MAFIA 67 OFFICIAL GAME THREAD —//—//— CURSE OF THE AZURE BONDS [hidden]

[rdrivera2005]

And now I have to work. Will try to get back to D3 and forward later or at night.

[rdrivera2005]

Wow, this have been a busy day here.

[rdrivera2005]

Well, continuing my Celaph analysis, the next days are not meaningful. D3 was only two posts with a hammer on Ghug and D4 was two posts with a hammer on lfischl.

D5 is where I think it became clear that Celaph was Vecna´s partner.

He started with that Vecna defense that I already pointed on other message.

Then he stated that Demon death reflects well on Vecna, which probably is the reason why he NKed Demon. I also think this could be the way he was subtly signaling to Vecna he is his partner.

WIFOM plays are certainly possible, but I think the RHK death actually looks good for Vecna. If we're assuming scum wants to kill the people that town townread, then RHK dying suggest that scum were bothered by Vecna's townread, giving townpoints to Vecna.

Celaph also shaded a bit HB, comparing his game to last game WW, shaded me and also kept gimix as an option, but did not commit to any voting. In fact, he was the last one to vote that day and only voted Vecna when he was running against emc that he was townreading before.

But even after voting Vecna he kept pushing for a wagon against me.

↑Hamilton Brian: "I don’t think mafia would be so passive at the end of the day. Vecna is low key and EMC , for being so close to a day k..."


Who do you prefer then? I suggested rdr and you seemed to shoot that down.

He didn't move to gimix at last minute, which I was reading as townie. But it's probably him playing conservative and avoiding the risk of getting caught like Ghug.

And D6 is just Vecna kill.

All things considered, I think Celaph played a good scum game, get to the end game with a well timed buss on Damo D1 and had a prepared case on me just after emc was dead. But the way he handle Vecna at D5 is the most obvious tell, he defended Vecna at start, waited to see if he can get a miskill, keeped his options open (exactly what Vecna accused me, so I think he knew Celaph was his partner) and jumped on the wagon when he has no other option.

##vote Celaph

[celaph]

As a debater, I bloody loved reading those posts. It has earned you an ##UNVOTE for now.

I've taken some of the things you've said, and had a couple thoughts. This is not a decision I make lightly.

What I want to know now, is what caused Vecna to target Gimix? How was he sure Gimix was actually newb town? A miss there would have cost him the game (with him a guaranteed out the next day). Where do you think the signaling was?

I could guess on any number of things regarding Gimix, but I expect that the honest answer is that Vecna just had a solid townread on him, nothing flashy.

[celaph]

@Macca, to call your attention to two other things that I've come across in reading.

The first is that PE looks a lot like a fear kill posting the following a couple hours before he was NK'd.

rivera and Vecna are the ones coming to mind for me. I'm trying not to do the obnoxious reductionist "you haven't been nk'd yet so you're mafia" bit, but as a pair of players who often get picked off early when they're town, I'm underwhelmed by what they've decided to do with their extended lease on life.

The second is that in hindsight rdr was leading us the exact opposite direction with his sniper susses.

The Sniper is even harder, I was betting on a newbie, considering the way Damo was signalling but yesterday's shot was pretty well timed, so not sure anymore.

I feel really interesting how you are bringing a dead town read from N3 that point me as scum to say PE was a fearkill and you just forgot about the two last NKs that were both townreading me and scumreading you at some level. If you aplly basic logical if makes a lot more sense to fearkill closer to milo then at N3.

You have a point, though fear killing someone works best when they are one of the few people sussing you for a number of reasons.

For one, by killing PE, you remove the vast majority of the sus that is being thrown on you and Vecna. Killing HB and EMC doesn't change the sus on me as substantially as others sus me as well. That makes fear killing a far less inviting proposition.

Secondly, because 3 of the last 4 (final 6 minus Vecna and me) sussed me, it's really easy for you to kill who you want and say that I was fearkilling. You can kill anyone besides you and I and then accuse me of killing them for that exact reason.

Side note: I think it's a stretch to say that HB scumread me when he died. I think he certainly townread you more, but N5 he didn't seem that convinced that I was scum with Vecna.

