M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[worcej]

Holding a shot last night to frame me.

Damo asked me to try to explain who precisely would do that, but now that I think about it, you're right that it isn't that risky at all. So I'm not sure what damo needs to be convinced of.

Makes me second guess clearing him of it a little

I read it as him asking about the whole series of night moves. You and Jamie were both widely townread and known to be exposed N2. Who's shooting JBH there?

if I were scum, and I had a free shot to use, why would I shoot JBH instead of you, Damo, rivera, worcej, celaph, EMC... basically anyone.

No offense to him, but you guys know I love to take out "good" players with nightkills.

So we're all good and JBH is bad?

[worcej]

OK but would you as scum have killed JBH rather than Chaqa or Jamie n2?

No. I'm just saying we shouldn't read into Chaqa not dying if he is town because no scum in their right mind kills him there.

Agree. If Chaqa is town the right move last night for scum is to let him alive as it's the easiest misskill.

The key question here is why scum shot JBH on N2. I can see two answers, the first is they didn't shot and JBH is scum and claimed to try to cover for Chaqa shot. The second is they want to frame Jamiet or Damo or just to spread chaos, which is a weak reasoning but possible.

Anyway, there is no mechanical clear or guilty at this point. So, we need to look who are playing a scum game and Chaqa is my top choice. That change to HB is not organic and not town motivated.

Agreed on all parts here.

[damo666]

OK but would you as scum have killed JBH rather than Chaqa or Jamie n2?

No. I'm just saying we shouldn't read into Chaqa not dying if he is town because no scum in their right mind kills him there.

My analysis is entirely based on the optimum play of scum to pick, and use, 3 guns.

It's been mentioned a few times that I disregarded scum withholding a gun, but I don't think scum have any advantage in withholding a gunshot when there are some easy choices in kills, such as JBH, and there would still be shade on Chaqa - it would be a foolish move to make.

But if Chaqa is town then scum using a gun n3 townclears 2 people, Chaqa and JBH, albeit one of these would be a victim. Is this not a case for scum holding fire n3?

[worcej]

Agree. If Chaqa is town the right move last night for scum is to let him alive as it's the easiest misskill.

The key question here is why scum shot JBH on N2. I can see two answers, the first is they didn't shot and JBH is scum and claimed to try to cover for Chaqa shot. The second is they want to frame Jamiet or Damo or just to spread chaos, which is a weak reasoning but possible.

Anyway, there is no mechanical clear or guilty at this point. So, we need to look who are playing a scum game and Chaqa is my top choice. That change to HB is not organic and not town motivated.

Your entire theory is based off of one vote, of me moving to vote for someone who I had been scumreading, and saying it isn't organic??

I'm sorry, it just doesn't make any sense.

Yeah, rd feels very inauthentic here.

My problem, though, is that it just makes way more sense as a bus. I'm trying to imagine a team without you, and I'm struggling.

Assume you're town. I know I'm town. If JBH is scum, we would have lost overnight, so be has to be town too. I'm 99% confident damo is town.

That leaves emc, bra'incel, worcej, rdr. I have reason to townread the first two and arguably the third, which means I've missed something, but I have to be missing on two people for you to be town, and I'm also inclined to think rd and worcej aren't scum together, which would probably mean emc and bra'incel, who are the two I townread the most.

On the flip side, if you're scum, JBH could be too, though I also townread him (giving you cover for the total gun count makes at least as much sense as scum actually shooting him), and then I only need one or two more scum for everything to make sense, likely rd plus me misreading someone else. It's a lift easier to imagine.

What am I missing?

If JBH is scum, how exactly would we have lost last night? I don't see how that's possible given the known shots, even assuming he was scum with a N3 gun, we'd just be @ LiLo instead of Milo.

[worcej]

No. I'm just saying we shouldn't read into Chaqa not dying if he is town because no scum in their right mind kills him there.

My analysis is entirely based on the optimum play of scum to pick, and use, 3 guns.

