M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[dargorygel]

Celaph has replaced brainbomb.

Brain's wife is now expected to go into labor wednesday. He decided he needed to focus on family things.

Good choice, and good luck, brain! And Mrs. brain. And baby brain.

[ghug]

Whoa, congrats brain!

[dargorygel]

Trying again
celaph has replaced brainbomb

[ghug]

Trying again
celaph has replaced brainbomb

Try including his role.

[dargorygel]

It might need him to post. I'll try again in the morning.
Although...
celaph is replacing brainbomb

[Johnny Big Horse]

If I die tonight, my best guess at the mafia team is Chaqa, rivera, worcej, but I only feel confident about Chaqa and I won't be upset if you ignore my other two reads.

Half this town is scumbo-or-dumbo and I am having a lot of trouble sorting it out. If you feel the same way about me I don't blame you.

Why did they shoot him? Was he on to something?

##VOTE CHAQA

[Chaqa]

Okay, so here's what I'm thinking at the moment:
1. No mafia shot on night 1
2. Unless worcej or brain!celaph claims a gunshot, no town shot Night 2

This means there is one mafia gun left outstanding. If worc or brain!celaph shot on Night 2, there could be two guns outstanding. We know at most we have two guns, and one is mine, so if someone town did take a shot last night, we need to know if you shot JBH or Eden, because I think it's super relevant.

Assuming those were both mafia guns, then we can assume JBH is town, except in the world where mafia planned for JBH to claim if both Eden and Snowy died. If this is the case, mafia has two guns left, and if they get a mis-kill today, then tonight it's 6-3, and they can fire three shots at Jamie, myself, and another townie to go for a big win.

I think this might be the same point that Damo reached in his analysis, but it does admittedly all hinge on me being town. Since I know I'm town, I'm going to concur with Damo and say we have to flip JBH today to ensure we don't instant lose tonight.

##Vote Johnny Big Horse

[Chaqa]

There is also an outside possibility that Jamie is scum that took a N1 rose. I find this really unlikely, but if we find out after N3 that scum only took two guns, Jamie *could* be scum, though it's equally likely someone like ghug or brainbomb took a N1 rose as scum.

[ghug]

Okay, so here's what I'm thinking at the moment:
1. No mafia shot on night 1
2. Unless worcej or brain!celaph claims a gunshot, no town shot Night 2

This means there is one mafia gun left outstanding. If worc or brain!celaph shot on Night 2, there could be two guns outstanding. We know at most we have two guns, and one is mine, so if someone town did take a shot last night, we need to know if you shot JBH or Eden, because I think it's super relevant.

Assuming those were both mafia guns, then we can assume JBH is town, except in the world where mafia planned for JBH to claim if both Eden and Snowy died. If this is the case, mafia has two guns left, and if they get a mis-kill today, then tonight it's 6-3, and they can fire three shots at Jamie, myself, and another townie to go for a big win.

I think this might be the same point that Damo reached in his analysis, but it does admittedly all hinge on me being town. Since I know I'm town, I'm going to concur with Damo and say we have to flip JBH today to ensure we don't instant lose tonight.

##Vote Johnny Big Horse

There's been a lot of talk about how your tendency towards risky plays as scum. Why the mathematically safe play now? Were you scumreading Horseradish before?

[celaph]

Trying again
celaph has replaced brainbomb

Try including his role.

You are mafia and you chose a gun for N3. Your teammates are ghug, Chaqa, and Damo.

Does that help?

[celaph]

If I die tonight, my best guess at the mafia team is Chaqa, rivera, worcej, but I only feel confident about Chaqa and I won't be upset if you ignore my other two reads.

Half this town is scumbo-or-dumbo and I am having a lot of trouble sorting it out. If you feel the same way about me I don't blame you.

Why did they shoot him? Was he on to something?

##VOTE CHAQA

What is your read on Chaqa besides PE's comment?

