Mini Mafia 1018 - Race with the Devil [hidden]

[ghug]

Veccy, riddle me this: you're town, I OMGUS you early and awkwardly over a joke vote, I come into day 2 having not read most of day one still scumreading you and one other person. I catch up, make a bunch of posts, and then still scumread you and that other person. What the fuck would you think?

[Vecna]

Those are just words to sound pretty. Are you really going to sit there and pretend I have issues fabricating convincing thoughts about the game as scum?

Its just that nothings really happening in this game and I zoomed through my catchup too fast and cba going back over it again.

i swear the quality of vecnas scumgame changes depending on what best fits the story he wants to tell at the time

Yes, it does. Its also unrealistic for me to keep moaning about how poor my scumgame is after I did pretty ok'ish in the last 3 games.

Its also unrealistic for Ghug to say last game that I have a very easy time replicating my exact towngame, while he is now claiming he saw through me every single time etc etc - and that because im not talking enough about my thoughts this game that im likely scum.

[ghug]

Those are just words to sound pretty. Are you really going to sit there and pretend I have issues fabricating convincing thoughts about the game as scum?

Its just that nothings really happening in this game and I zoomed through my catchup too fast and cba going back over it again.

i swear the quality of vecnas scumgame changes depending on what best fits the story he wants to tell at the time

Yes, it does. Its also unrealistic for me to keep moaning about how poor my scumgame is after I did pretty ok'ish in the last 3 games.

Its also unrealistic for Ghug to say last game that I have a very easy time replicating my exact towngame, while he is now claiming he saw through me every single time etc etc - and that because im not talking enough about my thoughts this game that im likely scum.

I was scumreading you when I died, Vec. That others failed miserably has no bearing on my perception of my own ability to read you.

[BobMcBob]

The fact youre voting me, instead of even considering Bob - while you have stated plenty of time youre weirded out by things, just shows youre only looking for opportunities and give zero fucks about actually solving.

interesting how im the only one you mention in this post
youre far from above the bar here vecna

It's because he's claiming we're the scumteam.

oh yeah i kinda forgot about that lol

[Bonatogether]

You're relying too heavily on meta discussion because you're not generating real thoughts about the game, which is a scum tell I used to have.

i fucken hate this post

Why?

it subtly throws shade of vecna in a no good and very bad way

[Vecna]

Veccy, riddle me this: you're town, I OMGUS you early and awkwardly over a joke vote, I come into day 2 having not read most of day one still scumreading you and one other person. I catch up, make a bunch of posts, and then still scumread you and that other person. What the fuck would you think?

Ok, let me put a stop to this, because its not helpful. Well, maybe it was helpful, but its now served its purpose.

You did your thing with Jamiet and so far Ive had a lazy game with potentially lazy takes. I have plenty of thoughts, ive just been lazy in typing them out, and theyre still fighting eachother for which gets to be the main line of thought. Ill type some out, since apparently you wanna be my motivational coach or whatever, and I have some time now in between browsing for new shower sets.

Im never going to be 100% on you being town, because I stg you've done this type of stuff on me before and I cannot realize if you were completely town. Youre going to think im just doing this because in the far past its what we did and its whats expected or whatever. Thats all fine.

Were not killing Ghug or Vecna today, because its a dumb decision regardless of all this. And it makes for a boring game.

Were not killing Kakarot today, because he's contending with Maniac for the most adorable person. This is pretty much universal, I dont think anyones gonna fight over it. This also means we cannot kill Maniac, because then Kaka's not gonna have competition, which is bad. Note; Kaka is going to think im buddying him over this, which is true to some extent, but its coming from the purest of places. (I do still think Kaka can pull this off as scum, and he feels very vibey-matched to last game, but he's doing too good off a job so im doing a Snowy on him).

I personally think Celaph should be off the table. I have a little bit of a fear he might be able to pull everything off in this game as scum, but I have those 3 points working against it that make me feel he's town in the overwhelming majority of cases. 1: The protection of lfischl, the late hammer of lfischl, Celaph knows thats gonna get him a lot of bad attention. 2: The RB adds to this, and would mean scum is playing the ultimate meme-game. I dont feel Celaph is that much of a meme'r (in before I put him upto it). 3: General post style, feels very towny. He can replicate this though. The walls when he felt he had to show it were pretty good imo. Seems too early to kill today, and scum apparently think he's a PR. They might be right.

Bona; Has been tunneling. Seems pure. Hasnt really tried to convince anyone that he is actually right, which concerns me a bit. Doesnt seem to have any nuance to his Celaph tunnel, which concerns me a bit as well. Still seems to be very certain, which is one of those back-brain thoughts "what if he's right". But im too cocky to give into those impure thoughts. Chaqa did his thing where he said Bona is 100% town, which probably means either Chaqa is town and correct, or Chaqa is scum buddying him. Probably means bona's town and he's not a good kill today.

