M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[President Eden]

It's hard to trust Chaqa being town based on any mechanical play that isn't a confirmed clear, but the more I think about this one, the less I think it makes sense for it to come from mafia.

I think I'm gonna do a rEaDs LiSt!1! and see where I end up, because I am coming up with somewhat convincing reasons to townread everybody I sussed on day 1

[President Eden]

tldr at the bottom

damo - I thought his outburst was the result of frustrated town, but if he'd been drinking then I guess that's actually NAI. Other than that I have no particular reason to read him any which way. I think I'm actually happy with this vote now.

ghug - He doesn't typically insistently come after me like this when he's mafia and I'm town. He's wrong about me in a way that suggests a lack of information or better target rather than trying to force a read through. I guess he's capable of faking this as mafia, but he doesn't normally bother; usually he's content to townread me but needle me and contain me until I go after the wrong person. I know that's a really self-centered reason to read him but it's what I got. He's probably town.

Jamie - Still don't think mafia takes n1 rose most of the time. He can really only be mafia with Chaqa, and I cannot imagine Jamie signing off on that play. Should be town.

worcej - I get it, work messed him up and he's on vacation. All legitimate confounding factors. But his investment level seems off in the way I'd expect mafia to be when town is going after each other all game. Not a hard accuse but I need to see more here.

brainbomb - Way too invested to be mafia. He always has fairly wild theories about what happened, but when he's mafia he tends to throw them out there and not dwell on them, and when he's town he latches on like a pit bull and doesn't let go. Town.

Macca - No confounding IRL issues I know about, and the level of effort and investment sharply declined compared to last game. The longer this goes on the more likely they're mafia.

rivera - Something about accusing brain pinged me the wrong way. It's kinda weak, but in M67 n3 when I called him out for lack of investment, he had this way of announcing his retaliatory accusation that sounds exactly like his accusation of brain here. Link to M67.

I could see the last mafia being a hardcore busser if it's the Sniper just trying to go with the flow of the town. That's probably how I'd play it. But if one of damo's teammates had decided to commit to bussing him hard then it doesn't really make sense for ghug to be twisting in the wind by himself trying to save damo.

And honestly, regardless of any navel-gazing about mafia psychology, you and Vec have some pretty underwhelming thread energy this game given that (1) y'all haven't died yet and (2) the thread has been really fun for town this game. I would have figured y'all would be more fired up to hunt when we're on such a roll and the mafia forgot to fearkill you

I really dislike this narrative you are pushing. It look like scum trying to set a miskill. Mafia killed 2 PRs first days, how they forgot to kill me? Also, I have been alive at milo last two games (and lost) so I don't think I am a usual NK (unless Bozo is playing, he NK me N1 twice).
I was pretty active D1 but last two days were just killing two sitting ducks and almost zero hunt so I don't get what you want me to do.
But I agree Vecna is off, I expected more after the parrot thing and he is just sitting back.

rivera advocated for johnny being shot because its bad for lilo

problem is 3 games ago rivera was against killing ifischl who was mostly town but could flip a person on death.

how are these comparable?

rivera is against policy kills on town. PERIOD

This is so untrue, I am starting to suspect you. I suggested policy kills more then once, on Sarah for example and other useless town.

Maybe he does this as town too, but there's a certain emphasis on THIS being the reason he NOW suspects you that comes off a bit forced.

To be honest he should be null based on the totality of his play, but that specific post caught my attention so he's in my sus pile.

Hamilton Brian - I think he's town but I can't really tell you why. There's a bit of a drop-off from him too, much like Macca, although far less pronounced. And when I read what he has posted it seems like he's trying to solve and working for it.

Chaqa - I don't think a mafia team of Chaqa + Jamie + X signs off on the play of Chaqa claiming gun and claiming to shoot Jamie who claims rose. Maybe they do if the third person is open-minded enough, but that type of flashy play isn't really Jamie's style, and in absence of that, I don't think Chaqa claims gun or announces his shot as mafia. I'm still wary of him but I think he probably should be town.

emc - Still not doing anything. I thought he was town because I thought the push on him was bad and was coming from potential bad actors, but I've consequently found reasons to townread all of them. TBH I mostly don't want to have derailed a day 1 kill on mafia... Increasingly looking like he may have to be mafia by POE.

snowy - Still clear town, too invested, clear direction to his posts even if I don't always agree.