[celaph]

Okay, so here's what I'm thinking at the moment:
1. No mafia shot on night 1
2. Unless worcej or brain!celaph claims a gunshot, no town shot Night 2

This means there is one mafia gun left outstanding. If worc or brain!celaph shot on Night 2, there could be two guns outstanding. We know at most we have two guns, and one is mine, so if someone town did take a shot last night, we need to know if you shot JBH or Eden, because I think it's super relevant.

Assuming those were both mafia guns, then we can assume JBH is town, except in the world where mafia planned for JBH to claim if both Eden and Snowy died. If this is the case, mafia has two guns left, and if they get a mis-kill today, then tonight it's 6-3, and they can fire three shots at Jamie, myself, and another townie to go for a big win.

I think this might be the same point that Damo reached in his analysis, but it does admittedly all hinge on me being town. Since I know I'm town, I'm going to concur with Damo and say we have to flip JBH today to ensure we don't instant lose tonight.

##Vote Johnny Big Horse

Can you say more about why Jamie is town for the new guy?

[ghug]

Trying again
celaph has replaced brainbomb

Try including his role.

You are mafia and you chose a gun for N3. Your teammates are ghug, Chaqa, and Damo.

Does that help?

Ooh, fake AF.

[celaph]

There is also an outside possibility that Jamie is scum that took a N1 rose. I find this really unlikely, but if we find out after N3 that scum only took two guns, Jamie *could* be scum, though it's equally likely someone like ghug or brainbomb took a N1 rose as scum.

A brief scan of EoN1 shows that you shot Jamie -- at least claimed to -- and he is very much not dead suggesting he is town. Am I missing anything?

[ghug]

Okay, so here's what I'm thinking at the moment:
1. No mafia shot on night 1
2. Unless worcej or brain!celaph claims a gunshot, no town shot Night 2

This means there is one mafia gun left outstanding. If worc or brain!celaph shot on Night 2, there could be two guns outstanding. We know at most we have two guns, and one is mine, so if someone town did take a shot last night, we need to know if you shot JBH or Eden, because I think it's super relevant.

Assuming those were both mafia guns, then we can assume JBH is town, except in the world where mafia planned for JBH to claim if both Eden and Snowy died. If this is the case, mafia has two guns left, and if they get a mis-kill today, then tonight it's 6-3, and they can fire three shots at Jamie, myself, and another townie to go for a big win.

I think this might be the same point that Damo reached in his analysis, but it does admittedly all hinge on me being town. Since I know I'm town, I'm going to concur with Damo and say we have to flip JBH today to ensure we don't instant lose tonight.

##Vote Johnny Big Horse

Can you say more about why Jamie is town for the new guy?

Brain claimed gun pregame.
Eden claimed rose pregame.
All but 0-2 town started with roses.
I claimed gun start of day 1.
Chaqa claimed gun shortly after me.
Bunch of people claimed roses.
Chaqa claimed he shot Jamie N1 and was foiled by a rose. Jamie corroborated.
Snowy Was also rose saved N1, as was rdrivera.
Eden and Snowy were killed N2.
Horsey claimed to have been saved by a rose.

[ghug]

There is also an outside possibility that Jamie is scum that took a N1 rose. I find this really unlikely, but if we find out after N3 that scum only took two guns, Jamie *could* be scum, though it's equally likely someone like ghug or brainbomb took a N1 rose as scum.

A brief scan of EoN1 shows that you shot Jamie -- at least claimed to -- and he is very much not dead suggesting he is town. Am I missing anything?

Why does that suggest Jamie's town?

[Chaqa]

Okay, so here's what I'm thinking at the moment:
1. No mafia shot on night 1
2. Unless worcej or brain!celaph claims a gunshot, no town shot Night 2

This means there is one mafia gun left outstanding. If worc or brain!celaph shot on Night 2, there could be two guns outstanding. We know at most we have two guns, and one is mine, so if someone town did take a shot last night, we need to know if you shot JBH or Eden, because I think it's super relevant.

Assuming those were both mafia guns, then we can assume JBH is town, except in the world where mafia planned for JBH to claim if both Eden and Snowy died. If this is the case, mafia has two guns left, and if they get a mis-kill today, then tonight it's 6-3, and they can fire three shots at Jamie, myself, and another townie to go for a big win.