Worcej; I keep forgetting he's even in this game. I have close to zero thoughts on him. Did I even mention him at all this game? Talk about easy consensus wagon that noone can really oppose.

Rdrivera; Has said some okay things. But most of them were agreeing with people. Most were praising people that were obvious universal townreads. Or takes like "I now scumread Ghug because he kept being susp of jamiet after the outburst". I think this is 100% inside Rdrivera's scumrange, although its by no means a given. Should be a serious contender for today. I know this is not an original take.

Bob: Nowhere near his prior game glory. Seems to do catchups where he mostly responds to people pairing him to Ghug. This is what I was talking about last game as 3p; he does this quite well, where he's active and saying sensible things. But theres no heart in it. Theres no chaos in it. Theres no obvious human error waffling in it. Its too concise, precise and it reeks of a urinal. He voted for Lfischl, claiming there were also reasons to think lfischl might be town. Perfect cover to later move off, or at least to get some doubts. Vote remained all day though. Am I 100% certain this guy is scum? Meh. His deviations in play could also just be rooted in caution, since he had an item last game that could basically clear him of being anything but 3p. I still feel this would be a good daykill today.

Chaqiet: Im still a little afraid I was being standard cocky Vecna townclearing him way too easily. Chaqa has been a solid solid dud thats playing exactly like his scumgame with no energy but saying just the right phrases where people go "aaaaaaw". I still think jamiet's play was mostly his towngame, but ive been burned before.

[Vecna]

i swear the quality of vecnas scumgame changes depending on what best fits the story he wants to tell at the time

Yes, it does. Its also unrealistic for me to keep moaning about how poor my scumgame is after I did pretty ok'ish in the last 3 games.

Its also unrealistic for Ghug to say last game that I have a very easy time replicating my exact towngame, while he is now claiming he saw through me every single time etc etc - and that because im not talking enough about my thoughts this game that im likely scum.

I was scumreading you when I died, Vec. That others failed miserably has no bearing on my perception of my own ability to read you.

I actually looked up your stances before because I did not remember it like that, and it seemed to me you were mostly disappointed I was scumreading you, and thus you were of the opinion all my takes were crap.

You were solidly sad I abandoned you on the jamiet wagon n all that. During N2 you said that I looked really good.

[Vecna]

If I just got punked by Ghug ill be pretty salty

[Vecna]

I dont know what it is about Chaqa that makes daykilling him seem like such an appealing proposition.

Every single game

[celaph]

Also, celaph is giving me the same vibes now as when he was battling rdr in lylo

Obvious difference being that I don't know the scum rn, so on that front I'm failing.

[celaph]

##vote Chaqa

I’m sure the Ghug wagon is scum driven right now and Chamie is our best kill.

@worceJ - I don’t necessarily agree with your assessment that Ghug and Chamie are on opposite sides, but if you believe that would you be willing to flip Chamie instead of Ghug?

@Bona - do you have any case against Ghug? What do you think of flipping Chamie instead?

@rdr - I don’t think you’re scum, but iirc you haven’t presented a good case for voting Ghug

I think Maniac's willingness to challenge a wagon as it was growing the way it was reflects well on him. Unless ghug is also scum, I wouldn't expect scum Maniac to push that hard in slowing the wagon down.

[Vecna]

Celaph, how come you appear so certain im town?

[celaph]

##vote Chaqa

I’m sure the Ghug wagon is scum driven right now and Chamie is our best kill.

@worceJ - I don’t necessarily agree with your assessment that Ghug and Chamie are on opposite sides, but if you believe that would you be willing to flip Chamie instead of Ghug?

@Bona - do you have any case against Ghug? What do you think of flipping Chamie instead?

@rdr - I don’t think you’re scum, but iirc you haven’t presented a good case for voting Ghug

I think calling it "scum driven" is quite unfair, but it being scum-preferred is maybe true.

Presumably the people who voted out Fishy are town. Celaph's RB claim is likely true. You and Bob should also be town.

My thinking with the ghug vote is twofold:

1. While reading, my ghug-scumdar was being pinged

2. He was on one of the main counterwagons to scum.

That said, knowing I am town, and Jamie/ghug voted together, this does take a slight turn toward maybe the other wagons being more the scum one(s).

So that would be some grouping of Vecna, Kakarot, worcej, rivera.

Worc and Rivera are on the wagon with me. Bona is 100% guaranteed town (TM).

Putting this all together...

We should vote Kak, worcej, or rivera.