It's been mentioned a few times that I disregarded scum withholding a gun, but I don't think scum have any advantage in withholding a gunshot when there are some easy choices in kills, such as JBH, and there would still be shade on Chaqa - it would be a foolish move to make.

But if Chaqa is town then scum using a gun n3 townclears 2 people, Chaqa and JBH, albeit one of these would be a victim. Is this not a case for scum holding fire n3?

This is entirely why I strongly feel Chaqa is scum and is the third gunshot from the scum team.

[worcej]

Be nice if emc and celaph could actually post.

And Chaqa I thought this was your big posting day? You seem to have given up. This is more scum indicative than town indicative.

Yeah, I'm beginning to grow concerned one (or both) of them are town and their AFK is going to cost us this game.

[Chaqa]

If emc or Celaph doesn’t vote, it could be irrelevant what we do. Blegh.

[worcej]

What exactly have I done that's stupid?

Ending like this is scummy. You guys flip me and we lose, and I don't want to take the blame for you all never knowing how to read me.

FWIW, I consider miskilling you just as much losing to you as incorrectly not killing you. Dying after correctly scumreading you, on the other hand, is a pyrrhic victory.

The best thing you can do for yourself right now is try to solve the game. There's still plenty of day left.

How is miskilling me losing to me. What?

This doesn't sound like something town!Ghug would say

I also couldn't follow wtf ghug just said.

[worcej]

As there was a kill attempt on Snowy N1 and he was killed n2 I decided to give him a reread.

Having done so I see there is no way scumChaqa would condone a kill attempt on either night.

I'm doing a flippety floppety 180.

##unvote.

Why do you think that Chaqa wouldn't endorse killing snowy?

[worcej]

As there was a kill attempt on Snowy N1 and he was killed n2 I decided to give him a reread.

Having done so I see there is no way scumChaqa would condone a kill attempt on either night.

I'm doing a flippety floppety 180.

##unvote.

Could you explain me why?

Snowy was very very strongly reading Chaqa as town. Why would a scum team including a gunclaiming Chaqa try to kill him n1 and actually kill him n2?

Sure, but it was in D2 and that read can easily change as the rest of the game has gone on.

I think your assumption here is rough tbh.

[worcej]

If Chaqa is town then the scum team must be from {braincel, emc, ghug, rdr, worcej}.

Of these ghug has been on the kill every day (which if anything I take as a town indicator) and worcej has been off kill every day. The other 3 have been on the kill once only.

Intra voting between these 3 is as follows with * indicating EOD:

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3

b e none g
e none g r* g
g b w none none
r none e* none
w e* e* none

The only triple with no intra voting is brw which I think is so unlikely to have happened I am going to bin it. Now this means at least one of emc and ghug must be scum. As ghug has been on lead wagon everyday I will

##vote emc

As I don't think worcej can be scum with emc this leaves the following possible teams

beg
ber
egr

If ghug is town the scumteam is {brain emc rdr}.

@worcej I trust you will follow me.

This seems incredibly more risky when emc was an option earlier in the game.

FWIW, I am far more confident that Chaqa is scum over emc, so I'm very hesitant to follow you now. EMC could easily be town and doing his normal low engagement mode that's his status-quo.

[damo666]

Your entire theory is based off of one vote, of me moving to vote for someone who I had been scumreading, and saying it isn't organic??

I'm sorry, it just doesn't make any sense.

Yeah, rd feels very inauthentic here.

My problem, though, is that it just makes way more sense as a bus. I'm trying to imagine a team without you, and I'm struggling.

Assume you're town. I know I'm town. If JBH is scum, we would have lost overnight, so be has to be town too. I'm 99% confident damo is town.

That leaves emc, bra'incel, worcej, rdr. I have reason to townread the first two and arguably the third, which means I've missed something, but I have to be missing on two people for you to be town, and I'm also inclined to think rd and worcej aren't scum together, which would probably mean emc and bra'incel, who are the two I townread the most.