I think this might be the same point that Damo reached in his analysis, but it does admittedly all hinge on me being town. Since I know I'm town, I'm going to concur with Damo and say we have to flip JBH today to ensure we don't instant lose tonight.

##Vote Johnny Big Horse

There's been a lot of talk about how your tendency towards risky plays as scum. Why the mathematically safe play now? Were you scumreading Horseradish before?

Well, I take risky plays as scum, but I'm not scum, so I'm taking the safe play.

I had very little of a read on JBH before. I kinda think he's town, but if he's scum we lose if we don't get him, so we're damned if we do, damned if we don't.

Hamilton is actually my strongest scumread atm. Rivera and Worc are vaguely scummy.

[Chaqa]

Okay, so here's what I'm thinking at the moment:
1. No mafia shot on night 1
2. Unless worcej or brain!celaph claims a gunshot, no town shot Night 2

This means there is one mafia gun left outstanding. If worc or brain!celaph shot on Night 2, there could be two guns outstanding. We know at most we have two guns, and one is mine, so if someone town did take a shot last night, we need to know if you shot JBH or Eden, because I think it's super relevant.

Assuming those were both mafia guns, then we can assume JBH is town, except in the world where mafia planned for JBH to claim if both Eden and Snowy died. If this is the case, mafia has two guns left, and if they get a mis-kill today, then tonight it's 6-3, and they can fire three shots at Jamie, myself, and another townie to go for a big win.

I think this might be the same point that Damo reached in his analysis, but it does admittedly all hinge on me being town. Since I know I'm town, I'm going to concur with Damo and say we have to flip JBH today to ensure we don't instant lose tonight.

##Vote Johnny Big Horse

Can you say more about why Jamie is town for the new guy?

I had a gun and shot Jamie on Night 1, but he survived due to a Rose, and I don't think scum takes roses.

[Chaqa]

Okay, so here's what I'm thinking at the moment:
1. No mafia shot on night 1
2. Unless worcej or brain!celaph claims a gunshot, no town shot Night 2

This means there is one mafia gun left outstanding. If worc or brain!celaph shot on Night 2, there could be two guns outstanding. We know at most we have two guns, and one is mine, so if someone town did take a shot last night, we need to know if you shot JBH or Eden, because I think it's super relevant.

Assuming those were both mafia guns, then we can assume JBH is town, except in the world where mafia planned for JBH to claim if both Eden and Snowy died. If this is the case, mafia has two guns left, and if they get a mis-kill today, then tonight it's 6-3, and they can fire three shots at Jamie, myself, and another townie to go for a big win.

I think this might be the same point that Damo reached in his analysis, but it does admittedly all hinge on me being town. Since I know I'm town, I'm going to concur with Damo and say we have to flip JBH today to ensure we don't instant lose tonight.

##Vote Johnny Big Horse

Can you say more about why Jamie is town for the new guy?

Brain claimed gun pregame.
Eden claimed rose pregame.
All but 0-2 town started with roses.
I claimed gun start of day 1.
Chaqa claimed gun shortly after me.
Bunch of people claimed roses.
Chaqa claimed he shot Jamie N1 and was foiled by a rose. Jamie corroborated.
Snowy Was also rose saved N1, as was rdrivera.
Eden and Snowy were killed N2.
Horsey claimed to have been saved by a rose.

Wait, *rivera* claimed N1 rose save? I missed that.

[ghug]

Can you say more about why Jamie is town for the new guy?

Brain claimed gun pregame.
Eden claimed rose pregame.
All but 0-2 town started with roses.
I claimed gun start of day 1.
Chaqa claimed gun shortly after me.
Bunch of people claimed roses.
Chaqa claimed he shot Jamie N1 and was foiled by a rose. Jamie corroborated.
Snowy Was also rose saved N1, as was rdrivera.
Eden and Snowy were killed N2.
Horsey claimed to have been saved by a rose.

Wait, *rivera* claimed N1 rose save? I missed that.

I'm shocked.