Mini Mafia 1018 - Race with the Devil [hidden]

[Chaqa]

I do think it's Bob-rivera, though.

[BobMcBob]

scumteam scanning
episode 4
chaqa/maniac

chaqa begins his stint by leaving open maniac as possibly bussing scum
very weird interplay between maniac and chaqa day 3 where maniac quotes chaqa out of context to make a contradiction and chaqa gets mad about it and scumreads maniac more
immediate gut reaction is that this is an unlikely interaction between two scum, although it could be distancing i guess
chaqa is however very quick to jump on maniacs rb claim as very towny
chaqa mysteriously flips back to maniac scum suddenly?
then calls the team maniac/bona
then flips to there being no way he would vote maniac today, because of... the rb claim again
possibly the most inconsistent read ive seen all game

maniac on the other hand scumreads chaqa early and pushes hard for removal there
then the d3 thing but the scumread solidly continues
and also into d4
and then suddenly just earlier today, it inexplicably disappears and now me and ghug are scum and chaqa is misguided town or something
quite literally out of nowhere this time, not like ghugs townread on rivera

this is an odd pairing because the d3 thing makes me think not scum together but the rb thing and maniacs unexplained read switch at a very convenient time makes me think otherwise
this seems like a pretty good candidate for the team though honestly

[BobMcBob]

With chaqa ruling Ghug out o just can’t see a Ghug kill happening. I suppose you, me and Bob could kill Ghug but I’m more certain chaqa Is just misguided town at this point. If chaqa thinks it’s maniac/Bob or Rdr/Bob and you and I think it could be Ghug/Bob then Bob is the best kill today. I really worry that you or I then die tonight and Chaqa doesn’t kill Ghug tomorrow, but I can’t see any other way today resolves. I still put Ghug/bob ahead of Chaqa/Bob so a chaqa kill really doesn’t appeal to me. And obviously I’m never voting Rdriveria today unless I have to save myself.

I just don't understand your logic. If you are town here and are sure Ghug is scum we need to kill him today. If we don't kill him today he just kill one of us at night and he won't be killed.

Seems like you are just going for the easiest way (no one really townreads Bob).

What’s the alternative? Say you, me and Bob vote Ghug. Chaqa and Ghug vote for you or me. Do you trust Bob to not slide of Ghug with seconds to go? We’d be handing the game to someone no one is townreading. That can’t be good play.

i mean id have to wake up first

[ghug]

I still just don't really get why you stopped considering me as an option, Chaqa.

Find a game where I read you wrong when I'm town.

I don't think you'll find one in the last like... 3 years.

Ok but I was gone for like two of those so that doesn't mean a whole lot.

You doubted me yesterday. Why don't you doubt me today?

[ghug]

I can easily be convinced to vote Ghug and I am town. And I am not totally convinced about Bob.

With chaqa ruling Ghug out o just can’t see a Ghug kill happening. I suppose you, me and Bob could kill Ghug but I’m more certain chaqa Is just misguided town at this point. If chaqa thinks it’s maniac/Bob or Rdr/Bob and you and I think it could be Ghug/Bob then Bob is the best kill today. I really worry that you or I then die tonight and Chaqa doesn’t kill Ghug tomorrow, but I can’t see any other way today resolves. I still put Ghug/bob ahead of Chaqa/Bob so a chaqa kill really doesn’t appeal to me. And obviously I’m never voting Rdriveria today unless I have to save myself.

I just don't understand your logic. If you are town here and are sure Ghug is scum we need to kill him today. If we don't kill him today he just kill one of us at night and he won't be killed.

Seems like you are just going for the easiest way (no one really townreads Bob).

Sure looks that way.

[ghug]

Ok, Bob, Rivera, my best bet at this point is that y'all are the townies. Obviously y'all aren't in the same boat, but if y'all can agree on either of Maniac or Chaqa, I'd like to vote with you. I'm more confident about Maniac, but I think I'm more likely to get votes for Chaqa, so that's where I am.

