Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[damo666]

I believe there to be at least 2 scum in the group:

Johnny
Hamilton
Vecna
Dargo

I will explain why later in the day phase.

Is it later yet?

[foodcoats]

Regarding ghug, I am scumreading him and damo says he is voting ghug for voting for you. So the only person voting for ghug because he may be the Jester is Chaqa. Who do you mean by "non-current voters" and what relevance do they have to the matter at hand?

I agree that the Jester talk is derailing. If you are town, it would be helpful if you offered your reads in advance of EOD so we can discuss them and potentially come up with some better wagons. I get that you're looking for a reaction from darg, but it's darg, so it may not come.

Well I'm not in general a proponent of attempting to solve too early, as people tend to get attached to their solutions even while they know they shouldn't, but my current memos look something like this

Unsure

rdrivera2005
dargorygel
ghug

Scummy

Johnny Big Horse
Chaqa
bozotheclown

The rest in some higher upper stratosphere.

Uh, Johnny just seems a little off put I know not why.
Chaqa I had on the list before he came in gun blazing today, haven't really had a chance to re-evaluate since but I can certainly see the motive of a mafia player guaranteeing that a failed vote goes through even if it gets out jester

bozo... I'll unpack this later still digesting and I'm about to head out to lunch and don't want to really spent the time ISOing and coalescing my thoughts just yet

(yes, I realize all my voters are on there - it's a free country)

Thanks.

I don't know what you do as town if you're not attempting to solve, but, whatever.

[ghug]

Rousing myself to get in here; seems everyone has posted which is good.

There were some things that snowy posted in the God thread last game that I really took to heart. There are are 8 of us that are wholly uncertain about anything. We've been dropped into a "sea of uncertainty." So, making peace with that is key. With calmness and respect.

I am looking at going through the posts from later last night and this morning.

I think we're going to be guessing full-on shit-like today; if we kill the Jester, good. Who cares. They win and town can win too. Or am I stating the obvious that has already been stated?

Yep, I don't think anybody cares much whether Jester wins or not. What is important is to not dk town. I don't think snowy is scum so prima facie he is 89% town 11% Jester. Even if we generously up the Jester possibility to say 70% town 30% Jester he is clearly [imo] a poor dk. In fact I'm going to vote the Snowy voters until they move off.

##vote ghug

Why'd you pick me first?

[bozotheclown]

Have I ever screamed scum? How do you plan to sort me?

tomorrow? its a relatively common tactic to leave you and bozo for later if memory serves

You've come back from champs all weird and otherafiasitey and I don't think I'm here for it.

"otherafiasitey" is the Mongolian word for vole.

[damo666]

Rousing myself to get in here; seems everyone has posted which is good.

There were some things that snowy posted in the God thread last game that I really took to heart. There are are 8 of us that are wholly uncertain about anything. We've been dropped into a "sea of uncertainty." So, making peace with that is key. With calmness and respect.

I am looking at going through the posts from later last night and this morning.

I think we're going to be guessing full-on shit-like today; if we kill the Jester, good. Who cares. They win and town can win too. Or am I stating the obvious that has already been stated?

Yep, I don't think anybody cares much whether Jester wins or not. What is important is to not dk town. I don't think snowy is scum so prima facie he is 89% town 11% Jester. Even if we generously up the Jester possibility to say 70% town 30% Jester he is clearly [imo] a poor dk. In fact I'm going to vote the Snowy voters until they move off.

##vote ghug

Why'd you pick me first?

You were first to vote Snowy

[ghug]

I think the math checks out that killing the Jester day 1 is good. We ideally want to hit mafia, but the Jester makes endgame math and motivations fuzzy.

##Vote ghug

for now on the basis he is the Jester

I mean I am the jester but that's why you shouldn't kill me. Hoping the jester dies is fine. Not concerning ourselves with the possibility scummy people are trying to be scummy is fine. Intentionally wasting a miskill is bad.

[damo666]

okay all the vote options are bad and i don't like them
but because i have to, im gonna ##vote damo
shouldve done better maths idk its a very short d1
im off to bed now

I've been wondering about Bob since I read his first posts, and this last post, which he seems to be saying is his final one of the day, does not look townie at all.

