Mini Mafia 1018 - Race with the Devil [hidden]

[celaph]

I wonder if it were possible to find out what the likelihood of being killed D1 is in regards to how active players are, if they are new or experienced if they are popular or unpopular. I know we all pretend that we vote based on our reads, but is there some bias at play we perhaps need to address?

What are your biases? I suppose we could analyse how effective we are compared to chance to see if our biases are positive or negative. When I say 'we' I mean someone else.

I don't suppose you meant to quote yourself?

[Maniac]

well this thread is quite unremarkable
surprise start probably didnt help
anyone for a massclaim?

I'mma goon. Don't tell anyone.

Bells and whistles and flashing lights in my head doing overtime. I've done this as scum too many times to count. Scum points for celaph

[BobMcBob]

Oh hi just saw this. I'm off to dinner.

Sometimes I take mafia seriously and spend hours reading and re-reading trying to make sense of it. Then sometimes posts appear and I have a flashing lights and bells going off in my head. ^ is one such post. Trust the bells and whistles in my head but continue to ignore the little voices ##vote BobMcBob

i thought i was the only one who noticed for a while there

[Maniac]

I wonder if it were possible to find out what the likelihood of being killed D1 is in regards to how active players are, if they are new or experienced if they are popular or unpopular. I know we all pretend that we vote based on our reads, but is there some bias at play we perhaps need to address?

What are your biases? I suppose we could analyse how effective we are compared to chance to see if our biases are positive or negative. When I say 'we' I mean someone else.

I don't suppose you meant to quote yourself?

I often have conversations with myself. Nothing to see here.

[Maniac]

I wonder if it were possible to find out what the likelihood of being killed D1 is in regards to how active players are, if they are new or experienced if they are popular or unpopular. I know we all pretend that we vote based on our reads, but is there some bias at play we perhaps need to address?

There is absolutely bias in who I vote D1 and I suspect a number of players play similarly. Do you think that's a bad thing that we need to change?

^The post I was supposed to quote.

[Vecna]

I find it very unremarkable. He called out Bona for being weird and then just said what he expected. It doesn't look like he's taking Bona under his wing and I frankly don't know why he would; I suspect that scum Bona has done a better job surviving the early game than scum ghug in recent games.

Ghug won as scum on lylo in a game not so far away, so I don't see your point.

Ghug's also been caught really early in a pair of scum games. Meanwhile, Bona's only scum performance was quite stellar only to be stopped by a cop. My point is that I see no reason for ghug to try and guide Bona as a scum teammate.

Ghug always loves to interact a lot early game with his teammates though

[Vecna]

man I love active maniac.

Im gonna just townread the slot again, and take the risk im wrong.

I dont think ive ever scumread maniac.

[Vecna]

Vibe-o meter:

Celaph: Pretty good, unless both Bona and Ghug are town (ease of brushing the questions/arguements away seemed to go very smooth with little hesitation).

Maniac: Handsome, I believe it. (get in that pocket maniac, you know I got you)

Rdrivera: 2 posts I think? Nothing felt off about them really as of yet.

Bona: I genuinely felt bona was scum last game for acting so happy. He's doing it again. The caps argument is meh, but not really AI. middle of the road.

Jamiet: Too early to tell. Extreme scrutiny if ghug flips red.

Ghug: Not so great vibes.

BobMcBob: Not so great vibes

[celaph]

My most obvious bias is that I am usually anti-killing Vecna D1. Town Vecna tends to draw lots of NKs so I see no need to do mafia's job for them.

[Vecna]

dont worry, I can safely say thisll be one of those games where youre gonna have me around for a very short time.

Cherish it while itll last.

[Vecna]

not sure why you felt the need to spell that out though, everyone already knows how u feel about the topic.

Its not like im ever going to get daykilled on D1 regardless, even if people think im possibly scum.