[rdrivera2005]

@Macca, to call your attention to two other things that I've come across in reading.

The first is that PE looks a lot like a fear kill posting the following a couple hours before he was NK'd.


The second is that in hindsight rdr was leading us the exact opposite direction with his sniper susses.

I feel really interesting how you are bringing a dead town read from N3 that point me as scum to say PE was a fearkill and you just forgot about the two last NKs that were both townreading me and scumreading you at some level. If you aplly basic logical if makes a lot more sense to fearkill closer to milo then at N3.

You have a point, though fear killing someone works best when they are one of the few people sussing you for a number of reasons.

For one, by killing PE, you remove the vast majority of the sus that is being thrown on you and Vecna. Killing HB and EMC doesn't change the sus on me as substantially as others sus me as well. That makes fear killing a far less inviting proposition.

Secondly, because 3 of the last 4 (final 6 minus Vecna and me) sussed me, it's really easy for you to kill who you want and say that I was fearkilling. You can kill anyone besides you and I and then accuse me of killing them for that exact reason.

Side note: I think it's a stretch to say that HB scumread me when he died. I think he certainly townread you more, but N5 he didn't seem that convinced that I was scum with Vecna.

Here I disagree with you. If you killed me or Macca instead of emc you will have to push an emc kill which will be against your reads earlier. Killing them you can push me that you was already sussing before. I feel like you have already a big case prepared on me.

On the other side if Macca or me were scum we just kill the other and just let emc vote you.

[celaph]

I'm writing up responses to rivera's comments at the moment, though have to go to class. Will respond later tonight.

[celaph]

You are again distorting things. I voted Vecna because he wasn´t NK and because I have more town vibes from the other players remaining and it was clear in my vote.

I interacted with Vecna and he started to shade me telling I was keeping my options open, which isn´t true. I guess this is him trying to identify his partner as the best scum play is to keep the options open to try to get a misskill. The way he was flip flopping around trying to get a new target solidified my scum read on him.

For one, you can't just say that I'm distorting things as an offhand remark and defense of your own comments. Point out where I am cherry picking quotes or misrepresenting people or otherwise actually distorting things. I quoted a large portion of your reads on Vecna, what in those quotes is distorted?

Rdr's second paragraph above has reasonable reasons for scumreading Vecna. That said, I have to ask, where were these reasons before this? He suggests that he was sus of Vecna after the latter shaded him, but he responded to Vecna's post in question and didn't mention any increase in sus at the time. His sus was still "most based on exclusion". This is also the first time he has mentioned sussing Vecna for the why he flip-flopped.

I would say that lack of supporting evidence, makes it look like he is just making up reasons to scumread Vecna after the fact, but I can go one better, he's just blatantly lying. On day 5 with roughly 7 hours to go, rdr wrote "I also kinda like Vecna tryng to shake things, unless he is scum with emc it gives him some towny points." So not only was his scumread not solidified by Vecna's flip flopping, he actually gave Vecna townpoints for it. His statement today is just a lie. Let's vote this man up while the gun is still smoking. Rdr, please tell me more about how I am the one distorting things here.

You think bussing a goon that was caught signalling doesn´t make sense, but bussing the Sniper that wasn´t an obvious DK and that will make 1 scum against 6 town makes sense?

Where are you getting that Damo was caught signalling from? Sure worcej sussed him for signalling, but when you defended him he had zero votes. That's a great time to defend someone as they are unlikely to flip, but have sus to clear them of.

I'll give it to you that bussing Vecna was a strategically brilliant move. There were no PR left to mess with things. Town could only afford 1 miskill. Flipping one of you looks really good for the other. And there are a set of widely townread people (HB and Macca) that can eat NKs to justify why you aren't being NK'd yourself. I know it's not the intuitive play, I never said it was, it happened regardless. If the narrative ends with you pushing out Vecna, you win. That's why I'm emphasizing the problems with your push including your blatant lies (see above).

Also, you openly defended Vecna at that start of the day:
[Snipped quotes of me]

I did in fact do that. I actually think Vecna looked pretty good day 5, a point on which Macca agreed. If you want to add to your list of quotes, note how I thought the Demon kill looked good for Vecna.