Johnny Big Horse - Still seems town, he looks like a new player who's trying to slog through a morass of town yelling at each other and throwing out what he sees.


tldr
Don't Shoot: ghug, Jamie, brainbomb, Brian, Chaqa, snowy, Johnny
Shootable: damo, worcej, Macca, rivera, emc

[Hamilton Brian]

Looks like mafia did get to meet pregame and discuss the matter. I don’t want to put too much emphasis on it, but brainbomb didn’t seem to know that, it’s not something he would forget as mafia, and I doubt he went to the effort of intentionally weaving that into his response earlier. Not impossible, just unlikely. Towncred for you (not that it’s needed at this point).

Given mafia could coordinate pregame, that does raise the likelihood of some next-level shenanigans, but I feel like that would require a very specific mafia team that’s very open to wild fancy plays like that. Chaqa loves those, bb loves those, but bb is town here... I’m not really sure where that rabbit hole goes, and it still seems unlikely to me, but it is interesting.

Stashing the guns for n2/n3 is probably the best move for mafia. Kills = info, so you want to stash them as late as possible if you can. The risk is getting killed before using them. I feel like town probably takes a gun n1 in most cases for the same reason. That raises the likelihood of Chaqa being town, though it also makes sense that he would take it n1 given how frequently he’s killed off early, so I don’t think that should adjust things much.

I feel like this isn’t actually terribly useful yet, maybe I’ll revisit after I eat

Doing the drunk Friday afternoon catch-up but I kind of feel vindicated with that after I brought it up before, got challenged on it, yet here we are.

[Jamiet99uk]

##Vote Jamiet

Why? Jamiet was on my suspicious list anyway. And I really think the shooter, chaqa and one of the shot, Jamie, is mafia.

Like I said, I don't try to use "reasoning" on evidence that usually isn't really evidence, like some of you.

Example:
Dictatorships are our enemies
UAE is a dictatorship
therefore UAE is our enemy.

That may seem good reasoning, except, dictatorships are not our enemies. And they are allied with Western nations. Good reasoning based on bad premises is worthless. And this is what you guys are doing.

I am trying instead a statistical approach. I make add checks to people's names when things seem fishy. More checks means more likely. Is this the best way? Who knows? It is a probability approac. But you guys are using reason, and therefore a black and white approach, and where does it get you? You all have different conclusions. Makes me think your reason approach is worthless.

I am sure I pissed you all off, but I am right. This game should be played statistically, not based on reasoning.

You have reasons too. Whatever's the basis of your checkmarks.

I'd advise at least also keeping count of things that strike you as townie, because you're otherwise going to be biased towards active players.

Good point. But I gave check marks to all those who don't post a lot too. And I gave check marks to those who post way too much.

I am not suggesting people do what I do. You have your own games, your own styles, and you are experts, and I am the novice. But theoretically, if we all did it like me, all of our biases might cancel out some, and townies would be able to mostly make good choices for who to day kill.

If you are taking a "statistical approach" you should publish your working.

Saying you're deciding on the basis of some numbers is meaningless if you won't present those numbers.

You are lazy and scummy.

Present your data.
Show your working.

Or, go fuck yourself.

[Jamiet99uk]

Today I am willing to eliminate:

EMC
Macca
Johnny Big Balls

There's a high probability one or two of these is scum, and once they're gone, the adults can talk.

[Jamiet99uk]

I, for one, think I am being totally reasonable.

I'm willing to be patient with a new player, but when that new player decides to write a little essay about how they're just much better at using their brain than we are, and tells us all that they've got a wonderful approach to hunting scum based on numerical data.... well, that's fine.... but when they then refuse to share any of this numerical data with the class? THAT'S SCUMMY.

