Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[foodcoats]

Bozo, I feel like your vote on snowy is almost testing for a reaction?

It was partially that, to see if ghug or dargorygel would move their vote, and partially because snowy claimed VT.

What's probably even more interesting about snowy's VT claim is that snowy claimed not to understand why it is bad for town to claim in that way. I'm not sure what to make of that yet.

[ghug]

jbh seems fun
dargo has been fine
chaqa is a bit eh, but i dont mind him
damo entry is very damo, but the lack of math is slightly disturbing
rdr is towncore
worcej probably scum

rdr is towncore??

[ghug]

Interesting. I don’t think that’s necessarily correct, but it certainly could be.

Regarding your theory that darg and ghug are bussing snowy, is there anything in the way they or snowy have acted in particular that makes you think this? Or is it just a gut feeling?

My theory is based on their collective inclination to bus early as scum (including snowy, who is voting for dargorygel).

This definitely applied to Ghug in the past. Do you think he'd continue doing this though with how often he's been called out for it?

As we discussed, this has never applied to me. I'm very bus-shy in general.

Please stop capitalizing my name

[foodcoats]

It is anti-town to claim VT.

Snowy must know this.

Snowy claimed VT.

Therefore Snowy wants to appear anti-town.

Therefore Snowy wants to attract votes.

Therefore Snowy is the Jester.

It's not anti-town to claim VT. It's default to claim VT.

What do you mean "it's default to claim VT?"

[BobMcBob]

Chaqa is presumably not the Jester.

From a tpov chance of Chaqa being scum is 3/10 whereas chance of any non-Chaqa being scum is 3/11.

Perhaps we should therefore vote Chaqa.

Is this sound?

everything except the conclusion
3/10 is minimally better than 3/11, at that point you may as well use actual evidence to decide your vote

[bozotheclown]

Sorry, I ran through the math on my own and didn't explain it in the thread, but I'll go back over it now.

Game starts at 8-3-1 spread on day 1.
Mafia has no incentive to nightkill the jester.

We have two lines:
1. Leave the jester alive
2. Kill the jester today

If we follow Line 1, assuming miskills and no doc saves:
On day 2, we are down to 6-3-1.
On day 3, we are down to 4-3-1.

At this point, the jester WANTS to get killed, and the mafia don't care if the Jester does, so it's essentially 4-4 since mafia and jester's interests are aligned, although they can't communicate it as such. Essentially, by keeping the Jester alive, Day 3 is a really good chance of town autoloss.

This does assume Jester stays alive somehow and can figure out a way to make this happen, but I think that's reasonably possible.

Line 2:
If we kill the Jester today, then:
On day 2, we are down to 7-3
On day 3, we are down to 5-3

Day 3 is now not nearly autoloss. We could either vote to try to make it 4-2 on day 4, or we could vote no kill to be at 4-3 on day 4.

Essentially, killing the Jester now is great for town.

The Jester should just claim and let us flip them, they can win and we can focus on mafia.

I think this is a good point about the jester, but it does not take into account that the mafia could accidentally NK the jester, which could give town another miskill.

[snowy801]

Has it occurred to you logical folk that ghug is not guaranteed or even likely to be scum?

I suggest we table this discussion until ghug has an opportunity to further comment on this matter.

I am willing to agree on principle that a guaranteed jester vote today is the best move, if they are willing to hard claim. I am not so willing to agree that guesswork to hit only jester is in any way superior to normal scum hunting.

Who among the logical folk has said ghug is guaranteed to be scum?

Why do you think ghug is not likely to be scum, other than the basic statistics? Are there reasons you townread ghug?

Not particularly, but that doesn't mean there's reason to vote him out either.

I am still waiting on darg to respond to some of my comments before I make my "day is ending" attempt to make my best guesses, but I would sooner vote for someone I scum read than someone who everyone is saying "well I guess he could be jester so we might as well vote him." If you scum read him that's an entirely different issue, but I feel that only a minority of ghug vote supporters (including non-current voters) do not in fact do this.

I would again in the absence of a hard claim sooner scum hunt, and am currently attempting to derail this train of thought because it becomes inexorable, as I saw nearly happen in the last game with JBH almost being voted out.

[damo666]

It is anti-town to claim VT.

Snowy must know this.