I started sussing you for your Vecna push that day for how little your read interacted with his play that day. Why do you think that Vecna would have killed Demon? Why didn't you engage in Vecna's counterargument that he was still alive because he was being sussed? Why didn't you comment on lfischl and the way that Vecna argued to save him?

Yes, I defended Vecna D5, I thought my previous read on him might be wrong. It doesn't seem like you even entertained the possibility that you were wrong.

Also, Vecna was voting you at day start, but at some point he just changed his mind and started to look for other targets, emc, me and gimix to see if any of them gets traction. I am pretty sure he identified you as his last partner. Vecna knew he won´t last to end game, so he just want to get a misskill to make his partner chances better and he achieved it.

In your first batch of posts after Vecna unvoted me, you said, "Celaph today seems a lot more towny, even suspecting me (or maybe because he is suspecting me)." If you think that something in my posts made Vecna think that I was his teammate, please point it out instead of just saying that it might exist. Otherwise, you have to contend with the fact that you admitted my behavior was substantially better which more than accounts for Vecna's change in vote.

[celaph]

I started the re-reading and this quote is interesting. Signaling to Sniper?

Considering Damo was also signaling it could be risky, but I don´t really know why scum want to signal to Vecna. I see a reason to signal to a newbie to avoid him shooting a scum, but Vecna know well how to play this role.

Why you did this specific post Celaph?

n
iteresting...

##VOTE Vecna

As Dragonbait, I know that Vecna's the Joat. Why do you want to kill him?

Don't remember exactly. Probably wanted a better read on Macca.

[celaph]

I think Celaph had made a great work bringing a really huge wall of text that is really hard to answer to. If you are a debater you problably can see he is trying to make this day to be about me defending myself and in a debate the more you got in the defensive the more you look guilty. He just made a narrative that fit his agenda on getting me sus. I will adress some of the points, that I think I didn´t before, but I prefer to invest my time re-reading.

So, if you have the time please do yourself a re-read of both me and him and if you have any question please adress me.

No. He listed arguments with cited reason. It was well structured and easy to follow. You're attacking his argument in the wrong way, and it's not helping your case.

Well, I am adressing his arguments and also re-reading. I hope you can see the difference from someone trying to win a debate by fitting a narrative like he was doing and someone that is actually telling the truth. He was pushing exactly things that can´t be answered, like me being away at D1 EOD and Eden N3 scum read on me. I feel like he has this already prepared to convince you to change your mind and vote me, and unfortunetely it seems to be working.

I'll concede that you can't answer to why PE sussed you, but the rest of this is rather weak.

I'm not pushing you for being away EoD1. I'm pushing you for knowing that you were going to be away EoD1 and still leaving your vote on a joke wagon without even trying to join an actual one. Your vote mattered as much as Gimix's that day and like Gimix, you actively chose to make it that way. You don't have to answer why you weren't here at EoD1, you do have to answer why you didn't vote meaningfully while you were here before EoD1. You presumably thought about who you were going to vote for so I can't see how this question is anywhere near unanswerable.

Side note: it's rather ironic to claim that you're telling the truth after you said that you sussed Vecna for flip flopping when you actually townread him for doing just that.

[celaph]

@Celaph

You were townreading Ghug and added him to your not kill list.

People we probably shouldn't kill today:
celaph
worcej
ghug
demon
Macca
rdr

Vecna was also added to that list btw, just added after the fact as I forgot about him.

It's certainly misrepresenting my list to say that I townreading ghug that early D1. When he (ghug) asked me about it, I wrote that "You and rdr are mostly on there for good player protection". And even though I continued saying that "you're both also playing how I would expect both of you to play as town", I did not say that I townread either of you. Particularly in the case of ghug, I know that him playing like he does as town is not itself a solid reason to townread him, which is why I didn't.

Here, you voted lfishcl to be the counter wagon to Perp and not Damo (both have 1 vote).