If someone wants to make a strong case for someone else, go for it, but we're running out of time in the day and nowhere near consensus, which means a certain scum win, so let's get it together.

[Chaqa]

Ok, Bob, Rivera, my best bet at this point is that y'all are the townies. Obviously y'all aren't in the same boat, but if y'all can agree on either of Maniac or Chaqa, I'd like to vote with you. I'm more confident about Maniac, but I think I'm more likely to get votes for Chaqa, so that's where I am.

If someone wants to make a strong case for someone else, go for it, but we're running out of time in the day and nowhere near consensus, which means a certain scum win, so let's get it together.

BRUH

You're so far off the truth it's not even funny.

[ghug]

Ok, Bob, Rivera, my best bet at this point is that y'all are the townies. Obviously y'all aren't in the same boat, but if y'all can agree on either of Maniac or Chaqa, I'd like to vote with you. I'm more confident about Maniac, but I think I'm more likely to get votes for Chaqa, so that's where I am.

If someone wants to make a strong case for someone else, go for it, but we're running out of time in the day and nowhere near consensus, which means a certain scum win, so let's get it together.

BRUH

You're so far off the truth it's not even funny.

Bruh I'm trying ok?

[BobMcBob]

i dont even know dude
i honestly may just try to wake up in time to consolidate votes, because otherwise i cant see any way we win this
although i may end up not waking up in time, which would suck

[BobMcBob]

##vote chaqa for now and hope i can manage to wake up in time

[Chaqa]

WHY DIDNT YOU VOTE ME OUT THE LAST TWO DAYS

This is so ridiculous

[rdrivera2005]

With chaqa ruling Ghug out o just can’t see a Ghug kill happening. I suppose you, me and Bob could kill Ghug but I’m more certain chaqa Is just misguided town at this point. If chaqa thinks it’s maniac/Bob or Rdr/Bob and you and I think it could be Ghug/Bob then Bob is the best kill today. I really worry that you or I then die tonight and Chaqa doesn’t kill Ghug tomorrow, but I can’t see any other way today resolves. I still put Ghug/bob ahead of Chaqa/Bob so a chaqa kill really doesn’t appeal to me. And obviously I’m never voting Rdriveria today unless I have to save myself.

I just don't understand your logic. If you are town here and are sure Ghug is scum we need to kill him today. If we don't kill him today he just kill one of us at night and he won't be killed.

Seems like you are just going for the easiest way (no one really townreads Bob).

What’s the alternative? Say you, me and Bob vote Ghug. Chaqa and Ghug vote for you or me. Do you trust Bob to not slide of Ghug with seconds to go? We’d be handing the game to someone no one is townreading. That can’t be good play.

I think all town should agree to vote together at the end. In this case, if Chaqa is town he needs to vote Ghug close to EOD. I will vote whoever is in
the lead (but me) close to EOD and think all town should commit to do the same to avoid exactly this you are talking about.

[rdrivera2005]

It could be odd, but Chaqa vote on me makes me feel he is probably town. Why start a new wagon and risk that I just decide to OMGUS and vote him? The only way I see Chaqa as scum is if he is scum with Bob and are trying to get a town wagon going.

[rdrivera2005]

I will try to write my thoughts about the possible pairings as I keep failing at coming to a conclusion, it will probably be a bit messy, but it´s how I feel.

From my POV there are 6 possible scum pairings:
Ghug-Chaqa
Ghug-Bob
Ghug-Maniac
Chaqa-Bob
Chaqa-Maniac
Bob-Maniac

I don´t think it´s Ghug and Chaqa. The interaction between Ghug and Jamiet didn´t seem SxS and Chaqa´s hard town read of Ghug is also something I don´t expect SxS to do.

Maniac and Bob also doesn´t make sense. Maniac could easily get Ghug or Chaqa killed if he jump in those boats, so why push Bob if he is scum. In fact, the only pair I can see Maniac being scum is with Ghug. This would explain saving Ghug last day and his voting today.

