M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[Chaqa]

Likewise, even if you think some combo of me and Jamie is scum, how are people thinking SNOWY is scum?

[snowy801]

I think everyone who has been posting has had a material chance to claim except the following:

e.m.c
macca
worcej

(just going by time last posted)

The three of you, if you have any claims to make please do so today. If not, we must proceed as though you three have no claims to make (whether people are hiding or not is a different issue, but at the very least there's no reason why someone who was *shot* to not claim).

Did I not soft it well enough? I picked a rose.

Wrong claim, I meant shots fired/blocked

[brainbomb]

@Johnny

if you were scum would your team take a rose and use factional kill on one of your own?

BB, why ask me? Don't worry, I don't suspect you any more for asking me.

But, yes, definitely. I don't know if Scum get to meet before they pick guns and roses, but it seems a perfect plan to have one scum shoot another scum who has a Rose. That is why I don't really believe in Jamiet's reasoning that the shooter and the two shot are town. If scum did as I would, and if it is possible to do it, then the shooter, I think chaqa khan, and one of the shot are scum, which would be Jamiet.

You dont know if scum get to meet before choosing guns or roses.

But if they talked night one and even one of them took a rose they could do that same mischeivous plan regardless of if they did it pregame or not.

right?

[brainbomb]

@Johnny do you think if you were scum youd wanna shoot someone?

[rdrivera2005]

I think everyone who has been posting has had a material chance to claim except the following:

e.m.c
macca
worcej

(just going by time last posted)

The three of you, if you have any claims to make please do so today. If not, we must proceed as though you three have no claims to make (whether people are hiding or not is a different issue, but at the very least there's no reason why someone who was *shot* to not claim).

Did I not soft it well enough? I picked a rose.

I don´t think it´s this kind of claim he was talking about Worcej, lol. Do you imagine someone claiming a gun at this point?

[worcej]

I'm sorry, but in what world is Jamie possible scum?

If I were scum with a gun, I wouldn't EVER waste it clearing a teammate. I mean, I might think about doing it, but I'm sure my teammates (especially Jamie, in this case) would shoot it down and call me dumb

As an example, look at the ridiculous strategy I wanted to do when I was scum with Bunny and Damo a few games back.

I don’t know - this setup strikes me as the opportunity for scum to try this move. Maybe I need to not be so weird with thought process, but I don’t clear Jamie or Snowy, but honestly I wasn’t highly scumming them anyways.

[worcej]

I think everyone who has been posting has had a material chance to claim except the following:

e.m.c
macca
worcej

(just going by time last posted)

The three of you, if you have any claims to make please do so today. If not, we must proceed as though you three have no claims to make (whether people are hiding or not is a different issue, but at the very least there's no reason why someone who was *shot* to not claim).

Did I not soft it well enough? I picked a rose.

I don´t think it´s this kind of claim he was talking about Worcej, lol. Do you imagine someone claiming a gun at this point?

No, but my point was I was trying to soft it.

[worcej]

I think everyone who has been posting has had a material chance to claim except the following:

e.m.c
macca
worcej

(just going by time last posted)

The three of you, if you have any claims to make please do so today. If not, we must proceed as though you three have no claims to make (whether people are hiding or not is a different issue, but at the very least there's no reason why someone who was *shot* to not claim).

Did I not soft it well enough? I picked a rose.

Wrong claim, I meant shots fired/blocked

Well, I was neither shot or NK’ed. My rose may or may not still be active.

[rdrivera2005]

I'm sorry, but in what world is Jamie possible scum?

If I were scum with a gun, I wouldn't EVER waste it clearing a teammate. I mean, I might think about doing it, but I'm sure my teammates (especially Jamie, in this case) would shoot it down and call me dumb

As an example, look at the ridiculous strategy I wanted to do when I was scum with Bunny and Damo a few games back.

I tend to agree. It´s really poor logic as it doesn´t clear Chaqa and if he flips scum then Jamiet also get a lot of pressure. Also, Jamiet is now a target for the NK and surviving next nights will raise a lot of eyebrows....
Not considering that if somehow Jamiet flips Mafia, then Chaqa will be instakilled.
It make a lot more sense for scum Chaqa to shoot a town Jamiet.

