M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[dargorygel]

A Guru Squirrel enters the room, observes the ‘detectives’ lounging around in striped pajamas and bunny slippers, and takes up the classic yoga position, “Thinking Squirrel.”

After humming a few, “oooommmms,” he opens his mouth and speaks around his big teeth.

“Nothing much has happened since the parrot last ‘spoke.’ Only one typological ineffective, “unvote,” and one ontologically ineffective, “unvote.”

But rather than further contemplate the meaning of “unvote,” Let us consider the nature of Time.

No one really knows what it is… but we know when we have lost some.

VOTE COUNT 4.03
Chaqa: (3) worcej, rdrivera2005, Johnny Big Horse (unless the GMs count his unvote)
worcej: (1) Chaqa
rdivera2005: (1) ghug

Chaqa has the highest tally.

Unvoted: damo666, and Johnny MAYBE

[damo666]

Tinfoil theory

{bb, JBH, worcej}

Let's all pick n2. Johnny, you pick a rose and one of us will shoot you making you a townclear and run all the way to the end and win it for us in your first game.

I can easily see this, but I still think it's more likely he wasn't shot at all if he is scum. Why choose N2 to do that? If he had a rose better use it in a night where there is only one gun shot so there is no doubt he had a rose.

That's nonsense. Explain to me how that would work.

[dargorygel]

and also...
Celaph has not posted nor voted.
celaph has not posted.

9.70 hours left before EoD.

[damo666]

As there was a kill attempt on Snowy N1 and he was killed n2 I decided to give him a reread.

Having done so I see there is no way scumChaqa would condone a kill attempt on either night.

I'm doing a flippety floppety 180.

##unvote.

Could you explain me why?

Snowy was very very strongly reading Chaqa as town. Why would a scum team including a gunclaiming Chaqa try to kill him n1 and actually kill him n2?

[damo666]

Tinfoil theory

{bb, JBH, worcej}

Let's all pick n2. Johnny, you pick a rose and one of us will shoot you making you a townclear and run all the way to the end and win it for us in your first game.

I can easily see this, but I still think it's more likely he wasn't shot at all if he is scum. Why choose N2 to do that? If he had a rose better use it in a night where there is only one gun shot so there is no doubt he had a rose.

That's nonsense. Explain to me how that would work.

I think I see. If a scumteam want to create a false town clear nx gun, ny rose, nz gun is more sensible as you simply use factional kill on ny on the roseholder.

Ok abandon this tinfoil theory and if it happens to be right, good luck scum.

[damo666]

Don't feel like I'm in the right.

This is celaph's last post, just before HamB flipped.

Could he have been deliberately feigning doubt?

[rdrivera2005]

Tinfoil theory

{bb, JBH, worcej}

Let's all pick n2. Johnny, you pick a rose and one of us will shoot you making you a townclear and run all the way to the end and win it for us in your first game.

I can easily see this, but I still think it's more likely he wasn't shot at all if he is scum. Why choose N2 to do that? If he had a rose better use it in a night where there is only one gun shot so there is no doubt he had a rose.

That's nonsense. Explain to me how that would work.

If you plan to have one scum to choose a rose so you can shoot him to clear him you won't do that in a night with another gun (plus the NK) as this doesn't clear him. In this case it's a lot more effective to use gun N1 and N2 and N3 you try to NK the scum with the rose. Doing it in a night with a NK plus a gunshot just made JBH to look suspicious.
What is nonsense on this reasoning?
If JBH is scum he probably just choose a gun and faked being shot.

[rdrivera2005]

As there was a kill attempt on Snowy N1 and he was killed n2 I decided to give him a reread.

Having done so I see there is no way scumChaqa would condone a kill attempt on either night.

I'm doing a flippety floppety 180.

##unvote.

Could you explain me why?

Snowy was very very strongly reading Chaqa as town. Why would a scum team including a gunclaiming Chaqa try to kill him n1 and actually kill him n2?

To freeze his reads? I was also townreading Chaqa at D1.

[rdrivera2005]

I can easily see this, but I still think it's more likely he wasn't shot at all if he is scum. Why choose N2 to do that? If he had a rose better use it in a night where there is only one gun shot so there is no doubt he had a rose.

That's nonsense. Explain to me how that would work.

I think I see. If a scumteam want to create a false town clear nx gun, ny rose, nz gun is more sensible as you simply use factional kill on ny on the roseholder.

Ok abandon this tinfoil theory and if it happens to be right, good luck scum.

I answered your other post before reading this, so just ignore it, you got my point.

[rdrivera2005]

I can easily see this, but I still think it's more likely he wasn't shot at all if he is scum. Why choose N2 to do that? If he had a rose better use it in a night where there is only one gun shot so there is no doubt he had a rose.

That's nonsense. Explain to me how that would work.

I think I see. If a scumteam want to create a false town clear nx gun, ny rose, nz gun is more sensible as you simply use factional kill on ny on the roseholder.

Ok abandon this tinfoil theory and if it happens to be right, good luck scum.

JBH as scum having a rose isn't likely (scum would have chosen 2 guns and a rose N2). JBH as scum with a gun and fake claiming make sense only if he is scum with Chaqa to justify one less shot, otherwise scum could just went for the win last night.

There is a possibility both are town and scum just gambled on getting him and Chaqa misskilled, but if this is the case we are royally screwed.

[rdrivera2005]

That's nonsense. Explain to me how that would work.

I think I see. If a scumteam want to create a false town clear nx gun, ny rose, nz gun is more sensible as you simply use factional kill on ny on the roseholder.

Ok abandon this tinfoil theory and if it happens to be right, good luck scum.

JBH as scum having a rose isn't likely (scum would have chosen 2 guns and a rose N2). JBH as scum with a gun and fake claiming make sense only if he is scum with Chaqa to justify one less shot, otherwise scum could just went for the win last night.