I voted lfischl because I scumread him while Damo was a null for me. I later got off lfischl because his wagon didn't go anywhere and got onto Damo because I hated the Chaqa wagon. I was still rather null on Damo, but his wagon was far less scummy than Chaqa's so I joined it.

You also made a 360 change on mind on your Ghug read. What made you change your mind here? This is exactly what I expect from a scum that see that goon Damo will go sooner or later and with the other scum alreading making an effort to start a town wagon (Chaqa).

Noting my point above about not particularly townreading ghug, it's not particularly correct to say that my read on him did a 180. More just that it went from null to very scummy quickly. That said, as to why my read changed, that's very easy: the comparison between M65 and M67 was really obvious. You too seemed to instantly draw the connection to M65, yet somehow managed to stop short of sussing ghug as I mentioned earlier.

[celaph]

Another quote I find interesting, trying to detach Ghug and Damo alignment.

Why can't I just be VT who believes his claim and thinks it's bad process to kill him even if you don't?

Or similarly why wouldn't scum ghug defend town Damo to get towncred later?

Overall I think Damo's rather sus, but I by no means want to kill an unCC'd PR at this stage. The risk reward is not worth it. That said, I don't think that ghug is tied to Damo in alignment/PR status simply by his defense of Damo. Ghug will look terrible if Damo flips scum, but I don't think it's a good idea to flip Damo yet so we can wait on it.

But after saying the killing and unCCd PR is a good play you just got convinced and decided to vote him after all. And with another hedgy statement about Ghug.

##vote Damo

I want to investigate this idea that ghug targeting Chaqa is NAI. I'm not sold that it is, but I'm not going to vote on it yet.

As to why I changed my mind on Damo, you'll note that I've already written about that today.

2. I disagree that you should never DK un-CC'd PR. I just think you need substantial evidence. In this case, that is HR's kill. I didn't understand the HR kill argument at first as evidenced here, here, and here. When I understood it, I voted Damo.

As for your ghug point, earlier in the D2 I called out ghug on the fact that he only D1 voted Chaqa as scum with no exceptions (at least since M57). Worcej, who has been around longer than I have, said that ghug's Chaqa push was NAI. I hadn't actually dug into the games and so while I didn't fully believe Worcej, I knew he had a better sense of context and didn't want to dismiss him out of hand. Hence my comment.

[celaph]

Regarding Rdr's analysis of my last days:

snipped

@rdr Feel free to ignore my earlier request asking where you were getting my signalling to Vecna from. Glad to see you address it yourself.

He elaborates on my D5 defense of Vecna which I've already discussed.

He says that I was signalling Vecna by killing Demon and then giving Vecna townpoints for it. I wasn't and frankly I find his suggested method rather absurd, though I obviously can't disprove it. I'll be surprised and more than a little amused if I find out later that Vecna thought I was his scummy buddy because of it.

After that he correctly identifies the fact that I did not have many townreads I was confident in.

And at the end he ties all his arguments into a complete packaged story. I've commented on the points here individually so I won't bother addressing them again here.

[celaph]

I feel really interesting how you are bringing a dead town read from N3 that point me as scum to say PE was a fearkill and you just forgot about the two last NKs that were both townreading me and scumreading you at some level. If you aplly basic logical if makes a lot more sense to fearkill closer to milo then at N3.

You have a point, though fear killing someone works best when they are one of the few people sussing you for a number of reasons.

For one, by killing PE, you remove the vast majority of the sus that is being thrown on you and Vecna. Killing HB and EMC doesn't change the sus on me as substantially as others sus me as well. That makes fear killing a far less inviting proposition.

Secondly, because 3 of the last 4 (final 6 minus Vecna and me) sussed me, it's really easy for you to kill who you want and say that I was fearkilling. You can kill anyone besides you and I and then accuse me of killing them for that exact reason.

Side note: I think it's a stretch to say that HB scumread me when he died. I think he certainly townread you more, but N5 he didn't seem that convinced that I was scum with Vecna.

Here I disagree with you. If you killed me or Macca instead of emc you will have to push an emc kill which will be against your reads earlier. Killing them you can push me that you was already sussing before. I feel like you have already a big case prepared on me.