[Vecna]

Ghug is totally going to read that and go <CHALLENGE ACCEPTED>

[celaph]

I wonder if it were possible to find out what the likelihood of being killed D1 is in regards to how active players are, if they are new or experienced if they are popular or unpopular. I know we all pretend that we vote based on our reads, but is there some bias at play we perhaps need to address?

There is absolutely bias in who I vote D1 and I suspect a number of players play similarly. Do you think that's a bad thing that we need to change?

What are your biases? I suppose we could analyse how effective we are compared to chance to see if our biases are positive or negative. When I say 'we' I mean someone else.

@Vecna, just fixed Maniac's quotes for him. This is what I was responding to with my comment about bias towards you.

[Maniac]

My most obvious bias is that I am usually anti-killing Vecna D1. Town Vecna tends to draw lots of NKs so I see no need to do mafia's job for them.

That seems to make sense. But does that then throw up a bias that if vecna isn't killed, you're more likely to kill him D2 and do you think mafia try and second guess town to get vecna or another experienced player killed. In effect are we setting up WIFOM and if so can that really be good?

[rdrivera2005]

I find it very unremarkable. He called out Bona for being weird and then just said what he expected. It doesn't look like he's taking Bona under his wing and I frankly don't know why he would; I suspect that scum Bona has done a better job surviving the early game than scum ghug in recent games.

Ghug won as scum on lylo in a game not so far away, so I don't see your point.

Ghug's also been caught really early in a pair of scum games. Meanwhile, Bona's only scum performance was quite stellar only to be stopped by a cop. My point is that I see no reason for ghug to try and guide Bona as a scum teammate.

I don't think I ever saw someone guide a scum teammate. What happens sometimes is scum buddying a town. Kgray does it extremely well, for example. Anyway, not usual for Ghug at any alignment, so it's probably what Vecna is pointing here.

[rdrivera2005]

not sure why you felt the need to spell that out though, everyone already knows how u feel about the topic.

Its not like im ever going to get daykilled on D1 regardless, even if people think im possibly scum.

I don't think I was ever killed on D1 (got some N1 killing, specially when Bozo is scum). And no, this is not a challenge

[Jamiet99uk]

I'd just like to place on record my enormous respect for Ghug.

Wow that's so kind of you. Thank you!

It's lovely when we all get along.

[Jamiet99uk]

I wonder if it were possible to find out what the likelihood of being killed D1 is in regards to how active players are...

I'll have a go at the first part of this.

From a sample of 15 games including 5 minis and 10 regular games:

M1010: D1 kill BunnGo - Highest poster with 218 posts.
M55: D1 kill Donny Dude - 3rd poster with 133 posts.
M56: D1 kill Macca573 - 9th poster with 42 posts.
M1012: D1 kill EMC^42 - Lowest poster with 5 posts.
M1013: D1 kill Flash2015 - 8th poster with 20 posts.
M57: D1 kill Flash2015 - 17th poster with 18 posts.
M1014: D1 kill Yoyoyozo - 4th poster with 47 posts.
M58: D1 kill BunnyGo - 2nd poster with 74 posts.
M1015: D1 kill Damo666 - 4th poster with 43 posts.
M60: D1 kill summit_fever - 19th poster with 29 posts.
M61: D1 kill Fluminator - 4th poster with 70 posts.
M62: D1 kill ND - 9th poster with 77 posts.
M63: D1 kill Maniac - 18th poster with 18 posts.
M64: D1 vote was a TIE between Lfischl (15th poster with 26 posts) and Celaph (9th poster with 45 posts)
M65: D1 kill was Chaqa - 17th poster with 20 posts.

Note that I skipped M59 in that sample because it had to be re-started as M60 due to a problem.

I have used BLUE to indicate a D1 where the person voted out was a high poster, and RED to indicate where they were a low poster (relative to the total amount of posting in that game).

[Jamiet99uk]

You can see from that sample that we appear to have a slight tendency towards D1 eliminating low posters. I think that is a trend we should seek to maintain. Low posters are harder to sort. Participation helps town in the long run.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Foxcastle
@Kakarroto
@worcej

The game has started. Come along and talk to us.