[President Eden]

ghug, I care because your read of me is uncharacteristic of what I know about your mafia play, and I’m confused by that, because talking to you also feels like talking to a brick wall. Your intransigence toward me feels like that of someone with a mafia agenda, but you don’t usually take this tack as mafia, so I want to figure it out.

Could someone who townreads ghug, townreads me, and that I don’t scumread please make some sense of ghug because I don’t get it. I am trying not to tunnel on him, but he’s making it hard when he keeps clearly grasping at straws and arguing semantics. When he’s mafia he usually just gives me the obvious townread to save the trouble of pretending to be suspicious, so this is out of character for his mafia play; but I cannot get through to him to save my life, and it increasingly feels like he has a vested interest in scumreading me no matter whether it’s true or false.

[brainbomb]

At least two shots occurred.
Jamie was shot
Snowy was shot

Jamie was shot by chaqa
Snowy was shot by factional

there was not a third shot.

TLDR
mafia did not take N1 guns and used a factional kill on snowy
Thus mafia has stashed guns for n2 or n3
Thus mafia believes they are good enough players to survive beyond N1

Mafia would self kill if they think that they can cause 3 deaths N2 or N3 and force a possible auto win.
Massclaiming roses and guns tells scum who is kill eligible
Damo wanted a mass claim
Snowy was shot by factional

Snowy is probably faking and was self shot by factional and there wont be time to elim him if its N3 and mafia autowins with 3 kills in one night.

[brainbomb]

scum taking 1 rose is a perfect way to get 1 town killed in POE who took a gun.

[President Eden]

At least two shots occurred.
Jamie was shot
Snowy was shot

Jamie was shot by chaqa
Snowy was shot by factional

there was not a third shot.

TLDR
mafia did not take N1 guns and used a factional kill on snowy
Thus mafia has stashed guns for n2 or n3
Thus mafia believes they are good enough players to survive beyond N1

Mafia would self kill if they think that they can cause 3 deaths N2 or N3 and force a possible auto win.
Massclaiming roses and guns tells scum who is kill eligible
Damo wanted a mass claim
Snowy was shot by factional

Snowy is probably faking and was self shot by factional and there wont be time to elim him if its N3 and mafia autowins with 3 kills in one night.

You lost me from self kill onward, but I agree with your premises to that point and I think this is overall a good post.

I need to check something before I riff off this.

[rdrivera2005]

ghug, I care because your read of me is uncharacteristic of what I know about your mafia play, and I’m confused by that, because talking to you also feels like talking to a brick wall. Your intransigence toward me feels like that of someone with a mafia agenda, but you don’t usually take this tack as mafia, so I want to figure it out.

Could someone who townreads ghug, townreads me, and that I don’t scumread please make some sense of ghug because I don’t get it. I am trying not to tunnel on him, but he’s making it hard when he keeps clearly grasping at straws and arguing semantics. When he’s mafia he usually just gives me the obvious townread to save the trouble of pretending to be suspicious, so this is out of character for his mafia play; but I cannot get through to him to save my life, and it increasingly feels like he has a vested interest in scumreading me no matter whether it’s true or false.

I confess I started to skip the messages between you two because they were incredibly long and boring and just go in circles. I have been scum with Ghug last game and lost to him as scum in the other one and I don´t get the feeling he is playing his scum game.
I understand some points he made about you, because I was scumreading you at some point D1, when I was also scumreading Food. I still have a small thing on my mind that you could be white knighting a town as scum, but your overall tone and effort look like town PE.
Anyway, I don´t think neither of you is a good choice for today DK, so I suggest maybe you both just forget the other a bit and look at other options.

[brainbomb]

I think damo and snowy have a teammate that is relatively obvious but I cant quite decide which of 4 ppl is the obvious one because they all seem too obvious to be the actual answer

[ghug]

##Vote Jamiet

Why? Jamiet was on my suspicious list anyway. And I really think the shooter, chaqa and one of the shot, Jamie, is mafia.