On the other side if Macca or me were scum we just kill the other and just let emc vote you.

Your first paragraph may have a point, I honestly haven't given it much thought nor am I particularly interested in doing so.

I also don't think that EMC voting for me was a done deal despite his sus. He gets to his conclusion by PoE and ends it with a question mark. He certainly leans me, but there is nothing there to suggest that he is certain in his ways. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd guess that you were concerned with the fact that I was defending EMC against the miskill.

[TheMadMonarch]

No. He listed arguments with cited reason. It was well structured and easy to follow. You're attacking his argument in the wrong way, and it's not helping your case.

Well, I am adressing his arguments and also re-reading. I hope you can see the difference from someone trying to win a debate by fitting a narrative like he was doing and someone that is actually telling the truth. He was pushing exactly things that can´t be answered, like me being away at D1 EOD and Eden N3 scum read on me. I feel like he has this already prepared to convince you to change your mind and vote me, and unfortunetely it seems to be working.

I'll concede that you can't answer to why PE sussed you, but the rest of this is rather weak.

I'm not pushing you for being away EoD1. I'm pushing you for knowing that you were going to be away EoD1 and still leaving your vote on a joke wagon without even trying to join an actual one. Your vote mattered as much as Gimix's that day and like Gimix, you actively chose to make it that way. You don't have to answer why you weren't here at EoD1, you do have to answer why you didn't vote meaningfully while you were here before EoD1. You presumably thought about who you were going to vote for so I can't see how this question is anywhere near unanswerable.

Side note: it's rather ironic to claim that you're telling the truth after you said that you sussed Vecna for flip flopping when you actually townread him for doing just that.

@rdr, please respond to this especially.

[celaph]

@macca, if you're scum here, gg well played. End this game.
##vote rdr
##end

Here is the summary on rdr, feel free to go ahead and question as you like.

1. His D1 vote history, or more accurately, the lack of said voting history, is incredibly scummy.
2. His push on ghug only came after town had built up a sizable wagon on ghug while I sussed ghug far earlier.
3. He had a really well played bus on Vecna. The key tells here are that:
   1. His read on Vecna was forced and showed little indication that he actually scumread Vecna.
   2. His read on Vecna didn't change throughout D5 despite Vecna looking considerably better that day, nor did he even engage in the counterarguments against Vecna. Despite his poor reasons, he was confident in his choice.
4. When I pushed him on why he voted Vecna, he blantantly lied saying that he sussed Vecna for flip flopping when at the time he had townread him for that same action.

[TheMadMonarch]

@macca, if you're scum here, gg well played. End this game.
##vote rdr
##end

Here is the summary on rdr, feel free to go ahead and question as you like.

1. His D1 vote history, or more accurately, the lack of said voting history, is incredibly scummy.
2. His push on ghug only came after town had built up a sizable wagon on ghug while I sussed ghug far earlier.
3. He had a really well played bus on Vecna. The key tells here are that:
   1. His read on Vecna was forced and showed little indication that he actually scumread Vecna.
   2. His read on Vecna didn't change throughout D5 despite Vecna looking considerably better that day, nor did he even engage in the counterarguments against Vecna. Despite his poor reasons, he was confident in his choice.
4. When I pushed him on why he voted Vecna, he blantantly lied saying that he sussed Vecna for flip flopping when at the time he had townread him for that same action.

I appreciate the endvote, but I'd like to give rdr a chance to respond.

[rdrivera2005]

Well, I am adressing his arguments and also re-reading. I hope you can see the difference from someone trying to win a debate by fitting a narrative like he was doing and someone that is actually telling the truth. He was pushing exactly things that can´t be answered, like me being away at D1 EOD and Eden N3 scum read on me. I feel like he has this already prepared to convince you to change your mind and vote me, and unfortunetely it seems to be working.

I'll concede that you can't answer to why PE sussed you, but the rest of this is rather weak.