Snowy claimed VT.

Therefore Snowy wants to appear anti-town.

Therefore Snowy wants to attract votes.

Therefore Snowy is the Jester.

It's not anti-town to claim VT. It's default to claim VT.

It's anti town when we have unrevealed PRs. The default claim is "I am town".

[ghug]

I expect to be up until 7am making up for the incompetence of our 3rd party developers to make sure our new system is functional come opening

There is no chill here, only suffering

I'll be spending tomorrow unable to walk, but at least I don't have to work.

Just because snowy is sharing his nighttime activities doesnt mean this veil has to come off

You sound curious.

[ghug]

I gave an inclination to bus early as scum?

Historically speaking. I remember someone saying it was a good idea to vote for whoever you were voting for D1, because as town you are good at picking up on scum D1, and if you are scum, you are probably bussing. Or did you say that about yourself?

Since when dont you have encyclopedic knowledge about these specifics?

Going back to this now that I've read a little further. I'd expect Vecna to comment on me pointing out the same thing.

[snowy801]

Bozo, I feel like your vote on snowy is almost testing for a reaction?

It was partially that, to see if ghug or dargorygel would move their vote, and partially because snowy claimed VT.

What's probably even more interesting about snowy's VT claim is that snowy claimed not to understand why it is bad for town to claim in that way. I'm not sure what to make of that yet.

I did not claim to not know why damo thinks it is bad for town. I understand, simply disagree.

[ghug]

I took this comment and re-read the rules.

...if Jester winning does not prevent the rest from winning, literally why does the Jester role exist? For fun?

playing as the jester is a unique challenge
also the jester introduces a few extra mindgames into scumhunting
snowy not jester from this

The only statement I agree with here is the first.

But that's a single player experience. How does that impact the rest of the players?

Town does not have to actively avoid the jester vote, and thus though one might argue that accidentally voting out the jester might waste a day vote it's minimally different from a misvote.

Likewise, as scum does not have to press for the jester nk they can feel free to shoot literally as though the jester does not exist in the game.

This game can be played entirely as though the jester does not exist. I don't see the point. Not that saying anything now will change anything.

It'll become relevant if we reach an endgame scenario with the jester still alive. I largely agree that we shouldn't concern ourselves with them too much now, and just hope they die incidentally early on.

[bozotheclown]

Killing jester day1 might actually be not such a terrible side effect. Eliminate that pesky wifom "oh he's not actually scum, he just wanna die" train of logic thats undoubtedly to follow. And give the pr's gamesolve time.

I agree we should not worry about the jester. Although, it would be better for town if the mafia wasted a NK on him.

They’re more likely to hit one of us though, right? I think I’d like going into N1 as 8-3 as opposed to 7-3-1?

Yes, but the mafia could hit the jester, and we do not know who the jester is anyway. If the jester were to claim, it might be worth DKing him, because letting the game go to 4-3-1 would give the jester the opportunity to work out a deal with the mafia.

[BobMcBob]

okay all the vote options are bad and i don't like them
but because i have to, im gonna ##vote damo
shouldve done better maths idk its a very short d1
im off to bed now

[foodcoats]

Has it occurred to you logical folk that ghug is not guaranteed or even likely to be scum?

I suggest we table this discussion until ghug has an opportunity to further comment on this matter.

I am willing to agree on principle that a guaranteed jester vote today is the best move, if they are willing to hard claim. I am not so willing to agree that guesswork to hit only jester is in any way superior to normal scum hunting.

Who among the logical folk has said ghug is guaranteed to be scum?

Why do you think ghug is not likely to be scum, other than the basic statistics? Are there reasons you townread ghug?

Not particularly, but that doesn't mean there's reason to vote him out either.

I am still waiting on darg to respond to some of my comments before I make my "day is ending" attempt to make my best guesses, but I would sooner vote for someone I scum read than someone who everyone is saying "well I guess he could be jester so we might as well vote him." If you scum read him that's an entirely different issue, but I feel that only a minority of ghug vote supporters (including non-current voters) do not in fact do this.

I would again in the absence of a hard claim sooner scum hunt, and am currently attempting to derail this train of thought because it becomes inexorable, as I saw nearly happen in the last game with JBH almost being voted out.

