniac-rivera.

Wanna kill Maniac instead?

[Chaqa]

On Day 3 when we no-killed, the logic I had was that we could protect the cop, who was one of four people (from scum's perspective) that were not the two scum or myself.

They were able to narrow Bona out of that due to his own misplay.

To them that limited the potential cops (plus themselves) to celaph, Maniac, ghug, Bob, rivera.

They killed celaph because of the previous roleblocks, and (apparently) roleblocked Maniac... which means either both scum are in ghug, Bob, rivera (from that logic) or Maniac is one of them claiming the RB and they felt so sure about celaph being cop they held the RB. I'm not sure I buy that.

Rivera's cleaph townslip thing is pretty strong evidence to him being town.

[Chaqa]

ghug-rivera is a very unlikely scumteam anyway.

That means if two scum are on Bob it's ghug-Maniac or Maniac-rivera.

Wanna kill Maniac instead?

I'm actually second-guessing my townread on you a bit.

But like, kinda? Idk

[rdrivera2005]

I know I'm town, and that means either Bob is town and 2 scum are voting for him, or Bob is scum and his teammate is voting for him.

If Bob is town, then the possible scumteams are ghug/Maniac, ghug/rdr, and Maniac/rdr.

If Bob is scum, the teams are clearly Bob/x where x is any Bob voter.

Hmm.

Near the end of fifth grade, the middle school I was set to go to have us a math placement test. One of the questions asked us to identify the equation for a table of values. It was a quadratic relationship, but I hadn't done any algebra before, so I wrote "x + y - x = y".

Lol. My daughter was doing more or less the same thing on a math lesson another day and it was hard to explain to her what is wrong.

I don´t know if Chaqa really thinks in circular logic or he is faking.

[Chaqa]

I know I'm town, and that means either Bob is town and 2 scum are voting for him, or Bob is scum and his teammate is voting for him.

If Bob is town, then the possible scumteams are ghug/Maniac, ghug/rdr, and Maniac/rdr.

If Bob is scum, the teams are clearly Bob/x where x is any Bob voter.

Hmm.

Near the end of fifth grade, the middle school I was set to go to have us a math placement test. One of the questions asked us to identify the equation for a table of values. It was a quadratic relationship, but I hadn't done any algebra before, so I wrote "x + y - x = y".

Lol. My daughter was doing more or less the same thing on a math lesson another day and it was hard to explain to her what is wrong.

I don´t know if Chaqa really thinks in circular logic or he is faking.

How is it circular logic?

I can objectively know there is a scum voting for Bob, because I am not voting for Bob. Whether there's one or two, I'm not sure.

[ghug]

Ok Chaqa, let's assume we're both town for a second.. Do you think it makes more sense that a scum Maniac or Rd is bussing Bob, or that they're a team pressing a kill on a townie?

I feel like if it's the former, rivera's probably the teammate, because Maniac was the one that really forced our hands on Bob, and he had a plausible reason to push you or me instead.

[rdrivera2005]

On Day 3 when we no-killed, the logic I had was that we could protect the cop, who was one of four people (from scum's perspective) that were not the two scum or myself.

They were able to narrow Bona out of that due to his own misplay.

To them that limited the potential cops (plus themselves) to celaph, Maniac, ghug, Bob, rivera.

They killed celaph because of the previous roleblocks, and (apparently) roleblocked Maniac... which means either both scum are in ghug, Bob, rivera (from that logic) or Maniac is one of them claiming the RB and they felt so sure about celaph being cop they held the RB. I'm not sure I buy that.

Rivera's cleaph townslip thing is pretty strong evidence to him being town.

What you didn´t account is that scum have two decent possibilites to avoid a cop result (Celaph and the NK, that was also on him, but I expect them to keep RBing him and kill another one). And we have one less town on the next day when we miskilled Bona. That´s why I didn´t want a no-kill, I think no-kill is a last resort in milo, not to be used in middle game. One of the reasons I was tunneling Ghug is how he agreed with that plan so easily.

[Chaqa]

Ok Chaqa, let's assume we're both town for a second.. Do you think it makes more sense that a scum Maniac or Rd is bussing Bob, or that they're a team pressing a kill on a townie?

I feel like if it's the former, rivera's probably the teammate, because Maniac was the one that really forced our hands on Bob, and he had a plausible reason to push you or me instead.

What makes rivera a likely teammate of Bob besides PoE?

I don't think you and rivera being teammates is super likely, so in the world where I'm wrong about you and you're scum, rivera is not likely to be your teammate, so I'd be more willing to vote for Bob or Maniac as insurance (unsure if this logic flows smoothly for others, but it makes sense to me).