Like I said, I don't try to use "reasoning" on evidence that usually isn't really evidence, like some of you.

Example:
Dictatorships are our enemies
UAE is a dictatorship
therefore UAE is our enemy.

That may seem good reasoning, except, dictatorships are not our enemies. And they are allied with Western nations. Good reasoning based on bad premises is worthless. And this is what you guys are doing.

I am trying instead a statistical approach. I make add checks to people's names when things seem fishy. More checks means more likely. Is this the best way? Who knows? It is a probability approac. But you guys are using reason, and therefore a black and white approach, and where does it get you? You all have different conclusions. Makes me think your reason approach is worthless.

I am sure I pissed you all off, but I am right. This game should be played statistically, not based on reasoning.

You have reasons too. Whatever's the basis of your checkmarks.

I'd advise at least also keeping count of things that strike you as townie, because you're otherwise going to be biased towards active players.

[brainbomb]

Damo threatening me that im 99% not on point makes me think that My reasoning is very sound but that I had the wrong sequence of events for why. It seems like he outted himself and snowy in their fight. I feel very strongly of this because right before their fught snowy said scum would never be upset with me posting so much — and boom damo suddenly shows up radically infuriated that im posting so much. it felt quite deliberate and not coincidental

[ghug]

ghug, I care because your read of me is uncharacteristic of what I know about your mafia play, and I’m confused by that, because talking to you also feels like talking to a brick wall. Your intransigence toward me feels like that of someone with a mafia agenda, but you don’t usually take this tack as mafia, so I want to figure it out.

Could someone who townreads ghug, townreads me, and that I don’t scumread please make some sense of ghug because I don’t get it. I am trying not to tunnel on him, but he’s making it hard when he keeps clearly grasping at straws and arguing semantics. When he’s mafia he usually just gives me the obvious townread to save the trouble of pretending to be suspicious, so this is out of character for his mafia play; but I cannot get through to him to save my life, and it increasingly feels like he has a vested interest in scumreading me no matter whether it’s true or false.

No u

[President Eden]

Looks like mafia did get to meet pregame and discuss the matter. I don’t want to put too much emphasis on it, but brainbomb didn’t seem to know that, it’s not something he would forget as mafia, and I doubt he went to the effort of intentionally weaving that into his response earlier. Not impossible, just unlikely. Towncred for you (not that it’s needed at this point).

Given mafia could coordinate pregame, that does raise the likelihood of some next-level shenanigans, but I feel like that would require a very specific mafia team that’s very open to wild fancy plays like that. Chaqa loves those, bb loves those, but bb is town here... I’m not really sure where that rabbit hole goes, and it still seems unlikely to me, but it is interesting.

Stashing the guns for n2/n3 is probably the best move for mafia. Kills = info, so you want to stash them as late as possible if you can. The risk is getting killed before using them. I feel like town probably takes a gun n1 in most cases for the same reason. That raises the likelihood of Chaqa being town, though it also makes sense that he would take it n1 given how frequently he’s killed off early, so I don’t think that should adjust things much.

I feel like this isn’t actually terribly useful yet, maybe I’ll revisit after I eat

[ghug]

ghug, I care because your read of me is uncharacteristic of what I know about your mafia play, and I’m confused by that, because talking to you also feels like talking to a brick wall. Your intransigence toward me feels like that of someone with a mafia agenda, but you don’t usually take this tack as mafia, so I want to figure it out.

Could someone who townreads ghug, townreads me, and that I don’t scumread please make some sense of ghug because I don’t get it. I am trying not to tunnel on him, but he’s making it hard when he keeps clearly grasping at straws and arguing semantics. When he’s mafia he usually just gives me the obvious townread to save the trouble of pretending to be suspicious, so this is out of character for his mafia play; but I cannot get through to him to save my life, and it increasingly feels like he has a vested interest in scumreading me no matter whether it’s true or false.

No u

Like you're literally using the words I've been using to describe your play to describe mine lol.