Regarding ghug, I am scumreading him and damo says he is voting ghug for voting for you. So the only person voting for ghug because he may be the Jester is Chaqa. Who do you mean by "non-current voters" and what relevance do they have to the matter at hand?

I agree that the Jester talk is derailing. If you are town, it would be helpful if you offered your reads in advance of EOD so we can discuss them and potentially come up with some better wagons. I get that you're looking for a reaction from darg, but it's darg, so it may not come.

[ghug]

you get a pass because you arent screaming scum and if youre not screaming scum then youre an awful d1 kill, like bozo

Have I ever screamed scum? How do you plan to sort me?

tomorrow? its a relatively common tactic to leave you and bozo for later if memory serves

You've come back from champs all weird and otherafiasitey and I don't think I'm here for it.

[BobMcBob]

Have I ever screamed scum? How do you plan to sort me?

tomorrow? its a relatively common tactic to leave you and bozo for later if memory serves

You've come back from champs all weird and otherafiasitey and I don't think I'm here for it.

yeah ill grow back into this soon
i hope

[snowy801]

Regarding ghug, I am scumreading him and damo says he is voting ghug for voting for you. So the only person voting for ghug because he may be the Jester is Chaqa. Who do you mean by "non-current voters" and what relevance do they have to the matter at hand?

I agree that the Jester talk is derailing. If you are town, it would be helpful if you offered your reads in advance of EOD so we can discuss them and potentially come up with some better wagons. I get that you're looking for a reaction from darg, but it's darg, so it may not come.

Well I'm not in general a proponent of attempting to solve too early, as people tend to get attached to their solutions even while they know they shouldn't, but my current memos look something like this

Unsure

rdrivera2005
dargorygel
ghug

Scummy

Johnny Big Horse
Chaqa
bozotheclown

The rest in some higher upper stratosphere.

Uh, Johnny just seems a little off put I know not why.
Chaqa I had on the list before he came in gun blazing today, haven't really had a chance to re-evaluate since but I can certainly see the motive of a mafia player guaranteeing that a failed vote goes through even if it gets out jester

bozo... I'll unpack this later still digesting and I'm about to head out to lunch and don't want to really spent the time ISOing and coalescing my thoughts just yet

(yes, I realize all my voters are on there - it's a free country)

[ghug]

There is something I don't like about ghug. When I went to the bot to iso him, I was surprised to see he was the third highest poster. He has a number of insubstantial posts, which, to quote snowy, is not inherently a crime, but of those that are more substantial,

• he shades bozo for scumreading him without extensive evidence from past games, and talks about his own scum meta and why bozo's scumread of him doesn't fit his meta

• shades Bob for making the snowy wagon larger than it already was with a joke vote, while also remaining committed to the snowy wagon himself, while also saying he is complimenting snowy by being on his wagon (thus himself contributing to what he is effectively labelling a joke wagon)

• calls Chaqa scum but shades snowy for voting for Chaqa

Certainly I don't expect anyone to make a ton of sense on D1, but this looks quite wrong to me.

##VOTE ghug

Those are all good things...

[foodcoats]

okay all the vote options are bad and i don't like them
but because i have to, im gonna ##vote damo
shouldve done better maths idk its a very short d1
im off to bed now

I've been wondering about Bob since I read his first posts, and this last post, which he seems to be saying is his final one of the day, does not look townie at all.

Bob was mostly doing a lot of joking around (fair enough, D1). He made a list of reads that was very flubby and jokey (fair enough, I did this as town last game). But his "mentality" is different when he talks about the Jester mechanics. Much more "present." He doesn't seem to actually be interacting with other players (except when very much forced to, e.g. by Vecna) or terribly aware of/invested in the game, but he became much more participative and thoughtful in conversing about purely mechanical matters. I think that can be a scumtell.

Now with his vote, he's offered no reasons to scumread damo or explain why damo should be killed today, other than to say his math is bad... but damo always tries to come up with the numbers that will give town the marginal advantage, no matter how small that is. And damo's math isn't bad, it's technically correct, it's just that it's incredibly marginal and therefore probably not optimal for town at the moment.

Definitely have a scumlean on Bob now. (ghug isn't looking any better with his latest string of posts so I don't feel a need to move unless everyone wants to wagon Bob.)