[Chaqa]

On Day 3 when we no-killed, the logic I had was that we could protect the cop, who was one of four people (from scum's perspective) that were not the two scum or myself.

They were able to narrow Bona out of that due to his own misplay.

To them that limited the potential cops (plus themselves) to celaph, Maniac, ghug, Bob, rivera.

They killed celaph because of the previous roleblocks, and (apparently) roleblocked Maniac... which means either both scum are in ghug, Bob, rivera (from that logic) or Maniac is one of them claiming the RB and they felt so sure about celaph being cop they held the RB. I'm not sure I buy that.

Rivera's cleaph townslip thing is pretty strong evidence to him being town.

What you didn´t account is that scum have two decent possibilites to avoid a cop result (Celaph and the NK, that was also on him, but I expect them to keep RBing him and kill another one). And we have one less town on the next day when we miskilled Bona. That´s why I didn´t want a no-kill, I think no-kill is a last resort in milo, not to be used in middle game. One of the reasons I was tunneling Ghug is how he agreed with that plan so easily.

So, mafia probably killed celaph because with the Doctor dead it was generally assumed his roleblock claims were real, and with two of them, it's doubly unlikely he was mafia fake-claiming, so killing him and roleblocking elsewhere is simply optimal.

Whether they would roleblock Maniac or hold the RB so Maniac could claim it I'm less certain of. If they held the roleblock and celaph was not the Cop, would they not simply be screwed if the Cop claimed a guilty on someone?

This makes me believe Maniac's claim.

If Maniac's claim is true, then it's either ghug-Bob or rivera-Bob.

So, in this case, the teammate is bussing Bob.

But if Maniac's claim is false, it's a super ballsy play and mafia has played well with their kills (which I earlier made a case is not true, and simply mafia is lucky, which would validate Maniac's claim).

[rdrivera2005]

Ok Chaqa, let's assume we're both town for a second.. Do you think it makes more sense that a scum Maniac or Rd is bussing Bob, or that they're a team pressing a kill on a townie?

I feel like if it's the former, rivera's probably the teammate, because Maniac was the one that really forced our hands on Bob, and he had a plausible reason to push you or me instead.

But why scum Maniac would need to buss like this? Why Maniac don´t just vote you as I was asking?
And if you think it´s me and Maniac, why Maniac don´t just vote you as Bob is already there?

That´s my point. The only scumpair I can see Maniac with it´s you.

[Chaqa]

Is Bob coming back?

If Bob is scum an isn't coming back, it doesn't really matter, but if he's town, and we don't want to vote him, we would need to vote ghug out...

Luckily, I don't think ghug-Bob makes much sense as a team.

I would agree ghug's most likely/only teammate could be Maniac.

Ghug/Maniac
Rivera/Maniac
Rivera/Bob

Ugh.

[rdrivera2005]

Ok Chaqa, let's assume we're both town for a second.. Do you think it makes more sense that a scum Maniac or Rd is bussing Bob, or that they're a team pressing a kill on a townie?

I feel like if it's the former, rivera's probably the teammate, because Maniac was the one that really forced our hands on Bob, and he had a plausible reason to push you or me instead.

But why scum Maniac would need to buss like this? Why Maniac don´t just vote you as I was asking?
And if you think it´s me and Maniac, why Maniac don´t just vote you as Bob is already there?

That´s my point. The only scumpair I can see Maniac with it´s you.

I suppose it could be Maniac and Chaqa and they are just having a laugh making us dance around three town wagons at EOD.

[Chaqa]

Mafia can easily cause a tie... ugh.

[rdrivera2005]

Mafia can easily cause a tie... ugh.

Which is exactly what I have been talking all day and asking for a consensus where scum can´t make a last minute move....

[ghug]

Ok Chaqa, let's assume we're both town for a second.. Do you think it makes more sense that a scum Maniac or Rd is bussing Bob, or that they're a team pressing a kill on a townie?

I feel like if it's the former, rivera's probably the teammate, because Maniac was the one that really forced our hands on Bob, and he had a plausible reason to push you or me instead.

What makes rivera a likely teammate of Bob besides PoE?

I don't think you and rivera being teammates is super likely, so in the world where I'm wrong about you and you're scum, rivera is not likely to be your teammate, so I'd be more willing to vote for Bob or Maniac as insurance (unsure if this logic flows smoothly for others, but it makes sense to me).

Specifically if you and I are town and Bob is scum, I think rivera's getting on the wagon makes more sense as Bob's teammate than Maniac pushing it.

Part of the reason I'm not excited to kill Bob is that I don't think he's Maniac's teammate, and I think Maniac is scum.