There is a possibility both are town and scum just gambled on getting him and Chaqa misskilled, but if this is the case we are royally screwed.

In fact, forget last paragraph. Scum can't know JBH had a rose N2, so they want to kill him or he is scum.

[damo666]

If Chaqa is town then the scum team must be from {braincel, emc, ghug, rdr, worcej}.

Of these ghug has been on the kill every day (which if anything I take as a town indicator) and worcej has been off kill every day. The other 3 have been on the kill once only.

Intra voting between these 3 is as follows with * indicating EOD:

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3

b e none g
e none g r* g
g b w none none
r none e* none
w e* e* none

The only triple with no intra voting is brw which I think is so unlikely to have happened I am going to bin it. Now this means at least one of emc and ghug must be scum. As ghug has been on lead wagon everyday I will

##vote emc

As I don't think worcej can be scum with emc this leaves the following possible teams

beg
ber
egr

If ghug is town the scumteam is {brain emc rdr}.

@worcej I trust you will follow me.

[damo666]

I think I see. If a scumteam want to create a false town clear nx gun, ny rose, nz gun is more sensible as you simply use factional kill on ny on the roseholder.

Ok abandon this tinfoil theory and if it happens to be right, good luck scum.

JBH as scum having a rose isn't likely (scum would have chosen 2 guns and a rose N2). JBH as scum with a gun and fake claiming make sense only if he is scum with Chaqa to justify one less shot, otherwise scum could just went for the win last night.

There is a possibility both are town and scum just gambled on getting him and Chaqa misskilled, but if this is the case we are royally screwed.

In fact, forget last paragraph. Scum can't know JBH had a rose N2, so they want to kill him or he is scum.

Aaaarrrggghhhh! Big towny points for rdr for this. Makes my last post wrong!

[damo666]

@rdr vote emc?
@ghug vote emc?
@brain vote emc?
@Chaqa vote emc?
@JBH vote emc?

[rdrivera2005]

@rdr vote emc?
@ghug vote emc?
@brain vote emc?
@Chaqa vote emc?
@JBH vote emc?

I honestly don't have a solid read on emc. I can see him being scum but I can also see Braincel or Worcej and I don't want to risk this now.
I am more confident on Chaqa being scum here.
If we are not going for Chaqa I would vote Ghug, I am pretty sure he is scum and this is the only thing that give me some doubts about Chaqa (Ghug defending him so hard after last game).

[Johnny Big Horse]

#UNVOTE

Interesting. Why.

Also note invalidity.

Why? I don't have a clue. I see nothing. The only one's that I remotely suspect are Rivera, Ghug and Chaqa, and BrainCELL.

##VOTE Cell

Tossing coins in the air now.

[Johnny Big Horse]

Tinfoil theory

{bb, JBH, worcej}

Let's all pick n2. Johnny, you pick a rose and one of us will shoot you making you a townclear and run all the way to the end and win it for us in your first game.

I can easily see this, but I still think it's more likely he wasn't shot at all if he is scum. Why choose N2 to do that? If he had a rose better use it in a night where there is only one gun shot so there is no doubt he had a rose.

Either I am dense, which is possible, or Rivera is speaking in circles here, also possible.

Let's see.

I can easily see this. (Yes me too. It is a good theory, actually, one I would latch onto.)

More likely he wasn't shot at all if he is scum. (Yes, I agree. Good thinking. But false. I am not arguing with your reasoning here. It is just wrong, but good reasoning.)

Why choose N2 to do that? If he had a rose better use it in a night where there is only one gun shot so there is no doubt he had a rose.

(This part I don't understand. "so there is no doubt he had a rose." Wait, this conflicts with the sentence above, which said he wasn't shot at all if he is scum. )

This is why I get so darned confused in this game. Many posts, like snowy's last well-worded but convoluted post, which nobody talks about, say two or three conflicting things. If I took halucinogens, maybe I could hold conflicting lines of thought at the same time and think they were all valid, but being sober, I can only think one thing is true at a time. And I think the game requires one answer, not many.

##VOTE Rivera

[Johnny Big Horse]

I can easily see this, but I still think it's more likely he wasn't shot at all if he is scum. Why choose N2 to do that? If he had a rose better use it in a night where there is only one gun shot so there is no doubt he had a rose.

That's nonsense. Explain to me how that would work.

If you plan to have one scum to choose a rose so you can shoot him to clear him you won't do that in a night with another gun (plus the NK) as this doesn't clear him. In this case it's a lot more effective to use gun N1 and N2 and N3 you try to NK the scum with the rose. Doing it in a night with a NK plus a gunshot just made JBH to look suspicious.
What is nonsense on this reasoning?
If JBH is scum he probably just choose a gun and faked being shot.

Agree. This would be the smartest way to do it

[Chaqa]

I’m around intermittently for the next two hours or so and then I probably will only be able to check in a few times, as we’re on the way to the park.

I don’t really want to vote Damo or Johnny, but otherwise I’m fine with anyone if it comes down to it since a chance of scum is better than a guaranteed loss.

I do think it’s strange braincel has disappeared

[worcej]

There's no way in hell I kill Chaqa last night if he's town and I'm scum, FWIW.

OK but would you as scum have killed JBH rather than Chaqa or Jamie n2?

No. I'm just saying we shouldn't read into Chaqa not dying if he is town because no scum in their right mind kills him there.

My analysis is entirely based on the optimum play of scum to pick, and use, 3 guns.

It's been mentioned a few times that I disregarded scum withholding a gun, but I don't think scum have any advantage in withholding a gunshot when there are some easy choices in kills, such as JBH, and there would still be shade on Chaqa - it would be a foolish move to make.