On the flip side, if you're scum, JBH could be too, though I also townread him (giving you cover for the total gun count makes at least as much sense as scum actually shooting him), and then I only need one or two more scum for everything to make sense, likely rd plus me misreading someone else. It's a lift easier to imagine.

What am I missing?

If JBH is scum, how exactly would we have lost last night? I don't see how that's possible given the known shots, even assuming he was scum with a N3 gun, we'd just be @ LiLo instead of Milo.

Suppose Chaqa town and JBH is scum with gun falsely claiming rose

n1 no scum gun, failed factional kill
n2 1 scum gun, 1 factional kill, 1 false rose claim
n3 2 scum guns left + factional kill

That's how we could have lost. Three n3 kills. But there was only 1 shot. Therefore Chaqatown & JBH scum is impossible.

There was either

no scum guns n3 => Chaqa is scum
or
scum held a gun n3 => Chaqa is town

The fact you are asking kind of implies you are town.

[rdrivera2005]

Your entire theory is based off of one vote, of me moving to vote for someone who I had been scumreading, and saying it isn't organic??

I'm sorry, it just doesn't make any sense.

Yeah, rd feels very inauthentic here.

My problem, though, is that it just makes way more sense as a bus. I'm trying to imagine a team without you, and I'm struggling.

Assume you're town. I know I'm town. If JBH is scum, we would have lost overnight, so be has to be town too. I'm 99% confident damo is town.

That leaves emc, bra'incel, worcej, rdr. I have reason to townread the first two and arguably the third, which means I've missed something, but I have to be missing on two people for you to be town, and I'm also inclined to think rd and worcej aren't scum together, which would probably mean emc and bra'incel, who are the two I townread the most.

On the flip side, if you're scum, JBH could be too, though I also townread him (giving you cover for the total gun count makes at least as much sense as scum actually shooting him), and then I only need one or two more scum for everything to make sense, likely rd plus me misreading someone else. It's a lift easier to imagine.

What am I missing?

If JBH is scum, how exactly would we have lost last night? I don't see how that's possible given the known shots, even assuming he was scum with a N3 gun, we'd just be @ LiLo instead of Milo.

We would have lost if JBH is scum with a gun and Chaqa is town (in this case scum would have two gunshots at N3 and a chance to win). This was the whole motivation for Damo's push on JBH yesterday, didn't you read it?

[rdrivera2005]

I keep crossposting with Damo, lol.

[ghug]

@ghug if Chaqa is town then JBH is town so if we are both town then there are only 4 people who can be scum {rdr, worcej, emc, braincel}. Now you say you cannot envisage an rdr worcej scumpair and I cannot envisage an emc worcej scumpair so it's impossible. The obvious solution [what you're missing] is Chaqa is scum.

So from mpov one of Chaqa or ghug must be scum. I think it is more likely to be Chaqa.

@ghug now that I've done a 180 on Chaqa cab you provide a counter to the above? I've got an idea but I'd rather see if you come up with the same before I state it.

I've said that if Chaqa's town, I'm reading multiple other things wrong, and I really don't know which those would be.

Why do you think Chaqa wouldn't kill snowy? Why do you think emc and worcej aren't teammates?

[ghug]

If Chaqa is town then the scum team must be from {braincel, emc, ghug, rdr, worcej}.

Of these ghug has been on the kill every day (which if anything I take as a town indicator) and worcej has been off kill every day. The other 3 have been on the kill once only.

Intra voting between these 3 is as follows with * indicating EOD:

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3

b e none g
e none g r* g
g b w none none
r none e* none
w e* e* none

The only triple with no intra voting is brw which I think is so unlikely to have happened I am going to bin it. Now this means at least one of emc and ghug must be scum. As ghug has been on lead wagon everyday I will

##vote emc

As I don't think worcej can be scum with emc this leaves the following possible teams

beg
ber
egr

If ghug is town the scumteam is {brain emc rdr}.

@worcej I trust you will follow me.

Maybe it's because I just woke up, but I don't understand this post.