Bob was mostly doing a lot of joking around (fair enough, D1). He made a list of reads that was very flubby and jokey (fair enough, I did this as town last game). But his "mentality" is different when he talks about the Jester mechanics. Much more "present." He doesn't seem to actually be interacting with other players (except when very much forced to, e.g. by Vecna) or terribly aware of/invested in the game, but he became much more participative and thoughtful in conversing about purely mechanical matters. I think that can be a scumtell.

Now with his vote, he's offered no reasons to scumread damo or explain why damo should be killed today, other than to say his math is bad... but damo always tries to come up with the numbers that will give town the marginal advantage, no matter how small that is. And damo's math isn't bad, it's technically correct, it's just that it's incredibly marginal and therefore probably not optimal for town at the moment.

Definitely have a scumlean on Bob now. (ghug isn't looking any better with his latest string of posts so I don't feel a need to move unless everyone wants to wagon Bob.)

Yep I scumlean Bob too. Definitely a wagon option (once I get enough people off Snowy).

[Johnny Big Horse]

but I don't like the word scum. It is degrading. I wasn't mafia last game and am not this game, but to be called scum does something bad to the psyche. Nobody wants to be called scum. I would rather be called asshole

(I know, now that I declared I am not scum, to some of you I must be scum. Don't go there. Day 1 is stupid. No point in trying to reason today. Someone will get eliminated, and it will probably be a mistake.)

I think if the community wants to revisit the word scum as a PC thing then you know, whatever, but you should know that there is no real intent to harm here. It's just a nice word to get it from the 3 syllable 'mafia' to the 1 syllablue 'scum'. By all means, call them mafia instead.

Not a PC thing. Just a psychicly damaging thing. But that is the nature of the game. I suppose. And it is good to get used to people thinking ill of you. Because some invariably do. I am not asking for a change. Just was making a comment.

[damo666]

I think the math checks out that killing the Jester day 1 is good. We ideally want to hit mafia, but the Jester makes endgame math and motivations fuzzy.

##Vote ghug

for now on the basis he is the Jester

I mean I am the jester but that's why you shouldn't kill me. Hoping the jester dies is fine. Not concerning ourselves with the possibility scummy people are trying to be scummy is fine. Intentionally wasting a miskill is bad.

[worcej]

##call GM

is it legal to hardclaim non-Jester?

I removed any rules regarding claims based on pre-game discussion and the comments about the flaws with the proposed rules.

[foodcoats]

I think the math checks out that killing the Jester day 1 is good. We ideally want to hit mafia, but the Jester makes endgame math and motivations fuzzy.

##Vote ghug

for now on the basis he is the Jester

I mean I am the jester but that's why you shouldn't kill me. Hoping the jester dies is fine. Not concerning ourselves with the possibility scummy people are trying to be scummy is fine. Intentionally wasting a miskill is bad.

So you don't want to win?

[ghug]

Sorry, I ran through the math on my own and didn't explain it in the thread, but I'll go back over it now.

Game starts at 8-3-1 spread on day 1.
Mafia has no incentive to nightkill the jester.

We have two lines:
1. Leave the jester alive
2. Kill the jester today

If we follow Line 1, assuming miskills and no doc saves:
On day 2, we are down to 6-3-1.
On day 3, we are down to 4-3-1.

At this point, the jester WANTS to get killed, and the mafia don't care if the Jester does, so it's essentially 4-4 since mafia and jester's interests are aligned, although they can't communicate it as such. Essentially, by keeping the Jester alive, Day 3 is a really good chance of town autoloss.

This does assume Jester stays alive somehow and can figure out a way to make this happen, but I think that's reasonably possible.

Line 2:
If we kill the Jester today, then:
On day 2, we are down to 7-3
On day 3, we are down to 5-3

Day 3 is now not nearly autoloss. We could either vote to try to make it 4-2 on day 4, or we could vote no kill to be at 4-3 on day 4.

Essentially, killing the Jester now is great for town.

The Jester should just claim and let us flip them, they can win and we can focus on mafia.

You're ignoring that the first scenario gives town two chances to kill scum before getting to day 3, whereas the second scenario only gives one, so they amount to roughly the same thing.

[worcej]

Interesting Facts - Vote Count Addition:

Did you know...

Every time a GM uses the bot for a vote count, peterlund gets $0.00?