Why not Vecna?

Scum Vecna wouldn't vote Bob here. It's too hard of a sell to the rest of town when scum wants easy kills.

##Vote Kakarroto

Can you speak more to your Bona read? I'm leaning that way, but I don't have the confidence that you seem to have.

[celaph]

@worcej have you read the game up since weekend is over? Do you have any more ideas/questions/theories?

I posted a TL;DR already but I town Maniac, celaph, and yourself via VCA from D1. If any of you were scum, you could've easily just planted a vote on my slot and flipped me over bussing the shark.

Why am I on this list? I was definitely pushing you over lfischl towards the end. It's certainly a poor look to have missed that, though it doesn't come off as that scummy. I wouldn't expect scum to be looking to give out free town points.

[celaph]

NAI imo - players usually (unless obscure time zone issues) check in on phase changes and make themselves available around that time.

Fair counterargument. Do you have an opinion on the fact that he didn't just check in, but also participated for the next 15 minutes? It bothers me a bit, but I still think your explanation covers it plenty.

I don't have a strong opinion either way. Like I said, people make the time to check in and may make enough time to comment.

I'll fess something up: I usually always check every phase change via the bot, even if I am busy, to see what happens so at least I know who died and what role they were.

I'll freely admit that I usually do something similar. It's part of why your counterargument was so strong. My thought above just occurred to me as I was writing the post and wasn't sure how I felt about it as I usually don't then go post, but wasn't sure how others behaved.

[celaph]

So, I've been thinking (no, please, sit down again, no need to flee the building). Why would mafia choose to nk fox?

1) He is a very good player and mafia is afraid of him.
2) He had someone in his reads/pushes that is mafia and they want to eliminate people voting for that person.
3) He had someone in his reads/pushes that is town and they want to miskill someone by obfuscating that.
4) Mafia read his behaviour as PR and prioritised him over others.
5) Mafia threw a coin or dice and it landed fox.
6) Mafia are a bunch of animal/furry hater.
7) More than one of the above. (please with further information)
8) Other than any of the above. (please with further information)
9) Kak you should stop you know exactly why we did it.

Other than that, I would also like to hear your ideas of why mafia would choose fox over yourself.

4 more than anything.

As a member of town, I was picking up 'Fox is a PR or scum' vibes based on how he was playing. He's fairly easy to read for me.

Can you point towards where you got those vibes? I'm curious what I missed.

[celaph]

this was saying kak wouldve looked awful if worcej was scum
which i stand by

ahhh, I misunderstood what you were saying. I agree scum worcej looks bad for Kak.

I disagree. Fox said he'd vote for either of worcej and lfischl, and I had expressed interest in a new flashwagon. Why would scum Kak make both of his teammates viable wagons?

My gut answer is that the desire for both worcej and lfischl wagons was already there with likely the numbers to at least make them strong candidates. But I'm also seeing that the argument is weaker than I thought.

Recent worcej activities make me inclined to think he's town so I suspect that this point is null.

[celaph]

Lfischl had two votes and some people interested in voting him, and I put the leaders at three instead of leaving Jamie at four. Why do I create that chaos when my teammate is high risk if I'm not going to jump onto my teammate?

id almost say common webdip wagonology. The new wagons end up getting on top much more often. Worcej was going to be a more realistic CW to lfischl than jamiet. The same way I jumped to kakkarot last game, to make it look better by pre-empting the likely outcome.

I got the impression Jamie was going to die without intervention.

Maybe if everyone was inactive, but I think that ultimately Jamie's wagon suffered because 3 of the 4 people on it (everyone except Maniac) voted on an reaction to a post without laying out a coherent argument against him. It felt that people wanted him gone because they were upset at him, not because they genuinely thought he was the scummiest.

[celaph]

GM NOTE
Jamie was replaced by me, he did not request a sub. I subbed him out rather than modkill.

Council has advised me that this information should be known.

Reinforces my read that he is scum.

Have GMs ever done this before?

My read of your earlier idea was that Jamie was scum because he planned his outbreak. This quite clearly suggests that he didn't plan it, at least didn't plan for this outcome. Can you clarify why this reinforces your opinion?

[celaph]

i dont believe town!celaph does that

I presume you're talking about my vote, but regardless, you're wrong. Do you want to elaborate why I wouldn't do that?

From a purely historic standpoint, scum!celaph made an earnest effort to appear town even up to his (almost but not) last seconds.

From a more behavioral standpoint, celaph as a person doesn't seem likely to go for that strategy - he's too calm and collected and analytical

My vote on lfischl was as well thought and analyzed as the time allowed. The wagon I wanted clearly wasn't going to win so I voted to ensure no ties, the second best option.