"I've come up with a new formula for finding scum but it's a secret and I'm not telling you what it is" is bullshit.

[Jamiet99uk]

##VOTE JOHNNY BIG DICK
##END

[ghug]

You have reasons too. Whatever's the basis of your checkmarks.

I'd advise at least also keeping count of things that strike you as townie, because you're otherwise going to be biased towards active players.

Good point. But I gave check marks to all those who don't post a lot too. And I gave check marks to those who post way too much.

I am not suggesting people do what I do. You have your own games, your own styles, and you are experts, and I am the novice. But theoretically, if we all did it like me, all of our biases might cancel out some, and townies would be able to mostly make good choices for who to day kill.

If you are taking a "statistical approach" you should publish your working.

Saying you're deciding on the basis of some numbers is meaningless if you won't present those numbers.

You are lazy and scummy.

Present your data.
Show your working.

Or, go fuck yourself.

Why can't we all just get along?

[Jamiet99uk]

Goodnight, peasants.

[Jamiet99uk]

Why can't we all just get along?

You throw insults at me regularly.

Answer your own question.

Night night, dickhead.

[ghug]

If I suggest Jamie's drunk, brainbomb will probably say we're scum together?

[ghug]

Hi Macca!

[TheMadMonarch]

I'm taking a lot of votes, unsurprisingly. I know that I generally play quite scummy games, even as town, and it seem M67 was just a fluke (I'm still not sure what I did right there).

An interesting factoid about me that I have hesitated to bring up is that I have actually played Mafia more than town. That's right, it is statistically the right choice to D1 me every time.

What this means in practice is that I have had a lot less experience than I appear to.


I am town, and it would cause a town death, but considering the way I am read (and its relation to last game), I understand why you can't trust me and want me gone.

Once I flip town, however, keep an eye on ghug. I can swear it's not OMGUS, I see he's just jumping on opportune moments.


I will continue to read and post, but please do not expect my skill to rapidly jump back up.

Have a wonderful day!

[brainbomb]

I would have said two years ago that I was not fun to play mafia with. But I have grown confident that people understand why I play this way. And even if it isnt their cup of tea they know to just ask me to let the game breathe once in a while. And I do that. I didnt talk for the first 18 hours of this day because I needed to work A, and I wanted to reread once the bot was back.

I formed my own offshoot community called the sock drawer because there were people on mu who liked me, they liked my style, they liked how I talk and play. There were people on webdip who liked me, they liked my style and they enjoyed when i play. There are people who get excited when I play, and when I run a game. Some get excited because I am not in it. Some get excited because I am. I am a part of this community and this is not aggrandizing to say that I am a culture maker of this forum.

I have no interest in a conversation post game where we can discuss if I have some personality disorder that really needs to change. Frankly I dont buy that. If its as simple as you dont like me and you dont wanna hear my contrarian ideas, and how I swim against the grain: cool. Good that you dont like that style. I dont pride myself on being agreeable.

I do however enjoy getting it right. and I will be absolutely damned if I am going to let someone slip right past me in plain sight doing something scummy, and be too feeble to bring it up. You can debate the merits of such theories and travel through a thread where i present the entire scumteam at some point and identify exactl;y the plot of the story. And Ii may let that entire plot escape me because I found a scent elsewhere.

This game is as much as joy for anyone else as it is for me It is a hunt its an adventure. My adventure is not always right. And my adventure is how I find a bad guy or two and die happily knowing I did my best effort.

My story does not impede anyone elses no matter how many posts I make, no matter how big the posts are. No matter how little I listen. My adventure is a stream of conscious thoughts about possibilities. I find that its much easier to hnt for scums story than it is to hunt for minutae in dialogues. Town can put their foot in their mouth, vote poorly, get reads wrong, and align themself with mafia easily. And they lose games doing so.

My hope is that everyone plays how they have fun. And my style of play may look like it takes up space, and fills pages and drowns out actua l things with rambling ideas. But quite often I can eventually catch alot of scum by just being myself.

if you feel you cant speak, or breatthe, or get aa word in, or be taken seriously; there is no amount of posts I can make that would ever prevent anyone from expressing thoughts, even on a minimal level.