Now you know...

snowy801 (4) ghug, dargorygel, bozotheclown, Johnny Big Horse
ghug (3) foodcoats, damo666, Chaqa
Chaqa (1) snowy801
dargorygel (1) Vecna
damo666 (1) BobMcBob

In ~4 hours, the subject of interesting facts may be about snow.

HB and rdr need to cast votes. All posting requirements are met.

[ghug]

Chaqa is presumably not the Jester.

From a tpov chance of Chaqa being scum is 3/10 whereas chance of any non-Chaqa being scum is 3/11.

Perhaps we should therefore vote Chaqa.

Is this sound?

No

[snowy801]

Thanks.

I don't know what you do as town if you're not attempting to solve, but, whatever.

You consider the problem.

Now this is a topic I'm particularly passionate about, which is a subset of problem solving techniques.

Some random article I pulled up:

https://hbr.org/2020/11/how-to-avoid-ru ... em-solving

Albert Einstein reportedly said that if he had an hour to solve a problem, he’d spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and five minutes thinking about solutions.

Obvious appeal to authority, but the article used it [it's not fully positive on the idea either if you want to take a look, but not necessary].

Attempting a "solution" is not the entirety of "solving": most of your efforts should be focused on properly framing the question, collecting relevant evidence and exhaustively considering your probability space.

The proper frame here appears to be:

1) Who is mafia
2) Who is jester
3) What is the best voting strategy to win this game wrt mafia/jester
4) Far distantly, how to best protect PRs/avoid outing

And of course, I don't really have to explain about scum hunting.

Usually when I accuse people early it's because I have a hunch and think trailing down that line of communication will result in better information, not to prosecute the target to the bitter end. Unfortunately, I don't particularly have such a target yet.

[damo666]

Chaqa is presumably not the Jester.

From a tpov chance of Chaqa being scum is 3/10 whereas chance of any non-Chaqa being scum is 3/11.

Perhaps we should therefore vote Chaqa.

Is this sound?

No

Great critique.

[snowy801]

(but yeah kinda off topic)

Hey ghug is jester! What do?
Let me think about that as I pick up my lunch

[ghug]

It is anti-town to claim VT.

Snowy must know this.

Snowy claimed VT.

Therefore Snowy wants to appear anti-town.

Therefore Snowy wants to attract votes.

Therefore Snowy is the Jester.

It's not anti-town to claim VT. It's default to claim VT.

What do you mean "it's default to claim VT?"

Everyone is constantly claiming VT. If I'm a PR, I'm saying I'm a VT until I have information to share or I'm on the block. If I'm scum, I'm saying I'm a VT until I'm on the block. If I'm VT, I might shade that I'm a PR, but if it comes to claiming, I'm a PR VT.

I hate when people try to argue that saying you're a VT at the start of the game means anything.

[snowy801]

ghug what would you say your motivation for

1) claiming (in my eyes jokingly) earlier
2) claiming (hard) now

And further, in light of Chaqa's arguments to axe you how do *you* think town should approach today and henceforth with this information?

[foodcoats]

Thanks.

I don't know what you do as town if you're not attempting to solve, but, whatever.

You consider the problem.

Now this is a topic I'm particularly passionate about, which is a subset of problem solving techniques.

Some random article I pulled up:

https://hbr.org/2020/11/how-to-avoid-ru ... em-solving

Albert Einstein reportedly said that if he had an hour to solve a problem, he’d spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and five minutes thinking about solutions.

Obvious appeal to authority, but the article used it [it's not fully positive on the idea either if you want to take a look, but not necessary].

Attempting a "solution" is not the entirety of "solving": most of your efforts should be focused on properly framing the question, collecting relevant evidence and exhaustively considering your probability space.

The proper frame here appears to be:

1) Who is mafia
2) Who is jester
3) What is the best voting strategy to win this game wrt mafia/jester
4) Far distantly, how to best protect PRs/avoid outing

And of course, I don't really have to explain about scum hunting.

Usually when I accuse people early it's because I have a hunch and think trailing down that line of communication will result in better information, not to prosecute the target to the bitter end. Unfortunately, I don't particularly have such a target yet.

Don't have the time to read that article at the moment, but that's a great point, and I am definitely trying to be more "open" this game - I know I personally have a tendency to tunnel.

Here's a question that's important to me. I have a "blindspot" right now with respect to rdr and JBH. I don't know what to think of them. What do you think I should do about that? What do you think of those players?