So, it leaves:

Ghug-Bob - It´s the most likely pair I think. I can´t really see any reason to discard this pair.

Ghug-Maniac - Like I said this make sense in a tinfoild theory where Maniac saved Ghug.

Chaqa-Bob - This is another pair that could work, but the way both voted each other at today´s start didn´t look like a scum team. It could be bussing, but then why Chaqa decided to move to me now?

Maniac - Chaqa - I suppose Maniac and Chaqa could also work, but the way both voted for Bob today doesn´t seem like a scum pair and also Chaqa moving to me, doesn´t seem a likely move with this pairing.

I think this is probably hard to read from an outside view, but this is what I am thinking. My gut feeling keep teling me to go after Ghug and my pair analisys too (confirmation bias?).

I will ##vote Ghug and see what happen. Like I said before I will consolidade closer to EOD as we can´t afford vanity wagons and I hope anyone who is town to do the same so we at least got a shot.

[BobMcBob]

okay im not going to be able to do full reviews of the other two scumteam pairs so heres where i stand
chaqa-maniac - seems oddly likely, theres a lot of weird stuff going on there especially today conveniently
ghug-maniac - this pairing has very little going for or against it, but its eminently possible
maniac-rdr - another very plausible team, voting today makes sense and i don't remember any interplay that makes it much less likely
rdr-ghug - this seems like it is a decent option from my analysis, vote progression was strange and huge amounts of maybe distancing?
chaqa-rdr - why would this team have chaqa vote rdr today? it just seems odd
ghug-chaqa - if this is the team, all i can say is well done

on individual merit
ghug - has very little going for him, best individual scum candidate
rdr - has a convincing townslip but little else, still seems not too bad
chaqa - im still feeling a lot that scum chaqa would not kill vecna, but i have some doubts
maniac - has a great vote d1 and an rb claim but has done some not very good votes and pushes at multiple points

whats really strange is that maniac, who is the towniest person imo, ends up in more good scumteam candidates than anyone else
maybe its maniac? maybe maniac just doesnt clash with people as much as other players do?
im just lost at this point
i will hopefully be up to consolidate, but no more than half an hour before eod, its too early otherwise
otherwise we may just lose...
##vote ghug

[BobMcBob]

that does mean i will be off to bed now though, still need to get some sleep

[Chaqa]

I don´t think it´s Ghug and Chaqa. The interaction between Ghug and Jamiet didn´t seem SxS and Chaqa´s hard town read of Ghug is also something I don´t expect SxS to do.

ghug-chaqa - if this is the team, all i can say is well done

I think Maniac may also have had a post about this, but I have a general maxim here I think should clear things up.

Everyone agrees Me & Ghug are the most unlikely scum pair. I am town reading ghug. Therefore:

If I am town, my town read is genuine, and ghug can be somewhat believed to be town.

If I am scum, then my town read on ghug is true, because we *shouldn't* be teammates together.

In any world, ghug is town.

So you could vote me today, but shouldn't vote ghug.

And I offerred myself up to town the last two days, specifically because I thought I'd get miskilled more often than others, which I know can be WIFOM but go back read those posts and tell me I wasn't earnest. You can't.

That should make it extremely clear to the three of you (Bob, Rivera, Maniac) who the right vote PoE is today. If I'm wrong about ghug, this of course all is irrelevant and I'm throwing, but I really don't think I am, and I think the two scum are in that group of 3.

My hunch atm is still Bob-Rivera, and it's pretty appropriate they're voting ghug, because they need to convince Maniac to vote ghug out and win.

[rdrivera2005]

If I am town, my town read is genuine, and ghug can be somewhat believed to be town.

Here is the problem. If you are town your read of Ghug means nothing (means you think he is town, but considering you think I am scum, I don't have any faith on your reads).

[rdrivera2005]

Also, if scumteam is me and Bob, why I didn't just vote you with Ghug? A lot easier, don't you think?

[ghug]

Also, if scumteam is me and Bob, why I didn't just vote you with Ghug? A lot easier, don't you think?

Two town wagons is better than one?