[Johnny Big Horse]

I would have said two years ago that I was not fun to play mafia with. But I have grown confident that people understand why I play this way. And even if it isnt their cup of tea they know to just ask me to let the game breathe once in a while. And I do that. I didnt talk for the first 18 hours of this day because I needed to work A, and I wanted to reread once the bot was back.

I formed my own offshoot community called the sock drawer because there were people on mu who liked me, they liked my style, they liked how I talk and play. There were people on webdip who liked me, they liked my style and they enjoyed when i play. There are people who get excited when I play, and when I run a game. Some get excited because I am not in it. Some get excited because I am. I am a part of this community and this is not aggrandizing to say that I am a culture maker of this forum.

I have no interest in a conversation post game where we can discuss if I have some personality disorder that really needs to change. Frankly I dont buy that. If its as simple as you dont like me and you dont wanna hear my contrarian ideas, and how I swim against the grain: cool. Good that you dont like that style. I dont pride myself on being agreeable.

I do however enjoy getting it right. and I will be absolutely damned if I am going to let someone slip right past me in plain sight doing something scummy, and be too feeble to bring it up. You can debate the merits of such theories and travel through a thread where i present the entire scumteam at some point and identify exactl;y the plot of the story. And Ii may let that entire plot escape me because I found a scent elsewhere.

This game is as much as joy for anyone else as it is for me It is a hunt its an adventure. My adventure is not always right. And my adventure is how I find a bad guy or two and die happily knowing I did my best effort.

My story does not impede anyone elses no matter how many posts I make, no matter how big the posts are. No matter how little I listen. My adventure is a stream of conscious thoughts about possibilities. I find that its much easier to hnt for scums story than it is to hunt for minutae in dialogues. Town can put their foot in their mouth, vote poorly, get reads wrong, and align themself with mafia easily. And they lose games doing so.

My hope is that everyone plays how they have fun. And my style of play may look like it takes up space, and fills pages and drowns out actua l things with rambling ideas. But quite often I can eventually catch alot of scum by just being myself.

if you feel you cant speak, or breatthe, or get aa word in, or be taken seriously; there is no amount of posts I can make that would ever prevent anyone from expressing thoughts, even on a minimal level.

i am good with this

[brainbomb]

The fact that there is no actual discussion about damo being scum is a mystery too me.

I would think someone wouldve expressed reassons why he ISNT scum and the only person who seems to white knight damo is emc.

[ghug]

I'm taking a lot of votes, unsurprisingly. I know that I generally play quite scummy games, even as town, and it seem M67 was just a fluke (I'm still not sure what I did right there).

An interesting factoid about me that I have hesitated to bring up is that I have actually played Mafia more than town. That's right, it is statistically the right choice to D1 me every time.

What this means in practice is that I have had a lot less experience than I appear to.


I am town, and it would cause a town death, but considering the way I am read (and its relation to last game), I understand why you can't trust me and want me gone.

Once I flip town, however, keep an eye on ghug. I can swear it's not OMGUS, I see he's just jumping on opportune moments.


I will continue to read and post, but please do not expect my skill to rapidly jump back up.

Have a wonderful day!

The "I give up" hallway through the day is lame, whether it's a scum ploy to shed votes or town complacency.

[brainbomb]

I am inclined to beleive that macca is not scum but is struggling to replicate the quality of play from what was arguably their best game ever.

unfortunate side effect of setting your own bar too high

[ghug]

I am inclined to beleive that macca is not scum but is struggling to replicate the quality of play from what was arguably their best game ever.

unfortunate side effect of setting your own bar too high

Have they done anything to make you think they're town, or is it just a matter of you thinking three other people are scum?

[TheMadMonarch]

The fact that there is no actual discussion about damo being scum is a mystery too me.

I would think someone wouldve expressed reassons why he ISNT scum and the only person who seems to white knight damo is emc.

I've been mulling over him, but to me, ghug just seems him but worse.