I'm not pushing you for being away EoD1. I'm pushing you for knowing that you were going to be away EoD1 and still leaving your vote on a joke wagon without even trying to join an actual one. Your vote mattered as much as Gimix's that day and like Gimix, you actively chose to make it that way. You don't have to answer why you weren't here at EoD1, you do have to answer why you didn't vote meaningfully while you were here before EoD1. You presumably thought about who you were going to vote for so I can't see how this question is anywhere near unanswerable.

Side note: it's rather ironic to claim that you're telling the truth after you said that you sussed Vecna for flip flopping when you actually townread him for doing just that.

@rdr, please respond to this especially.

I will start answering this:

I'm not pushing you for being away EoD1. I'm pushing you for knowing that you were going to be away EoD1 and still leaving your vote on a joke wagon without even trying to join an actual one.

This is the kind of misrepresentation Celaph is doing. And he is good at it.

I said with 3 hours to EOD that I was catching up and that i might lose EOD. There are two distinct things. I was expecting to be able to cathch up and give some meaningfull vote before leaving. I work until 1 hour before EOD so sometimes I miss it when I am on traffic to go home or when I have to take my daughter on his dance class. And I usually warn about this so people know I won´t be around at EOD, just check any of the past games.

By the way I am catching up, but I am in a tight schedule today at work and will probably miss EOD.

After this I kept reading and made more 5 posts and then my boss caled me for a really big meeting with the regional coordinators that I was expecting to end at regular time, but it took long. I just can´t use my phone there and missed the rest of the day.

My first post on the night was to explain this:

Well, first of all, sorry for not being around at EOD. I get stuck at a work meeting (mainly virtual, but I was on site with my boss) and just can't use my phone.

Second, why on Earth you miskilled Chaqa again on D1 after M65? When Chaqa is a wagon on D1 he is town, you should know better.

Now, I will read the 15 pages I am behind.

So, taking all this ouf of contect to say: His D1 vote history, or more accurately, the lack of said voting history, is incredibly scummy. is completelly misrepresent what happened.

Also, how he can say staying out of the main wagons is incredibly scummy and at same time townread you enough to end vote me when you also ended D1 in a vanity wagon (himself).

Now about the bold part. This is another misrepresentation of Celaph. I started the day voting Vecna based basically on POE and him being alive. I made this clear, over and over. I have a post that I don´t remember if Celaph quoted or not where I say that I was torn between Vecna, emc and Celaph because I want to go after a Damo D1 voter.
The comment about shaking things up was with 7 hours to go and references Vecna posting a lot more that day then any other day before, including a big wall of text. That comment have nothing to do with flip flopping votes. This is what I call cherrypicking.
What made my scum read solidify on Vecna where this two posts:

I can see the rationale in going EMC. im not convinced he'll flip scum whatsoever, but its definitely possible.

And I have a feeling he's not going to survive to the end of the game regardless....

ill keep trying to check in, but might just forget about this with it being saturday evening n all.

##vote emc

makes me a bit sad

If you are town you just don´t jump on your counterwagon that you think is town with more then 2 hours to EOD. This is what I meant whip flip flopping and I was around at EOD 5 where I could have easily jumped to emc wagon but stayed on Vecna.

Also, Celaph didn´t adressed why he openly defended Vecna D5, but didn´t cast any vote at all this day until closer to EOD, when he jumped into Vecna just because he can´t vote emc, but hedge at the vote and still tried to get a wagon going on me.

##vote Vecna

I don't love this, but I think I prefer it to an EMC kill for the reasons I said earlier. I'm also down for an Rdr wagon and a little weirded out that it seems that almost no one suspects rdr.

[rdrivera2005]

@Macca

So, I think I have adressed the points Celaph made and I also adressed why I think Celaph is scum. The way he defended Vecna D5 and didn´t vote until last minute isn´t town play and he didn´t adress this. Also, he didn´t adress why HB and emc where the last NKs, but tried to bring back a PE NK from N3 which is also a pretty clear indication of scum Celaph here.

Considering Celaph already end voted and the game is stil going, you are clear. Anyway, you know you will be the deciding vote here. I trust you can see what´s happening here. I don´t want to lose in milo again.

##vote Celaph
##vote end

[TheMadMonarch]

Well. The moment of truth.

##VOTE Celaph
##END