[ghug]

@rdr vote emc?
@ghug vote emc?
@brain vote emc?
@Chaqa vote emc?
@JBH vote emc?

I honestly don't have a solid read on emc. I can see him being scum but I can also see Braincel or Worcej and I don't want to risk this now.
I am more confident on Chaqa being scum here.
If we are not going for Chaqa I would vote Ghug, I am pretty sure he is scum and this is the only thing that give me some doubts about Chaqa (Ghug defending him so hard after last game).

I'm defending him so hard?

[ghug]

Your entire theory is based off of one vote, of me moving to vote for someone who I had been scumreading, and saying it isn't organic??

I'm sorry, it just doesn't make any sense.

Yeah, rd feels very inauthentic here.

My problem, though, is that it just makes way more sense as a bus. I'm trying to imagine a team without you, and I'm struggling.

Assume you're town. I know I'm town. If JBH is scum, we would have lost overnight, so be has to be town too. I'm 99% confident damo is town.

That leaves emc, bra'incel, worcej, rdr. I have reason to townread the first two and arguably the third, which means I've missed something, but I have to be missing on two people for you to be town, and I'm also inclined to think rd and worcej aren't scum together, which would probably mean emc and bra'incel, who are the two I townread the most.

On the flip side, if you're scum, JBH could be too, though I also townread him (giving you cover for the total gun count makes at least as much sense as scum actually shooting him), and then I only need one or two more scum for everything to make sense, likely rd plus me misreading someone else. It's a lift easier to imagine.

What am I missing?

If JBH is scum, how exactly would we have lost last night? I don't see how that's possible given the known shots, even assuming he was scum with a N3 gun, we'd just be @ LiLo instead of Milo.

If JBH is scum and Chaqa is town, mafia only shot once the first two nights, and would have had two remaining N3, which with their factional kill would have given them a shot at winning immediately.

[damo666]

@ghug if Chaqa is town then JBH is town so if we are both town then there are only 4 people who can be scum {rdr, worcej, emc, braincel}. Now you say you cannot envisage an rdr worcej scumpair and I cannot envisage an emc worcej scumpair so it's impossible. The obvious solution [what you're missing] is Chaqa is scum.

So from mpov one of Chaqa or ghug must be scum. I think it is more likely to be Chaqa.

@ghug now that I've done a 180 on Chaqa cab you provide a counter to the above? I've got an idea but I'd rather see if you come up with the same before I state it.

I've said that if Chaqa's town, I'm reading multiple other things wrong, and I really don't know which those would be.

Why do you think Chaqa wouldn't kill snowy? Why do you think emc and worcej aren't teammates?

1. snowy was heavily townreading Chaqa
2. worcej lefta vote on emc knowing he wouldn't be back before EOD. Seems unnecessarily risky

[damo666]

If Chaqa is town then the scum team must be from {braincel, emc, ghug, rdr, worcej}.

Of these ghug has been on the kill every day (which if anything I take as a town indicator) and worcej has been off kill every day. The other 3 have been on the kill once only.

Intra voting between these 3 is as follows with * indicating EOD:

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3

b e none g
e none g r* g
g b w none none
r none e* none
w e* e* none

The only triple with no intra voting is brw which I think is so unlikely to have happened I am going to bin it. Now this means at least one of emc and ghug must be scum. As ghug has been on lead wagon everyday I will

##vote emc

As I don't think worcej can be scum with emc this leaves the following possible teams

beg
ber
egr

If ghug is town the scumteam is {brain emc rdr}.

@worcej I trust you will follow me.

Maybe it's because I just woke up, but I don't understand this post.

It's not formatted very well. I was basically analysing the possible scumteams assuming Chaqa and JBH both town.

The only really interesting facts are:

You are the only person consistently on the top wagon.
Worcej is the only person never on the top wagon.
{brain, rdr, worcej} is the only team where no bussing at any stage has taken place.

I'm not convinced by my own conclusions anyway!